What does the Brexit scenario

mean to UK business?

Tuesday 16th July 2019

© 2019 WEConnect International

Webinar16th July 2019

What does the Brexit scenario mean for the UK business

Prior to working in the pharmaceutical industry, Valeria has developed an international legal background, completing a law degree with a focus on the European and International legislation.She is now responsible for complete set-up and leadership of the patient retention division “Patient Primary” providing global solutions to reduce the burden of patient participation and maximize clinical trial success. Patient Primary identifies pharma and patient needs and provides a variety of innovative solutions to match them.

Vale Nicoli-CarrGlobal Director, Patient Services

D: +44 1344 577 928

M: +44 7855 286 668

valeria.nicoli@patientprimary.com

Webinar Overview

Free Webinar: What does the Brexit scenario mean for the UK business?

Although the process of exit for the UK from the EU has been triggered by

invoking article 50, the post-Brexit calendar is a firestorm of uncertainty.

The uncertainty could potentially have a chilling effect on global pharma

investment in the UK, but are the issues that will impact our industry being heard

in Westminster - and Brussels?

In this webinar, the following key topics will be tackled:

Brexit where are we now?

The UK and Europe, a difficult relationship since the beginning

The potential impact of Brexit on different industries

EU roots and British accession (1957–1973)

1951 Treaty establishing the European Coal and Steel Community

France, West Germany, Italy and the three Benelux countries (Belgium,

Luxembourg, and the Netherlands),

1957 Treaties of Rome : EEC and EURATOM treaties (Belgium, France, Italy,

Luxembourg, the Netherlands and West Germany

Britain first began talks to join the EEC in July 1961. The UK's applications to join

in 1963 and 1967 were vetoed by the President of France.

The Treaty of Accession was signed in January 1972 by the then prime

minister Edward Heath

EU roots and British accession (1975–1992 )

• 1975 First National Referendum on whether the UK

should remain in the European Communities- under

the labour party led by Harold Wilson

• On 5 June 1975, the electorate were asked to vote

yes or no on the question: "Do you think the UK

should stay in the European Community (Common

Market)?

• 67.2% in favour of staying in

EU roots and British accession (1973–1992)In 1979, the United Kingdom opted out of the newly formed(EMS)

1980 Tatcher’s battle lasted four years and finally ended in victory for Thatcher

but damaged relations with other EC countries “I want my money back”-

In 1985, the United Kingdom ratified the Single European Act the first major

revision to the Treaty of Rome

1988 Tatcher’s speech, vowing to oppose “a European super state exercising a

new dominance from Brussels

In October 1990 the United Kingdom joined the European Exchange Rate

Mechanism(ERM), with the pound sterling pegged to the deutschmark (until

1992)

EU roots and British accession (1992–2016)

• The Referendum Party was formed in 1994 by Sir James Goldsmith

• The UK Independence Party (UKIP), a Eurosceptic political party, was also

formed, in 1993

• Since 1977, both pro- and anti-European views have had majority support at

different times, with some dramatic swings between the two camps

• David Cameron negotiations with Europe 23rd June 2016

• The referendum resulted in 51.9% of votes being in favour of leaving the EU

Negotiation Update Terms of A50 Extension – 31st October

UK can leave before this date if the UK Parliament

approves the Withdrawal Agreement. This would

happen on the first of the month following the date that

approval was granted.

Jean-Claude Juncker's nominated replacement Ursula

Von Der Leyen- EU is ready for Brexit Extension

Howver at thios stage no new negotiations have taken

place between the UK and EU.

Potential Negotiations

EU and EU 27 leaders have been forced into denying that the withdrawal

agreement could be reopened for negotiation by Johnson and Hunt.

Jean-Claude Juncker has said the agreement “has to be respected by whoever is

the next British prime minister” and that “there will be no renegotiations as far as

the content of the withdrawal agreement is concerned”.

Article 50 Treaty of Lisbon:Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the

European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking

account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. 3.The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry

into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in

agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

EU Summit- June 2019

• EU leaders met over the weekend of 28th – 30th June to

decide candidates to be the next EU Commission President

and other top EU jobs.

• Ursula von der Leyen will be the European Commission

President, Charles Michel the European Council President

and David Sassoli European Parliament President.

EU – Switzerland Tensions

• The EU and Switzerland have imposed new restrictions on each other's

financial firms.

•Brussels is increasingly likely to cut off Swiss stock exchanges from the EU's

single market

• Action comes amid delays in ‘simplification’ of the Swiss-EU relationship, which

is currently based on 120 bilateral agreements.

• Action can be read as a show of strength by EU in Brexit negotiations,

particularly given importance of ‘equivalence’ to UK financial services sector.

The EU has concluded a trade agreement with the four founding members of

Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay) as part of a bi-regional

Association Agreement.

Current trade relations between the EU and Mercosur are based on an inter-

regional Framework Cooperation Agreement which entered into force from 1999.

The group is made up of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay

EU – Mercosur Trade Deal

• 10 June - Deadline for candidates to apply

• 11 June & Wed 12 June - leadership hustings

• 13 June - First round of voting

• 17 June - leadership hustings

• 18 June - Second round of voting

• 19 June - Third round of voting

• 20 June - Fourth and Final round of voting

Total number of votes for leadership candidates:

Johnson 114

Hunt 43

Gove 41

• 22 June - First Conservative Party membership

hustings for final 2 candidates

• w/c 1 July - Member voting begins

• 22 July - New leader announced

https://www.abpi.org.uk/what-we-do/events/2018/july/abpi-brexit-check-in-webinar-july/

Leadership election timetable

• Both contenders for prime minister claim they can

renegotiate a Brexit deal that the EU says is closed.

Mr Johnson said the UK must leave on 31 October "deal

or no deal" but Mr Hunt called this a "fake deadline" that

could trigger a general election if Parliament rejects a no-

deal Brexit.

• The new Conservative leader will face many of the

same problems that their predecessor did due to a

thin majority and this will also mean relying on the DUP

The situation for the new Prime Minister

• He was a “remainer campaigner”, however he said he would

vote to leave should there be a second vote.

• "If a deal is not forthcoming the only way to fulfil the democratic

mandate of the referendum is to leave without a deal” – 1 July.

• On leaving with no deal, Mr Hunt has said he would rather

leave without a deal than remain in the European Union if

“there is no prospect of a deal by 31 October”.

• He has said he would back a no deal Brexit as a “last resort

Jeremy Hunt on Brexit

• Johnson was the most prominent campaigner for the

leave campaign and resigned from the Government over

Chequer’s deal.

• Brexit plan includes a renegotiation with Brussels,

saying “I don’t think that they are going to want a

disorderly Brexit of any kind. And it is not in their

interests”.

• Has said from the start the campaign that he would

embrace no-deal, saying UK and Conservative party must

leave on 31 October “come what may, do or die”.

Boris Johnson on Brexit

• Both candidates have comments on re-opening the

negotiations with Brussels

• Johnson has pledged to cut income tax for people

above £50,000 by raising the 40% tax threshold to

£80,000 and has trailed a ‘points based’ immigration

system.

• Hunt has framed himself as the pro-business candidate

and promised to slash business taxes to the lowest in

Europe to attract firms to Britain after Brexit.

Hunt and Johnson policies

Labour Fail to Block No-Deal in Parliament

• Labour recognises that leaving the EU with ‘no deal’ is the

worst possible deal for Britain and that it would do damage to

our economy and trade. We will reject ‘no deal’ as a viable

option and, if needs be, negotiate transitional arrangements

to avoid a ‘cliff-edge’ for the UK economy.

Labour Europhile MP Ben Bradshaw has criticised some of

his Labour colleagues after parliament rejected a motion to

allow MPs seize control of the Commons agenda on June 25,

as part of efforts to block a no-deal Brexit

Jeremy Corbyn is coming under increasing pressure from

both sides of the party to be more decisive on a Brexit

position.

No Deal and MPs• A no-deal exit would see the UK leave the customs union and single market

overnight and start trading with the EU on World Trade Organisation rules.

Opponents say it would cause huge disruption at the borders and be

catastrophic to many firms reliant on trade with the continent - supporters say

any negative effects would be manageable.

An amendment put forward by Tory MP Dominic Grieve and Labour MP Dame

Margaret Beckett attempted to stop Government spending in the event of ‘no

deal’.

• Under parliamentary rules, MPs must back all government expenditure twice

a year

First Ministers call for 2nd Referendum

• First Minister of Wales Mark Drakeford and First Minister of Scotland Nicola

Sturgeon announce they will work to keep the UK in the EU.

• Joint statement criticised uncertainty and economic harm from no-deal

policies of Conservative leadership candidates.

• Both Government’s want a second referendum and their national parties will

back remain.

LiberalDem and Brexit

• The Liberal Democrats are holding a leadership election at the same time as

the Conservatives, with Jo Swinson and Ed Davey the two candidates.

• Both candidates have said they would not form a Government with a Jeremy

Corbyn led Labour party, in part because of his stance on Brexit.

Summary of the Withdraw agreement Free movement will continue until the end of the transition (or implementation)

period and EU and UK nationals will be able to move to the UK or Member

States as is currently permitted by EU law

Most goods that are already in the UK / EU market at the end of the transition

period will be allowed to continue to move freely between the UK and the EU

after the end of transition

The UK has chosen to implement a scheme which requires EU citizens to

apply for a new residency status known as ‘settled’ or ‘pre-settled’ status

The Backstop & the Withdraw agreementIs intended to be temporary and applies unless and until it is superseded by a future

relations agreement

The UK will form a customs union with the EU (except for trade in fisheries and

aquaculture products, which should be the subject of a further agreement on fishing

opportunities by 1 July 2020). The UK will conform to specific EU legislation on customs,

including with respect to third countries, and some harmonisation of law will continue on

taxation, the environment, labour law, state aid, competition and public

companies/monopolies, but with no obligation to keep up with new EU legislation and

CJEU case law. The UK will be able to conclude trade agreements with third countries;

however, the customs union would substantially limit the UK's ability to have significantly

different trade relationships with them, particularly in relation to goods.

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8453

No Deal PreparationPreparations for a no deal exit have been taking place since the referendum in 2016. The

Government ramped up its preparations in summer 2018, when it started publishing a

series of ‘technical notices’ on how public bodies, businesses and individuals needed to

prepare for no deal

The Government passed the EU Withdrawal Act in 2018 to copy EU law into UK law after

Brexit. However, the Government also needs to pass several more bills ahead of a no

deal exit

A Government paper published in February 2019 said it was “on track for just over two-

thirds of the most critical projects”. However, the report did not explain what those critical

projects are, which ones are not on track, or what the Government is doing to get them

back on track.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/no-deal-brexit-preparations

No Deal Preparation

UK government's preparations for a 'no deal' scenario

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-governments-preparations-for-

a-no-deal-scenario/uk-governments-preparations-for-a-no-deal-scenario

Technical Notices

Over the course of August, September and October 2018, the Government published 106 technical notices to ensure

that citizens and businesses have the information to prepare for EU Exit. Since the publication of technical notices, we

have taken further steps to ensure people and firms are ready, including:

Publishing more than 100 pages of guidance for businesses on processes and procedures at the border in a no deal

scenario.

Contacting 145,000 businesses who trade with the EU, telling them to start getting ready for no deal customs

procedures.

Advising hundreds of ports, traders, pharmaceutical firms and other organisations that use the border about potential

disruption so they can get their supply chains ready.

Publishing a paper on citizens’ rights, giving people clarity on their future.

No Deal Preparation The European Prospective

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8547

European Commission preparations to mitigate the impact of a no-deal Brexit

began in December 2017, and on 25 March 2019 the Commission declared

that its no-deal ‘Brexit preparedness’ programme was complete. The

Commission has published 98 ‘preparedness notices’ and 46 legislative

measures have been proposed or adopted - for example, legislation

amending EU Regulation 2018/1806 will allow short-stay visa-free travel for UK

citizens in the EU27 States, on the basis of UK reciprocity (this will also apply

in Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland, which are in the Schengen

area).

The EU has also taken steps to prepare for a shortfall in the EU Budget if the UKonour

Doesn’t commit to payments.

Thank you!