what’s next? new resources & needs for causal analysis
TRANSCRIPT
What’s next? New resources & needs for causal analysis
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CADDIS 2007 (and 2008)
• Step-by-Step Guide to SI• Listing advice for 8 stressors
• Analytical tools & advice–CADStat–R-scripts
• Interactive Conceptual Model
• CADLit
• Case studies / examples
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CADDIS 2010: more technical content
• New & improved statistical tools & guidance
• Listing advice for additional stressors– habitat, ammonia, pH, insecticides
• Prototype source-based modules– urbanization, drilling
• New Interactive Conceptual Diagrams
• New case studies
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Working to simplify the process…
CAUSAL CHARACTERISTIC DESCRIPTION
Co-occurrence The effect occurs where and when its cause occurs, and does not occur in the absence of its cause
Temporality The cause precedes its effect
Sufficiency Intensity and frequency of contact with cause is adequate to produce observed effect
Manipulation Changing the cause changes its effect
Coherence Specific causal relationships are consistent with scientific theory
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Beyond 2010?
• Moving toward user-supported, collaborative platform
• Why? Because…– ORD can’t provide adequate information for all
stressors, all sources, all responses, all analytical techniques, etc.
– You know what works & what you need – Your knowledge can help others
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other compounds
pesticides
Collapsible toolbar Start with existing diagram:
All diagrams
Nitrogen
Phosphorus
Sediment
Temperature
Urbanization
agriculture
riparian land cover alteration
∆ channel morphology & physical habitat
∆ water quality
∆ population & community structuremechanisms & symptoms
Inset windowPermanent toolbar Legend Reset diagramHelp
SELECTED SHAPES
Choose an organism:
All organisms
Invertebrates
Fishes
Plants
Other organisms
Display:
Lines
Natural drivers
Mechanisms
Stressor interactions
urbanization industry recreation
water withdrawalwatershed land cover alteration
mining & resource extraction
forestry & silviculture
channel alteration & flow regulation
fishing & harvesting
fertilizers
stormwater runoff
sewage
vehicle emissions
road sand, salt & deicers
watershed soils
bank & channel sediments
N2-fixing plants
fire, ash & smoke
other non-point sources
landfills animal wastesindustrial
point sources
POTWs & WWTPs
mining wastes
industrial emissions
other point sources
historical sources
invasive species
SELECTED LINKAGES
SAVED REFERENCES
∆ sediment quality ∆ discharge patterns ∆ basal food resources
∆ ecosystem processes
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other compounds
pesticides
Collapsible toolbar Start with existing diagram:
All diagrams
Nitrogen
Phosphorus
Sediment
Temperature
Urbanization
agriculture
riparian land cover alteration
∆ channel morphology & physical habitat
∆ water quality
∆ population & community structuremechanisms & symptoms
Inset windowPermanent toolbar Legend Reset diagramHelp
SELECTED SHAPES
Choose an organism:
All organisms
Invertebrates
Fishes
Plants
Other organisms
Display:
Lines
Natural drivers
Mechanisms
Stressor interactions
urbanization industry recreation
water withdrawalwatershed land cover alteration
mining & resource extraction
forestry & silviculture
channel alteration & flow regulation
fishing & harvesting
fertilizers
stormwater runoff
sewage
vehicle emissions
road sand, salt & deicers
watershed soils
bank & channel sediments
N2-fixing plants
fire, ash & smoke
other non-point sources
landfills animal wastesindustrial
point sources
POTWs & WWTPs
mining wastes
industrial emissions
other point sources
historical sources
invasive species
SELECTED LINKAGES
SAVED REFERENCES
∆ sediment quality ∆ discharge patterns ∆ basal food resources
∆ ecosystem processes
8
other compounds
pesticides
Collapsible toolbar Start with existing diagram:
All diagrams
Nitrogen
Phosphorus
Sediment
Temperature
Urbanization
riparian land cover alteration
∆ channel morphology & physical habitat
∆ water quality
∆ population & community structuremechanisms & symptoms
Inset windowPermanent toolbar Legend Reset diagramHelp
SELECTED SHAPES
Choose an organism:
All organisms
Invertebrates
Fishes
Plants
Other organisms
Display:
Lines
Natural drivers
Mechanisms
Stressor interactions
urbanization industry recreation
water withdrawalwatershed land cover alteration
mining & resource extraction
forestry & silviculture
channel alteration & flow regulation
fishing & harvesting
fertilizers
stormwater runoff
sewage
vehicle emissions
road sand, salt & deicers
watershed soils
bank & channel sediments
N2-fixing plants
fire, ash & smoke
other non-point sources
landfills animal wastesindustrial
point sources
POTWs & WWTPs
mining wastes
industrial emissions
other point sources
historical sources
invasive species
SELECTED LINKAGES
SAVED REFERENCES
∆ sediment quality ∆ discharge patterns ∆ basal food resources
∆ ecosystem processes
agriculture
crops livestock
9
other compounds
pesticides
Collapsible toolbar Start with existing diagram:
All diagrams
Nitrogen
Phosphorus
Sediment
Temperature
Urbanization
agriculture
riparian land cover alteration
∆ channel morphology & physical habitat
∆ water quality
∆ population & community structuremechanisms & symptoms
Inset windowPermanent toolbar Legend Reset diagramHelp
SELECTED SHAPES
Choose an organism:
All organisms
Invertebrates
Fishes
Plants
Other organisms
Display:
Lines
Natural drivers
Mechanisms
Stressor interactions
urbanization industry recreation
water withdrawalwatershed land cover alteration
mining & resource extraction
forestry & silviculture
channel alteration & flow regulation
fishing & harvesting
fertilizers
stormwater runoff
sewage
vehicle emissions
road sand, salt & deicers
watershed soils
bank & channel sediments
N2-fixing plants
fire, ash & smoke
other non-point sources
landfills animal wastesindustrial
point sources
POTWs & WWTPs
mining wastes
industrial emissions
other point sources
historical sources
invasive species
SELECTED LINKAGES
SAVED REFERENCES∆ sediment quality ∆ discharge patterns ∆ basal food resources
∆ ecosystem processes
– agriculture
Summary information
References
Related links
– agriculture → pesticides
+ SR relationships [1]
Smith 1998…
Jones et al. 2007…
Love & Chu 2000…
SAVE SELECTED REFERENCES
+ pesticides
– supporting literature [3]
– agriculture → pesticides
Smith 1998…
Jones et al. 2007…
Love & Chu 2000…
DELETE REFERENCES
DOWNLOAD REFERENCES
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What do we need?
• New case studies
• Feedback from you– What works & what doesn’t work
– What’s missing
– What you’re willing & able to contribute
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Future case studies?
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What do you need?
• Are we prioritizing the right stressors?– So far: metals, sediment, nutrients, temperature, dissolved
oxygen, unspecified toxics, ionic strength, flow alteration– Next up: habitat, ammonia, pH, insecticides, sediment
toxicity
• What aquatic systems are presenting the toughest TMDL challenges?
• How can we best help you analyze content?
• What do you need the most?
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Causal analysis is only one step in the process of water quality management…
Define the Case
List Candidate Causes
Evaluate Data from the Case
Evaluate Data from Elsewhere
Identify Probable Cause
Detect or Suspect Biological Impairment
As Necessary: Acquire Data
and Iterate Process
Identify and Apportion Sources
Management Action: Eliminate or Control Sources, Monitor Results
Biological Condition Restored or Protected
Decision-maker and
Stakeholder Involvement
Stressor Identification
• Feedback to bioassessment
• Identification of sources & appropriate management actions
• Monitoring of outcomes
• Criteria development (complementary effort)
• Prediction of effects
Can these tools be used or modified for other purposes, beyond causal analysis?
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EPA’s Causal Analysis Team
John PaulLester YuanGlenn SuterDavid FarrarJeff HollisterWalter BerrySusan NortonRobert CantilliRobert SpeharKate SchofieldMichael KravitzKeith SappingtonChristopher Nietch
Jan Kurtz Rick ZieglerTreda SmithEvan Hornig
Debra TaylorAmina PollardPhil KaufmannSusan Cormier
Michael GriffithWilliam Swietlik
Laurie AlexanderMatthew MorrisonPatricia Shaw-Allen
OW NCEA NHEERL NRMRL
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Let us know! Contact information
Rick Ziegler [email protected] Pollard [email protected] Alexander [email protected]
OR
visit http://www.epa.gov/caddis and click on Contact Us