where now for high yield?
TRANSCRIPT
James GledhillGl b l H d f Hi h Yi ldGlobal Head of High Yield
Where now for High Yield?
This presentation is intended for professional advisers only and must not be relied upon by retail clients. Circulation must be restricted accordingly.
AXA Global High Income Fund Performance vs. UK High Yield sector
16AXA Global High Income RIMA £ High Yield3rd Quartile
12.72
14.13
12
14
8.50 8.568
10
%
1st Quartile
2nd Quartile
1st Quartile
7.447.54 7.276.80
6
2
4
01 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years
1st or 2nd quartile performance across multiple cycles
16890
Source: AXA IM / Lipper as at 30/04/2013. Performance shown is annualised and for the AXA Global High Income R Acc share class, net of fees, calculated using mid prices. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. No assurances can be made that profits will be achieved or that substantial losses will not be incurred.
q p p y
2
Global High Yield in figures
Split by ratingKey characteristics Market Value £1,184bn
Historical split by currency*
CCC13%
CC & below<1% 1,800,000
2,000,000US
Number of Issues 3,206
Number of Issuers 1,549
Modified Duration 3.52 yearsBB
49%B38%
13%
800 000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000NON US
S lit b t
y
Yield-to-worst 5.38%
Average Rating B1
38%
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
810121416
Split by sector 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 YTD 13
02468
Large, deep, diversified universe
16890
Source: AXA IM / Bloomberg as at 30/04/2013. (HW00: BofA ML Global High Yield Index). *Split of market value in USD million. Yield figures quoted will vary in the future and are not guaranteed.
Large, deep, diversified universe
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Macro
At the risk of stating the obvious:
USUSThe Good(well OK)
More robust bank / corporate restructuring Staggered / staged deleveraging Virtuous circle
Core EuropeCore EuropeThe Bad
Peripheral CountriesPeripheral CountriesThe Ugly Stagnation / unsustainable boom Internal devaluation / damaging unemployment Vicious circle
Economies are either not or barely back to pre-recession peaks, 5 years on
Hard to see interest rate rises any time soon
Sentiment is improving in the US (probably justified) & in Europe (less convinced)
Differences are in both fiscal and monetary policy
16890
Source: AXA IM.
4
High Yield Valuation & Technicals
Following a very strong 2012 we entered 2013 with reasonable, rather than cheap, valuations
vsYield Spread
Absolute Measure Relative Measure
Low in historic terms, but need to consider current interest rate levels
Currently around average levels yet defaults are at low levels
16890
Source: AXA IM as at 24/05/2013.
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Market outlook
2300
16%
18% Default Rate, % OAS
European default rates and spreads
2.0% in Europe for 2012 and forecasted for 2013
800
1300
1800
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
SpreadsD
efau
lts
15 year average = 4.41%
15 year average = 713 European average default rate 4.4%
Historical European default rates are below the
-200
300
0%
2%
4%
6% US average
Downside riskHistoric European default rates with 2013 forecasts
12%
14%
Downside risk
More volatility due to persisting problems with sovereign debt in Eurozone.
4%
6%
8%
10%g
Company fundamentals, however, remain strong which bodes well for the asset class
Benign environment for High Yield credits
0%
2% asset class.
16890
Benign environment for High Yield credits Source: S&P / Moody’s / JP Morgan 31/12/2012.
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High Yield spreads
Breakdown of Euro HY (%)
High Yield spreads are still elevated relative to pre-crisis era
16890
Source: RBS Credit Strategy as at 23/05/2013.
High Yield spreads are still elevated relative to pre crisis era
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Default outlook
We expect the default rate in both US and European High Yield markets to remain low
Default peaks are typically the result of a significant mismatch between expectation and outcomedeterioration in corporate metrics in a weak economy can be managed through risk controls……deterioration in corporate metrics in a weak economy can be managed through risk controls
There are components in the expected default figures which do not concern us“Selective defaults”Zombie companies of some scale which are expected to default in the next couple of years but are well identified and therefore not relevantbut are well identified and therefore not relevant
16890
Source: AXA IM as at May 2013.
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US vs Europe Credit
US Europe
Better macro environment Fewer signs of risk taking / event risk
Lower headline risk
Better liquidity
Significantly better average credit rating
P i h l / fi i l t Peripheral / financial component
Important to note that we expect the default rate for US and Europe to be similar over the next year
16890
Source: AXA IM.
9
AXA Global High Income Fund
Characteristics Fund IndexAUM £149.7m £1,184.2bnMaturity 3 56 6 26 49%50%
60%Fund
GBP8%
CHF1%
Breakdown by rating2 Breakdown by currency
Maturity 3.56 6.26Yield1 5.55% 5.38%Duration1 2.74 3.52Average Coupon 8.09% 7.57%
25%
44%
25%
38%
13%%
20%
30%
40%
50%Index EUR
14%
8%
OAS 482 482Number of Issuers 372 1,549Number of Issues 449 3,206
4% 2% 1%0% 0% 0%0%
10%
Cash BBB BB B CCC or under
NR USD77%
13%
10% 10%
15%
11%
14%12%
10%12%
16%Fund Index
Breakdown by sector3
4%
<1%
4% 3%
10% 9%
3%
10%
6%
3%2%
5%
1%
6% 6%
1%0% 0%
4%6%
4% 3% 3%
6%
1%
7%
2%
10%
4%
9%
4%4%
8%
<1% 1% 1%0% 0% 1%0%
16890
Source: AXA IM / Bloomberg as at 30/04/2013. (1) Yield and duration calculations include cash held within the portfolio, use the next-call method for all Financials in the portfolio and duration/yield-to-worst for all other holdings. (2) Rating is the worst of S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. (3) ML Level 3 breakdown. All breakdowns exclude currency forwards and futures. Data is unaudited and sourced from our front office portfolio management system, ThinkFolio®. Please note that the yield calculations are based on the portfolio of assets and may NOT be representative of what clients invested in the fund may receive as a distribution yield. Yield figures quoted will vary in the future and are not guaranteed. Index shown is BofA Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Bond Index (HW00). OAS: Option Adjusted Spread. Past performance is not a guide to future returns.
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AXA Global High Income FundMacro views translated
“Fixed Income-Like”• Spread sensitive• Maturity curve
“Equity-Like”• Overall risk premiums• Default riskCharacteristics
• Maturity curve • Industry outlook
• Default risk• Unique operating trends
35%
40%AXA Global High IncomeBofA ML Global High Yield Index
25%
30%
35% g
15%
20%
0%
5%
10%
Shortest Duration
Short Duration 0-5% Yield 5-6% Yield 6-7% Yield 7-8% Yield 8-9% Yield 9%+ Yield Long Duration
DEFENSIVE BETTER QUALITY INTERMEDIATE RISK SPECULATIVEDEFENSIVE BETTER QUALITY INTERMEDIATE RISK SPECULATIVE
16890
Source: AXA IM as at 30/04/2013. Breakdown excludes cash, currency forwards and futures.
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Conclusion
Hard to overstate the importance of Central Bank behaviour to the l ti f fi i l tvaluation of financial assets
No rose-tinted glasses on macro outlook No rose tinted glasses on macro outlook
Corporate profitability – broadly fine
Corporate risk appetite is modest
Refinancing straightforward
Valuations attractive / reasonable
Technicals positive
Attractive risk / reward in continuing ‘risk-on’ / ‘risk-off’ environments
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Disclaimer
This presentation is intended for Professional Advisers only and should not be relied upon by retail clients. Circulation must be restricted accordingly. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is prohibited.
This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or buy any units in the Fund(s). Information relating to investments may have been based on research and analysis undertaken or procured by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited for its own purposes and may have been made available to other expertises within the AXA Investment Managers group of companies who in turn may have acted upon it. Whilst every care is taken over these comments, no responsibility is accepted for errors omissions that may be contained therein. It is therefore not to be taken as a recommendation to enter into any investment transactions. Information in this document may be updated from time to time and may vary from previous or future published versions of the document.
This presentation should not be regarded as an offer, solicitation, invitation or recommendation to subscribe for any AXA IM investment service or product and is being provided for informational purposes only. The views expressed do not constitute investment advice and do not necessarily represent the views of any company within the AXA Investment Managers Group and may be subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fluctuate and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in exchange rates will affect the value of investments made overseas. Fixed income securities are subject to interest rate risk, credit risk, prepayment risk and market risk. High yield securities are subject to a greater risk of loss of principal and interests than higher-rated, investment grade fixed income securities. Investments in newer markets and smaller companies offer the possibility of higher returns but may also involve a higher degree of risk. An initial charge is usually made when you purchase units. Your investment should be for the medium to long term i.e. typically 5-10 g g g y y p g yp yyears.
Before investing, you should read the prospectus, which includes investment risks relating to these funds. The information contained herein is not a substitute for independent advice.
AXA Fixed Income is an expertise of AXA Investment Managers UK Limited. Issued by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Registered in England and Wales No: 01431068. Registered Office: 7 Newgate Street, London EC1A 7NX. Telephone calls may be recorded for quality assurance purposes. 16890 06/2013
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