?What is the real recession

RISKScott Langmack

!FEAR

What Analysts SayMoody’s

Lending ClubProsperOthers

Marketplace Lending Unsecured Consumer Debt

Analysts: Unemployment to Charge-Offs 1:0.8

In A Fear Cycle, Predictions Are Typically

Worse Than Reality

Most projections are more negative than reality

Both Unemployment and Impact of unemployment= compound negativity

Source: Business Insider

Analyst Consensus: Unemployment Predictions

History has shown…

Source: United States Federal Reserve

Credit Card Performance for the Past Two Decades

Comparison of $100,000 Starting Fall 2007

Why have confidence in category resilience?

Cherry-Picking The Best From Banking

A good credit score is your ticket to the American Dream

Ego, Self Worth, Personal Identity

A Substitute For 2nd Mortgages

Having The Power Of A Bank To

Destroy Defaulter’s Credit

It gets better…

Time is on our side

Source: United States Federal Reserve

Credit Card Performance for the Past Two Decades

With Time, We Have Levers To Work With To Preserve

Returns and Capital

Recession Scenario: Base

Monthly Returns

Recession

Monthly Returns

Recession Scenario: Originator Rate Increase

Recession

Monthly Returns

Recession Scenario: Adjust Term & Reserves

Recession

Monthly Returns

Recession Scenario: Custom Loan Selection

Recession

Monthly Returns

Recession Scenario: How It All Adds Up

Base

Managed

Recession

Incline Pre-Fund and Fund Starting 2008/2010

Thank You