what are the most efficient measures of mitigation and adaptation to produce more in a sustainable...
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What are the most efficient measures of mitigation and adaptation to produce more in a sustainable manner?
Dr . Ada Ignaciuk,Agricultural Policy Analyst, Environmental Division of Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECDEmail: [email protected]
Scenario analysis- socio-economic developments- climate- technology projections
1) OECD’s short-medium term projections
‘OECD-FAO Outlook’2) OECD’s long term projections
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
• Agricultural Outlook - a set of conditional projections published in an OECD-FAO annual report
• Comprehensive, dynamic partial equilibrium model
• Dedicated OECD-FAO web page: www.agri-outlook.org
Co-operators Program
• Involve member governments in global projection process– to link expertise world wide and build consensus on
emerging national and global issues – Participate in annual world commodity projection
– Access to data, models, commodity experts
– Participate in analysis projects
– Access to capacity building – training
– Tap global expertise
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Climate damages
OECD (2010)
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Climate Change costs
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Market outlook: prices
OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Whe
at
Coars
e gr
ains
Rice
Oilsee
ds
Prot
ein
mea
ls
Veget
able
oils
Raw su
gar
BeefPo
rk
Poul
try
Sheep
Butte
r
Chees
eSM
PW
MP
Ethan
ol
Biodi
esel
Fish
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
% change in average (real) prices 2002-11 to 2012-21“2012-21 prices above last decade”
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Prices
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Refe
rence
IPS
L_LP
JM
L
HA
DLE
Y_LP
JM
L
IPS
L_D
SS
AT
HA
DLE
Y_D
SS
AT
Refe
rence
IPS
L_LP
JM
L
HA
DLE
Y_LP
JM
L
IPS
L_D
SS
AT
HA
DLE
Y_D
SS
AT
Refe
rence
IPS
L_LP
JM
L
HA
DLE
Y_LP
JM
L
IPS
L_D
SS
AT
HA
DLE
Y_D
SS
AT
Refe
rence
IPS
L_LP
JM
L
HA
DLE
Y_LP
JM
L
IPS
L_D
SS
AT
HA
DLE
Y_D
SS
AT
Refe
rence
IPS
L_LP
JM
L
HA
DLE
Y_LP
JM
L
IPS
L_D
SS
AT
HA
DLE
Y_D
SS
AT
Refe
rence
IPS
L_LP
JM
L
HA
DLE
Y_LP
JM
L
IPS
L_D
SS
AT
HA
DLE
Y_D
SS
AT
Refe
rence
IPS
L_LP
JM
L
HA
DLE
Y_LP
JM
L
IPS
L_D
SS
AT
HA
DLE
Y_D
SS
AT
Refe
rence
IPS
L_LP
JM
L
HA
DLE
Y_LP
JM
L
IPS
L_D
SS
AT
HA
DLE
Y_D
SS
AT
Refe
rence
IPS
L_LP
JM
L
HA
DLE
Y_LP
JM
L
IPS
L_D
SS
AT
HA
DLE
Y_D
SS
AT
Refe
rence
IPS
L_LP
JM
L
HA
DLE
Y_LP
JM
L
IPS
L_D
SS
AT
HA
DLE
Y_D
SS
AT
Refe
rence
IPS
L_LP
JM
L
HA
DLE
Y_LP
JM
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IPS
L_D
SS
AT
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DLE
Y_D
SS
AT
FRUITS MAIZE POTATOES MILLET OTHER GRAINS RAPESEED RICE VEGETABLES WHEAT BEEF POULTRY
Pric
e ch
ange
in 2
050
com
pare
d to
20
05C
limat
e ch
ange
eff
ect
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Zooming into Mexican (irrigated) yields
IPSL LPJML IPSL DSSAT HADLEY LPJML HADLEY DSSAT
2010 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050Fruit 18 24 -16 -20 -12 -23Maize 5,4 10,3 14 -19 11 -14Other grains 3,2 5,5 -6 -15 -6 -16Potatoes 31 43 -15 -20 -12 -22Sorghum 5 6,7 1 -9 2 -5Sugar cane 88 122 18 -21 19 -17Vegetables 18 22 -14 -20 -12 -22Wheat 4,7 5,2 -15 -29 -9 -36
Reference (%) as compared to baseline
IRRIGATED Yields
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Land use
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
IPSL_LPJML IPSL_DSSAT IPSL_LPJML IPSL_DSSAT IPSL_LPJML IPSL_DSSAT IPSL_LPJML IPSL_DSSAT
Maize Wheat Rice Millet
% o
f ch
ang
e co
mp
ared
to
th
e R
efer
ence
sce
nar
io
North America
Europe
Australia & New Zealand
Sub Sahara Africa
Middle East & North Africa
Southeast Asia
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Autonomous adaptation e.g. changing cropping patterns, changing varieties
Changes in management practices e.g. no-till
More efficient management of inputs
Improved water management
Adaptation -on field Adaptation - different governance
Provide information on e.g. weather and provide advisory services
Biofuels
R&D
Improved soil management
Mitigation and adaptation plans
Diversify livelihood
Insurances
Shift production
Changes in management of manure
Mitigation
Adding legumesAgroforestry
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
No mitigation
With mitigation
No mitigation
With mitigation
LPJML DSSAT LPJML DSSAT No mitigation
with mitigation
No mitigation
with mitigation
No mitigation
with mitigation
No mitigation
with mitigation
NCAR CSIRO IPSLM HGEM 2.5 � C increase 2.5 � C increase HadCM3 HadCM3 CSIRO
Developed Developing Developing OECD Developed Developing Developed Developing
2030 2050 2050 2055 2080
Millio
n U
SD
(2
00
5 U
SD
)
Series6
Public R&D
Private R&D
Total Infrastrucuture
Infrastrucuture (Roads)
Infrastrucuture (Water)
Flow Adaptation
Stock Adaptation (including R&D and Infrastrucuture)
78,037 78,03734,227 34,227
UNFCC (2007) OECD (2013) de Bruin (2013) IIASA (2007)World Bank (2010)
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Conclusions
• Climate change will affect agricultural production; but still many uncertainties
• To align adaptation and mitigation policies now, across different governance levels
• Holistic approach to climate policies to avoid maladaptation practices
• Climate change may be a challenge for some, but opportunities for others
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