where to from here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · source: iisi, iai, icsg, imni,...

20
Where To From Here? Chip Goodyear Chief Executive Officer Merrill Lynch Global Metals, Mining and Steel Conference Miami, May 2006

Upload: others

Post on 16-Jul-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Where To From Here?

Chip Goodyear Chief Executive OfficerMerrill Lynch Global Metals, Mining and Steel ConferenceMiami, May 2006

Page 2: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 2

Disclaimer

The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. Norepresentation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by BHP Billiton.

Nothing in this release should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.

Page 3: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 3

10 year historical Chinese demand

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Chinese refined copper consumption

% share of world refined copperconsumption (r ight hand scale)

‘000 tonnes

Data: BHP Billiton

%

0

50

100

150

200

250

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 050%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Chinese primary nickel consumption

% share of world primary nickelconsumption (right hand scale)

%‘000 tonnes

Data: INSG

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 '050%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Chinese aluminium consumption

% share of global aluminiumconsumption (r ight hand scale)

Data: BH, CRU

‘000 tonnes %

0

50 ,000

100 ,000

150 ,000

200 ,000

250 ,000

300 ,000

350 ,000

9 5 96 97 98 9 9 00 01 0 2 03 04 '050%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Chinese crude steel consumption

% share of global crude steel consumption(right hand scale)

‘000 tonnes %

Data: IISI, CISA, BHP Bil liton (NB: 05 is based on estimate figures as final figures are not yet released)

Page 4: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 4

Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004

Steel Aluminum Copper Iron Ore Coal Crude Oil

China’s per capita raw materials consumption is well below that of developed countries

Chinese per capita consumption vs. developed countries

Page 5: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 5

Copper intensity of useCopper Intensity per Capita

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000GDP/Capita (PPP, Jan. 2006 US$'000)

Kg C

oppe

r/Cap

ita

USA (1878-2005)Japan (1950-2005)S. Korea (1970-2005)Germany (1950-2005)Taiwan (1970-2005)China (1950-2005)

Source: World Bank, OECD (GDP at Purchasing Power Parity), CRU

Page 6: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 6

Steel intensity of useSteel Intensity per Capita

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000GDP/Capita (PPP, Jan. 2006 US$'000)

Kg S

teel/

Capi

ta

USA (1900-2004)Japan (1950-2004)S. Korea (1970-2004)Taiwan (1970-2004)China (1970-2004)

Source: World Bank, OECD (GDP at Purchasing Power Parity), IISI

Page 7: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 7

Energy intensity of use

Source: World Bank, OECD (GDP at Purchasing Power Parity), BP Statistical Review

Energy Intensity per Capita

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000

GDP/Capita (PPP, Jan. 2006 US$'000)

Ener

gy U

se p

er C

apita

(Oil

Equi

vale

nt to

nnes

)

USA (1960-2004)Japan (1960-2004)S. Korea (1965-2004)Germany (1965-2004)Taiwan (1965-2004)China (1965-2004)

Page 8: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 8

Today 45 Tier 1-3 cities provide China’s growth impetus…

* Tier 1 city defined as registered population >4.5 m and GDP/capita >US$3,000, Tier 2 city defined as either registered population >4.5 m or GDP/capita >US$3,000, Tier 3 city defined as registered population 1.5-4.5 m and GDP/capita US$1,500-US$3,000Source: WEFA-WMM; China macro model; McKinsey analysis

China’s tiered city structure* – 2003

Today, China has 45 t ier 1-3 cities, mainly in coastal provinces

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Page 9: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 9

* Tier 1 city defined as registered population >4.7 m and GDP/capita >US$3,800, tier 2 city defined as either registered population >4.7 m or GDP/capita >US$3,800, tier 3 city defined as registered population 1.6-4.7 m and GDP/capita US$1,900-US$3,800Source: WEFA-WMM; China macro model; McKinsey analysis

China’s tiered city structure* – 2010

By 2010, Tier 1-3 cities will have grown to 86 in number, still largely driven by coastal provinces

Today, China has 45 t ier 1-3 cities, mainly in coastal provinces

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

… by 2010 … 86 tier 1-3 cities …

Page 10: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 10

* Tier 1 city defined as registered population >5.1 m and GDP/capita >US$5,900, tier 2 city defined as either registered population >5.1 m or GDP/capita >US$5,900, tier 3 city defined as registered population 1.7-5.1 m and GDP/capita US$3,000-US$5,900Source: WEFA-WMM; China macro model; McKinsey analysis

China’s tiered city structure* – 2025

By 2025, there will be 147 Tier 1-3 cities as urbanization in interior provinces occurs

By 2010, Tier 1-3 cities will have grown to 86 in number, still largely driven by coastal provinces

Today, China has 45 t ier 1-3 cities, mainly in coastal provinces

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

… and by 2025 … 147 tier 1-3 cities

Page 11: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 11

A high growth consumption scenario

Source: Goldman Sachs, CRU, AME, UN, BP et alIntensity of Use trends are estimated based on Domestic Economies TrendFor Aluminium CIS is used as a proxy for Russia

(MM t except MMbd oil)2002 2015 2025 2050

Aluminium BRICs 6.1 47.9 67.7 136.0% of 2002 world 24% 189% 267% 536%

Copper BRICs 3.5 18.6 23.6 37.2% of 2002 world 23% 124% 158% 249%

Nickel BRICs 0.18 1.21 1.81 4.14% of 2002 world 15% 103% 154% 353%

Oil BRICs 8.4 99.4 111.8 132.6% of 2002 world 11% 131% 148% 175%

Page 12: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 12

Leads to demand for our commoditiesAn example - metal content of an average family car

Average family saloon

Copper = <20 kilosAluminium = ~120 kilosNickel = <20 kilos

Iron Ore = ~1000 kilosCoking Coal = ~400 kilos

Carbon Steel = ~650 kilos

At today’s prices, cost of these commodities

represents < 5 % of the average US

retail price

Page 13: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

What are we doing to capture our share of growth?

Page 14: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 14

Diversification, stable cash flow, global reach,visibility to growth options

Petroleum

Aluminium

Base Metals

Carbon Steel Materials Diamonds & Spec Prod Energy Coal Stainless Steel Materials

Page 15: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 15

Track record of delivery

San JuanCerrejon*

Mt Arthur North

Energy Coal

Aluminium

Carbon SteelBase Metals

PetroleumDiamonds

Typhoon, Mad Dog & Pipelines

Ohanet& ROD

Zamzama

Bream Gas Pipeline & Minerva

NWS T4

Angostura

Mozal II

Hillside IIIParanam

Accelerated Expansion & Rapid Growth

Area C & PACE

Dendrobium

BMA Phase 1Antamina

Tintaya Oxide

Escondida*Olympic Dam**

Nickel West**

Ekati*/Panda

Fertilizer**

* Cerrejon refers to increased ownership interest plus expansion program. Ekati refers to increased ownership interest.Escondida includes Phase IV and Norte.

29 projects & 2 bolt on acquisitions US$6.7 billionPlus WMC acquisition US$7.2 billion

** Assets acquired v ia WMC Acquisition

Page 16: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 16

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Nat Gas

Aluminium

Alumina

Copper

S ilver

Lead

Met Coal

Iron Ore

Mn Ore

Providing strong volume growth

Volume increases are based on annualised December 2005 half year against FY2001production volumes. Excludes Nickel and Diamonds which have increased 206% and 105% respectively , and crude oil and condensate production which has decreased by 41%

Page 17: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 17

Continuing to meet the growth challengeB R O W N F I E L D

G R E E N F I E L D

As at 15 February 2006Size of bubble indicates proposed capital expenditure; bold outer border signifies sanctioned project.

$US 200M$US 200M

NickelPetroleum

Diamonds

Alumina

Iron OreBase Metals

Met. Coal

Energy Coal

Blackwater CPP

BMA Phase 2 Koala UGKoala UG

Esc’daSulphideEsc’da

Sulphide

NWS T5NWS T5

NWSAngelNWSAngel

Zamzama Phase 2 Atlantis North

YabuluYabulu

Douglas –MiddelburgDouglas –

Middelburg

AlumarAlumar

WA Iron OreRGP 2

WA Iron OreRGP 2

WA Iron OreRGP 4+

WA Iron OreRGP 4+

SamarcoSamarco

WA Iron OreRGP 3

WA Iron OreRGP 3 Worsley E&GWorsley E&G

WorsleyDCP

RavensthorpeRavensthorpeMaruwaiMaruwai

NeptuneNeptune

StybarrowStybarrow PyreneesPyrenees

ShenziShenzi

Atlantis SouthAtlantis South

SpenceSpence

20092007 2008CY2006 2010 2011

Page 18: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 18

What’s beyond the bubble chart?

DiamondsPorphyry copperSedimentary copper

NickelIron oreBauxite

Page 19: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 19

What’s beyond the bubble chart? Operations to exploration

Page 20: Where To From Here?/media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/200… · Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1970 1975 1980

Slide 20

Conclusions

• China has been the driver of commodities demand for several years and its industrialisation path is tracking the world’s developed economies

• It’s not just about China - other emerging economies are following

• Demographics and economic development could continue for years

• This will require significant new mine capacity• BHP Billiton has unparalleled diversification, global reach, visibility

to growth options and track record of delivery

• BHP Billiton is well positioned to capture its share of demand growth