what works: how do we get evidence informed policy?
DESCRIPTION
Presented at our fringe event at the Labour Party Conference 2013. Panel: Angela Eagle MP, Jill Rutter, Institute for Government, Hetan Shah, Executive Director, Royal Statistical Society, Bobby Duffy, Managing Director, Social Research Institute, Ipsos MORI, Dan Corry, Chief Executive of New Philanthropy Capital (Chair)TRANSCRIPT
Contacts:
020 7347 3000
What works: how do
we get evidence
informed policy?
@BobbyIpsosMORI
Public opinion context
and trust…
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?
Trust in clergy vs trust in scientists – a new age of
reason...?
Base: c.1,000-2,000 Source: Ipsos MORI most years face-to-face in-hom, *2012
ICM telephone ** 2013 IM telephone
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12* 13**
Clergyman/Priests Scientists
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?
Trust in civil servants vs politicians – can’t explain this…
Base: c.1,000-2,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Civil Servants Government Ministers Politicians Generally
Source: Ipsos MORI most years face-to-face in-hom, *2012
ICM telephone ** 2013 IM telephone
But messier than that…
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Politicians will take decisions partly based on what they think is right, and partly on evidence of
what works. Do you think they base their decisions more on what they think is right than on
evidence, more on evidence than on what they think is right, or do you think they consider them
both in equal measure?
The public mostly believe politicians take a principle-
based approach to policy making…
Base: 1,034 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
52
13
16
18
More on what they think isright than on evidence
More on evidence than whatthey think is right
On evidence and what theythink is right about the sameamount
Don't know
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
People have different attitudes towards statistics. Which of the following do you agree
with most?
...but parallels in people’s own use of evidence
Base: 1,034 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
46
9
18
26
Statistics are more important
than my own experiences or
those of my family and friends
in helping me keep track of how
the government is doing
My own experiences or those
of my family and friends are
more important than statistics
in helping me keep track of
how the government is doing
Both equally
Neither/Don’t know
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
For each of the statements, please could you tell me the extent to which you
agree or disagree?
And we’re not particularly clear in thinking on relative
balance between experts, public and politicians…
Base: 2,103 UK adults aged 16+, 11 October-19 December 2010
17
11
46
34
21
25
9
20
1
5
4
4
% Strongly agree % Tend to agree % Neither / nor
% Tend to disagree % Strongly disagree % Don't know
Experts and not the public should advise the Government about the
implications of scientific developments
Politicians should put scientific evidence above public opinion
when making decisions
Only 35% would prefer experts to
be in charge over politicians…
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Scepticism about data and evidence…
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75, *British Social Attitudes Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 ; *Detailed country of birth and nationality analysis from the 2011 Census of England
and Wales, (May 2013) ONS. **Immigration Statistics, January to March 2013, (May 2013) Home Office.
What percentage of the
United Kingdom
population do you
think are immigrants to
this country (i.e. not
born in the UK)?
13
31
Actual
Average estimate
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
According to the last Census in 2011, the percentage of the UK population that was born in
another country is actually 13%. Why do you think the percentage is much higher?
Why do people believe it is higher?
Base: 376 British adults aged 16-75 (all who thought the percentage of immigrants in the UK was 26% or higher) Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
56
46
36
34
23
19
16
10
1
1
3
People come into the country illegally so aren’t
counted I still think the proportion is much higher than 13%
What I see in my local area
What I see when I visit other towns/cities
I was just guessing
Information seen on TV
Information seen in newspapers
The experiences of friends and family
I misunderstood the question
Other
Don’t know
Practitioners have greater evidence
focus…
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Overall, how important, if at all, is evidence for informing decision-making in your
organisation?
Wouldn’t expect anything else…
Base: 200 interviews with public sector leaders from central and local government, NHS, and education, 7 Jan – 2 Feb 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI/Alliance for Useful Evidence
71%
25%
3% 1%
Very important
Fairly important
Not very important
Not at all important
“Strategic” or “substantive” use?
(David Whiteman)
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
When your organisation is making decisions about policies and services, where do you look for
evidence of what works?
Range of sources used – see if What Works centres appear?
Source: Ipsos MORI/Alliance for Useful Evidence
85
75
70
70
68
61
61
53
48
35
34
Academic research
Other orgs in sector
Central gov depts
Private sector
Local gov
Think tanks
Public services in other countries
Charities
NHS
Other public services in the UK
Market research companies
Base: 200 interviews with public sector leaders from central and local government, NHS, and education, 7 Jan – 2 Feb 2013
Local gov less
likely to use
central gov,
central gov less
likely to use
local gov….
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
How much trust do you have in information provided by the following types of
people?
Take everything I’ve said with pinch of salt…
Base: 1,034 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013
28
18
13
12
8
2
1
46
45
42
37
31
21
7
3
6
10
12
15
23
54
A great deal A fair amount None at all
Scientists
Academics
Accountants
Statisticians
Economists
Pollsters
Politicians
