What to Watch for in Italy's Elections

Analysis Editor's Note: The following is an internal Stratfor document produced to provide high-level guidance regarding May 31 Italian elections. This document is not a forecast but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions for areas of focus.

On May 31, Italy will conduct elections in seven of its 20 regions and over a thousand municipalities. The vote will be a political test for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, whose ruling Democratic Party is the most popular force in the country but is internally fractured. Elections will also indicate the status of the opposition, which is also divided and dealing with its own problems.

What to Monitor

The performance of the Democratic Party. The ruling party and the local forces that support it are expected to win in at least four regions: Tuscany, Marche, Umbria and Puglia. A surprise defeat for the Democratic Party in any of these regions would weaken the prime minister's position.

The situation in Campania. The vote in Campania, Italy's third most populous region, will be important to watch because the incumbent center-right politician Stefano Caldoro is in a tight competition with the Democratic Party's Vincenzo De Luca. De Luca's candidacy is controversial, because he has been convicted for abuse of office and may be forced to resign if a judge rules he is ineligible to retain his position under anti-corruption laws.

The contest in Liguria. In this northeastern region, dissident members of the ruling Democratic Party are presenting their own contender to compete against the party's official candidate. Should this

alternate candidate perform well, dissent within the party would escalate. Additional tension within the Democratic Party could undermine the prime minister's plans for constitutional reform. Friction within the center-left camp could further benefit the center-right, because Liguria is one of the few regions where the candidate representing former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia party has a chance of winning.

The battle for leadership of the Italian right. The Euroskeptic and anti-immigrationNorthern League is already expected to retain power in Veneto, so a win in this region would not significantly change Italy's political landscape. However, the vote in the rest of the country will be a test for the Northern League, which is trying to build a broader power base. The election will also show whether Berlusconi's Forza Italia is still relevant. If the Northern League outperforms Forza Italia, it will consolidate the League's pre-eminent position in the right wing.

The health of the Five Star Movement. The protest movement led by comedian Beppe Grillo has lost popularity since its strong performance in the general elections of 2013. However, it remains Italy's second largest party, attracting around 20 percent of the vote. A strong performance by the Five Star Movement in the upcoming regional and municipal elections would give new life to a somewhat weakened party.

If the Democratic Party performs well May 31, the success will reinforce Renzi's leadership and help him move forward with his reformist agenda. However, if the center-right and party dissidents defeat the Democratic Party candidates in Liguria and Campania, the losses will lead to additional conflict within the government. The elections will also test the health of the opposition, as the Northern League, the Five Star Movement and Forza Italia are struggling to attract the protest and conservative votes. So far, Renzi has benefitted from a weak and fragmented opposition. A stronger-than-expected performance by any of the opposition parties could mark a turning point in Italian politics.

Source: https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/analytic-guidance-what-watch-italys-elections