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TRANSCRIPT
Where To From Here?
Chip Goodyear Chief Executive OfficerMerrill Lynch Global Metals, Mining and Steel ConferenceMiami, May 2006
Slide 2
Disclaimer
The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. Norepresentation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by BHP Billiton.
Nothing in this release should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.
Slide 3
10 year historical Chinese demand
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Chinese refined copper consumption
% share of world refined copperconsumption (r ight hand scale)
‘000 tonnes
Data: BHP Billiton
%
0
50
100
150
200
250
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 050%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Chinese primary nickel consumption
% share of world primary nickelconsumption (right hand scale)
%‘000 tonnes
Data: INSG
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 '050%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Chinese aluminium consumption
% share of global aluminiumconsumption (r ight hand scale)
Data: BH, CRU
‘000 tonnes %
0
50 ,000
100 ,000
150 ,000
200 ,000
250 ,000
300 ,000
350 ,000
9 5 96 97 98 9 9 00 01 0 2 03 04 '050%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Chinese crude steel consumption
% share of global crude steel consumption(right hand scale)
‘000 tonnes %
Data: IISI, CISA, BHP Bil liton (NB: 05 is based on estimate figures as final figures are not yet released)
Slide 4
Source: IISI, IAI, ICSG, IMNI, IEA, UTCAD, Tex Report and BHP Billiton Estimates
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004
Steel Aluminum Copper Iron Ore Coal Crude Oil
China’s per capita raw materials consumption is well below that of developed countries
Chinese per capita consumption vs. developed countries
Slide 5
Copper intensity of useCopper Intensity per Capita
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000GDP/Capita (PPP, Jan. 2006 US$'000)
Kg C
oppe
r/Cap
ita
USA (1878-2005)Japan (1950-2005)S. Korea (1970-2005)Germany (1950-2005)Taiwan (1970-2005)China (1950-2005)
Source: World Bank, OECD (GDP at Purchasing Power Parity), CRU
Slide 6
Steel intensity of useSteel Intensity per Capita
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000GDP/Capita (PPP, Jan. 2006 US$'000)
Kg S
teel/
Capi
ta
USA (1900-2004)Japan (1950-2004)S. Korea (1970-2004)Taiwan (1970-2004)China (1970-2004)
Source: World Bank, OECD (GDP at Purchasing Power Parity), IISI
Slide 7
Energy intensity of use
Source: World Bank, OECD (GDP at Purchasing Power Parity), BP Statistical Review
Energy Intensity per Capita
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000
GDP/Capita (PPP, Jan. 2006 US$'000)
Ener
gy U
se p
er C
apita
(Oil
Equi
vale
nt to
nnes
)
USA (1960-2004)Japan (1960-2004)S. Korea (1965-2004)Germany (1965-2004)Taiwan (1965-2004)China (1965-2004)
Slide 8
Today 45 Tier 1-3 cities provide China’s growth impetus…
* Tier 1 city defined as registered population >4.5 m and GDP/capita >US$3,000, Tier 2 city defined as either registered population >4.5 m or GDP/capita >US$3,000, Tier 3 city defined as registered population 1.5-4.5 m and GDP/capita US$1,500-US$3,000Source: WEFA-WMM; China macro model; McKinsey analysis
China’s tiered city structure* – 2003
Today, China has 45 t ier 1-3 cities, mainly in coastal provinces
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Slide 9
* Tier 1 city defined as registered population >4.7 m and GDP/capita >US$3,800, tier 2 city defined as either registered population >4.7 m or GDP/capita >US$3,800, tier 3 city defined as registered population 1.6-4.7 m and GDP/capita US$1,900-US$3,800Source: WEFA-WMM; China macro model; McKinsey analysis
China’s tiered city structure* – 2010
By 2010, Tier 1-3 cities will have grown to 86 in number, still largely driven by coastal provinces
Today, China has 45 t ier 1-3 cities, mainly in coastal provinces
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
… by 2010 … 86 tier 1-3 cities …
Slide 10
* Tier 1 city defined as registered population >5.1 m and GDP/capita >US$5,900, tier 2 city defined as either registered population >5.1 m or GDP/capita >US$5,900, tier 3 city defined as registered population 1.7-5.1 m and GDP/capita US$3,000-US$5,900Source: WEFA-WMM; China macro model; McKinsey analysis
China’s tiered city structure* – 2025
By 2025, there will be 147 Tier 1-3 cities as urbanization in interior provinces occurs
By 2010, Tier 1-3 cities will have grown to 86 in number, still largely driven by coastal provinces
Today, China has 45 t ier 1-3 cities, mainly in coastal provinces
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
… and by 2025 … 147 tier 1-3 cities
Slide 11
A high growth consumption scenario
Source: Goldman Sachs, CRU, AME, UN, BP et alIntensity of Use trends are estimated based on Domestic Economies TrendFor Aluminium CIS is used as a proxy for Russia
(MM t except MMbd oil)2002 2015 2025 2050
Aluminium BRICs 6.1 47.9 67.7 136.0% of 2002 world 24% 189% 267% 536%
Copper BRICs 3.5 18.6 23.6 37.2% of 2002 world 23% 124% 158% 249%
Nickel BRICs 0.18 1.21 1.81 4.14% of 2002 world 15% 103% 154% 353%
Oil BRICs 8.4 99.4 111.8 132.6% of 2002 world 11% 131% 148% 175%
Slide 12
Leads to demand for our commoditiesAn example - metal content of an average family car
Average family saloon
Copper = <20 kilosAluminium = ~120 kilosNickel = <20 kilos
Iron Ore = ~1000 kilosCoking Coal = ~400 kilos
Carbon Steel = ~650 kilos
At today’s prices, cost of these commodities
represents < 5 % of the average US
retail price
What are we doing to capture our share of growth?
Slide 14
Diversification, stable cash flow, global reach,visibility to growth options
Petroleum
Aluminium
Base Metals
Carbon Steel Materials Diamonds & Spec Prod Energy Coal Stainless Steel Materials
Slide 15
Track record of delivery
San JuanCerrejon*
Mt Arthur North
Energy Coal
Aluminium
Carbon SteelBase Metals
PetroleumDiamonds
Typhoon, Mad Dog & Pipelines
Ohanet& ROD
Zamzama
Bream Gas Pipeline & Minerva
NWS T4
Angostura
Mozal II
Hillside IIIParanam
Accelerated Expansion & Rapid Growth
Area C & PACE
Dendrobium
BMA Phase 1Antamina
Tintaya Oxide
Escondida*Olympic Dam**
Nickel West**
Ekati*/Panda
Fertilizer**
* Cerrejon refers to increased ownership interest plus expansion program. Ekati refers to increased ownership interest.Escondida includes Phase IV and Norte.
29 projects & 2 bolt on acquisitions US$6.7 billionPlus WMC acquisition US$7.2 billion
** Assets acquired v ia WMC Acquisition
Slide 16
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Nat Gas
Aluminium
Alumina
Copper
S ilver
Lead
Met Coal
Iron Ore
Mn Ore
Providing strong volume growth
Volume increases are based on annualised December 2005 half year against FY2001production volumes. Excludes Nickel and Diamonds which have increased 206% and 105% respectively , and crude oil and condensate production which has decreased by 41%
Slide 17
Continuing to meet the growth challengeB R O W N F I E L D
G R E E N F I E L D
As at 15 February 2006Size of bubble indicates proposed capital expenditure; bold outer border signifies sanctioned project.
$US 200M$US 200M
NickelPetroleum
Diamonds
Alumina
Iron OreBase Metals
Met. Coal
Energy Coal
Blackwater CPP
BMA Phase 2 Koala UGKoala UG
Esc’daSulphideEsc’da
Sulphide
NWS T5NWS T5
NWSAngelNWSAngel
Zamzama Phase 2 Atlantis North
YabuluYabulu
Douglas –MiddelburgDouglas –
Middelburg
AlumarAlumar
WA Iron OreRGP 2
WA Iron OreRGP 2
WA Iron OreRGP 4+
WA Iron OreRGP 4+
SamarcoSamarco
WA Iron OreRGP 3
WA Iron OreRGP 3 Worsley E&GWorsley E&G
WorsleyDCP
RavensthorpeRavensthorpeMaruwaiMaruwai
NeptuneNeptune
StybarrowStybarrow PyreneesPyrenees
ShenziShenzi
Atlantis SouthAtlantis South
SpenceSpence
20092007 2008CY2006 2010 2011
Slide 18
What’s beyond the bubble chart?
DiamondsPorphyry copperSedimentary copper
NickelIron oreBauxite
Slide 19
What’s beyond the bubble chart? Operations to exploration
Slide 20
Conclusions
• China has been the driver of commodities demand for several years and its industrialisation path is tracking the world’s developed economies
• It’s not just about China - other emerging economies are following
• Demographics and economic development could continue for years
• This will require significant new mine capacity• BHP Billiton has unparalleled diversification, global reach, visibility
to growth options and track record of delivery
• BHP Billiton is well positioned to capture its share of demand growth