what is “risk”? “a situation involving exposure to danger” (oxford) combination of: ...
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What is “risk”?
“a situation involving exposure to danger” (Oxford)
Combination of: Likelihood of occurrence
X Consequences of occurrence
RAF Technical Overview
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Common approach Enhances understanding – nature of risks Identifies critical factors Utilizes evidence Addresses gaps and uncertainties Promotes collaboration on shared risks
Results in transparent and accountable public policy and decisions in natural resource management
NFPS Risk Analysis Framework
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Likelihood of occurrence where? when?
Some concepts and terms…
Consequences of occurrence what?
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Transparency
Some concepts and terms…
“easy to see through, understand, or recognize; obvious” (Collins)
operating in such a way that it is easy for others to see what actions are taken, and why
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Ecosystem services
Some concepts and terms…
“benefits people obtain from ecosystems ” (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment 2005)
examples: carbon sequestration water and air purification nutrient dispersal and cycling industrial products recreation energy
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Triggers
Some concepts and terms…
pest
pathway/commodity
ecosystem
Trigger - forest pest threat of some kind
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Increasing numbers of pathways
Plant pests have always been spread via man’s activities
World Trade Organisation (WTO) has broken down trade barriers
Global trade dramatically increased during 20th Century
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Increasing numbers of pathways
Source: WTO data http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch5en/conc5en/worldexports.html
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Pathway
Any means that allow the entry or spread of a pest; could be…
an imported commodity a means of transportation or
storage packaging, or other articles
associated with the commodity a natural means of spread (e.g.,
wind)
A commodity is a plant or plant product being moved for trade or other purposes
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Examples
A request to import something that has not previously been imported from the proposed country of origin
A different end-use is proposed for a commodity that is already being imported
A new treatment is proposed for a commodity that is already being imported
An interception is made Live pests are found on a previously unidentified pathway or
commodity
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Pathway Description
The more you know about the pathway, the more accurate the PRA will be and the more effective or appropriate any subsequent phytosanitary measures will be
Ask questions Consider all aspects of pathway Get detailed descriptions Understand it
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Looming ESBW outbreak in eastern Quebec
SBW RA case study - Triggers
losses experienced in the previous outbreak would have a significant negative impact on wood supply today
forestry landscape has changed since the last OB
limited protection options available
Needed a real life case for development of the framework
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MPB RA case study - Triggers
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SOD RA case study - Triggers
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Management goals broad objectives carry a social mandate e.g. maintain healthy forest ecosystems
-- A common context for Pest RA – Adapted from Suter 1993
Assessment endpoints translate mgmt goals into conceptual model satisfy social objectives e.g. maintain expected supply of timber; other values
Setting Objectives
Measurement endpoints operational definitions can be measured e.g. black spruce growing stock; mature conifer habitat
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biologically relevant
Endpoints
important to society unambigously defined operationally feasible predictable and measurable susceptible to hazard
Suter 1993
Setting Objectives
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Scope (of the RA)
Setting Objectives
Objectives
Resources Time
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statements of desired outcomes of the RA
Objectives can be…
questions to be answered
Setting Objectives
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Case studies’ experience…
Setting objectives
Setting Objectives
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ESBW case study - Objectives
Consultation with MRNQ
Synthesis of research knowledge Likely impacts of various stand types Intervention options Evaluate preventative measures
Evaluate SBW DSS as a tool Contribute to dev of NFPS RA Framework
Setting Objectives
Others…