where should we add some for better forecast?
DESCRIPTION
Introduction to "ALERA" ALERA is a new atmospheric objective analysis dataset produced by JAMSTEC. This is produced by using an ensemble Kalman filter assimilation technique, so that we get a very "interesting" and "useful" product. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/esc/afes/alera/ Reference: "The influence of the observations propagated by convective coupled equatorial waves" Qoosaku Moteki1,*, Kunio Yoneyama1, Ryuichi Shirooka1, Hisayuki Kubota1, Kazuaki Yasunaga1, Junko Suzuki1, Ayako Seiki1, Naoki Sato2, Takeshi Enomoto3, Takemasa Miyoshi4, Shozo Yamane5 Article first published online: 18 APR 2011 DOI: 10.1002/qj.779 The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Volume 137, Issue 656, pages 641--655, April 2011 Part A Abstract: This paper describes the propagation of the influence of radiosonde observations made during MISMO (Mirai Indian Ocean cruise for the Study of the Madden--Julian oscillation-convection Onset), which was conducted over the Indian Ocean in the boreal autumn of 2006. The impact of these observations was assessed using an experimental reanalysis called 'ALERA' that was produced by the local ensemble transform Kalman filter with the atmospheric global circulation model for the Earth Simulator. The difference of the analysis ensemble mean between the analysis cycles with and without the MISMO observations was used to quantify the influence of these observations on the analysis field, which we call impact signals. Since the impact signals were contaminated by noise, probably due to the model's truncated spectral basis, a significance test was performed using the analysis ensemble spread, and the numerical noise was then successfully eliminated. The results indicated that convectively coupled equatorial waves propagated the impact signals to the central Pacific to the east and to the African continent to the west. In particular, the analysis fields around typhoons Cimaron, Chebi, and Durian over the tropical Western Pacific were significantly modified by the propagation of the impact signals through the Kelvin waves. Here two factors played important roles: (1) the meridional positions of the typhoons; and (2) the duration of the observations. The equatorial Rossby waves also made a significant contribution to the propagation of the impact signals. Such influences through the waves resulted in the reduction of the analysis spread. The shape of the region of reduced spread resembled the Matsuno--Gill pattern with an east-west width of more than 20000 km. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological SocietyTRANSCRIPT
MOTEKI QoosakuTropical Climate Variability Research ProgramJapan Marine-Earth Science and Technology
should we add observationsin the Tropics?
WhereIntensive observation projects
conducted by JAMSTEC
Operational Upper-air Sounding
Weather Station Weather RadarRadio Sonde
t
z
t
z
ty x
1-D 2-D 3-D
should we add observationsin the Tropics?
WhereIntensive observation projects
conducted by JAMSTEC
Radar
Vessel
CINDY Oct.-Dec. 2011
do you get?
How much
Intensive observation projects
conducted by JAMSTEC
improvement
Improvement by CINDY
improvedegrade%
improvement rate (%) =Error without Obs. - Error with Obs.
Error without Obs.
observation
forecast
next analysis
Spread
Error
current analysis
≒
Objective evaluation of the ”value” of
Additional observations
Analysis error of U during MISMO2006
● operational sounding
small error large error(m/s)
● MISMO sounding● operational sounding
(m/s)
small error large error
Analysis error of U during MISMO2006
ALERAavailable from
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/esc/research/oreda/products/
Improvement by CINDY
improvedegrade%
improvement rate (%) =Error without Obs. - Error with Obs.
Error without Obs.
Message
Continuous contribution needs
continuous connection
continuous connectionon the Youtube
the Youtube leads details
the video like a music
JAMSTEC original productswill surely contribute for
better forecast in the Tropics