What is the optimal number in an ensemble?

Joint Meeting of the Climate Variability and Climate Change Working Groups

Return level curves and their uncertaintyPrecipitation Extremes

http://www.isse.ucar.edu/extremevalues/evtk.html

Return level curves and their uncertaintyTemperature Extremes

http://www.isse.ucar.edu/extremevalues/evtk.html

Single-model ensembles and multi-model ensembles

Heat Wave index

Single-model ensembles and multi-model ensembles

Heat Wave index

Single-model ensembles and multi-model ensembles

Max 5 Day Precipitation index

Single-model ensembles and multi-model ensembles

Max 5 Day Precipitation index

Single-model ensembles and multi-model ensembles

Extreme Temperature Range index

Single-model ensembles and multi-model ensembles

Extreme Temperature Range index

Single-model ensembles and multi-model ensembles

Warm Nights index

Single-model ensembles and multi-model ensembles

Warm Nights index

Single-model ensembles and multi-model ensembles

Precipitation Intensity index

Single-model ensembles and multi-model ensembles

Precipitation Intensity index

Marginal utility vs. marginal cost of additional ensemble members

Single-model ensembles vs. multi-model ensembles

Analyzing “super ensembles” where different models provide different numbers of ensemble members