what is old is new again
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What is Old is New AgainPanel:
Allison PorterElizabeth BrunsDavid Saunders
Nancy Sturm
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NMAI Analytics Case Study Presented by:
David Saunders, Director of MembershipNational Museum of the American Indian
4th Street and Independence Ave., SWWashington, DC 20026
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National Museum of the American IndianEstablished in 1989 as part of the Smithsonian Institution
Opened on the National Mall in 2004
First national museum dedicated exclusively to Native Americans and the first to present exhibitions from a Native viewpoint.
Collection of more than 800,000 objects representing 12,000 years of history and more than 1,200 indigenous cultures from throughout the Americas, and 300,000 photographic images from the 1860s to the present day
An institution of living cultures, NMAI offers exhibitions , performing arts programs, lectures and symposia, research opportunities, educational activities, interactive websites, traveling exhibitions, and community programs.
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Membership Program
Established in 1991 as part of a 15-year capital campaign to open three facilities in New York, Suburban Maryland, and Washington, DC
Current membership of 40,000 households nationwide
70% of members live outside the DC and NYC metropolitan areas
300,000 individual members have donated more than $54,000,000 over the past 21 years
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Post opening, file size began to shrink rapidly, from more than 80,000 in 2005 to approximately 55,000 in 2008
Museum Opening
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Primary Reason for Decline
Natural drop-off in members after the initial fundraising push to open the museum
Decrease in budget: between 2005 and 2009, acquisition funding was reduced by 24%
One-Two
Punch!
Increase in web giving was not making up for the decreased file size; direct mail remained the predominant giving channel
FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
$4,500,000
$5,000,000
Mail TM Web
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Existing donors were loyal, but giving remained flat
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
$45 $43$40 $38 $37
$74
$64 $63
$71$67
DM Acquired Web Acquired
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Consumer Confidence Index Comparisons
Stabilize File Attrition◦ Identify new prospect lists◦ Reactivate lapsed donors◦ Improve results through testing and cost reduction
Increase Member Value◦ Decrease dependence on premiums◦ Expand multi-channel integration and cultivation◦ Develop improved upgrading strategies
Maximize Efficiencies for Cost Savings◦ Use of gang printing and standardized package formats
Goals
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Increased Reinstatement Efforts
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY110
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
DM New Joins WEB JOINS Acquisition Reinstates
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• To date the $22 Ask and $25 ask donors look very similar.
• The $22 Ask brought in 21% more donors.
• These numbers are from the acquisition campaign mailed in November 2008.
Different ask strategy: little impact on donor value
Acquisition DM Campaign Testing
Oct 2009 Plain Carrier Test
Increased response by 10%
Oct ’10 Plain Carrier
Test
Same RR% as Control,
16% higher average gift
Social Justice Contro
l
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And more testing…
Oct ‘10 Member Card Test
23% lower RR% than control
Not a winner
Dec ‘10 Survey w/ Premiums & Teaser Test
Rev/m 60% higher than no premiums and 32% higher than Control
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And even more testing…..
May ’11 Survey w/ Premiums & Teaser Re-Test
Rev/m 35% higher than package with label only and 32% higher than Control
Co-Control rolled-out Feb ‘12
Aug ’11 Postcard Test
23% lower rev/m than note
card controlNot a winner
August ‘11 Social Justice
Letter Test
Rev/m 18% higher than control- no
statistically relevant winner
Re-test in FY12
Feb ’11 No Insert and 2 NC Test
Removal of insert and NC decreased RR%
Not a winner
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Appeal EffortsSurveys and Recognition
Appeal Revenue has steadily
increased between FY09 and FY11
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Calendars!
Soft ask included in Sustainer Segment – highest performing segment at 9.8%
July 2011 Appeal: CalendarHighest Response in FY 11% - 6% increase
over FY10exceeded budgeted Net Revenue by 40%
Sept 2011 Appeal: Calendar Follow Up
Additional appeal effort in FY11
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Monthly Renewals
Five out of six packages in the series were reformatted from an 8 ½ x 11 format with a separate letter to an 8 ½ x 14 letterhead with a tear-off reply
Copy refreshed and personalization added to highlight longevity and status
Moved benefits listing to back of letter and elimination of benefits inserts
Lapsed panels added
Increased print quantities from 6 to 12 months when possible
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Online Integration
• eRenewal revenue from monthly efforts has increased 86% since FY09 and has not negatively affected DM renewalsE-Appeals continue to have high
average gift ($82.03) versus DM average gift ($54.77)
Direct mail is still the dominant channel.
Direct mail joins are giving 67% of web income.
In FY11, 46% of web join giving was to traditional channels.
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FY09 DM major donor upgrade invitation strategy expanded with the addition of a TM follow-up invitation and an additional DM effort.
New TM Invite upgraded 42 members to the $1,000 level
Net Revenue from combined DM and TM upgrading efforts increased by 356% over the previous year, $97,837 vs. $21,473
Introduction of a TM sustainer invite and a follow-up DM invite brought in 172 new sustainers in FY09 vs. 37 in FY08
Expansion of Upgrade and Sustainer Invite Strategy
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Four years on, what do we have to show for ourselves?
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$250-499
$100-249
$50-99
$25-49
$15-24
<$15
-26%
-24%
-4%
6%
81%
11%FY08
Net Downgrade Net Upgrade
Upgrading is improving and downgrading at $100+ levels is low.
$250-500
$100-249
$50-99
$25-49
$15-24
<$15
-43%
-29%
-7%2%
21%
13%
FY06
$250-500
$100-249
$50-99
$25-49
$15-24
<$15
-26%
-24%
-3%8%
65%14%
FY07
$250-500$100-249
$50-99$25-49$15-24
<$15
-32%-17%
-7%2%
41%
16%FY09
$250-500$100-249
$50-99$25-49$15-24
<$15
-19%
-13%-8%
5%
57%17%
FY10
$250-500$100-249
$50-99$25-49$15-24
<$15
-9%
-8%-1%
6%
57%23%
FY11
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Gifts per member and income per member are up
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY110.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
$44 $46 $48 $47 $45 $45 $47
$60$65
$69 $67$64 $66
$71
Average Gift Income/Member Gifts/Member
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Retention is steadier
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY1120%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
59.8%
78.7%65.4%
25.5%
Overall Overall w/Reinstates Multi-Year
Overall retention is down slightly from 61.4% to 59.8%. Multi-year retention is fairly steady at 65.4% compared with 66.6% in FY10.First-year retention was 25.5%, down from a strong 29.8% in FY10. It is very close to the FY09 number of
25.7%.
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Income is more stable
• Members continue to give over a long period of time. As some members drop off the file, the remaining members upgrade their giving. This shows the long-term impact of Acquisition where each year builds upon the last -- revenue is compounded year after year. A drop in quantity one year would impact revenue in future years.
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Current acquisition levels are still not enough to maintain file size
FY13 renewals income is projected to decrease 14%
Although the decline in income and member counts is slowing (13% attrition rate in FY08 compared to 4% in FY11) and first-year renewal rates are up, more investment in acquisition is unavoidable
Moving Forward
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NTHP Case Study Presented by:
Elizabeth Bruns, Director of MembershipNational Trust for Historic Preservation
1785 Massachusetts Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20036
The National Trust for Historic Preservation, a privately funded nonprofit organization, works to save America’s historic places.
• These are the places that tell our stories, offer unique and memorable experiences today, and promise a vibrant future for the generations of tomorrow.
• We take direct, on-the ground action to preserve historic buildings and sites when they are threatened. We advocate on Capitol Hill and in statehouses and town halls nationwide for legislation that protects historic properties. And we work people who are passionate about saving historic places to preserve and protect your part of the American story.
• The National Trust currently has approximately 200,000 members and supporters.
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Member attrition is more pronounced than income attrition because retained members tend to give
more
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Despite increase in other channels, direct mail remains dominant.
• In FY11, direct mail was 82% of membership income.
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First-year retention is strong at 43.6%.
This retention graph looks at active members on file at the start of the year who give a gift at some time during the year.
• Retention compares quite well with other organizations. The weakness in Overall Retention with Reinstatements is due to lower Acquisition quantities during the recession.
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What’s old is new: the ongoing discussion about the level of investment in acquisitionNTHP’s investment in the acquisition program has been on the decline, resulting in insufficient donors to keep the file size stable.
With strong performance metrics, NTHP has an opportunity to invest in the program with confidence.
NTHP needed 12,000 in true new DM Acquisition joins in order for the direct marketing membership program to remain flat. NTHP only brought in 5,159 true new joins in FY11—nearly 7,000 short of what is needed.
The case for increased investment was brought to the leadership and approved!
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Acquisition DM Campaign Testing
FY12 Testing: Colored Carrier
Package Description Drop Counts % Resp Net/Mbr
C - Membercard Control 27,008 0.59% ($27.16)G - Membercard Test #3 (Bold Blue Carrier)
24,293 0.90% ($15.35)
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Appeal DM Campaign Testing
FY12 Testing:Reply Device
Notecard Appeal –Reply Device TestAdding the reply device produces a substantial
increase in response rate (7.11% w/reply vs. 3.57%-no reply) and in gross revenue ($88,499
w/reply vs. $50,275-no reply).
Acquisition Package Redesign
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NEW Appeal packages
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NEW Appeal packages (continued)
LWV Case Study Presented by:
Nancy Sturm, Senior Director of Development
League of Women Voters of the U.S.1730 M Street, N.W., #1000
Washington, DC [email protected]
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The League of Women Voters is a nonpartisan grassroots membership organization working in all 50 states and 800 communities to improve our democracy by promoting civic participation in government and public policy at the national, state and local level.
League of Women Voters Background
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The League is : • Best known for its nonpartisan work to register voters, educate
voters about election processes, issues and candidates, and improve all aspects of elections.
• Protecting eligible voters from voter suppression efforts and barriers to voting, through advocacy, litigation, public education, etc.
• Expanding the electorate so that it includes under-represented populations: e.g. youth, minorities, low-income individuals, new citizens.
• Advocating for transparent and accountable government and for sound public policy on issues, from health care to climate change to immigration and more.
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This shows the long-term impact of acquisition and how revenue is compounded year after year. A drop in quantity one year impacts revenue in future years.
Acquisition is an investment that compounds over time
fiscal year
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$0K
$500K
$1,000K
$1,500K
$2,000K
$2,500K
$3,000K
$3,500K
income
income by join year and fiscal year
join year
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
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Direct Mail is still the predominant giving channel
• Online income has more than doubled from FY09 to FY10.
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Due to robust acquisition performance, FY12 has lowest net loss investment and is closest to approaching FY05 new join level.
With list rental income, acquisition is close to breakeven.
NOTE: Investment does not include list rental or sustainer income.
INVESTMENT VS. NEW JOINS ACQUIRED
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ACQUISITION
August’s 1.50% response rate is 81% higher than budget, and best of FY12.
Revenue is 83% over budget, despite 2% fewer names mailed.
Cost/donor is low at $3.94 (vs. $16.41 budgeted).
Second Match & Deploy effort brought in 23 new joins with $22.33 average gift.
August and September mailed Voter Protection package, without tests, to capitalize on extraordinary performance.
September is best cost/donor of FY12 at $0.61.
$23.83 average gift is highest since FY05.
With 127% more gross revenue and 18% more names mailed, net exceeded budget by 79%.
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TEST: Removing “obstruction” teaser tested
against control. Control has 4% higher response rate, and average gift is near even with $1000+ gifts removed. Avalon recommends keeping control.
One-word subject line was tested. Control has higher response rate (0.62% vs. 0.50%), $12.06 higher average gift and won at 90% confidence.
August focused on “War on Voters,” mailed official-looking envelope.
4.39% response rate and $46.10 average gift are highest since FY09 (second highest response since FY05).
Gross and net revenue are 23% and 30% over budget.
Coordinated e-appeal raised 106% higher than budget with strong 0.65% response rate (0.28% budgeted).
AUGUST APPEAL
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Annual multi-channel invitation was enhanced through targeted modeling with prosperous results.
DM: Invitation was sent in special UPS envelope with highly personalized messaging.
Modeling worked: 4.18% response rate was 97% higher than budget and $521.81 average gift was 4% higher than goal.
Both of these factors lifted gross 106% and net 693% over budget!
DM brought in 26 gifts over $1000 — including one for $5,000.
TM: Share called successful upgrade campaign.
TM’s 23% pledge rate exceeded budget by 8%, and gross and net revenue exceeded budget by 37% and 44%, respectively.
TM generated four gifts over $1000.
LEADERS FOR DEMOCRACY DM & TM INVITATION
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January mailed traditional start of year survey in official-looking black and white carrier.
5.33% response rate was 33% higher than budget.
$35.05 average gift was on par with FY10.
JANUARY APPEAL
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Annual Fund raised $178,754, exceeding gross revenue budget by 14% and net by 20% with strong 3.71% response rate.
$58.78 average gift was 17% above budget.
FY11 was top performing Annual Fund in four years.
Follow Up came in at 79% of gross and 80% of net budget.
Average gift was 7% higher than budget.
ANNUAL FUND APPEAL & FOLLOW-UP
THANK YOU!
Avalon Consulting Group2030 M Street, NW
Suite 700Washington, DC 20036
http://www.avalonconsulting.net/
Don’t forget to visit the Solutions Showcase!
Many of the ideas discussed today are on display at the Solutions Showcase!
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