Ant Wilson

Director/AECOM Fellow

Building Engineering

AECOM

20th June 2013

“What Happens When the Lights go Out”

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Agenda

09.30 Welcome - Ant Wilson, AECOM

09.40 UK loss of load probability - Bill Wright, ECA

10.00 Workshop introduction - Ant Wilson, AECOM

10.20 Workshop

11.30 Coffee

11.45 Workshop

12.00 Feedback from workshop

12.45 Summary, Ant Wilson, AECOM

13.00 Networking lunch

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What The Workshop Will Cover

What will be affected if power outages or voltage reduction and surges

become reality?

What risks will this pose for businesses?

.

What will the issues be for business continuity?

What processes/procedures have already been put in place?

What can BSRIA produce to help support members?

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Growing Energy Consumption

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Sustainability Issues (How Green ?)

Energy Carbon

Water

Materials Comfort

Fabrics

Form

Productivity

Flexible

Functional Renewables

Cost

Resources

Social

Control

Conservation Resilience

Risk

Adaptability

Flexibility

Smart Technology

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Low Carbon Construction Action Plan – June 2011

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Developing Carbon Measurement Tools

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The Carbon Plan: Delivering Our Low Carbon Future – December 2011

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The Climate Change Act 2008 and the Carbon Budget Framework

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EPC Rating Against Real Performance

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Terminology - We Need to get it Right!!!!

Compliance

Operational

Asset

Design

Actual

As-built

Measured

Normalised

Plug Loads

Process Loads

Unregulated Loads

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Zero Carbon Hub – Carbon Compliance for Tomorrow’s New Homes

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Low Carbon Routemap Launched at Ecobuild

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THANK YOU FOR LISTENING

WILL THE LIGHTS GO OUT?

Bill Wright

Head of Energy Solutions

ECA

(Based on a presentation to the REF by Glyn Jones of SPG)

OFGEM Report

In its first annual electricity capacity assessment, OFGEM

forecast de-rated generation margins to decline from currently

14% to merely 4% in 2015-16.

De-rated capacity margins take into account the intermittent

nature of wind generation and the fact that conventional

generation plants may not be available at all times because of

maintenance or break down.

Definitions

ACS Peak GB Demand (Average Cold Spell):

The estimated unrestricted winter peak demand on the National Electricity

Transmission system.

Generation or Plant Margin:

The amount by which the total installed capacity of directly connected Power Stations

and Embedded Large Power Stations and imports across directly connected External

Interconnections exceeds the Average Cold Spell Peak Demand : This is often

expressed as a percentage (e.g. 20%) or as a decimal fraction (e.g. 0.2) of the ACS

Peak Demand.

Loss of Load Probability (LOLP):

is a measure of the reliability of an electrical grid; the probability that there is

insufficient generating supply to support electrical demand.

Loss of Load Expectation

expected number of hours in a year when the hourly peak load is not met because of a

generation capacity deficiency.

Generation Mix

IN OUT

1) Wind (on and off shore) 1) Unabated coal

2) Water 2) Old gas (but could change)

3) New Nuclear (eventually) 3) Old Nuclear

4) CCS (Clean Coal – eventually)

5) Other renewables

6) Gas

BUT

(1) Single big assets replace smaller/flexible units.

(2) Huge up-front costs.

UK Policy

Government: 2005-2010 signed :

Key European Directives that cleans or closes fossil plant

- Large Combustion Plant Directive (impact by 2016).

- Industrial Emissions Directive (impact by 2021-23).

Max Demand 60.5GW

Capacity Outlook

Demand v Capacity

Problems looming!

1) The UK will over the next five/ten years have the lowest generation plant

margins since the 1960’s..

2) The intended increasing reliance on wind power assumes that the UK as a

whole will not be affected by periods of cold weather at the same time as

minimum wind.

3) The UK is the only European country with no Public Sector Obligation

(PSO) but assumes full import capability from Europe for both electricity

and gas

Worried yet?

You should be!

The End

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Britain’s Onshore Shale Gas

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Shale Gas to Add to Global Gas Growth

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The UK Production of Primary Fuels 1995-2011

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UK Natural Gas Flow Chart 2011 (TWh) – DUKES 2012

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UK Electricity Flow Chart 2011 (TWh) – DUKES 2012

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UK Electricity Generation by Fuel Type – Changes Within a Year

50%

Increase

In COAL

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Production by Region (Coal) in Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (MTOe)

Coal was again the fastest-

growing fossil fuel. Global

production grew by 6.1%.

The Asia Pacific region

accounted for 85% of global

production growth, led by an

8.8% increase in China, the

world’s largest supplier.

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Energy and Emissions Projections

These projections are subject to several

sources of uncertainty including forecast error

in demand equations, uncertainty in future

policy impacts and uncertainty in projections

for economic drivers of demand. Analysis of

sensitivity of our projections to uncertainty in

assumptions suggest the true future values

could be more than 5% higher or lower than the

projected values in the long run. However,

despite this uncertainty, the analysis suggests

that the risk of the UK failing to meet its first

three carbon budgets is low.

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UK Renewable Energy Roadmap Update 2012

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Energy Demand Growth is Matched by Supply (BP)

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BP Energy Outlook

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Shale Gas Growth Predictions by BP

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Shale Gas Brings Self-Sufficiency to North America

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BP Predict Non-Fossil Fuel Growth will be Led by Renewable in OECD

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Energy Demand Growth Drives Carbon Emissions

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Shale Formations Across the UK

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Making buildings better

What happens when the

lights go out?

Workshop

48

Making buildings better

Two issues

• In the near term Ofgem and others have said that

there is a possibility of electricity brown / black outs

due to capacity issues. What does this mean for the

building services industry?

• Longer term the extensive use of renewables is likely

to result in pricing strategies which reflect the

availability of supply. What does this mean for the

building services industry?

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Making buildings better

Questions

• How well does the market understand the likelihood

of power cuts & risks / opportunities associated with

ensuring business continuity?

• How well do we understand the measures that end

users can put in place to deal with the situation both

short and longer term?

• Is this an area where BSRIA can provide advice /

guidance to its members and the industry, and if so

what should it produce?