When Prophecy Fails

The study by Festinger et al. (1956):

Predicting doomsday is a risky business:

The prophecy mostly fails.

Astonishingly, cults predicting doomsday do not

necessarily collapse, but may begin to

propagate their belief and convert others, as

the Montanists of second-century Turkey or the

Anabaptists of sixteenth-century Holland.

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When Prophecy Fails

The leader modern-day doomsday cult told that

she received a message that a flood will destroy

earth on a certain day, but that believers in the

cult will be saved by aliens in flying saucers at

midnight.

Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken, and Stanley

Schachter, three psychologists at the University of

Minnesota, decided to join the cult and to observe

what happened after failure of the prophecy.

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When Prophecy Fails

On the expected doomsday, the cult members sat

down, prayed, and waited for the aliens. As they

approached midnight, suspense increased, but

nothing happened. Towards dawn, it was clear to

the members that the prophecy failed, and the cult

was near dissolution.

Then came the decisive moment:

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When Prophecy Fails

The leader of the doomsday cult raised her arm

and wrote down a message that she told she just

got from the aliens:

“The little group, sitting alone all night long, had

spread so much light that God had saved the

world from destruction.”

However, this alone was not enough; another

ingredient was needed:

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When Prophecy Fails

The leader called a newspaper in order to

publicize the success. All of a sudden, the other

members felt an urge, too, to go public with their

story: They have saved earth through their

prayers.

Why did people continue to believe in the cult, and

some people even become stronger in their belief,

although its’ prediction evidently failed?

Let us read what two members said :

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When Prophecy Fails

A mother with a three years-old child in

her arms:

“I have to believe the flood is coming on

the twenty-first because I’ve spent all my

money. I quit my job, I quit my computer

school … I have to believe.”

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When Prophecy Fails

A leading member of the cult:

“I’ve had to go a long way. I’ve given up just

about everything. I’ve cut every tie. I’ve burnt

every bridge. I’ve turned my back on the world. I

can’t afford to doubt. I have to believe. And there

isn’t any other truth.”

Both members argue with what their beliefs has

cost them; they commit the sunk-cost fallacy.

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When Prophecy Fails

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The failure of the prediction led to cognitive dissonance.

Believing that the cult saved the world and propagating this

message served to reduce dissonance.

Self-perception theory: They observe what they do and see

that they propagate the message, so that they endorse their

own belief.

Self-affirmation theory: People need to be affirmed and

therefore act in a way that maintains their self-esteem.

There are several theories that can explain why members even

intensified their belief in the cult: