where do we stand?
TRANSCRIPT
Author name
Date
Achala Abeysinghe, Caroline Dihl Prolo (IIED) &
Mozaharul Alam (UNEP)
Where do we stand?
Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions (INDCs) and
key issues to be addressed in
Paris
I. INDCs Background...
II. Suggesions for an INDC template...
III. Quick look at INDCs submissions...
IV. Negotiations stocktaking...
V. Key issues to be addressed in Paris...
About presentation
INDCs are the individual efforts of all parties in
order to collectively build global climate change
stability and resilience.
Photo: UNDP’s Flickr – “Equal work”
I. Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions (INDCs):
Background
When to present the INDCs?
How ambitious should an INDC be?
What information should be contained in the
INDCs?
When to present?Parties were invited to communicate their INDCs well in advance
of COP 21, and by the first quarter of 2015 by those Parties
ready to do so.
As of 25 June of 2015, the following INDCs are submitted:
How ambitious?
Parties are to present INDCs that “represent a
progression beyond the current undertaking of
that Party”.
The draft negotiating text includes an option of
a no-backtracking rule in the context of the
continuous review of the successive
“Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs).
The phrase aims to ensure progression/
ambition towards climate action by all Parties
1. Quantifiable information on the reference point (including,
as appropriate, a base year),
2. Time frames and/or periods for implementation,
3. Scope and coverage,
4. Planning processes,
5. Assumptions and methodological approaches including
those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals,
6. How the Party considers that its INDCs are fair and
ambitious, in light of its national circumstances, and
7. How it contributes towards achieving the objective of the
Convention as set out in its Article 2
What kind of information should
be provided?
Preferential Treatment to LDCs
and SIDS
“(…) least developed countries and small
island developing States may
communicate information on strategies,
plans and actions for low greenhouse
gas emission development reflecting
their special circumstances in the
context of intended nationally
determined contributions”.
II - INDCs Template: Mitigation
Information to be presented
on Mitigation could be divided
into the following sections:
1. Technical
2. Aspirational/Explanations
3. Implementation
4. Conditional Contribution
and Support Needs
Possible Technical (and Political)
Choices
1. Type(s) of (unconditional) contribution
2. Scope: Sectors
3. Scope: Gases
4. Scope: Percentage of Emissions Covered
5. Type of Target
6. Type(s) of Policies and Measures
7. Target level
8. Timeframe
9. Methodologies
Types of Mitigation Contribution
(source: UNDP/WRI)
Possible
Aspirations/Explanations:
How the contribution is ambitious, equitable
and adequate to achieve the 1.5oC/2oC
degrees goal?
• How is it equitable?
• How is it ambitious?
• How is it adequate?
Elements related to
implementation
1. Planning processes: which existing or
future domestic policies and actions will
implement the mitigation contribution?
2. Legal and Institutional arrangements
Adaptation INDCs
A template for Adaptation INDCs may
include the following information:
1. Type(s) of climate change impacts,
vulnerabilities and adaptation needs, by Sector
2. Type(s) of Policies, Actions and Tools
3. Quantified goals (if any)
4. Timeframe
5. Methodologies and Assumptions
6. Implementation
7. Support Needs
INDCs Template:
Finance and Support
In order to receive international
support (finance, technology,
capacity building) for the
implementation of the
MITIGATION and ADAPTATION
contribution, developing
countries may aim to provide at
least the following information,
per activity:
• Activity:
• Nature of the support:
• Finance for mitigation
• Finance for adaptation
• Technology
• Capacity
• Level of the Support:
• Amount in $
• Quantity of support, in any other quantifiable
manner
• Frequency/Timeframe for the Support
*European Union:
40% domestic reduction in
greenhouse gas emissions
by 2030 compared to 1990
*Ethiopia:
145 Mt CO2 GHG
emissions limitation
III - Quick look at two INDC
Submissions:
EUROPEAN UNION
MITIGATION CONTRIBUTION
1. Type of Contribution: Outcomes and PAMs
2. Scope – Sectors: Energy, Industrial processes and
product use, agriculture and waste
3. Scope – Gases: All UNFCCC gases
4. Scope – Percentage of Emissions Covered:
100% absolute
5. Type of Target: GHG-based, Economy wide - Base
Year
6. Type of PAMs: Strategies, Regulation and Market-
based instruments
EUROPEAN UNION
MITIGATION CONTRIBUTION
7. Target Level: 40% domestic reductions of GHG
emissions
8. Timeframe: Base year: 1990 Single target year: 2030
9. Methodologies:
• Inventory: IPCC Guidelines 2006 and IPCC 2013 KP
Supplement.
• GWP: 100 year timescale in accordance with the IPCC's 4th
Assessment Report.
• Land sector: Comprehensive accounting framework, activity
or land based approach, for emissions and removals from land
use, land-use change and forestry.
• Use of International Market Based Mechanisms: No
contribution from international credits.
10. How it is *equitable, *ambitious
*adequate
a) Equity and Ambition:
The target represents a significant progression
beyond its current undertaking of a 20% emission
reduction commitment by 2020 compared to 1990.
It is in line with the EU objective, in the context of
necessary reductions according to the IPCC by
developed countries as a group, to reduce its
emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990.
10. How it is *equitable, *ambitious
*adequate
b) Adequacy:
Consistent with the need for at least halving global
emissions by 2050 compared to 1990.
The EU has already reduced their emissions by
around 19% on 1990 levels while GDP has grown by
more than 44% over the same period.
Average per capita emissions across the EU have
fallen from 12 tones CO2-eq. in 1990 to 9 tones
CO2-eq. in 2012 and are projected to fall to around 6
tones CO2-eq. in 2030.
11. Implementation. Planning Processes:
Domestic legally-binding legislation already in place
for the 2020 climate and energy package.
The existing legislation for land use, land-use
change and forestry (EU Decision 529/2013) is
based on the existing accounting rules under the
second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.
Legislative proposals to implement the 2030 climate
and energy framework to be submitted by the
European Commission to the Council and European
Parliament in 2015-2016 on the basis of the general
political directions by the European Council.
ETHIOPIA
MITIGATION COMPONENT
1. Strategies, Plans and Actions for low carbon development:
A National Development Plan, anchored on the Climate
Resilient Green Economy Vision and Strategy of Ethiopia.
2. Scope – Sectors: Energy, Industrial processes and product
use, agriculture, forestry and waste.
3. Scope – Gases: CO2, CH4 and N20
4. Scope – Percentage of Emissions Covered: -
5. Type of Target (optional): GHG-based, Economy wide –
Fixed Level/Carbon Neutrality
6. Target Level (optional): 145 Mt CO2 GHG emissions limitation
7. Timeframe: Single Target year: 2030, towards future Carbon
Neutrality.
ETHIOPIAMITIGATION COMPONENT
9. Methodologies:
• Inventory: IPCC Guidelines 2006
• GWP: 100 year timescale in accordance with the IPCC's 4th
Assessment Report and IPCC 2006 Guidelines.
• Land sector: In accordance with the Ethiopian CRGE
Strategy
• Use of International Market Based Mechanisms: Intends to
sell carbon credits during the period to contribute towards
achieving its Green Economy Strategy.
10. CONDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION: Not clear how much
of the estimated USD 150 billion will need to be supported by
international finance and other means of implementation.
ADAPTATION COMPONENT:
1. Type(s) of climate change impacts, vulnerabilities
and adaptation needs:
Sectors: agriculture and livestock, and infrastructure
Impacts: droughts, floods, soil fertility, agricultural
losses, pests and diseases.
2. Type(s) of Policies, Actions and Tools:
3 pillars of action: droughts, floods and other cross-
cutting interventions, - early warning systems for
extreme events, pest-management systems and
capacity-building for diseases control in the crops as
well as insurance programmes for farmers
All through strategic planning and regulation.
ADAPTATION COMPONENT:
3. Timeframe: Near term actions are aimed to 2020;
Long-term beyond 2020.
4. Implementation: National Adaptation Programme of
Action (NAPA) since 2007; Ethiopian Programme of
Adaptation to Climate Change (EPACC 2011); Nine
National Regional States and two City Administrations
adaptation plans; Five sectorial adaptation plans;
Agriculture sector adaptation strategy; Sustainable
Land Management Programme and the Productive
Safety Net Programme.
5. Support Needs: Future research will be conducted
to quantify the required financial, technological and
capacity-building support.
IV – Negotiations Stocktaking• Geneva Text
• Upcoming streamlined text in 24 July
• Negotiating Text’s Structure:
V - Key issues in PARIS
1. How the INDCs will be anchored in the
agreement?
2. Will NDCs be legally binding? How to
ensure compliance?
3. How to ensure that INDCs will be updated
and reviewed with no backsliding and
upward ambition?
Anchoring INDCs in the 2015
Agreement
Thank you!
Contact: Dr. Achala Abeysinghe
Principal ResearcherInternational Institute for Environment and
Development (IIED)