what % of u.s. homes are located in the wildland-urban interface? · 2020. 2. 20. · the wui is...
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What % of U.S. homes are located in the wildland-urban interface?
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One in three.
What % of U.S. homes are located in the wildland-urban interface?
Radeloff et al. 2017. Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk. PNAS. https://www.pnas.org/content/115/13/3314.short
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#2people & houses
Marnuzzi, S., et al, 2015, “The 2010 Wildland Urban Interface of the Conterminous United States,” USDA Forest Service, June 2015. https://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/pubs/rmap/rmap_nrs8.pdf
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https://headwaterseconomics.org
60%of Austin’s structures are in the WUI
Austin Fire Department Wildfire Division. Update on Council Resolution Presented to Public Safety Commission, April 1, 2019.
Photo: Createve Commons Tendinci
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https://headwaterseconomics.orghttps://headwaterseconomics.org
The WUI is the fastest growing land use type in the country.
Radeloff et al. 2017. Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk. PNAS. https://www.pnas.org/content/115/13/3314.short
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https://headwaterseconomics.orghttps://headwaterseconomics.org
Photo: FEMA- Andrea Booher
Wildfires are bigger, burn longer, cause more damage, and kill more
people than before.
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https://headwaterseconomics.orghttps://headwaterseconomics.org
Photo: FEMA- Andrea Booher
The problem is likely to get worse in the future.
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https://headwaterseconomics.org
Socioeconomic Tools for Wildfire Resilience in Austin
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Independent Nonpartisan Research
https://headwaterseconomics.org
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Helping communities better plan the wildland-urban interface. planningforwildfire.org
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https://headwaterseconomics.org
Austin & Community Planning Assistance for Wildfire• Featured case study
(2015)• Land Use Planning
recommendations (2016)
• Vulnerable Populations Tool (2018)
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https://headwaterseconomics.org
Three Strategies:1. Understand the true costs2. Identify vulnerable neighborhoods3. Prioritize actions that work
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https://headwaterseconomics.org
Three Strategies:1. Understand the true costs2. Identify vulnerable neighborhoods3. Prioritize actions that work
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$3 Billionper year average federal fire suppression costs
NIFC Federal Suppression Costs: https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_documents/SuppCosts.pdf
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Suppression is only 9% of total fire costs
Suppression: 9%Other Costs & Damages: 91%
Headwaters Economics. 2018. Full Community Costs of Wildfire. https://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/homes-risk/full-community-costs-of-wildfire/
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Most costs are long-term
Suppression: 9%Long-Term: 65%
Headwaters Economics. 2018. Full Community Costs of Wildfire. https://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/homes-risk/full-community-costs-of-wildfire/
Short-Term 35%
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https://headwaterseconomics.org
Most costs are long-term
Suppression: 9%Long-Term: 65%
Headwaters Economics. 2018. Full Community Costs of Wildfire. https://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/homes-risk/full-community-costs-of-wildfire/
Short-Term 35%• Evacuation and
aid relief • Road stabilization• Home and
property loss
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https://headwaterseconomics.org
Most costs are long-term
Suppression: 9%Long-Term: 65%
Headwaters Economics. 2018. Full Community Costs of Wildfire. https://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/homes-risk/full-community-costs-of-wildfire/
Short-Term 35%
• Loss of property value, tax, business revenue
• Rehabilitation• Infrastructure• Loss of ecosystem
services• Human casualties
• Evacuation and aid relief
• Road stabilization• Home and property
loss
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Nearly Half of All Wildfire Costs are Local
Local46%
State/Local17%
Other25%
Federal12%
Headwaters Economics. 2018. Full Community Costs of Wildfire. https://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/homes-risk/full-community-costs-of-wildfire/
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https://headwaterseconomics.org
Three Strategies:1. Understand the true costs2. Identify vulnerable neighborhoods3. Prioritize actions that work
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What neighborhoods are disproportionately at risk?
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What neighborhoods are disproportionately at risk?
Wildfire Hazard• Wildfire Potential• Flame Length• Rate of Spread
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https://headwaterseconomics.org
What neighborhoods are disproportionately at risk?
Socioeconomic VariablesWildfire Hazard• Wildfire Potential• Flame Length• Rate of Spread
• Families in poverty• People with disability• People with difficulty speaking English• People over 65• People under 5• Households without a car• Nonwhite population• Population and rate of change• Housing units• Adults with COPD• Adults with asthma
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Populations at Risk Report
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Normal Risk
Elevated Risk
Highest Risk
Wildfire Potential
https://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/homes-risk/austin-wildfire-population-risk/
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Normal Risk
Elevated Risk
Highest Risk
Wildfire Potential
https://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/homes-risk/austin-wildfire-population-risk/
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Normal Risk
Elevated Risk
Highest Risk
Wildfire Potential
https://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/homes-risk/austin-wildfire-population-risk/
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Above Median
PopulationGrowth
https://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/homes-risk/austin-wildfire-population-risk/
Normal Risk
Elevated Risk
Highest Risk
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Above Median
Difficulty Speaking English
https://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/homes-risk/austin-wildfire-population-risk/
Normal Risk
Elevated Risk
Highest Risk
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Above Median
Families in Poverty
https://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/homes-risk/austin-wildfire-population-risk/
Normal Risk
Elevated Risk
Highest Risk
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Above Median
Population Growth
+ Poverty
+ Difficulty English
+Nonwhite
https://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/homes-risk/austin-wildfire-population-risk/
Normal Risk
Elevated Risk
Highest Risk
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Headwaterseconomics.org Search “Austin”
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Three Strategies :1. Understand the true costs2. Identify vulnerable neighborhoods3. Prioritize actions that work
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• Mitigation Aid
• Land use decisions
Before• Transport.• Language• HealthDuring
• Prioritize aid
• HealthAfter
Equity & Resilience
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• Mitigation Aid
• Land use decisions
Before During• Prioritize
aid• Health
After
Equity & Resilience
• Health• Transportation• Language
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https://headwaterseconomics.org
• Mitigation Aid
• Land use decisions
Before During• Prioritize
aid• Health
After
Equity & Resilience
• Health• Transportation• Language
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https://headwaterseconomics.org
• Mitigation Aid
• Land use decisions
Before During• Prioritize
aid• Health
After
Equity & Resiliency
• Health• Transportation• Language
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The Home Ignition Zone
Cohen, J. The Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Problem: A Consequence of the Fire Exclusion Paradigm. Fall 2008. Forest History Today. https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_other/rmrs_2008_cohen_j002.pdf
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https://headwaterseconomics.org
The Home Ignition Zone
Cohen, J. The Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Problem: A Consequence of the Fire Exclusion Paradigm. Fall 2008. Forest History Today. https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_other/rmrs_2008_cohen_j002.pdf
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Most WUI Disasters Happen Because of Embers
Photo: Wenatchee Valley Firefighters– Sleepy Hollow Fire 2015
Finney, M.A., and J. D. Cohen. 2003. Expectation and Evaluation of Fuel Management Objectives. USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-29.
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Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safetyhttps://ibhs.org/wildfire/wildfire-demo-2019/
Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety: Wildfire Demo
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https://headwaterseconomics.org
A wildfire-resistant home is comparable in cost
Headwaters Economics. 2018. Building a Wildfire-Resistant Home: Codes and Costs. https://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/homes-risk/building-costs-codes/
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https://headwaterseconomics.org
Why aren’t we building safer communities?
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“People are naturally prone to a range of biases that inhibit long-term thinking.”
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Amnesia
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Amnesia
Optimism
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Amnesia
Optimism
Herding
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ü Implement land use planning tools
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ü Implement land use planning tools
ü Create a culture of safety
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ü Implement land use planning tools
ü Create a culture of safety
ü Prioritize resources to the people who need it most
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Example Land Use Planning Tools
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WUI Code
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Density Bonus
Photo: La Citta Vita Flikr
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Landscape Regulations
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Subdivision Standards
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Steep Slope Ordinance
NIFCPhoto: Wenatchee World
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Subdivision Standards
Landscape Regulations
Steep Slope Ordinance
Powerful Tools for Resilience
WUI Code
Density Bonus
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Risk is not evenly
distributed.
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We know how to build safer communities.
Risk is not evenly
distributed.
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We know how to build safer communities.
We can’t afford not to.
Risk is not evenly
distributed.
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https://headwaterseconomics.org
Thank you!
Kelly [email protected]://headwaterseconomics.org@headecon
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