what's after cloud computing?

5/26/2011

1

What Comes What Comes after the after the Cloud?Cloud?

This presentation may not be distributed without permission

David SmithCEO HBMG [email protected]

Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc

Agenda

• High Level – What is Cloud ComputingCloud Computing

• What is Driving the Future of the Cloud

• Trends for The Future

• Actions for youActions for you


5/26/2011

2

Computing Evolution

Now40’s 70’s 80’s

•Mobility explosion

•Collaboration

•High level of interconexion between users

•Web platform growing

•Pressure over companies data centre.


Origin of the term “Cloud Computing”

• “Comes from the early days of the Internet where we drew the network as a cloud… we didn’t care here the messages ent thedidn’t care where the messages went… the cloud hid it from us” – Kevin Marks, Google

• First cloud around networking (TCP/IP abstraction)

• Second cloud around documents (WWW data abstraction)


• The emerging cloud abstracts infrastructure complexities of servers, applications, data, and heterogeneous platforms– (“muck” as Amazon’s CEO Jeff Bezos calls it)


5/26/2011

3

A “cloud” is an IT service delivered to users that has:• A user interface that makes the infrastructure underlying the service

transparent to the user• Near-zero incremental management costs when additional IT resources are

added• A service management platform

Industry Trends Leading to Cloud Computing

2010• A service management platform

Grid Computing

• Solving large problems with parallel computing

Software as a Service

• Network-based subscriptions to applications

• Gained momentum in

Cloud Computing

• Next-Generation Internet computing

• Next-Generation Data Centers

19901998

2000

Utility Computing

• Offering computing resources as a metered service

• Made mainstream by Globus Alliance

2001 • Introduced in late 1990s


Even as clouds take hold, the IT landscapeis changing rapidly…

Technology is rapidly being commoditized

Businesses are more willing and able to shop for IT services

In-house IT infrastructure is increasingly seen asincreasingly seen as complex and rigid

© Harvard Business Review


5/26/2011

4

Cloud Computing - a Disruptive New Paradigm

A “cloud” is an IT service delivered to users that provides:• Simple user interface that automatically provisions IT 2015

“Clouds will transform the information technology (IT) industry… profoundly change the way people work and companies operate.”

1990

• Simple user interface that automatically provisions IT resources

• Capacity on demand with massive scalability• New application service delivery models• Platform for next generation data centers• Development in the cloud, for the cloud

2015

Software as a Service

Utility Computing

Cloud Computing


Grid Computing

Other Definitions

“Cloud computing is an emerging approach to shared infrastructure in which large pools of systems are g p ylinked together to provide IT services.” – IBM press release on “Blue Cloud”

“…a hosted infrastructure model that delivers abstracted IT resources over the Internet” – Thomas Weisel Partners LLC from “Into the Clouds: Leveraging Data Centers and the Road to Cloud Computing”

“Cloud computing describes a systems architecture. Period This particular architecture assumesPeriod. This particular architecture assumes nothing about the physical location, internal composition or ownership of its component parts.” – James Urquhart blog post


5/26/2011

5

Forrester Research

“A pool of abstracted, highly scalable, and managed compute infrastructure capable of hosting end-customer applications and billedhosting end-customer applications and billed by consumption1”

1- “Is Cloud Computing Ready for The Enterprise?” Forrester Research, Inc.

IT Trends enabling (and driven by) Cloud Computing

Increased Parallelism

New Moore’s Law - 2X processors per chip generation

Parallel software industries emerging to address challengesParallel software industries emerging to address challenges

Redundant networks and storage increasing performance

Increased Virtualization

Processing, Storage, Bandwidth, Delivery

Commodity Components

X86 servers, consumer hard drives, ethernet

Open Source SW – Freedom to customize and adapt

10

Increased Outsourcing of Core Elements

“By 2012, 80 percent of Fortune 1000 companies will pay for some cloud computing service, and 30 percent of them will pay for cloud computing infrastructure.” Gartner

5/26/2011

6

Cloud Computing 'Platform as a service' (PaaS) Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) Software as a service (SaaS)

Public Clouds Application centric cloud platforms Application-centric cloud platforms

Public clouds reduce corporate IT jobs and spend. CIOslead the charge. Private clouds become THE strategic decision for enterprise IT

Private Clouds enterprise owned or leased

Hybrid cloud y composition of two or more clouds

Community cloud shared infrastructure for specific community


Cloud Computing Delivery Models

Flexible Delivery Models

Public …Access b Ser ice pro ider

Private …P i t l d d •Access by Service provider

owned and managed.•subscription.•Delivers select set of standardized business process, application and/or infrastructure services on a flexible price per use basis.

•Privately owned and managed.

•Access limited to client and its partner network.

•Drives efficiency, standardization and best practices while retaining greater customization and control

Cloud Services

Cloud Computing Model

Hybrid …•Access to client, partner network, and third party resources

This presentation may not be distributed without permission12

...service sourcing and service value

ORGANIZATION CULTURE GOVERNANCE

.… Customization, efficiency, availability, resiliency, security

and privacy

.…Standardization, capital preservation, flexibility and

time to deploy

resources

5/26/2011

7

From http://geekandpoke.typepad.com

Agenda

• High Level – What is Cloud C tiComputing



Actions for you• Actions for you


5/26/2011

8

What led to actual phase

Terms related to Cloud Computing

VirtualizationSOAREST

Widgetmash up

Grid computing: Hw resources h i

SaasIaasPaas

sharing

Web 2.0Internet service

Bus


A Crisis of Complexity. The Need for Progress is Clear.

Explosion of information driving 54% growth in storage shipments every year.

1.5x

85% idleIn distributed computing

70¢ per $170% on average is spent on maintaining current IT infrastructures versus adding new capabilities.

computing environments, up to 85% of computing capacity sits idle.

70%+ Neverrecover

Of business never recover from a major data disaster. Copyright, 2010 ©

HBMG, Inc

5/26/2011

9

Annual Operating Costs Are Out Of Control

Worldwide IT Spending on Servers, Power, Coolingand Management/Administration

$250

4

50

Power and Cooling Costs

PhysicalServer InstalledBase (Millions)

SpendingUS$(B)

$100

$150

$200

20

25

30

35

40

45Power and Cooling CostsServer Mgt and Admin CostsNew Server Spending

$0

$50

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

5

10

15

IDC

Users Wait Too Long For New Servers

RequesterRequester

SubmitRequest

AcquireHW &SW

Install &Config.

HW

Install &Config

SW

DeployServer

Three to six months to provision a new server!


5/26/2011

10

Growth of Data


With cloud computingWithout cloud computing

Virtualized resources Automated service

management

Location independent Rapidmanagement

Standardized services Security

Rapid scalability Self-service Appliances

• Software• Hardware• Storage• Networking

• Software• Hardware• Storage


• Software• Hardware

• Storage• Networking

• Networking


5/26/2011

11

Private Clouds

Through 2012, IT organizations will invest more on private cloud services than on external cloud providers.

1010

Reasons for Private CloudLow barrier to entryElastic and scalableLower cost and pay per use

Reasons for Public CloudScale on demandIncreased agility and flexibilityP


Lower cost and pay per useIncreased agility (to

customers)Ease of sourcing migrationsMany cloud benefits —

reduced risks

Pay per useHigher compute capacitiesElasticityTime to market


Agenda






5/26/2011

12

Multiple Descriptions of the “Cloud”



5/26/2011

13

IT Trends

Ubiquitous

Cloud

Mainframe/

Client Server

Appliances

Punch

Network

InternetWEB

Virtualization

Grid

HBMG Inc. Copyright 2009

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Mainframe/Midrange

Punch Card

3,500

4,000

• Mobile

Growth at the Edge of the Network

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Pet

abyt

es/D

ay G

lob

al

Mobile • Device to Device • Sensors • Entertainment• Smart Home• Distributed

Industrial• Autos/Trucks• Smart Toys

ConvergedContent

0

500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Year

2012

Traditional Computation


5/26/2011

14

The Growth Of Complexity

DOD

HigherTechnical

Complexity

LowerManagementComplexity

HigherManagementComplexity

weaponsystem

National AirTraffic ControlSystem

Telecom switch

Large-scalesimulation

DODmanagementinformation

Enterpriseinformationsystems

Enterpriseapplication

Smallscientificsimulation

Embeddedautomotiveapplication Commercial

compiler


informationsystemBusiness

spreadsheet

LowerTechnical

Complexity

… breakthroughs like these are enabled by Innovation.Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc

5/26/2011

15

Massive Resources are Virtualized

This presentation may not be distributed without permissionCopyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc

110% Growth Last Year110% Growth Last Year

2007 2008 2009 2010

Mobile Web Usage

5/26/2011

16


Ubiquitous Computing

Laptops outsell desktops already

Handheld PCs are gaining market shareg g

Appliances become smart– Microprocessors in TVs, VCRs, refrigerators,

stoves, etc. • As the profit margin on basic

hardware gets squeezed out, smarts are the next competitive parea

Even your pet…


5/26/2011

17

Clouds and Crowds

Interactive Cloud Analytic Cloud People Cloud

Data Acquisition

Transactionalsystems

… + Sensors(physical & software)

… + Web 2.0cqu s t o syste s

Data entry(p ys ca & so t a e)

Computation Get and Put Map ReduceParallel DBMS

Stream Processing

… + Collaborative Structures (e.g.,Mechanical Turk,

Intelligence Markets)

Data Model Records Numbers, Media … + Text, Media, Natural LanguageNatural Language

ResponseTime

Seconds Hours/Days … +Continuous

The Future Cloud will be a Hybrid of These.


Consuming Cloud-Computing Services

System Infrastructure Services

Client

Application Infra Services

Client Client

Appl, Information, or Bus Process Services

A

P

I

A

P

I

P

I

AA A A

P

III

P P

• Rapid development, • Rapid hardware • Rapid application p pdeployment & change

• Greater vendor lock-in

pprovisioning & delegated hardware management

• Developer responsible for cloud optimization

p ppdeployment & change

• Maintenance & Security

Service Consumer Responsibility

Service Provider ResponsibilityCopyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc

5/26/2011

18


Virtualization for Client Computing

Hosted Virtual DesktopsArchitectural equivalent of

the blade PCthe blade PCFull "thick-client" image,

thin-client delivery model

Server Hardware

VMM

Application

PC OS PC OS

Application

PC OS

Application

codesettings

data

Windows Application Containers

temp files

Portable Personalities• Carry the bubble, not the

hardware

Target Windows Machine

p

DLLs• Portable media, stored on the network

• Bubbles of various sizes: some with OS, some without

5/26/2011

19

Continuous Improvement of Input Devices



5/26/2011

20

Ubiquitous Connectivity

This presentation may not be distributed without permissionCopyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc

For the rest of the world, this is the Internet


5/26/2011

21

AMP: Algorithms, Machines, People

Adaptive/Active Machine Learning Adaptive/Active

Machine Learning gand Analytics

gand Analytics

Massive Massive and

DiverseData

Cloud ComputingCloud ComputingCrowdSourcingCrowdSourcing

Data


Characteristics of AgentsCharacteristics of Agents

Agents coordinate and negotiate to achieve

common goals

Agents dynamically adaptto and learn abouttheir environment

Adaptive

Autonomous Mobile Interoperate

CooperativeSocial

PersonalityIntelligentAgents

InformationAgents


Agents are goal directedand act on theirown performing

tasks on your behalf

Agents moveto where they

are needed

Agents interoperatewith humans, other, legacy systems, and information sources

5/26/2011

22

Autonomic Networks

Self-configuring :Adapt automatically to the dynamically

Self-healing:Discover, diagnose, and react tothe dynamically

changing environments of link and node failures.

Self-optimizing:Monitor and tune resources automatically during an attack to minimize its attack

and react todisruptions from catastrophes and attacks.

Self-protecting:Anticipate, detect, identify, and protect against attacks from anywhere (safety )

SelfSelf--HealingHealing

SelfSelf--ProtectingProtecting

SelfSelf--OptimizingOptimizing

SelfSelf--ConfiguringConfiguring


minimize its attack during and in the aftermath.

anywhere (safety.)

Autonomic System Computing

Complex computing systems that manage themselves

Decreased need for human administrators to perform lower level tasks

Autonomic properties: Purposeful, Automatic, Adaptive, Aware

4 properties: self-healing, self-configuration, self optimization and self protection


self-optimization, and self-protection

IT labor costs are 18 times that of equipment costs.The number of computers is growing at 38% each year.


5/26/2011

23

BIO IMPACT WHEEL

StorageDevices Effectors

Pressure

Audio

RulesSensor

Awareness

Multi-DataProcesses

Chemical

EMRF

Rejuvenation

Links

Architecture

SignalsVisual

Computer SensingDevice

Query by Content/

TypeStorage

ConservationAcquisition

Transmission

Optical

Energy/Power

Computing

Prioritization DNA

Optical

Emerging

BiologicalSwitches

S.O.C.Interaction

BiologicalTypes

Solution

Bio GroupsChips

NetworkInput/Output

Sensors

Neural Networks

BIO INSPIRED

Many Architectures Many

Solutions

Tumor

Socially

Amoeba

Plants

Viral

Bio Character-

izationReproductive

Self Preservation

NetworkManagement

Rights

Network Recovery

Network Security

Load and Processing

Bio-Cognition

Non-Traditional

Friend or Foe

NaturalSelection


Evolution Improvement

Communication

Extension/Replacement

of Moore’s Law

Biologically Inspired

S.O.C.

Inter-connections

Chemical

Optical

Electrical

LinksAdaptive

Mobility

Natural Selection

Adaptation

Signal

Size

Brain Function

Ethics

Values

Risk

Uncertainty

Experience

Dreaming

Patterns

Visual Music

NeuroTransmitters Recognition

Growth

SAAS

Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc Copyright, 2009 © HBM G, Inc.

5/26/2011

24

Major Trends for Software Process

• System of systems is becoming more complex

• Increasing software criticality and need for dependability

• Increasing emphasis on end users – both inside and outside the enterprise

• Decreasing value of IT

• Geography doesn’t matter

• The fabric of software and computing is evolvingevolving• Continuous integration - continuous delivery – group mind

• Increasing software autonomy

• Combination of biology and computing


Change, Uncertainty, and Complexity

Technology Acceleration

Intangible

Virtual WorldsEconomic & Financial

Russia - China

Cyber Warfare

K-12 Science& Math Crisis

IntangibleCapital

Offshore Competition

Global TalentExplosion

English as 2nd

Terrorism

Pandemic


3 Billion New Capitalists

Demographics

Regional EconomicDislocation

Economic Unions

Flat Wages End of Moore’s Law

5/26/2011

25

Agenda






The “Cloud Pyramid”

Build upon a foundation

Layers equate structureLayers equate structure

Building blocks: Infrastructure, Platforms, Applications

Breadth vs. Niche


5/26/2011

26

The “Cloud Pyramid” Inversed

1000’s of Cloud Applications currently

Handful of Cloud PlatformsHandful of Cloud Platforms

Elite group of Cloud Infrastructure providers

# of Marketplace providers


Ensembles

An ensemble is a pool of like systems that are managed as a single system

Scale from a few to many thousands of virtual or physical– Scale from a few to many thousands of virtual or physical nodes

– Reduce management complexity with integrated virtualization, management, and security software

– Allow workload optimization for maximum performance and efficiency


5/26/2011

27


Where do we go from here?

Ideas to keep us out of the rain

20090909_VirtualizationAndCloud

54

5/26/2011

28

Cloud Computing

Universal access

Scalable Services

New Application Service Models

Feature Description

Universal access Cloud Computing’s services are ubiquitous – they can be accessed from workstations and other devices, such as cell phones

Scalable Services Scale up and scale out. Business Driven Resourcing, Highly scalable, with infrastructure managing the scaling, not applications. Cloud computing allows for elasticity, where capital and operational expenses for resources are only incurred when


p p ythey are needed

New Application Service Models

Supports parallel and persistent services


Next Generation

Cloud Computing (e.g. “Blue Cloud”)– The “network becomes the computer”

– Dumb devices ??????

Pervasive Computing– Monitoring and tracking almost anything

– The Internet is Free

Continuous Services

The Cloud + Pervasive ComputingSmart buildings


– Smart buildings

– Sensor nets

– “Invisible computing” or “ubiquitous computing”

– Semantic Interoperability

– Ad hoc networking


5/26/2011

29

Dramatic Technological Evolution

Ubiquitous Internet: 100+ million hosts– Collaboration & resource sharing the norm

Ultra-high-speed networks: 10+ Gb/sUltra-high-speed networks: 10+ Gb/s– Global optical networks

Enormous quantities of data: Petabytes– For an increasing number of communities, gating step is

not collection but analysis

Huge quantities of computing: 100+ Top/sUbiquitous computing via clusters– Ubiquitous computing via clusters

Moore’s law everywhere: 1000x/decade– Instruments, detectors, sensors, scanners

Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, IncCopyright, 2009 © HBM G, Inc.

Action Plan

Today

–Focus on virtualization and green IT for immediate cost and flexibility benefits.

–Look at storage virtualization, de-duplication and thin provisioning.

–Evaluate Web social software to transform customer/employee interactions.

–Cloud Appliances will drive value for the company

The Next 18 Months

–Exploit mashups and cloud-based services to address immediate user needs


user needs.

–Begin a plan to use the devices

–Begin to track weak signals and subtle business patterns — from everywhere.


5/26/2011

30

Action Plan

Longer Term

–Public and private cloud services together with new servers and specialized systems promise to minimize costs and maximize agility. Devices will drive most improvements

–Look for opportunities emerging from cloud computing, social networking and new approaches to infrastructure.

–The Age of Bio will come into play. InfoTech,


g p y ,NanoTech and BioTech are building synergies off of each other.

–Universal computation, connectivity and digital interoperability is the new standard


EmbeddednessThe Invisible Computer

EmbeddednessDigital convergence technologies will “form the invisible technical infrastructure for human actionanalogousinfrastructure for human actionanalogousto the visible infrastructure provided by buildings and cities.”

Embeddedness is driven by cost-effective computing, Moore’s Law, miniaturization, ubiquitous communication, and advanced

t i l d i d imaterials and sensing devices.

In 2005, 99% of computing devices sold are embedded in products and are not apparent to the product’s user.

Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc.

5/26/2011

31

In Parting: Be Paranoid

“Sooner or later, something fundamental in your business“Sooner or later, something

fundamental in your businessfundamental in your business world will change.”

Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel“Only the Paranoid Survive”

fundamental in your business world will change.”



Thank You.

David SmithCEO 512 459 2667

HBMG Inc.11211 Taylor Draper LaneSuite 200Austin TX 78759

[email protected]

Austin, TX 78759

http://www.hbmginc.com


5/26/2011

32

In Parting: Be Paranoid

“Sooner or later, something fundamental in your business“Sooner or later, something

fundamental in your businessfundamental in your business world will change.”


fundamental in your business world will change.”


Copyright, 2009 © HBM G, Inc.


what's after cloud computing?

Technology

cloud computinga cloud

term cloud computing

cloud computing ready

cloud trends

parallel computing

iscloud computing

computingcloud computing

computing evolution40s70s