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What is the future of In-store Brand, Performance & Consumer Behaviour? September 2011 Presented by Gareth Pearson BMI Research 1

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Page 1: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

What is the future of In-store

Brand, Performance &

Consumer Behaviour?

September 2011

Presented by Gareth PearsonBMI Research

1

Page 2: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

2

South Africa’s GDP

Source: SARB

Note: Percentage change at seasonally adjusted annualized rates

5.1%

2.5%

5.5%

1.3%

-0.7%

3.7%

-7.4%-2.8%

0.9%3.2%

-1.8%

4.8%2.8%

2.7%

4.5%2.8%

4.8%

-8.0%

-5.5%

-3.0%

-0.5%

2.0%

4.5%

7.0%

GDP % Change

Page 3: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

3

South Africa’s Retail Sales

2.3%

0.4%

-1.0%

-0.4%

-2.4%

-5.4%

-3.3%

-3.4%

1.3%

4.9%

6.2%

7.7%

5.6%

-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2011 2010 2009 2008

% change y/y at constant 2008 prices

Year-on-Year % Retail Sales at constant 2008 prices

Source: Stats SA

Page 4: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Our Shopper- recession impact

4

• tighter family income vs. continued inflation

• seeking VALUE from retailers and wholesalers with intensity and vigour

• convenience has a price

• consumers are drinking & eating more @home

• price point centric – reduce pack sizes

• down trading : premium – mid – econo

• focus on promotional purchases

Page 5: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Our Retailers- recession impact

5

• offering longer print promotions

• offering 3 for 2’s and value promotions

• much more effort on price competitiveness

• focusing on optimising product ranging

• focus on promotions – wider use by all retailers

Page 6: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

So what’s new?

6

Page 7: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Retail Shelf – the battleground

7

Page 8: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Case Study- shelf health for soap

8

• forward share

• promotional spend

• in store promotions

• regional share

Page 9: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

9

% Share of Shelf

Total

Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E

2011Q1 20.65% 6.35% 26.22% 14.95% 31.83%

2011Q2 18.22% 6.28% 27.55% 15.20% 32.75%

2011Q3 21.14% 6.58% 26.61% 13.77% 31.90%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

2011Q1

2011Q2

2011Q3

Page 10: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

10

No. of Ad’s Total

Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E

2011Q1 803 268 536 801 801

2011Q2 764 255 510 765 765

2011Q3 778 259 518 777 777

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2011Q1

2011Q2

2011Q3

Page 11: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

11

% Share of Display

Total

Brand A Brand C Brand D Brand E Brand B

2011Q1 20.00% 24.62% 18.46% 23.08% 13.85%

2011Q2 29.41% 19.12% 17.65% 22.06% 11.76%

2011Q3 31.25% 22.50% 15.00% 25.00% 6.25%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

2011Q1

2011Q2

2011Q3

Page 12: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

12

No of Type of Display

Total

2011Q

1

2011Q

2

2011Q

3

2011Q

1

2011Q

2

2011Q

3

2011Q

1

2011Q

2

2011Q

3

2011Q

1

2011Q

2

2011Q

3

2011Q

1

2011Q

2

2011Q

3

Brand A Brand C Brand D Brand E Brand B

Dump Bin 2 3 4 2 1 2 2 3

FSU 1 3 5 2 1 1 3 1 1 1

GE 4 1 5 3 7 3 2 2 5 3 9 3 2 3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Dump Bin

FSU

GE

Page 13: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

13

Share of Shelf by Region

Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E

E Cape - 2011Q1 18.93% 4.12% 27.39% 16.86% 32.70%

E Cape - 2011Q2 16.18% 3.78% 30.57% 16.13% 33.35%

E Cape - 2011Q3 18.63% 4.88% 28.12% 14.35% 34.02%

FS - 2011Q1 23.02% 7.09% 23.61% 13.84% 32.43%

FS - 2011Q2 22.06% 7.11% 25.71% 12.78% 32.35%

FS - 2011Q3 24.36% 8.02% 24.31% 14.44% 28.87%

Gauteng - 2011Q1 21.61% 7.17% 25.70% 14.07% 31.44%

Gauteng - 2011Q2 18.47% 7.06% 26.88% 14.70% 32.89%

Gauteng - 2011Q3 21.66% 7.37% 25.87% 12.28% 32.82%

KZN - 2011Q1 23.00% 8.34% 22.18% 15.50% 30.98%

KZN - 2011Q2 20.79% 8.19% 24.33% 14.59% 32.10%

KZN - 2011Q3 26.62% 7.91% 24.94% 13.90% 26.63%

W Cape - 2011Q1 17.42% 4.95% 30.05% 15.43% 32.14%

W Cape - 2011Q2 16.21% 5.29% 29.02% 17.15% 32.33%

W Cape - 2011Q3 17.52% 4.97% 28.83% 16.25% 32.42%

0.00%5.00%

10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%

E Cape - 2011Q1

E Cape - 2011Q2

E Cape - 2011Q3

FS - 2011Q1

FS - 2011Q2

FS - 2011Q3

Gauteng - 2011Q1

Gauteng - 2011Q2

Gauteng - 2011Q3

KZN - 2011Q1

KZN - 2011Q2

KZN - 2011Q3

W Cape - 2011Q1

W Cape - 2011Q2

W Cape - 2011Q3

Page 14: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

14

Share of Shelf PnP

Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E

2011Q1 20.80% 7.50% 24.48% 15.23% 31.99%

2011Q2 18.44% 7.28% 26.76% 14.79% 32.73%

2011Q3 21.73% 7.27% 24.83% 14.39% 31.77%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

2011Q1

2011Q2

2011Q3

Page 15: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

15

Share of Shelf Shoprite

Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E

2011Q1 18.93% 4.74% 24.38% 15.77% 36.18%

2011Q2 17.95% 4.91% 27.47% 14.89% 34.78%

2011Q3 19.86% 4.78% 28.66% 14.23% 32.47%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

2011Q1

2011Q2

2011Q3

Page 16: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

16

Share of Shelf Spar

Brand A Brand B Brand C Brand D Brand E

2011Q1 23.38% 9.05% 27.17% 9.70% 30.69%

2011Q2 18.15% 9.67% 28.46% 10.99% 32.73%

2011Q3 22.66% 8.99% 29.71% 9.05% 29.60%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

2011Q1

2011Q2

2011Q3

Page 17: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

In store Brand Performance

Dash Board – Brand "A" August 2011

17

IN STORE KPI Brand “A”

MONTHLY

SCORE

YTD

SCORE

MONTHLY

TARGET

YTD

TARGET

OOS (2 observations) (480/600) (3960/4800)

Organogram compliance (272/300) (2176/2400)

In store promotional - Gondola

End (255/300) (2284/2400)

In store promotional - Dump Bin (290/300) (1921/2400)

Shelf quality (eye level, category) (180/300) (1760/2400)

Forward share % (35%) (38%)

Shelf exposure (cm) (8180/9000) (61200/72000)

Page 18: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Shelf Health CheckStore 321 (12 - 17 September)

18

Drop 1 , Shelf 5 # HFacings# Total

Facings# VFacings # Stock

Drop : Shelf Position

Shelf #Correct

Placement: y/n

6001049110518 BRAND "A" PROCESSED CHEESE SLICES SWEETMILK 400GR 1 1 1 24 1 5 N

6001049110495 BRAND "A" CHEDDAR SLICES 400GR 1 29 1 5 N

6001049110457 BRAND "A" CHEDDAR SLICES 400GR 1 23 1 5 N

6001049110471 BRAND "A" PROCESSED CHEESE SLICES BILTON 400GR 2 30 1 5 N

6001180066767 BRAND "B" BIG EASY SLICE

6001180633783 BRAND "B" SINGLES 200GR 1 1 1 18 1 5 N

600104110556 BRAND "A" BILTONG 200GR 2 3 2 56 1 5 N

6001049110570 BRAND "A" WITH CHEDDAR 2 2 1 45 1 5 N

# HFacings Number of Horizontal Facings touching Shelf

# Total Facings Number of Total Facings

# Stock Complete Physical Count of prd

Fwd ShareForward Share Prd start to Prd end, measurement (cm's)

Drop : Shelf Position Drop 1 furthest to the left = 1

Shelf # Shelf 1 = Top Shelf of Drop for majority or first if a few

Correct Placement: y/n if 1 prd is out of line mark as No

Page 19: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Merchandising Performance

OOS

• costs retailers (4% of annual revenue) & manufacturers(2.5%)

• 30% between factory and store site

• 70% between store stock to shelf (50 m)

• data accuracy

• inaccurate forecasting

• ordering

• shelf capacity and shelf management are pivotal to success

19

Page 20: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Merchandising Performance….

OOS Consequences

• OOS translates to

• brand substitution

• cancel purchase

• buy from another store

• repeated OOS experiences negatively impact brand equity (product and store)

• labour cost, shoppers seeking assistance from packers

• effective execution throughout chain is essential

• impartial tracking and management can translate to significant upside

• real time dashboard to monitor merchandisers

20

Page 21: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Pricing Strategy

21

Regional Pricing

EDLP

Promotional Pricing

High Low

Page 22: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

EDLP

22

• promising shoppers low price on selected items without the need to wait for sale price events or comparison shop

• premise is that shopper loyalty is developed

• saves retailer effort and expense of marking prices down

Source: Wikipedia

Page 23: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

High Low

23

• products offered are regularly priced higher than competitors

• lower promotional prices are targeted to increase footfall

• shoppers then offered these and other higher prices products

Source: Wikipedia

Page 24: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Pricing Strategy

• tactically important to monitor weekly

• monitor competitors in store pricing and own (compliance)

• introduce promotional pricing when appropriate

• react tactically and strategically

• use science and available intel

24

Page 25: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Promotional Pricing –August 2011

25

R 14.99

R 12.99

R 16.99

R 16.77

R 13.99

R 17.49

12%8%

3%

CHECKERS

HYPERAMA

COMBINED

SHOPRITE CAMBRIDGE FOODS

Clover Fresh Milk 2L

Promotion RSP

R 12.99R 12.99

R 12.99

R 11.99

0%-8%

METRO HYPER PICK N PAY FAMILY

SUPERMARKET

Coca Cola Coke 2L

Promotion RSP

Page 26: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Promotional Pricing –August 2011

26

R 23.99

R 20.99

R 20.99

R 23.99

R 21.64

R 20.99

0%3%

0%

FRUIT-VEG CITY SPAR MAKRO

ACE Super Maize Meal 5kg

Promotion RSP

R 14.99

R 12.99

R 16.99

R 16.77

R 13.99

R 17.49

12%8%

3%

CHECKERS

HYPERAMA

COMBINED

SHOPRITE CAMBRIDGE FOODS

Black Cat Peanut Butter 400g

Promotion RSP

Page 27: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Promotional Pricing –August 2011

27

R 17.99R 17.99

R 19.99R 18.49

R 18.08

R 19.99

3% 1% 0%

CHECKERS

HYPERAMA

COMBINED

SHOPRITE FRUIT-VEG CITY

Selati White Sugar 2.5kg

Promotion RSP

R 17.99 R 19.99R 18.95

R 19.27 R 21.87 R 19.73

7%9%

4%

SHOPRITE PICK N PAY

HYPERMARKET

SPAR

Five Roses Teabags 100

Promotion RSP

Page 28: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Promotions –offering value

• correct products - basket

• 3 for 2 Options

• combo deals

28

Page 29: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Shopper vs. Consumer

• consumer - exposed to holistic, multi-layered communication

• shopper – exposed to rapid communication and transitory, relying on visuals & symbols

• consumer is integral to consumption, driving awareness and visibility, triggering brand identity & communicating specific message

• shopper communication can be used to elicit and support brand equity

• POS signs, displays, in store media are unique to retail

29

Page 30: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Types of Shoppers

30

Page 31: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Future Consumer

• rising inflation constrained by tighter family income

• access to more data to support better purchase decisions

• seeking value through promotions and value buying

• brand stakeholder - SMR

• once in store greater propensity to “buy more”

31

Page 32: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

32

Future Consumer

• time poor, data rich

• growing collaborative power – social media

• health, longevity and product source – major

drivers

• price pressure – electricity, fuel, tolls, inflation

• job losses – multiplier effect

Page 33: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

CPG Manufacturer Trends

33

• increasing input costs = pressure on margins

• packaging prices are up due to oil price

• energy price increases

• smaller players are experiencing declining volumes

• market pricing more aggressive

• margin pressure resulting in business strategy changes

• imports are increasing as strong Rand makes these products cheaper

• retailers are requesting smaller pack sizes

Page 34: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Ranging

• select product from whole range, including products not merchandised in store previously

• remove poor sellers

• CPG company needs to produce & offer products which sell

• successful ones have done their homework and becoming an essential part of a retailers range is highly beneficial

• store specific meeting a localised need

• best product mix within store parameters (size, customer base, seasonality)

• relevant vs full product range

• dynamic 34

Page 35: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Optimizing brand performance in store

• optimal type of in store communication

• visual brand triggers

• communication on pack

• visibility of packaging

• marketers have traditionally focused on building “brand equity

• brand power in the mind of the consumer

35

Page 36: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Case Study Chocolate Bars Local Market Performance vs.

GDP vs. PCE

36

Page 37: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Market Trends – Count Lines

37

• count lines increased by 17.6% in 2010

• category grew despite the high price increases

Growth seen in this sector attributed to the following;

• active participation of major players in promotional activity

• advertising campaigns

• outdoor advertising

• promotional competitions

• sponsorships by leading manufacturers of count lines

• new packaging designs

• soccer world cup centred promotions

• price promotions

Advertising, promotional activities, innovation

Page 38: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Market Trends – Health Bars

38

• health bars increased 4.5%

• general retail remains the most popular

distribution channel for health bars

The growth seen in this category over the years

could be attributed to the following;

• product innovation such as the reformulated

of Special K bars

• introduction of new brands and new flavours

Page 39: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

39

% Share of PrintNo Ads by Retail Group

FoodsNov – Dec 2009 vs. Nov - Dec 2010

44.1%

33.2%

8.5% 8.0%

4.1%

1.5%0.5%

51.7%

29.0%

7.3% 6.6%

3.1%1.9%

0.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Shoprite Pick 'n Pay Spar Massmart Fruit-Veg MetCash Woolworths

2009

2010

During the festive season when the overall ad spend is

expected to be higher year-on-year, only Shoprite and

Masscash increased advertising spend significantly. Perhaps

a sign of the slow recovering economy

Total Market Spend 2010 = R160 mil

Total Market Spend 2009 = R145 mil

Page 40: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

40

Ads by Product Group and Retail Group in 2010

Nov - Dec 2009 vs. Nov - Dec 2010

37.6%

4.2%5.0%

20.0%

3.2%1.9%

4.5%

1.3%0.3%

2.8%1.6% 2.1%

1.1%0.3% 0.1%

1.4%0.3% 0.1%0.3% 0.0% 0.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

NUTRITION REFRESHMENTS CONFECTIONERY

Shoprite

Pick 'n Pay

Spar

Massmart

Fruit-Veg

5.2%

2.5% 2.3%

32.2%

23.4%

3.0%

1.9% 0.9%0.3%

2009

2010

Page 41: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

41

R 0

R 1 000 000

R 2 000 000

R 3 000 000

R 4 000 000

R 5 000 000

R 6 000 000

R 7 000 000

SHOPRITE PICK N PAY MASSMART CLICKS SPAR

2010Q1

2011Q1

Shoprite Continues

Advertising Spend

Adspend by Retail Group Confectionery

Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11

Total Market Spend 2010 = R 8 mil

Total Market Spend 2011 = R 9.6 mil

Page 42: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

42

R 0

R 500 000

R 1 000 000

R 1 500 000

R 2 000 000

R 2 500 000

R 3 000 000

R 3 500 000

R 4 000 000

R 4 500 000

R 5 000 000

CHOCOLATE ASSORTMENT CHOCOLATE BARS SLABS CHOCOLATE COUNTLINE SWEETS

2010Q1

2011Q1

Increase in spend

driven by Shoprite

Adspend by Category

ConfectioneryJan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11

Total Market Spend 2010 = R 8 mil

Total Market Spend 2011 = R 9.6 mil34%

30%26%

-14%

Page 43: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

43

Ad spend by BrandChoc Assortment Top 15

Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11

R 0

R 100 000

R 200 000

R 300 000

R 400 000

R 500 000

R 600 000

R 700 000

R 800 000

2010Q1

2011Q1

Cadbury decline by all Retailers

Ferrero Increase driven by PnP

Tiffany, Whitakers, Diamond, Hollander,

Azure – Shoprite Housebrand

11%

-50%

5%

-10%

Total Market Spend 2010 = R 3.4 mil

Total Market Spend 2011 = R 4.7 mil

Page 44: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

R 0

R 100 000

R 200 000

R 300 000

R 400 000

R 500 000

R 600 000

R 700 000

R 800 000

2010Q1

2011Q1

Cadbury increase - PnP & Massmart

(Game)

Beacon decline – PnP & Clicks

+165%

50%

-34%

Adspend by Brand SlabsJan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11

Total Market Spend 2010 = R 1 mil

Total Market Spend 2011 = R 1.26 mil

Page 45: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

R 0

R 100 000

R 200 000

R 300 000

R 400 000

R 500 000

R 600 000

R 700 000

2010Q1

2011Q1

Nestle decline – PnP, Massmart &

Clicks

Cadbury increase – Shoprite

39%

7%

400%

-26%

166%

Adspend by Brand Count lineJan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11

Total Market Spend 2010 = R 1.5 mil

Total Market Spend 2011 = R 1.9 mil

Page 46: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

R 0

R 100 000

R 200 000

R 300 000

R 400 000

R 500 000

R 600 000

R 700 000

R 800 000

2010Q1

2011Q1265%

36%

-25%

-15%

Adspend by Brand SweetsTop 10

Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11

Total Market Spend 2010 = R 2 mil

Total Market Spend 2011 = R 1.8 mil

Beacon decline – All

Manhattan decline – Shoprite

Sally Williams (Nougat) Spend – Shoprite

Wedgewood (Nougat) Spend– Shoprite & PnP

Page 47: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Inflation/DeflationPromotional Pricing

Top 20 Promoted SKU’s Jan – March 10 vs. Jan – March 11

SKU 2010 2011 % Inc/Dec

BEACON PREPACKS 400 GRAMS R 16.99 R 14.99 -11.77%

BEACON MARSHMALLOWS 400 GRAMS R 9.99 R 8.99 -10.01%

BEACON CHOCOLATE SLAB 100 GRAMS R 5.99 R 5.49 -8.35%

BEACON CHOCOLATE SLABS 100 GRAMS R 5.99 R 5.59 -6.68%

BEACON MARSHMALLOWS 150 GRAMS R 4.99 R 4.79 -4.01%

BEACON MARSHMALLOWS 125 GRAMS x 4 R 20.00 R 20.00 0.00%

BEACON FAVOURITES 200 GRAMS R 21.99 R 21.99 0.00%

FERRERO ROCHER 200 GRAMS R 39.99 R 39.99 0.00%

BEACON CHOCOLATE SLAB 200 GRAMS R 9.99 R 9.99 0.00%

MANHATTAN MARSHMALLOWS 150 GRAMS R 4.99 R 4.99 0.00%

BEACON CHOCOLATE SLABS 200 GRAMS R 9.99 R 9.99 0.00%

CADBURY ENDEARMINTS 120 GRAMS R 5.99 R 5.99 0.00%

WILSONS JELLY TOTS 100 GRAMS R 4.99 R 4.99 0.00%

NESTLE PASSIONS CHOCOLATES 300 GRAMS R 39.95 R 39.99 0.10%

CADBURY CHOCOLATE SLABS 90 GRAMS R 6.79 R 6.89 1.47%

CADBURY CHOCOLATE SLABS 180 GRAMS R 12.49 R 12.99 4.00%

CADBURY WHISPERS 150 GRAMS R 18.99 R 19.99 5.27%

CADBURY MILK TRAY 250 GRAMS R 34.99 R 36.99 5.72%

CADBURY WHISPERS 200 GRAMS R 22.99 R 24.99 8.70%

Page 48: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Case Study - Bottled Water

48

40.1

42.1

35.6

13.4

13.1

5.0

32.8

33.4

30.4

4.9

3.3

4.2

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Annual Volume Growth Annual Value Growth

Value growth has consistently outstripped volume growth for many years, with cost-pull

inflation pushing up bottled water prices.

Recession derailed

double

digit growth path

Page 49: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Bottled Water vs. GDP vs. PCE

49

32

.8%

33

.4%

30

.4%

4.9

%

3.3

%

4.2

%

4.9

%

5.0

%

5.1

%

4.0

%

-2.7

%

1.8

%6.9

%

8.2

%

7.0

%

5.5

%

-1.3

%

-0.9

%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

% Growth Category % GDP Growth % PCE Growth

Page 50: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Bottled Water Trends

50

• bottled water up 27.0%p.a (1998-2007)

• growth in popularity of bottled water was exceptional

• increase of 33.3% in 2009 & 4.2% in 2010

• recession translated into a decline in growth for bottled water

• limited players who had entered the market were forced to close down as the market became more competitive

• cost-pull inflation pushed up bottled water prices

Page 51: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Future Category Demand Segment Sizing Forecasting

• new Segment Sizing Projection Model (SSPM)

• model predicts product demand by volume & value for selected segments

• LSM, Age, Gender, Ethnic group, Region and many other segments

• this model offers great speed – speed is pulling & calculating figures to allow more time for insights

• minutes rather than days or weeks

• any sector & offers a complete solution for population dynamics

• brand owners can now predict future volume demand of both the product category & brand

• AMPS can be easily adapted to transfer the relevant data for other sources, Homescan or Continuous Tracking

51

Page 52: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

52

BMI Segmentation Model –Bottled Wine 2009

LSM 4 LSM 5 LSM6 LSM 7

1 POPULATION 8 412 404 7 915 121 5 566 786 2 808 067

2 TOTAL MARKET (KL) 16 862 22 190 30 469 15 029

3 % VOLUME 11.8 15.5 21.3 10.5

4 PCC per annum ( 2/1 ) - ml 2 004 2 803 5 473 5 352

5 % USING 3.7 4.6 4.6 5.3

6 NO OF USERS ( 1/5) 313 550 363 096 257 971 149 691

7 USER PCC per annum ( 2/6) - ml 53 780 61 113 118 113 100 401

8 PCC ' UNITS ' per day 147 167 323 274

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53

BMI Segmentation Model –Bottled Wine LSM 7

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1 POPULATION 2 808 067 2 785 877 2 764 057 2 742 844 2 722 848 2 703 987

2 TOTAL MARKET (KL) 15 029 15 956 15 759 15 665 15 473 15 186

3 % VOLUME 10.5 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6

4 PCC per annum ( 2/1 ) - ml 5 352 5 727 5 701 5 711 5 682 5 616

5 % USING 5.3 5.13 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.1

6 NO OF USERS ( 1/5) 149 691 142 851 134 521 126 083 117 812 109 695

7 USER PCC per annum ( 2/6) - ml 100 401 111 698 117 154 124 249 131 344 138 439

8 PCC ' UNITS ' per day 274 305 320 340 359 379

Page 54: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

Retail Renaissance - Tesco Mobile Application

54

• scan barcode

• check stock availability

• select delivery date

• offer price

• enter quantity

• check out

• delivery

www.tesco.com

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55

Retail Renaissance

• OFF=ON: How the benefits of shopping online can now be had offline by consumers too.

• RETAIL SAFARI: How experiences still rule.

• INSTANT STATUS FIX: How shopping in the real world delivers instant status gratification in a way that online (still) can’t.

• CITYSUMERS: The future of consumerism is urban, and urban culture is retail culture. On a global level.

Source: trendwatching.com

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56

Bringing the best of online to the real world

In February 2011, JC Penney, the US department store, rolled out its findmore service to 120 stores across the US. In-store, 42 inch touch screens allow shoppers to view the retailer’s full online catalogue, check inventory levels in local stores, share products with friends and scan product bar codes to receive extra information and complementary product recommendations.

Source: trendwatching.com

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57

Retail Renaissance

•Singapore-based mobile operator SingTel launched their flagship store in

Singapore’s Comcentre in July 2011. The store’s exterior glass walls have

embedded interactive digital touchscreens in them, meaning that the store is

effectively open 24/7 Source: trendwatching.com

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58

Retail Renaissance

•Home plus, the Korean branch of Tesco, recently launched a series of virtual

stores on subway platforms, enabling customers to make purchases using their

smartphones while they wait for a train. During the campaign, Home plus online

sales increased by 130%, with over 10,000 customers trying the stores.

Source: trendwatching.com

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59

Retail Renaissance

•US drugstore Duane Reade opened a flagship store on Wall Street in July

2011. As well as a pharmacy and onsite doctor, the store contains hair and nail

salons, virtual makeover kiosks, secure cell phone charging stations for

customers while they shop, and a shoe shine service (the latter's proceeds

going to charity).Source: trendwatching.com

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60

Retail Renaissance

The Financial Times reported in July 2011 that Tesco, the UK based supermarket was piloting free in-store wifi, allowing customers to check prices online and read product reviews. Nordstrom, Sam’s Club and Home Depot in the US already offer similar services in many stores.

Source: trendwatching.com

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61

Retail Renaissance

The Financial Times reported in July 2011 that Tesco, the UK based supermarket was piloting free in-store wifi, allowing customers to check prices online and read product reviews. Nordstrom, Sam’s Club and Home Depot in the US already offer similar services in many stores.

Source: trendwatching.com

Page 62: What is the future of instore brand performance  consumer behaviour

So what’s new?

62

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63

BMI Core Products and

Services

AVI

Coca Cola

Brandhouse

Distell

Nestle

Reckitt & B

Tiger

Pioneer

Unilever

ISOSISOSPrintPrint

AdsAds

AnnualAnnual

MarketMarket

QuantificationQuantification

CommissionedCommissioned

Rest of AfricaRest of AfricaLISPLISP

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64

Thank Thank

YouYou

www.bmi.co.zawww.bmi.co.za