what are the characteristics of people who come to...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
What are the characteristics of people who cometo Airexpo?
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre
ENAC
May 21, 2014
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 2: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
1 Introduction
2 Data gathering & expected results
3 Preliminary analysis
4 Model
5 Conclusion
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 3: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Data gathering & expected results
3 Preliminary analysis
4 Model
5 Conclusion
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 4: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Who comes to Airexpo?
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 5: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Data gathering & expected results
3 Preliminary analysis
4 Model
5 Conclusion
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 6: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Data Gathering
Google docs survey
31 questions - 27 to be used for the modelExport in MS Excel format, conversion to .csv format forEViewsPublished on the official Airexpo Facebook page
Incentive for answering:
Two tickets for Airexpo 2014A pack of Airexpo-branded goodies
Result: 532 answers (!)
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 7: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Data Gathering
Google docs survey
31 questions - 27 to be used for the modelExport in MS Excel format, conversion to .csv format forEViewsPublished on the official Airexpo Facebook page
Incentive for answering:
Two tickets for Airexpo 2014A pack of Airexpo-branded goodies
Result: 532 answers (!)
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 8: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Data Gathering
Google docs survey
31 questions - 27 to be used for the modelExport in MS Excel format, conversion to .csv format forEViewsPublished on the official Airexpo Facebook page
Incentive for answering:
Two tickets for Airexpo 2014A pack of Airexpo-branded goodies
Result: 532 answers (!)
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 9: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Explanatory variables and expected results
variables expected effect
gender -age +/-
occupation ?car +
how will come ?Ae knowledge +ae how learn ?
location know +know stu +free 12 +
entrance price +shuttle +
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 10: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Explanatory variables and expected results
variables expected effect
already airshow +times a year +
where come from -eco -
passion +flights +
no flights +vertigo ?
week end +org +
fb friends +results +prize +
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 11: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Data gathering & expected results
3 Preliminary analysis
4 Model
5 Conclusion
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 12: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Answers - Dependent variable
Figure : Histogram of the answers to “How many times did you come toAirexpo”
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 13: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Answers
No Issues with the correlation between variables
Possible issues of reverse-causality with some variables
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 14: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Data gathering & expected results
3 Preliminary analysis
4 Model
5 Conclusion
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 15: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
First model - Equation
The equation used for this model is:
HOW MANY TIMES = β1 + β2GENDER + β3AGE
+ β4OCCUPATION + β5CAR + β6HOW WILL COME
+ β7AE KNOWLEDGE + β8AE HOW LEARN
+ β9LOCATION KNOW + β10KNOW STU
+ β11FREE 12 + β12ENTRANCE PRICE
+ β13SHUTTLE + β14ALREADY AIRSHOW
+ β15TIMES A YEAR + β16WHERE COME FROM
+ β17ECO + β18PASSION + β19FLIGHTS
+ β20WEEK END + β21ORG + β22FB FRIENDS
+ β23RESULTS + β24PRIZE
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 16: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
First model - coefficients
Figure : Coefficients for the model
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 17: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Second model - Equation
The equation used for this model is:
HOW MANY TIMES = β1 + β2GENDER + β3AGE
+ β4OCCUPATION + β5CAR + β6HOW WILL COME
+ β7AE KNOWLEDGE + β8AE HOW LEARN
+ β9LOCATION KNOW + β10KNOW STU
+ β11FREE 12 + β12ENTRANCE PRICE
+ β13SHUTTLE + β14ALREADY AIRSHOW
+ β15TIMES A YEAR + β16WHERE COME FROM
+ β17ECO + β18ECO2 + β19PASSION + β20FLIGHTS
+ β21WEEK END + β22ORG + β23FB FRIENDS
+ β24RESULTS + β25PRIZE
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 18: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Second model - coefficients
Figure : Coefficients for the model
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 19: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Coefficient effects
variables expected effect real effect
gender - -age +/- +
occupation ? +car + +
how will come ? +Ae knowledge + +ae how learn ? +
location know + +know stu + +free 12 + +
entrance price + +shuttle + +
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 20: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Coefficient effects
variables expected effect real effect
already airshow + -times a year + +
where come from - -eco - -
passion + +flights + -
no flights + -vertigo ? +
week end + -org + +
fb friends + -results + +prize + +
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 21: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Ramsey RESET test
Figure : Ramsey RESET test results
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 22: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Residual
Figure : Residual from the model
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 23: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Heteroskedasticity Test
Figure : Heteroskedasticity test results (White)
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 24: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Data gathering & expected results
3 Preliminary analysis
4 Model
5 Conclusion
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 25: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Conclusion (1)
A good amount of data collected - giving an incentive doeshelp
A fairly good model overall
Assumptions on the data are globally appropriate
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 26: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Conclusion (1)
A good amount of data collected - giving an incentive doeshelp
A fairly good model overall
Assumptions on the data are globally appropriate
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 27: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Conclusion (1)
A good amount of data collected - giving an incentive doeshelp
A fairly good model overall
Assumptions on the data are globally appropriate
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 28: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Conclusion (2)
Figure : Forecast model over observations
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
![Page 29: What are the characteristics of people who come to …recherche.enac.fr/~steve.lawford/teaching_papers/example...31 questions - 27 to be used for the model Export in MS Excel format,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042211/5eb1bce9bce5dc29455ebd2a/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Conclusion (3)
Would you have any questions?
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?