what’s happening up north the northwest economies steve scranton, cfa chief investment officer...
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Understanding Slow Wage GrowthTRANSCRIPT
What’s Happening Up North
The Northwest Economies
Steve Scranton, CFAChief Investment Officer & Economist
Washington Trust Bank
Understanding Slow Wage Growth
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-0
8
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-0
9
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-1
0
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-1
1
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-1
2
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-1
3
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-1
4
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-1
51.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.43.63.8
Average Hourly Earnings for All Private Payroll Employees as of 9/30/15
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
A Perspective on Part-Time Jobs Versus Full Time Jobs as of 9/30/15
• Since the recession began (December 2007)
o 1,418,000 part-time jobs (for economic reasons) have been added.
o 230,000 full-time jobs have been added
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Idaho Has The Lowest Unemployment Rate
U.S. Washington Oregon Idaho0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
5.10% 5.20%
6.20%
4.20%
Unemployment Rate as of 9/30/15Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics-Not Seasonally
Adjusted
Year-Over-Year Jobs Growth Has Been Better
With Washington and Idaho Leading the Way
U.S. Washington Oregon Idaho0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2.10%
3.10%
2.80%
3.10%
Year-Over-Year Jobs Growth as of 9/30/15Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Wage Growth Has Been Better With
Oregon Leading the Way
U.S. Washington Oregon Idaho0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
2.20%2.50%
3.80%
2.60%
Year-Over-Year Change in Average Hourly Earn-ings as of 9/30/15
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Only Washington Has Higher Wages
Than the National Average
U.S. Washington Oregon Idaho $-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$25.09
$29.42
$23.74$22.07
Average Hourly Earnings as of 9/30/15Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Oregon Has Been the Erratic Growth
Economy of the Northwest
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Annual Real GDP GrowthSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis
United States Washington Oregon Idaho
WashingtonTotal Permits
Jan-09
Apr-0
9Jul
-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-1
0Jul
-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-1
1Jul
-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-1
2Jul
-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-1
3Jul
-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-1
4Jul
-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-1
5Jul
-15 $-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
Value of Building Permits (000's) Data Through 9/30/15Source: Census Bureau
WashingtonSingle Family
Jan-09
Apr-0
9Jul
-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-1
0Jul
-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-1
1Jul
-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-1
2Jul
-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-1
3Jul
-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-1
4Jul
-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-1
5Jul
-15 $-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
Value of Permits (000's)Data Through 9/30/15
Washington5 Units or More
Jan-09
Apr-0
9Jul
-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-1
0Jul
-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-1
1Jul
-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-1
2Jul
-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-1
3Jul
-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-1
4Jul
-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-1
5Jul
-15 $-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Value of Permits (000’s)Data Through 9/30/15
Source: Census Bureau
OregonTotal Permits
Jan-09
Apr-0
9Jul
-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-1
0Jul
-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-1
1Jul
-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-1
2Jul
-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-1
3Jul
-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-1
4Jul
-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-1
5Jul
-15 $-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Value of Permits (000's)Data Through 9/30/15Source: Census Bureau
OregonSingle Family
Jan-09
Apr-0
9Jul
-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-1
0Jul
-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-1
1Jul
-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-1
2Jul
-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-1
3Jul
-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-1
4Jul
-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-1
5Jul
-15 $-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
Value of Permits (000's)Data as of 9/30/15
Source: Census Bureau
Oregon5 Units of More
Jan-09
Apr-0
9Jul
-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-1
0Jul
-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-1
1Jul
-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-1
2Jul
-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-1
3Jul
-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-1
4Jul
-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-1
5Jul
-15 $-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
Value of Permits (000's)Data Through 9/30/15Source: Census Bureau
IdahoTotal Permits
Jan-09
Apr-0
9Jul
-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-1
0Jul
-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-1
1Jul
-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-1
2Jul
-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-1
3Jul
-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-1
4Jul
-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-1
5Jul
-15 $-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
Value of Building Permits (000's)
Data through 9/30/15Source: Census Bureau
IdahoSingle Family
Jan-09
Apr-0
9Jul
-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-1
0Jul
-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-1
1Jul
-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-1
2Jul
-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-1
3Jul
-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-1
4Jul
-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-1
5Jul
-15 $-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
Value of Permits (000's)Data Through 9/30/15Source: Census Bureau
Idaho5 Units or More
Jan-09
Apr-0
9Jul
-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-1
0Jul
-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-1
1Jul
-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-1
2Jul
-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-1
3Jul
-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-1
4Jul
-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-1
5Jul
-15 $-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
Value of Permits (000's)Data Through 9/30/15Source: Census Bureau