where does agriculture need to be in 2030/50? - peter reading
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Where Does Agriculture Need to be in 2030/50?
15 February 2011
Global Agriculture“The Burning Platform”
• Population Growth• Arable Farmland• Competition for Arable Land (Biofuels, population)• Water Quality and Availability• Climate Change/Variability• Agricultural Productivity (?)• Farmer Profitability (?)
– Prices– Costs– productivity
World wheat consumption World wheat harvested area
660+ MMT
30 year down trend
+/- 900 MMTDemand in40 years
(+ 240 MMT)
229 MMT
239 MHA
World Population Growth: Projected to 2050
2050+/- 9.3 Billion
20106.8 Billion
World Production and UseNovember, 2010
68
3
64
3
653666
500
520
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01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
MM
T
Production Use
68
3
64
3
653666
500
520
540
560
580
600
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640
660
680
700
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
MM
T
Production Use
Two days of unrest in Maputo, Mozambique, left seven people dead and 280 injured after the government decided to raise bread prices by 30%
Published: September 2, 2010 Fears grow over global food supply
Rainfall trend 1970-2008
Challenges for the Australian Grains Industry
Declining rates of Total Factor Productivity growth– Drought years– Decreased RD&E
expenditure ($, direction)– Lack of ‘near term’
technologies– GM (cereals) 10 years
away– Farm management
capability
High levels of farm debt amongst broadacre farms ...…$’000 2008/09 dollars
0
200
400
600
800
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Farm debt
Farm receipts
Farm cash income
Farmer Profitability
• Government Policy (National and International) Socio/economic Trade policies Industry restructuring Investments in RD&E Recognition of “Global Village” Climate variability/change
• Increased productivity Industry restructure Focussed and driven RD&E
• Increased profitability• terms of trade• productivity
SUSTAINABILITY
Global Agriculture“The Way Forward”
Increased urban
population
Increased free trade
Food safety traceability
Sustainable development
Resource Scarcity
Energy Environment
Food
Grains Industry – Global Trends
The grains industry next 20 years – Mega trends
Factors PrioritiesMain Game- Wheat; barley- Sorghum North- Broadleaf ↑ (hopefully!)
↑↑Yield )WUE ) ProductivityCost Efficiency ) &Abiotic/Biotic stress ) ProfitabilityQuality )
Niche/value added opportunities (Taiwan noodles, HAW, sponge & dough)
Identify and develop (<500k tons)
East Coast/West Coast Grain types/quality
Climate change- Geography shifts- ETS
HRZ wheats, irrigated wheatsCropsLivestockCostsLegumes
GM Technologies ↑Productivity (unlikely < 10years)
Quality/Traceability Market opportunities/requirements
Grain Farms NumbersSize & business
Second generation biofuels LocationSize
Grains Industry supply chain Continued consolidation and globalization
National Grains RD&E Strategy (International?)
↑ Productivity ↑Profitability and Sustainability
National Research Development & ExtensionStrategy
December 2010
Grains Industry
National RD&E Priorities & Delivery Plan
Vision A PROFITABLE. COMPETITIVE AND SUSTAINABLE GRAINS INDUSTRY
↑Yield ↑Value ↓Costs ↑Sustainability
I ndustry Outcome Total Factor Productivity Growth of Greater than 2.5% per annum over the Next Decade whilst Sustaining the Productive Capacity of the Resource base.
National RD&E Outcome Highly Efficient National Grains RD&E Sector
National Centres of Research Capability, National Research Programs, Regional Networks of RD&E
RD&E Strategies Partners DAFF State Departments CSI RO Universities GRDC GCA
BUILD ON EXI STING
NATIONAL
COLLABORATION
DEVELOP EFFECTI VE
RELATIONSHIP
MODELS FOR PRIVATE
- PUBLIC COEXISTENCE
NATIONAL RESEARCH
PROGRAMS, NATIONAL
CENTRES OF RESEARCH
CAPABILITY AND REGIONAL
NETWORKS OF APPLIED
RD&E UNDER THE “MAJ OR-SUPPORT-LINK”
FRAMEWORK
NATIONAL CAPABI LITY
PLANNING FOR HUMAN
AND PHYSI CAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
BETTER & ON-GOING
ALIGNMENT OF
STAKEHOLDER
PRIORITIES AND RD&E
RESOURCE ALLOCATION
I ndustry & Government Priorities
I mproved Varieties to Lift Productivity & Product Value
I mproved Practices to Enhance Productivity & Sustainability
Supply Chain Innovation & Market Competitiveness
Building Farm Business & I ndustry Capability
Productivity
Markets Biosecurity Climate Natural resource management Regional & industry capacity
Growers and industry have ongoing access to improved genetics and varieties with better on-farm performance, reduced cost of production and grain qualities that are competitive in global markets
Improved on-farm practices that increase productivity and profitability whilst maintaining or improving the natural resource base and product integrity
Advance industry knowledge throughout the supply chain to improve the competitiveness and profitability of the sector
Accelerate adoption of new technologies and practice change across all segments of the grains industry
Statement on Biotech Commercialization
1969 Rainfall
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35
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45
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
mm
Total rainfall 217mmGrowing Season
Rainfall April to October
152mm
Yield 400kg / ha
2002 Rainfall
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10
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30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
mm
Total rainfall 164mmGrowing Season
Rainfall April to October
110mm
Yield 990kg / ha
• Future Challenges but equally great opportunities will require:
Clearly defined strategies• Government• Private
Effective change management
Strong relationship management
Summary