whi observational study opening comments moderator: teri manolio, md, phd national heart, lung, and...
TRANSCRIPT
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WHI Observational StudyOpening Comments
Moderator:Teri Manolio, MD, PhDNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute
Senior Advisor to the Director for Population Genomics,
National Human Genome Research Institute
Observational
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Value of Large Cohort Studies: 25 Year CVD Mortality for MRFIT Screenees
Observational
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Serum Cholesterol(mg/dl)
JNC-VIIBP Category
CVD Mortality/ 10,000 py
Courtesy J Neaton and J Cutler
353,340 men 36,616 deaths
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Characteristics of an Ideal Cohort Study
• Size matters • Representative sample, high response rate• Diverse in geography, socioeconomic status,
race/ethnicity• Extensive, standardized, reproducible
characterization at entry• Repeated interim measures to assess change in
exposures and disease status and to add new exposure measures
• Comprehensive, standardized assessment of outcomes
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Importance of Data Sharing
• Long-term epidemiologic studies generally collect more data than any group of investigators, no matter how large or how dedicated, can mine completely
• New investigators and new disciplines often bring new ideas, even though some may seem outlandish
• Collaboration with investigators knowledgeable about study generally leads to greater efficiency, better science
• WHI OS dataset available at http://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/resources/deca/whios/
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WHI Observational Study
Opening Comments Teri Manolio, MD, PhD
The OS Resource Robert Langer, MD, MPH
Selected Major Findings• Heart and Brain JoAnn Manson, MD, DrPH• Blood Pressure/Depression Sylvia Wassertheil-Smoller,
PhD• Breast Cancer Anne McTiernan, MD, PhD• Bones John Robbins, MD• Body Weight Lewis Kuller, MD, DrPH• Diabetes Karen Margolis, MD, MPH• Access to Medical Care F. Allan Hubbell, MD
Audience Q and A Teri Manolio, MD, PhD and ModeratorClosing Comments
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WHI Observational StudyThe OS Resource
Robert Langer, MD, MPHPrincipal InvestigatorLa Jolla Clinical Center
Director, Outcomes Research InstituteGeisinger Health SystemDanville, Pennsylvania
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WHI OS: Objectives and Composition
• To explore the predictors and natural history of important health problems in postmenopausal women
• To serve as a secular control for the Clinical Trials • Two paths to enroll, about half from each source:
• CT interested but ineligible or unwilling to be randomized
• direct enrollment into the OS• Eligibility:
• 50 to 79 years old, postmenopausal• reliable/mentally competent• expected survival and local residency for at least 3 years
• 93,676 women enrolled between 1994 and 1998
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• Average follow-up about 7 years
• Brief physical exams at baseline and 3 years• height, weight, blood pressure• blood samples for biomarkers and DNA
• Annual mailed questionnaires for all other years • more extensive than those in the CT• allow study of a wide range of risk factors,
socioeconomic influences, and less common diseases
• have a common core,* and a variable section
* major medical events, exercise, smoking, weight, marital status, hormone use, specific conditions e.g. arthritis
Details of the WHI OS
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• weight & weight change• types of fats eaten• red/white wine• HT, phytoestrogens• insecticides• pets• electromagnetic fields• hair dyes, talc
• sun exposure• passive smoking • caffeine, diet drinks• life stress• religious practices• alternative medicine• dental health• places of residence
Examples of Supplemental Items in OS Exposure Forms
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• Enrolled women who came of age in four decades, from the depression-era, to the first years of the baby boom
• Wide range of socio-cultural influences on opportunities and health behaviors
• Among the first to reach out to older minority women including Native American, Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic and African American women
Unique Features of the WHI OS:Demographic and Cultural Diversity
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OS Racial Composition
Observational
American Indian /Alaska NativeAsian / Pacific IslanderBlack / African AmericanHispanic / LatinaWhite
83.3%
.5% 2.9%8.2%
3.9%
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Resources and Scientific Potential: WHI OS
• Wide ranging information on risk exposures• Questionnaires & sampling schedule: http://
www.whiscience.org• Baseline monograph: Ann Epidemiol 2003 Oct;13(9
Suppl): S107-21.
• Biological samples• Blood and DNA• Size and variability of the OS allows efficient
strategies to answer specific questions, while conserving samples for future studies where a small number of woman might make a difference
Observational
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Major Findings from OS:Heart and Brain (Stroke)
JoAnn Manson, MD, DrPHPrincipal InvestigatorBoston Clinical Center
Professor of Medicine,Harvard Medical SchoolChief, Division of Preventive MedicineBrigham and Women’s HospitalBoston, Massachusetts
Observational
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Observational
Physical Activity and Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Women
(N Engl J Med 2002; 347:716-725)
Goals:
• To assess the relationship between physical activity and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), including heart disease and stroke
• To compare the role of moderate-intensity exercise (walking) and vigorous exercise in preventing CVD
• To compare the benefits of exercise in women of different ages, ethnic groups, and body weight categories
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Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Disease: The Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study
(N=73,743 women; 1,551 CVD events)
Categories of Physical Activity
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1 (low) 2 3 4 5 (high)
Ag
e-A
dju
sted
Rel
ativ
e R
isk
1.0
0.83
0.720.63
0.55
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1 (low) 2 3 4 5 (high)F
ully
-Ad
just
ed R
elat
ive
Ris
k
1.0
0.890.81
0.780.72
Observational
P for trend <0.001 P for trend <0.001
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Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Events: Other Findings
Observational
• Brisk walking and vigorous exercise were associated with similar (30-40%) reductions in risk of CVD.
• Exercise produced greater benefits for heart disease than for stroke.
• Physical activity appeared to have similar CVD benefits in white women and in African-American women and results did not vary appreciably by age or body weight.
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White Blood Cell (Leukocyte) Count and Risk of Cardiovascular Events in Women
(Arch Intern Med 2005; 165:500-8)
Goals:
• To assess the role of the white blood cell (WBC) count, a simple routine clinical test that serves as a marker for inflammation, as a predictor of future risk of heart disease, stroke, and total mortality in women.
• To assess the contribution of WBC count independent of traditional CVD risk factors.
Observational
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Relative Risks of Cardiovascular Events and Total Mortality According to WBC Count (Highest vs Lowest Quartile)
Observational
Nonfatal MI Fatal CHD Stroke Total Mortality
*P <0.05
Multivariate adjusted
Adjusted for age and ethnicity5.0
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Rel
ati
ve
Ris
k o
f E
ven
ts(h
igh
est
vs l
ow
est
qu
art
ile)
*2.05
*1.41
*3.15
*2.36
*1.87
*1.46
*2.02
*1.52
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WBC Count and Cardiovascular Events:Summary/Conclusions
• Higher WBC counts (level 6.7 x 109 cells/L, which is within normal range) predict a significant increase in future risk of heart disease, stroke, and total mortality in women.
• Elevated risks persist even after control for other known CVD risk factors.
Observational
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Major Findings from OS:Blood Pressure and Depression
Sylvia Wassertheil-Smoller, PhDPrincipal InvestigatorNew York City Clinical Center
Professor of Epidemiology and Population Health
Head, Division of EpidemiologyAlbert Einstein College of MedicineNew York City, New York
Observational
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Hypertension Study: Goals (Hypertension 2000; 36(5):780-9)
• To describe the prevalence, treatment and control of high blood pressure in postmenopausal women.
• Purpose is to:
• evaluate how we are doing and
• target areas for improvement in BP control.
• Hypertension = SBP >=140, DBP >=90, or on meds
Observational
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Percent Prevalence of Hypertension by Age and Race/Ethnicity (N=90,755 women)
Overall, about 4 out of 10 postmenopausal women are hypertensive. Prevalence rises with age.
59% of Black women have hypertension compared to about a third of White or Hispanic women.
Observational
27
41
53
36
59
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
% hypertensives
50-59 60-69 70-79 White Black Hispanic
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Treatment and Control of BP
About two thirds in all ages are treated, but only about one third have their BP under control.
Control of BP decreases with age, (only 29% of 70-79 year olds have BP under control).
Older women are not adequately treated.
Observational
64
41
65
37
63
29
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
50-59 60-69 70-79
% hyp who are treated % hyp who are controlled
Per
cen
t
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Depression and Cardiovascular Sequelae in Post-Menopausal Women: in WHI
(Arch Intern Med 2004; 164(3)289-98)
• In WHI 16% of women had symptoms of depression.
• 7.8% were taking anti-depressant medication.
• Older women (70-79) report less depression than younger ones.
• Hispanic and Black women have highest rates of depression, Asians/Pacific Islanders have lowest rates.
Observational
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Crude Event Rates per 10,000 Women for Those with Current or History of Depression and
Those Non-Depressed (4.1 years Follow-up)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Cordis CHD CHF Stroke CVD Death All Death
Depressed
Non-Depressed
Observational
No
. of
Eve
nts
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Risks Associated With Baseline Depression Among Those With No History of CVD (N= 73,098)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
DEATH CVD DEATH CANCER Diagnosis
Rel
ativ
e R
isk 1.29
1.59
1.00
Depression is an independent risk factor for CVD death.Depression is not related to future cancer diagnosis.
Observational
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Major Findings from OS:Breast Cancer
Anne McTiernan, MD, PhDCo-InvestigatorWHI Clinical Coordinating Center
Member, Public Health Sciences DivisionFred Hutchinson Cancer Research CenterSeattle, Washington
Observational
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Physical Activity and Incidence of Breast Cancer (JAMA 2003; 290:1331-6)
Goals:
• To assess the relationship between current total, strenuous, and moderate intensity physical activity and risk of breast cancer.
• To assess the association between past strenuous exercise and breast cancer risk.
• To compare the benefits of exercise in women of different body weight categories.
Observational
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Total Physical Activity and Breast Cancer
Relative Risk According to Categories of Physical Activity
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1 (low) 2 3 4 5 6 (high)
All
Wom
en
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1 (low) 2 3 4 5 6 (high)
1
2
3
By
BM
I T
erti
les
(N=74,171 women; 1780 breast cancer cases)
P=0.04
P=0.03 (lightest women)
Observational
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• Women who engaged in regular strenuous exercise at age 35 yrs. had a 14% lower risk of breast cancer vs. less active women.
• Total activity was more strongly related to breast cancer risk reduction compared with strenuous or moderate/strenuous activity.
• Age, parity, family history of breast cancer, and use of hormone therapy did not affect the results.
Other Findings: Physical Activity and Breast Cancer
Observational
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Goals:
• To assess the relationship between weight, body mass index (BMI), waist and hip circumferences, and risk of breast cancer.
• To assess the association between obesity at ages 18 and 50, and breast cancer risk.
• To estimate the relative risk of breast cancer occurrence according to change in weight and BMI from age 18 to 50.
Body Size and Incidence of Breast Cancer(Cancer Causes and Control 2002; 13:741-51)
Observational
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Risk of Breast Cancer by BMI
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
<=22
.99
23.0
-24.
86
24.8
7-27
.4
27.4
1-31
.1
>31.
1
Body Mass Index
Rel
ativ
e R
isk
Never used HRTEver used HRT
*P trend < .0001
*
(N=85,917 women; 1030 invasive breast cancer cases)
Observational
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• BMI at age 18 was inversely associated with breast cancer risk.
• Current body size and weight were not associated with breast cancer risk in women who had ever used hormone therapy.
• In women who never used hormone therapy:
• Increasing waist and hip circumferences were associated with increased risk (p trend < 0.001).
• BMI increase > 9.7 kg/m2 from age 18 was associated with ~ 2 times increased risk vs. weight-stable (p trend 0.02).
Other Findings: Body Size and Breast Cancer
Observational
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Major Findings from OS: Bones
John Robbins, MDPrincipal InvestigatorDavis Clinical Center
Professor of MedicineUniversity of California, DavisSacramento, California
Observational
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Fracture Papers from The WHI Observational Cohort
• Generally the fracture papers from the WHI observational cohort were not able to show significant associations.
• Showing lack of association can be important.• This can be illustrated by the papers on:
• Statins (Lipid lowering medications)• Oral Contraceptives
• More papers will be coming out
Observational
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Statins and the Risk of FractureBackground
• Mouse study in Science in 1999 suggested that statins increased bone formation
• Case control study in JAMA in 2000 compared 1,222 patients with hip fractures and controls
• Nested case control study in JAMA 2000, UK general practice
• Case control study in JAMA in 2001, UK General practice data base, 81,880 cases and matched controls
Observational
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Women’s Health InitiativeObservational Study(Annals Intern Med 2003)
• Prospective observational study• 7846 statin users and 85 870 nonusers
Observational
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Birth Control Pills (BCPs) and Fractures(Fertil Steril 2005)
• It had been suggested that there was a decreased fracture rate with BCP use
• However the analysis is difficult• The use of BCPs changed greatly over time• Older women had more fractures and less
BCP use• The formulation of the pills changed• Factors such as smoking, weight, differed in
BCP users
Observational
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Fracture rate
BCP use >5 years: HR of 1.09 (95% CI, 0.97–1.23) compared with never users.
Observational
Birth Control Pills and Fractures
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Major Findings from OS:Body Weight
Lewis Kuller, MD, DrPHPrincipal InvestigatorPittsburgh Clinical Center
Professor of Epidemiology, Department of EpidemiologyUniversity Professor of Public Health, Graduate School of Public HealthUniversity of PittsburghPittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Observational
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Health Outcomes in Extremely Obese Women(Circ 2005; 111(14):212; Abstract)
Goals:
• To compare the prevalence of overweight and three categories of obesity (mild, moderate, severe) in women according to ethnicity
• To assess the risk of all-cause mortality, diabetes, and cardiac outcomes by weight category and by waist circumference
• To compare the weight-mortality association according to ethnicity
Observational
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Distribution of Baseline Characteristics, in the Total Sample (n=90185) and by Body Mass Index Class: Healthy (n=36217); Overweight (n=30993);
Obese I (n=14730); Obese II (n=5371); Obese III (n=3234)
Total Healthy Overwt Obese I Obese II Obese III
Race/Ethnicity N (%) % % % % %
African American 7487 (8) 19 34 25 12 10
Asian/Pac. Island 2535 (3) 62 30 6 1 1
Hispanic 3555 (4) 29 38 21 8 4
Native American 404 (1) 28 29 25 11 8
White 76204 (85) 42 34 15 5 3
Observational
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All-Cause Mortality by Body Mass Index, Waist Circumference (WC) and Race
Observational
≤ 73.7 73.8 - 79.9 80 – 86.0 86.1 – 95.4 95.5 – 104.9 105 – 114.9 115 – 124.9 ≥ 125
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0Black White Black White Black White Black White Black White
18.5 – 24.9 25.0 – 29.9 30 – 34.9 35 – 39.9 40+
Body Mass Index
% D
ead
WC:
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Diabetes Incidence by Body Mass Index Category
19.8
46.9
105.664.1
117.2
196.3
228.1
180.9
242.6
292.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
White African American
Dia
bet
es I
nci
den
ce/1
0,00
0 P
Y
Observational
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Incidence of Cardiac and Vascular Outcomes by Body Mass Index Category
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Angina MI REVASC CHF CVA DVT PE
Incid
en
ce/1
0,0
00 P
Y
Normal Overweight Obesity I Obesity II Obesity III
MI = myocardial infarction REVASC= revascularizationCHF = coronary heart failure CVA= strokeDVT= deep vein thrombosis PE= pulmonary embolism
Observational
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Summary/Conclusions
1. In women, waist circumference over 32-34” is associated with increased risk of disease such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Measuring waist circumference will help to identify women at increased risk.
2. Risk of disease increases across spectrum of increasingweight to severe obesity BMI ≥40.
3. Having diabetes, hypertension, and smoking substantially increases risk by BMI classification. Treatment of these risk factors should be a high priority.
Observational
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Major Findings from OS:Diabetes
Karen Margolis, MD, MPHPrincipal InvestigatorMinneapolis Clinical Center
Associate Professor of MedicineUniversity of MinnesotaMinneapolis, Minnesota
Observational
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Goals:
• To compare the incidence of new onset diabetes in different ethnic groups
• To assess the relationship between physical activity and risk of diabetes
• To compare the benefits of exercise in women of different ethnic groups.
Physical Activity and Diabetes Risk in Postmenopausal Women (Am J Prev Med 2005; 28:19-25)
Observational
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
WhiteN=74240
BlackN=6465
HispanicN=3231
AsianN=2445
AmericanIndianN=327
Per
cen
t
Incidence of Treated Diabetes During 5 Years of Follow-up
Observational
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
White Black Hispanic Asian AmericanIndian
None
10 - 149
>150
Per
cen
t
Minutes of Physical Activity/Week According to Ethnicity
Observational
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Physical Activity and Risk of New-Onset Diabetes
Relative Risk According to Categories of Physical Activity
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1 (low) 2 3 4 5 (high)
1.0 0.88
0.74 0.89 0.76
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1 (low) 2 3 4 5 (high)
1.0 0.90 0.84
0.77
0.95
(N=74,240 White Women; 6465 Black Women)
White Women Black Women
Observational
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• Confirms higher incidence of diabetes in postmenopausal minority women
• Non-white women were more likely to report physical inactivity
• Physical activity is associated with a lower risk for diabetes in white women; this association was less clear in non-white women (but statistical power may have been limited).
Summary and Conclusions
Observational
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Major Findings from OS:Access to Medical Care
F. Allan Hubbell, MDPrincipal InvestigatorIrvine Clinical Center
Professor and Chair, Department of MedicineUniversity of California, IrvineIrvine, California
Observational
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Goal:
To determine whether health insurance coverage independently predicts the use of screening tests for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer in the observational cohort
Importance of Health Insurance as a Determinant of Cancer Screening: Evidence from the Women’s
Health Initiative (Prev Med 2000;31:261-70)
Observational
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Characteristic %
• Race/Ethnicity (White) 85
• Income (>$50,000) 41
• Currently Married 63
• Education (≥College) 43
• Have Medical Care Provider 95
• Have Health Insurance 97
Participant Characteristics (n=55,278)
Observational
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Characteristic Odds Ratio <65 yr
(n=31,684)
Odds Ratio ≥65 yr
(n=23,594)
Race/Ethnicity
Native American
Asian American/
Pacific Islander
Black
Latina
White
Other
0.60
0.57*
0.95
0.82*
1.00
0.80
1.18
0.85
0.94
0.93
1.00
1.04
Income
<$20,000
$20-50,000
>$50,000
0.71*
1.00
1.49*
0.73*
1.00
1.24*
Not Married 0.92* 0.89*
* P <0.05
Predictors of Mammogram Screening in Past 2 Years
Observational
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Characteristic Odds Ratio <65 yr
(n=31,684)
Odds Ratio ≥65 yr
(n=23,594)
Education
<High School
≥High School
College or more
0.75*
0.84*
1.00
0.84*
0.90*
1.00
Chronic Disease
Diabetes
High Cholesterol
0.92*
1.35*
0.85*
1.25*
Medical Provider
Visit > One Year Ago
Visit Within Past Year
No Provider
0.33*
1.00
0.17*
0.34*
1.00
0.16*
* P <0.05
Predictors of Mammogram Screening in Past 2 Years
Observational
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Characteristic Odds Ratio <65 yr
(n=31,684)
Odds Ratio ≥65 yr
(n=23,594)
Insurance
None
Prepaid
Fee for Service
Prepaid + Medicare
Medicare only
Fee for Service + Medicare
Other
0.30*
1.00
0.84*
0.67*
1.17*
0.81*
1.00
1.06
* P <0.05
Predictors of Mammogram Screening in Past 2 Years
Observational
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• Predictors of Mammogram Screening
• Health insurance status
• Type of health insurance
• Usual medical care provider
• Years of formal education, household income, and certain chronic diseases
• Race/Ethnicity in the < 65 year old group
Summary
Observational
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WHI Observational StudyQuestions and Answers
Moderator:Teri Manolio, MD, PhDNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute
Senior Advisor to the Director for Population Genomics, National Human Genome Research Institute
Observational
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WHI Observational StudyClosing Comments
Moderator:Teri Manolio, MD, PhDNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute
Senior Advisor to the Director for Population Genomics,
National Human Genome Research Institute
Observational