what happened during twenty years after the first emecs ......what happened during twenty years...
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What Happened during Twenty Years after the first EMECS (1990) (1/2)
• 30% Increase of World Population5.29 billion (1990)
to 6.91 billion (2010)
• More than Doubled Gross World Product27.5 trillion (1990) to 62.3 trillion (2010)
in dollars (1990)
M. Suzuki
8
4
2
0
6
8
4
2
0
6
More Developed Countries
Less Developed Countries
billions
What Happened during Twenty Years after the first EMECS (1990) (2/2)
• Down-Sizing of the World: three profiles– Progress of IT technologies
• Performance of Computer: a million times in twenty years
• Common sharing of various information
– Collapse of the East-West structures• Unification of economy systems, aggravation of worldwide
competition in resources acquisition
– Clarification of the mechanism and fragility of the earth system through global climate change events
⇒ Understanding of the finiteness of the Globe capacity.
M. Suzuki
Global Warming Simulation
Sum
#1
#500
1000 times per
10 years
Pe
rfo
rman
ceWorld Top500 Computer Performance Development
Glacier/S now24,064
Ground water23,400
Sea Water1,338,000
Prec ipitation458
E vaporation502.8
E vaporation65.25
Prec ipitation110
S oil Moisture17
Permafros t300
BiologicalWater
1
176L ake
River water2
Mar sh11
Water Vaporover L and
3
Water Vaporover Ocean
10
2.2 42.6
2.2
44.8
Global Water Distribution
Unit: 1012 m3, 1012 m3/year Suzuki
and Cycle
Limited Water Supply
.
Organincs, N, P, IC, SS
Algae
AlgaeHeterotrophs
Sedimentation
Sedimentation
Aeration
Flow Flow
IC, N, P
IC, Metabolites
Metabolites
IC
recurrence
Sediment, Aerobic/Anaerobic
Metabolites, IC, P
Volatile Organics
Water Quality Model in Eutrophicated Water Body
Metabolites
Dissolvd Orgaanics
Oxygen
Precipitation
Forest,
Mountainous Area
Agriculture,
Stockbreediing
Anthropogenic Sphere
Water supply
Sources
Rivers
Receiving water body
Organics
Sun Light
Evaporation
Sun Light
Factors Influencing Water Qualities in Basin Area
M. Suzuki
Enclosed Sea
Results of Human Activities ⇒ Enclosed Seas
Human Pressures on Water Environment
Drivers Examples of Pressures on Water Environment
Population
Growth
Increased competition for land and resources,
Increased load to natural systems
Economic
Growth
Can increase natural resource use and
pollution
Social ChangeAwareness can lower impact
Consumption lifestyles can increase impact
Technological
Innovation
Can increase/decrease impacts-sometimes
both
Policies, Laws
and FinanceCan impose protection measures
Climate Change
Threatens ecological balances, Extreme
Events,
Flood, Drought, Leads to shifting habitats
Modified from Richard Connor
Example of Human Impact
• Global/local change has more human/social dimensions
than natural dimension
• Nitrogen balance
as an example:
Nitrogen Fixation
150
100
50
0Glo
bal
N f
ixat
ion
(Tg
/yr)
YEARAfter Vitousek (1994)
Nitrogen Flux to Coastal Zone
Nit
roge
n F
lux
(Tg/
yr)
0
50
100
YEAR
After Mackenzie et al (2002)
For food security,
ammonium synthesis and
industrial agriculture begin
Excess nitrogen applied is flushed to receiving water bodies
Eutrophication of water and deterioration of ecosystems in fresh and saline water
World Run-off Monthly
http://www.grdc.sr.unh.edu/
-180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180
90
60
30
0
-30
-60
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90
60
30
0
-30
-60
-90
Human Densities Seen at Night
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/earthday/gall_earth_night.html
-180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180
90
60
30
0
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Human Densities and Sea Programs21 Enclosed Seas, EMECSRegional Seas, UNEP
88 Enclosed/semienclosed Seas Identified by Ministry of Environment, Japan
Epicenter of The Eastern Japan Great Earthquake that caused Tsunami Disaster, March 11
18 out of 88 enclosed seas are located here.
Shin-Miyako city in the middle of Iwate coast, established as a typical traditional community in Tohoku (2010.1, pop 63,000)
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2011/03/massive_earthquake_hits_japan.html
A Tsunami after a powerful earthquake in Natori, Miyagi
Earthquake-triggered tsumanis sweep shores along Iwanuma in northern Japan.(Kyodo News/Associated Press)
http://hibikizi.net/2011/03/magnitude9-0/
Before and After: Upper: Yuriage, Natori and Lower: Yagawahama, Ishinomaki
NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team
ASTER Images of Baltimore, MD
March 14, 20112008
ASTER Images of Ofunato and Kesennuma Areas 130km North of Sendai, before and after
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/japanquake/pia13915.html
A Sight Seeing Boat on a Roof of a Travelors’ Lodge
Some of the Lessons Learnt from the Event
• Re-cognition of possible destructing powers of the Nature – Needs for more respect to the nature systems
that provide diversified services to human beings• Heavy damage due to the tsunami, especially on
marginal/fragile areas, such as enclosed seas – Needs for recovering fishery/recreational areas
after complete loss of ecosystems including bottom algae fields caused by the tsunami debris
• Radioactive substances emitted from the Fukushima Daiichi power plant– Needs for careful monitoring and establishing
fate analysis methods for radioactive substances in coastal seas