Beyond BAU

BAU = Business As Usual

Contents

Why isn’t BAU working? The Funnel

BUA = hitting the walls of the funnel

Local Examples

Activity

Who remembers Nike?

Our Global Reality

Climate change

Peak Oil

Water shortages

Poverty

Terrorism StressDecreasing happiness

Declining trust Poor healthPollution

Increasing consumption

Population Growth

Ecosystem degradation

Growing gap between rich and poor

Supply of life supporting resources and ecosystem

services are

decliningDemand and consumption

of life supporting resources

increasing

Supply

Demand

Time

The Funnel Paradigm

NZ’s inconvenient truth

Exercise

• One minute – turn to your partner...

• Why are these facts and figures an ‘inconvenience’ for the New Zealand tourism industry?

New Zealand and Sustainability

• In 2007 at Hon. Helen Clark’s address to Parliament she stated that New Zealand was

“to be the first nation to be truly sustainable — across the four pillars of the economy, society,

the environment, and nationhood.”

• New Zealand depends on it’s ‘clean green’ image

– In 2002, tourism generated a direct contribution to GDP of $5.1 billion, or 4.5 percent

of New Zealand’s total industry contribution to GDP. (www.stats.govt.nz)

– The combined importance of New Zealand’s pastoral, horticultural and forestry

industries cannot be overstated. In current prices, it is estimated that agriculture,

horticulture and forestry, including associated processes and services, contribute a

total of approximately 18 per cent to New Zealand’s GDP. (ABARE and MAF 2006)

A few of the issues...

• Peak Oil – peak resource replenishment

• Climate change

• Population explosion

• Growing consumption habits

• Intensive farming practices

• Breakdown of social fabric

Peak Oil

Source: Greens 2008

Foodis oil

Source: Greens 2008

Climate Change

• New Zealand is extremely fortunate in respect to climate change. Our regions look to change but not drastically.

– Lower frost risk, increased extreme daily rain fall, increased frequency of high temperatures, increase in strong winds, decreased seasonal snow cover, an increase in average sea-level and temperature rise expected to speed up.

• However what we can expect is an increasing number of people wanting to come to New Zealand to escape the devastating effects of climate change on their homeland.

Population Video

• Population Video http://www.break.com/usercontent/2007/6/Population-Explosion-313350.html

2007 Regional Distribution Source: Britannica

Growing Consumption Habits

• “By virtually any measure—household expenditures, number of consumers, extraction of raw materials—consumption of goods and services has risen steadily in industrial nations for decades, and it is growing rapidly in many developing countries.”

• The United States, with less than 5 % of the global population, uses about a quarter

of the world’s fossil fuel resources—burning up nearly 25 % of the coal, 26 % of the

oil, and 27 % of the world’s natural gas.

• As of 2008, New Zealanders own 3.8 million cars. As of 18.12.08 there are 4,291,000

people. That means there are almost as many cars as there are people in NZ

• New houses in the U.S. were 38 % bigger in 2002 than in 1975, despite having fewer

people per household on average.

Ever wondered where your meat comes from?

• This is a great movie showing the ‘Truth’ about where your meat comes from.

• http://www.econation.co.nz/the-meatrix.html

• How are these farms hitting the walls of the funnel?

Summary

• Population is a major issue as the number of people inhabiting the earth continues to increase!

• Increasing consumption patterns throughout the world continue to draw from the world’s natural capital.

• But it is not all gloom… there are opportunities

• People and organisations are creating positive responses.

• The answer is not to ‘roll over’ in defeat but to stand up and take advantage of the opportunities.