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Monthly Labor Review December 2008 71

Services Oshoring

Service-providing occupations,oshoring, and the labor market

ABLSanalysis identies 160 service-providing occupationsthat are susceptible to ofshoring; these occupationsare diverse in their job unctions, associated educationalattainment, and wages

he Bureau o Labor Statistics (BLS)researches trends aecting the labormarket as part o its Employment

Projections Program. Although the BLSexamines all actors aecting employmentin industries and occupations, it pays par-ticular attention to new or emerging topics.One such topic is the oshoring o service-providing occupations.1 In recent years,

special eorts have been made to identiythe occupations that may be susceptible tooshoring and to account or oshoringin occupational employment projections.

Tis article, representing the culminationo those eorts, identies 160 occupationsconsidered susceptible to oshoring and re-ports trends in historical and projected dataor those occupations.

For most o recorded history, the major-ity o goods and services were produced andconsumed locally. Developments in trans-

portationmost notably, the locomotiveand steamship and, later, the airplane andtruckmade the large-scale remote pro-duction o goods practical. Te result was arapid increase in the trade o goods, caus-ing manuacturers to ace competition romabroad. Recent advances in telecommunica-tionsin particular, the Internethave en-abled inormation to travel around the globenearly instantaneously. Consequently, many

Roger J. Moncarz,

Michael G. Wol,and

Benjamin Wright

Roger J. Moncarz isBranch Chie, andMichael G. Wol and

Benjamin Wright areeconomists, in theOccupational OutlookStudies Branch, Oceo Employment andUnemployment Statis-tics, Bureau o LaborStatistics. E-mail:

[email protected],

[email protected],

or wright.benjamin@

bls.gov

services that previously needed to be per-ormed domestically now theoretically canbe perormed anywhere in the world. Temovement o work that results rom thisdevelopment, generally termed oshoring,has the potential to aect U.S. employment,but the nature and scale o its impact remainunclear.

As is common with new phenomena, the

terminology used to describe oshoring isnot always consistent. It is, thereore, bene-cial to clearly dene the issue. A report by theNational Academy o Public Administrationdenes oshoring as U.S. rms shitingservice and manuacturing activities abroadto unaliated rms or their own aliates.2

Tat denition is consistent with the con-cept o oshoring identied in the analysis

which ollows. However, or several reasons,this analysis ocuses only on the oshoringo services. First, the oshoring o manuac-

turing establishments has been occurring ora much longer period and is relatively clearlyunderstood. Second, the actors that leadservices to be susceptible to oshoring aredierent rom those aecting manuactur-ing. Tird, ew data sources exist that provideinsight into the occupations that are aectedby services oshoring. Tese three reasonscombined support an independent analysiso the oshoring o services.


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Services Oshoring

72 Monthly Labor Review December 2008

It is important to note that this article addresses onlythe movement o work rom the United States to othercountries; occupations that may be aected by fows inthe other directiona movement known as in-shor-ingare not identied. In general, occupations that are

susceptible to being oshored are not necessarily the sameas those which may be aected by in-shoring.

Current measures o services oshoring are limited by adearth o relevant data. Perhaps the most useul indicatoris the international trade data rom the Bureau o Eco-nomic Analysis (BEA). Over the last two decades, thesedata show a large increase in international trade in bothgoods and services. In 1986, goods exports were $229.2billion, while goods imports were $401.8 billion. By 2006,quantities had more than quadrupled, to $928.7 billionand $1.65 trillion, respectively. In 1986, service exports

were $128.9 billion, while service imports were $110.7billion. By 2006, service exports had nearly tripled, to$386.3 billion, while service imports more than doubled,reaching $283.7 billion.3 It is noteworthy that, althoughthe U.S. economy has been running an overall trade decitor decades, there has been a consistent surplus in interna-tional services trade.

Measures o the value o international trade, however,cannot be used to gauge the scope o oshoring. An in-creasing surplus in services trade, or example, does notnecessarily indicate a change in the level o oshoring inservice occupations. In addition, the value o services trade

usually is dicult to measure. Tis situation stems romthe act that goods, as opposed to services, are easier tomeasure and dominated international trade when the datacollection systems were established.4 In addition, goodsare typically traded through a port o entry and are trackedrelatively easily. Services, by contrast, are traded throughdiverse channels, many o which are dicult to observe.

A number o organizations, including Forrester Re-search, McKinsey Global Institute, Deloitte and ouche,and Goldman Sachs, have published studies trying toquantiy the eects o oshoring on U.S. employment.Most o these studies predict that millions o jobs could

be oshored over the coming years. Academic economistsalso have published studies estimating that millions oU.S. jobs are susceptible to oshoring.5 All o these stud-ies acknowledge the dearth o actionable data on the topicand are based on subjective assumptions.

Te manner in which oshoring will aect U.S. em-ployment is unclear. On the one hand, oshoring hasthe potential to reduce total U.S. employment i jobs arerelocated to other nations. On the other hand, servicesexports may create new jobs within the United States and

thereore raise total employment.6 In addition, individualoccupations are not likely to experience these eects uni-ormly, because some occupations are more susceptibleto oshoring than others and some may ace additionalbarriers to oshoring. I individuals lose their jobs in vul-

nerable occupations, they may need to obtain retrainingbeore moving into another occupation. As a result, it isimportant to identiy which occupations may be aectedby oshoring.

Several studies have addressed services oshoring roman occupational perspective. Common among them is anattempt to identiy the characteristics that make an oc-cupation susceptible to oshoring. Ashok Bardhan andCynthia Kroll, among the rst to do so, concluded thatoshorable occupations have no ace-to-ace customerservicing requirement, high inormation content, awork process that is telecommutable and Internet en-abled, a high wage dierential with a similar occupa-tion in the oshore destination, low setup barriers, anda low social networking requirement.7 On the basis othese characteristics, and using the Standard OccupationalClassication (SOC) system,8 those authors identied 49occupations as susceptible. Te majority o these occupa-tions all into three SOC occupational groups: oce andadministrative support occupations, business and nancialoperations occupations, and computer and mathematicaloccupations. Bardhan and Kroll used data rom the BLSOccupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey to es-

timate that these 49 occupations accounted or 14 mil-lion jobs, or 11 percent o total employment, in 2001. Teauthors limited their list to occupations that the businessliterature indicated were already being oshored at thetime o their analysis, which may explain why the numbero occupations identied in Bardhan and Krolls study islower than the number identied herein.

In an attempt to determine which jobs are able to beoshored, and the number o jobs that could be oshored,Alan Blinder created an occupational ranking system.9 Hestated that services which can be transmitted electroni-cally with no reduction in quality can be oshored and

all other services cannot. Most occupations, however, pro-vide some services that can be transmitted electronicallyand some that must be delivered in person. Consequently,some occupations are more oshorable than others, creat-ing an oshorability spectrum. Blinders system, based oninormation rom the Occupational Inormation Network(O*NE),10 in addition to his own judgment, assigned eachoccupation a position in this spectrum. He then used theresults to estimate that about 291 occupations are o-shorable. Blinder based his occupational classications on


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the SOC system, but divided several occupations, resultingin additional occupations not included in the SOC system.He used data rom the OES survey to estimate that these291 occupations accounted or about 38 million jobs, or29 percent o total employment, in 2004.

Blinders analysis, however, is not directly comparableto the one presented here, because he included about 9million jobs rom production occupations and construc-tion and extraction occupations, two SOC groups thatare not considered service-providing groups. In addition,Blinder included residual occupations in his analysis.

With the production occupations, construction and ex-traction occupations, and residual occupations removedto make the two analyses comparable, Blinder would nd152 occupations susceptible to oshoring; about 3 in 4occupations that appear in his oshorability spectrum

would appear here as well, with most o the disagreementsoccurring among occupations with lower susceptibilitiesto oshoring.

J. Bradord Jensen and Lori G. Kletzer responded tothe previous subjective studies by creating an objectiveranking system based on data on occupational character-istics developed byO*NE.11 According to their analysis,the characteristics that increase susceptibility to oshor-ing are getting inormation, processing inormation,analyzing data or inormation, documenting/record-ing inormation, and interacting with computers. Techaracteristics that decrease susceptibility are assisting or

caring or others, perorming or working directly withthe public, establishing or maintaining interpersonalrelationships, making decisions and solving problems,thinking creatively, and inspecting equipment, struc-tures, or material.12O*NE attempts to quantiy, throughnumeric ratings, the signicance that each characteristicplays in each occupation. Using these ratings, Jensen andKletzer assigned a score to each occupation and rankedoccupations on the basis o that score. Tey then used therankings to gauge how susceptible an occupation is to be-ing oshored, thereby creating an oshorability spectrumo 457 SOC occupations.13 Tere are some similarities

between their spectrum and the list o occupations pre-sented herein, with 131 o the occupations on the latterlist appearing in the top hal o Jensen and Kletzers spec-trum. Tere also are some large discrepancies, however,

with several o the occupations with the highest levels osusceptibility on the list presented here appearing in thebottom hal o Jensen and Kletzers list.

Te BLS Employment Projections Program has beenstudying the oshoring o service-providing occupationsor the past decade, employing more than 20 economists

who study occupations to make 10-year employment pro-jections. Because oshoring is a actor that may aect u-ture employment levels, BLS economists have researchedthe topic heavily and collectively have amassed a base oknowledge that covers the vast majority o occupations in

the U.S. economy.14 Te study described in this article usesthat knowledge to analyze the issue o oshoring.

The BLS oshoring scoring system

Te BLS oshoring scoring system identies character-istics that make an occupation susceptible to being o-shored and ranks occupations by level o susceptibility.

Te system covers the 515 service-providing occupationslisted in the SOC manual.15 (See table 1.)

Many o these occupations, however, have no possibil-ity o being susceptible to oshoring, rendering a detailedanalysis o them unnecessary. Te rst step o the analysis,thereore, was to identiy the occupations that had insur-mountable barriers to oshoring. Most o these occupa-tions either require ace-to-ace interaction with custom-ers or require the work to be perormed in a xed location.(As examples, physical therapists and barbers belong inthe rst category, security guards and landscaping work-ers in the second.) Other occupations that were excludeddue to insurmountable barriers were ones that perormintrinsically governmental unctions, such as judges and

correctional ocers. Ater all occupations that were con-sidered not at all susceptible were removed, the remaining160 occupations were deemed susceptible to oshoringand were analyzed more closely. (See tables A1 and A2or a ull list o these occupations.)

BLS economists answered a series o questions regardingthe characteristics o these 160 occupations. Te questions

were designed to measure each o the our characteristicsthat make an occupation susceptible to oshoring: inputsand outputs that can travel easily across long distances,such as electronically over the Internet; work that requireslittle interaction with other types o workers; work that

requires little knowledge o the social or cultural idiosyn-crasies o the target market; and work that is routine innature. (See exhibit 1.) For each occupation, all our ques-tions were answered by the economist who specializes inthat occupation.

In order or an occupation to be oshored, the servicesthat the worker provides must be able to travel across in-ternational borders. Te more eciently this can be done,the easier and more benecial oshoring becomes. Workin which the main product is inormation or digital com-


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Services Oshoring


Table 1.. Service-providing occupational groups

SOCOccupational group

Number o Oshorable Highest Middle- Lowestcode occupations occupations ranked ranked ranked

occupations occupations occupations

All service-providing occupations .......................... 515 160 33 94 33

110000 Management occupations ............................ ....................... 31 14 0 2 12130000 Business and fnancial operations occupations ........... 27 21 4 12 5

1529 Proessional and related occupations........................... ... 204 84 11 60 13150000 Computer and mathematical occupations .................... 14 14 2 11 1170000 Architecture and engineering occupations................... 32 26 3 17 6190000 Lie, physical, and social science occupations .............. 38 23 2 17 4210000 Community and social services occupations ................ 13 0 0 0 0230000 Legal occupations ............................. .............................. ........ 8 4 2 2 0250000 Education, training, and library occupations ................ 22 1 0 1 0270000 Arts, design, entertainment, sports,

and media occupations .............................. ....................... 36 12 0 10 2290000 Health care practitioners and technical occupations 41 4 2 2 0

3139 Service occupations ......................... .............................. ........ 88 2 1 1 0310000 Health care support occupations .............................. ........ 14 1 1 0 0330000 Protective service occupations ............................. ............. 19 1 0 1 0

350000 Food preparation and serving related occupations ... 16 0 0 0 0370000 Building and grounds cleaningand maintenance occupations .......................... ............. 8 0 0 0 0

390000 Personal care and service occupations ........................... 31 0 0 0 0

410000 Sales and related occupations.......................... .................. 20 10 2 5 3430000 Oce and administrative support occupations .......... 52 27 15 12 0490000 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations .... 49 2 0 2 0530000 Transportation and material moving occupations ..... 44 0 0 0 0

Note: Occupational groups exclude residual occupations not included in the analysis.

munication can be oshored more readily than work thatmay occasionally involve ace-to-ace communication orproducts that are not as easily transportable. (Mathemati-cians and telemarketers are examples o the rst category,

while sales representatives are an example o the second.)High levels o interaction across an organizations de-

partments can make an occupation dicult to oshore.Logistical problems can arise when such interaction takesplace over long distances or across time zones, reducingthe benets o oshoring. General operations managers,or example, must maintain contact with all branches oan organization. Computer programmers, by contrast,can perorm their duties with little to no interaction withthose in other parts o an organization.

I the duties o an occupation require amiliarity withthe cultural or social idiosyncrasies o the target marketthe kind o knowledge that can be obtained only by liv-ing in that marketperorming those duties rom abroad

would be dicult. Marketing managers, or example, mustunderstand the tastes o the population to whom theymarket their products. ax preparers, however, need onlyknow tax laws and a clients nancial inormation, both o

which can be obtained rom places across the globe. Work that can be routinized or handled by ollowing

a script is more susceptible to oshoring because theoutputs, as well as the processes by which they should becompleted, are easier to dene. With such occupations, itis easier or companies to gauge whether the work is be-ing completed, and less management oversight is needed.By contrast, work that is more creative is more dicultto monitor, making companies less likely to have it per-ormed rom remote locations. Nuclear engineers, orexample, engage in detailed research and development,

whereas insurance underwriters generally ollow a set oinstructions and are not part o an organizations creativeunctions.

Te oshoring scoring system accounts or the de-gree to which each o the oregoing our characteristics

infuences an occupation. BLS economists were able toindicate whether each characteristic applied to an oc-cupation to a very low degree, to a low degree, to a highdegree, or to a very high degree. By not being limitedto a simple binary response, the economists were betterable to classiy occupations that have a range o dutiesor specialties, some o which may be more susceptibleto oshoring than others. he disadvantage o mul-tiple options, o course, is the risk o inconsistency ; tolimit this risk, all scoring was reviewed by a team o


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Exhibit 1. Oshoring susceptibility questions, 200616

1. To what degree can the inputs and Very low degree Low degree High degree Very high degreeoutputs o the occupation be transmitted (1 point) (2 points) (3 points) (4 points)electronically, or otherwise be easily

and cheaply transported?2. To what degree do the duties o this Very low degree Low degree High degree Very high degree

occupation require interaction with (4) (3) (2) (1)other types o workers?

3. To what degree is knowledge o Very low degree Low degree High degree Very high degree

social and cultural idiosyncrasies, (4) (3) (2) (1)or other local knowledge, needed tocarry out the tasks o this occupation?

4. To what degree can the work o Very low degree Low degree High degree Very high degree

the occupation be routinized or (1) (2) (3) (4)handled by ollowing a script?

economists who had not done the original scoring, inorder to ensure that dierent analysts applied the samestandards.

Ater the questions were answered or all 160 occu-pations, the responses were used to generate a score oreach occupation. Each question was worth a maximum o4 points and a minimum o 1, with a 4 representing thegreatest susceptibility to oshoring. As a result, the high-est susceptibility score that an occupation could receive

was 16, the lowest, 4. Te scores were used to rank theoccupations by susceptibility to oshoring.On the basis o the distribution o the susceptibility

scores, the 160 occupations were divided into three groupsin order to compare occupations with similar degrees osusceptibility. Tose with scores o 1316 were grouped asthe occupations with the highest susceptibility to oshor-ing, while those with scores o 47 were grouped as theoccupations with the lowest susceptibility. Tirty-threeoccupations ell into the highest group, and another 33ell into the lowest, with the remaining 94 alling into themiddle group. (See tables A1 and A2.)

It is important to note that the questions posed inthe scoring system are based strictly on an occupationscharacteristics; thus, the rankings they generate are onlya measure o the degree to which the duties o these oc-cupations can be perormed rom a remote location. Teyindicate nothing about the likelihood, scale, or any othermeasure o oshoring. Occupations that exhibit similarlevels o susceptibility do not necessarily have the samerisk o being oshored.

For example, tax preparers and physicists are 2 occu-

pations that score among the top 33 on the basis o oc-cupational characteristics, but other actors signicantlylimit the extent to which these occupations actually maybe moved oshore. Electronic documents and electronicling allow tax preparers to be located almost anywherein the world, but these developments, along with newsotware, also allow individuals to do their own taxesmore easily. Tis actor may reduce the demand or these

workers, as well as the likelihood that they will be moved

oshore. Physicists, by contrast, ace other restrictions tooshoring, including the act that many physicists areemployed by, or receive signicant unding rom, the Fed-eral Governmentunding that would not be available tothem overseas.

Te oshoring analysis system was initially createdto account or an emerging trend in a systematic man-ner. Ater the development o the 200616 employmentprojections, the project was expanded to address a broaderrange o goals. In addition to improving the accuracy othe projections, it was determined that the results wouldbe used to contribute to the publicly available inorma-

tion on oshoring, a topic o concern or many individu-als, groups, and organizations. Te occupational rankingscan provide urther insight into the topic, one that is stilllargely misunderstood and dicult to measure. In addi-tion, detailed data are presented here on individual oc-cupations, as well as on the oshorable occupations as a

whole. Oshoring is only one o many actors that canaect occupations. No attempt should be made to attri-bute growth rates in an occupation, or dierences betweenoccupations, to oshoring.


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Services Oshoring


Table 2. Average annual percent change in employment andearnings o susceptible occupational categories,200107

Average AverageSusceptible annual annual

occupational categoriesNumber

percent percentochange in change inoccupations

employment earnings

All service-providingoccupations ......................... ............ 515 1.3 3.1

All oshorable occupations ..... 160 1.5 3.6Highest ranked occupations . 33 .4 2.8Middle ranked occupations .. 94 2.2 3.7Lowest ranked occupations .. 33 1.8 3.4

SOURCE: Occupational Employment Statistics (OES). Table excludes dataor occupations in SOC 110000 (management occupations) and or fveadditional occupations or which 2001 data are not available.

Data

Occupational employment and wage data or the 200107 period come rom the OES survey, which collects dataon 801 detailed SOC occupations, including all o the 160

service-providing occupations analyzed in this article. Anestablishment-based instrument, the OES survey providesestimates on employment and wages or wage and salary

workers in nonarm establishments, but does not provideestimates or sel-employed workers.

Te OES data presented in this study span the years200107, starting with the rst year o data available onthe 2000 SOC system.16 Although 2007 data are avail-able or all occupations, changes in survey methodologysince 2001 do not allow or historical comparisons or 19occupations. Tereore, rates o change or employmentand wages in these occupations were not included in thisanalysis.

Te analysis also presents several other data series romthe Employment Projections Program, including the200616 employment projection or each o the occupa-tions deemed susceptible to oshoring. In addition, edu-cational attainment data are presented to provide urtherdemographic inormation. In an eort to refect currenteducational needs, the analysis examines the educationalattainment o younger workersthe percentage o 25- to44-year-olds working in the occupation who have a highschool diploma or less, some college or an associates degree,

or a college diploma (a bachelors degree) or higher.17

ables 2 and 3 present summary gures or these dataseries, and tables A1 and A2 contain detailed data oneach o the 160 susceptible occupations. In addition, orcomparison purposes, data also are presented on all serv-ice-providing occupations aggregated together. (See table1.) Note that, although comparison against a benchmarkprovides some context or the data on oshorable occu-pations, dierences should not be ascribed to oshoring;many other actors also are in play that will cause dier-ences between sets o occupations.

Overall results

Te oshorable occupations are quite diverse in their jobunctions, educational attainment, and wages. More thanhal o the 160 oshorable occupations are classied asproessional and related occupations, a classication thatincludes a variety o proessional and technical occupa-tions. Particularly noteworthy is that almost every com-puter and mathematical science occupation has some de-gree o susceptibility to oshoring. One o the reasons that,

or example, computer specialists are susceptible to beingoshored is the ease with which computer programs andservices can be transmitted electronically. Tere are also27 oce and administrative support occupations on thelist. Fourteen managerial occupations appear on the list as

well, although most o them are classied as occupationsleast susceptible to being oshored.

As a group, these 160 occupations accounted or about30 million jobs in 2007, more than one-th o total em-ployment. (See table 3.) Te occupations grew at an averageannual rate o 1.5 percent rom 2001 to 2007, aster thanthe 1.3-percent rate or all service-providing occupations.

Furthermore, the 160 oshorable occupations are pro-jected to continue to grow aster than all service-providingoccupations rom 2006 to 2016, at an average annual rateo 1.2 percent, compared with 1.1 percent or the latteroccupations. Wages in the oshorable occupations grew by3.6 percent per year rom 2001 to 2007, also aster thanthe 3.1-percent annual growth or all service-providingoccupations. Te 2007 mean annual wages o $61,473 inthe oshorable occupations were signicantly higher thanthe 2007 mean wages o $41,610 or all service-provid-ing occupations. Fity-our percent o the workers in theoshorable occupations possessed a bachelors or higher

degree, and more than 80 percent had at least some collegeeducation. Tese numbers, again, are higher than those orall service-providing occupations, in which 37 percent o

workers had a bachelors or higher degree and another 31percent had some college education.

Highest ranked. Te 33 occupations most susceptible tooshoring accounted or 9.5 million jobs in 2007. (Seetable 3.) Te characteristics o these occupations refect a

wide range o skills and education. Fiteen are oce and


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administrative support occupations, with relatively loweducation or training requirements. Another 11 are pro-essional and related occupations, which generally possesshigher educational requirements. No management occu-pations are ound in this group.

Wage and salary employment o the occupations mostsusceptible to oshoring grew slowly, just 0.4 percent per

year rom 2001 to 2007. (See table 2.) Tis rate o growth was signicantly lower than the 1.3 percent exhibitedby all service-providing occupations over the period. Asa group, these 33 occupations are projected to grow by1.1 percent per year rom 2006 to 2016, equivalent to theprojection or all service-providing occupations. (See table3.) Individually, 20 o the 33 occupations most suscep-tible to oshoring are expected to experience employmentgrowth, while 13 are expected to decline.

Mean annual wages or the most susceptible occupa-tions were $38,201 in 2007, compared with $41,610 orall service-providing occupations. Wages or the mostsusceptible occupations grew more slowly (2.8 percentper year) than wages or all service-providing occupa-tions (3.1 percent). Te educational attainment o work-ers in the most susceptible group also was relatively low,

with about 30 percent holding a bachelors or higher de-gree, compared with 37 percent or all service-providingoccupations.

Middle ranked. Te 94 occupations that scored in the

middle range o the oshoring analysis accounted or14.3 million jobs in 2007. (See table 3.) Te makeup othese occupations refects the wide range o service-pro-

viding occupations that are susceptible to oshoring, butis weighted toward the more highly skilled occupations.Sixty-two o these occupations are proessional and re-lated occupations, and 12 are management, business, and

nancial occupations. Among the proessional and relatedoccupations are sizable numbers o architecture and en-gineering occupations; lie, physical, and social scienceoccupations; and computer and mathematical science oc-cupations. Other occupational groups that are well rep-

resented include arts, design, entertainment, sports, andmedia occupations, as well as oce and administrativesupport occupations.

Wage and salary employment in the middle-rankedoccupations grew by 2.2 percent per year rom 2001 to2007, much aster than the 1.3-percent growth rate or allservice-providing occupations. (See table 2.) Te middle-ranked occupations are projected to grow by 1.3 percentper year over the 200616 period, compared with 1.1 per-cent or all service-providing occupations. Ninety o themiddle-ranked occupations are projected to grow, while 4are projected to decline.

Average annual wages or the middle-ranked occupa-tions in 2007 were much higher ($62,564) than those orall service-providing occupations ($41,610). Wage growthrom 2001 to 2007 averaged 3.7 percent per year, asterthan the 3.1-percent growth rate or all service-provid-ing occupations. Te educational attainment o workers inthe middle-ranked occupations also was higher, with 61.7percent holding a bachelors or higher degree, compared

with 37 percent or all service-providing occupations; only12.9 percent o workers in the middle group had no morethan a high school diploma, as opposed to 32.0 percent o

all service-providing workers.

Lowest ranked. Te 33 occupations in the least suscep-tible group accounted or 6.5 million jobs in 2007. (Seetable 3.) Tis group consists largely o highly skilled oc-cupations, 30 o which are proessional and related occu-pations or management, business, and nancial operations

Table 3. Employment, projected employment change, educational attainment, and earnings o susceptible occupationalcategories

Average annualpercent change in Mean annual

Number o Employment, 2007 employment, wages, 2007occupations (in thousands) projected

200616 High school Some college College

All service-providing occupations ... 515 117,052 1.1 32.0 31.0 37.0 $41,610All oshorable occupations ............. 160 30,310 1.2 16.6 29.3 54.0 61,473

Highest ranked occupations ....... 33 9,476 1.1 27.2 42.4 30.4 38,201Middle-ranked occupations ........ 94 14,306 1.3 12.9 25.4 61.7 62,564Lowest ranked occupations ........ 33 6,527 1.1 14.0 24.9 61.1 92,868

Sources: Projected employment change, 200616: BLSNational Employment Matrix; employment and mean annual wages, 2007: BLSOccupationalEmployment Statistics, percent distribution by educational attainment: authors calculation rom American Community Survey Public Use Microdata.

Percent distribution byeducational attainmentSusceptible

occupationalcategories


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Services Oshoring


Table 4. Average annual change in employment and wages and projected employment growth, by education group

Number o Employment, 2007

Percent change in Average annualAverage annual

Education groupoccupations (thousands)

employment, percent change in

percent change in

200107 wages, 200107employment,

projected 200616

High education, all service-providing occupations ... 108 27,337 2.5 3.4 1.4High education, oshorable occupations ..................... 97 15,192 3.0 3.5 1.5

Low education, all service-providing occupations .... 302 89,715 1.1 2.6 1.0Low education, oshorable occupations ...................... 63 15,118 .5 2.9 .9

NOTE: High education: bachelors degree or higher; low education: associates degree or less.

SOURCES: Projected employment change, 200616: BLS National Employment Matrix; 2007 employment, and percent change in employment and wages,200107: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics.

occupations. Management occupations are heavily repre-sented, accounting or 12 o the 33 in the group. No oceand administrative support occupations are included.

Employment o the lowest ranked occupations grewby 1.8 percent per year rom 2001 to 2007, aster than

the 1.3-percent rate or all service-providing occupations.Employment o the lowest-ranked occupations is pro-

jected to grow by 1.1 percent per year rom 2006 to 2016,the same rate as that projected or all service-providingoccupations. Growth is expected in all but one o theseoccupationswholesale and retail buyers, except armproductswhich is projected to decline by a negligibleamount.

Average annual wages or the least susceptible groupin 2007 were $92,868, compared with $41,610 or allservice-providing occupations. In addition, the wages oreach o the 33 occupations in the least susceptible group

were above the average or all service-providing occupa-tions. Wage growth in the group averaged 3.4 percentper year rom 2001 to 2007, aster than the 3.1-percentgrowth rate or all service-providing occupations. Educa-tional attainment o the workers in the least susceptibleoccupations was high, with 61.1 percent o workers hold-ing a bachelors or higher degree.

Education groupings. Another method o analyzing thesusceptible occupations is to group them by educationalattainment and observe the dierences among the groups.

During the projections process, analysts assign an educa-tion or training category to each occupation.18 Occupa-tions classied as bachelors degree or higher were placedinto one group, while occupations classied as associatesdegree or less were placed into another.19 Ninety-sevenoshorable occupations, accounting or 15.2 million jobs

in 2007, were classied as bachelors degree or higher, withthe remaining 63 oshorable occupations accounting or15.1 million jobs in 2007. (See table 4.) For comparisonpurposes, all service-providing occupations also wereplaced into corresponding education groups.

Over the 200107 period, oshorable occupations inthe bachelors-degree-or-higher group grew by 3.0 per-cent per year, aster than the 2.5-percent growth rate orall bachelors-degree-or-higher service-providing occupa-tions. (See table 4.) In contrast, oshorable occupations inthe associates-degree-or-less group grew by 0.5 percentper year, slower than the 1.1-percent growth rate or allassociates-degree-or-less service-providing occupations.Oshorable occupations in the bachelors-degree-or-higher group are projected to grow slightly aster thanservice-providing occupations in that same group1.5percent, compared with 1.4 percentand oshorableoccupations in the associates-degree-or-less group areprojected to grow slightly more slowly than service-pro-

viding occupations in that group0.9 percent, compared with 1.0 percent. Wages in the bachelors-degree-or-higher oshorable occupations grew by 3.5 percent per

year rom 2001 to 2007, compared with 3.4 percent orall bachelors-degree-or-higher service-providing occupa-tions. Wages or the associates-degree-or-less oshorableoccupations grew by 2.9 percent per year over the sameperiod, compared with 2.6 percent or all associates-de-gree-or-less service-providing occupations.

HE PHENOMENON OF OFFSHORING, together with itspotential eects on the U.S. labor market, has generatedmuch attention. Tis article does not quantiy those e-ects, but instead attempts to determine the occupationsthat may be aected by oshoring. Te article nds that


9/16


160 occupations are susceptible to oshoring and presentsconsiderable data on those occupations. Although the e-ects o oshoring cannot be measured, it is noteworthythat the oshorable occupations grew slightly aster thanall service-providing occupations rom 2001 to 2007 and

are projected to grow slightly aster than all service-pro-viding occupations rom 2006 to 2016. In addition, theoshorable occupations are quite diverse in their job unc-

tions, educational attainment, and wages. Tese ndingswarrant urther research and analysis, but the dearth oadditional relevant data, rom either the BLS or othersources, makes most conclusions speculative at this point.As a result, the analysis undertaken here attempts only to

add to the discourse on oshoring by compiling a list osusceptible occupations, as well as presenting data, bothhistorical and projected, on those occupations.

Notes

ACKNOWLEDGMEN: Te authors would like to thank Sadie Blanchard andNicholas K. errell, economists ormerly in the BLS Oce o Occupational Sta-tistics and Employment Projections, or their contributions to the research andanalysis presented herein.

1 In this article, service-providing occupations reers to occupations in StandardOccupational Classication (SOC) major groups 11 through 43, 49, and 53. Itdoes not denote the SOC intermediate aggregation service occupations, whichcover only major groups 31 through 39. (See table 1.)

2 Ofshoring: An Elusive Phenomenon, report or the U.S. Congress and theBureau o Economic Analysis (National Academy o Public Administration,January 2006).

3 Bureau o Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accountsable, able 4.6.2, Real Exports and Imports o Goods and Services by ypeo Product, Chained Dollars.

4 Why We Cant Measure the Economic Efects o Services Ofshoring: Te DataGaps and How to Fill Tem, Services Oshoring Working Group nal report(Cambridge, MA, Massachusetts Institute o echnology, Industrial Peror-

mance Center, Sept. 10, 2006).

5See, or example, Alan Blinder, How Many U.S. Jobs Might Be Ofshorable?Princeton University CEPS Working Paper No. 142 (Princeton, NJ, PrincetonUniversity Press, March 2007); and Ashok Bardhan and Cynthia Kroll, he

New Wave o Outsourcing, Fisher Center or Real Estate and Urban Econom-ics Research Report Series No. 1103, October 2003, on the Internet at ssrn.com/abstract=985741.

6 For a discussion o the uncertainty o the eect o oshoring on unemploy-ment, see Jagdish Bhagwati, Arvind Panagariya, and . N. Srinivasan, Te Mud-dles over Outsourcing,Journal o Economic Perspectives, all 2004, pp. 93114.

7 Bardhan and Kroll, Te New Wave, p. 4.

8 See Standard Occupational Classication Manual: 2000 (Bureau o LaborStatistics, 2000).

9 Blinder, How Many U.S. Jobs?

10 Te Occupational Inormation Network is an occupational inormation re-

source developed by the Employment and raining Administration o the U.S.Department o Labor.

11 J. Bradord Jensen and Lori G. Kletzer, Measuring radable Services andthe ask Content o Oshorable Service Jobs, paper prepared or the NationalBureau o Economic Research Conerence on Research in Income and Wealth,titled Labor in the New Economy, Nov. 1617, 2007, Washington, DC.

12Ibid., p. 9.

13 Jensen and Kletzers analysis covers SOC major groups 11 through 43.

14 See Accounting or Oshoring in Occupational Employment Projections,Occupational Projections and raining Data, 200607, Bulletin 2602 (Bureau oLabor Statistics, February 2006).

15 Within SOC groups 11 through 43, 49, and 53, all residual occupationswere removed beore analysis due to the diculty o accurately dening thejob duties o those occupations. In addition, in keeping with the ormat o theNational Employment Matrixwhich displays BLS estimates o current andprojected employment by detailed industry and detailed occupationsummaryoccupations were used or postsecondary teachers and or physicians and sur-geons. It is unlikely that the various specialties within these occupations dierin the degree to which oshoring aects them.

16 Figures or 1999 and 2000 are available, but are considered less reliable dueto OES methodology. Because data on the surveys ull sample o 1.2 millionestablishments are collected over a period o 3 yearsapproximately 200,000establishments every 6 monthsthe initial 2 years o data do not represent aull sample. Te OES survey rst adopted the SOC in 1999 and completed its rstull sample in 2001.

17 Full descriptions o all o these data sources are available in EmploymentProjections: Occupational Projections and raining Data (Bureau o Labor Statis-tics, 200809), on the Internet at www.bls.gov/emp/optd/home.htm.

18 Eleven education or training categories are used, ranging rom short-termon-the-job training to rst proessional degree. Tese categories refect the most

signicant source o education or training or each occupation, but certainly notthe only source.

19 In order to prevent the groupings o occupations rom being too small, thesusceptibility rankings were ignored or this part o the analysis.


10/16

Services Oshoring


Table A1. Data on oshorable occupations: employment and wage variables

Average annualEmployment,

Average annualOccupation title Susceptibility percent change

2007percent change in Mean annual

score in employment,(thousands)

employment, wages, 2007200107 projected 200616

Highest ranked occupations151021 Computer programmers ........................... .................. 16 3.9 395 0.4 $72,010292052 Pharmacy technicians ........................... ....................... 16 6.5 302 2.8 27,560412022 Parts salespersons .............................. ............................ 16 1.0 230 .2 30,540432021 Telephone operators .............................. ....................... 16 13.6 24 4.9 32,690433021 Billing and posting clerks and machine

operators ......................... .............................. .................. 16 1.2 515 .4 31,080439011 Computer operators .......................... ............................ 16 6.7 117 2.8 36,080439021 Data entry keyers .......................... ............................. .... 16 5.6 287 .5 26,350439022 Word processors and typists .............................. ........ 16 7.9 139 1.2 31,580132082 Tax preparers ............................. .............................. ........ 15 .7 62 .9 34,890319094 Medical transcriptionists ........................... .................. 15 1.3 87 1.3 32,120419041 Telemarketers ............................ .............................. ........ 15 3.5 354 1.0 24,430

433051 Payroll and timekeeping clerks .......................... ........ 15 1.1 202 .3 34,500439081 Prooreaders and copy markers ............................ .... 15 7.6 16 .6 30,930

132041 Credit analysts ........................... .............................. ........ 14 1.0 71 .2 62,820132053 Insurance underwriters .............................. .................. 14 1.1 99 .6 60,120173013 Mechanical draters ........................... ............................ 14 1.2 74 .5 46,690291051 Pharmacists ........................... .............................. ............. 14 2.1 253 2.0 98,960432011 Switchboard operators, including answering

service ......................... .............................. ....................... 14 5.7 160 .9 24,460433011 Bill and account collectors ............................. ............. 14 1.0 410 2.1 31,630434021 Correspondence clerks..................................... ............. 14 12.3 16 1.1 30,600132051 Financial analysts .......................... ............................. .... 13 6.4 228 3.0 81,700151041 Computer support specialists ........................... ........ 13 1.1 526 1.2 45,300

173011 Architectural and civil draters .......................... ..... 13 2.0 111 .6 45,280173012 Electrical and electronics draters ......................... 13 3.2 32 .4 51,710191021 Biochemists and biophysicists .......................... ..... 13 3.2 19 1.5 85,290192012 Physicists ........................... .............................. ............... 13 4.3 14 .7 99,900232011 Paralegals and legal assistants .......................... ..... 13 4.7 241 2.0 47,600232093 Title examiners, abstracters, and searchers ........ 13 6.5 62 .1 41,140

433031 Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 13 1.5 1,859 1.2 32,780433061 Procurement clerks ............................ ......................... 13 .5 77 .2 34,570434041 Credit authorizers, checkers, and clerks .............. 13 2.5 67 .9 31,200434051 Customer service representatives ......................... 13 2.6 2,193 2.2 31,040439041 Insurance claims and policy processing clerks .. 13 1.7 233 .1 33,780

Middle-ranked occupations131081 Logisticians ............................ .............................. ............. 12 90 1.6 66,240151061 Database administrators ........................... .................. 12 1.8 116 2.5 70,260152031 Operations research analysts ............................. ........ 12 .4 59 1.0 71,640172011 Aerospace engineers ............................. ....................... 12 2.4 86 1.0 92,700172061 Computer hardware engineers ............................. .... 12 2.7 79 .5 94,270172121 Marine engineers and naval architects .................. 12 5.3 7 1.0 78,200191022 Microbiologists .............................. ............................. .... 12 1.0 15 1.1 66,430192031 Chemists ............................ .............................. .................. 12 1.0 80 .9 68,520

193093 Historians .......................... .............................. .................. 12 10.2 4 .8 54,630

274032 Film and video editors ........................... ....................... 12 4.0 17 1.2 61,180413041 Travel agents ......................... .............................. ............. 12 4.3 86 .1 32,190434011 Brokerage clerks ............................. ............................. .... 12 2.5 71 1.8 39,990434111 Interviewers, except eligibility and loan ................ 12 4.8 227 .9 28,190434141 New-accounts clerks .............................. ....................... 12 1.9 89 1.8 30,450434181 Reservation and transportation ticket

agents and travel clerks ............................ ............... 12 1.5 167 .1 31,080492091 Avionics technicians ........................... ......................... 12 .0 16 .8 48,240

493011 Aircrat mechanics and service technicians .......... 12 2.1 119 1.0 49,670131021 Purchasing agents and buyers, arm products .... 11 5.0 13 .9 53,980132061 Financial examiners ............................ ............................ 11 .6 26 1.0 73,550

SOC

code

See ootnotes at end o table.

APPENDIX: Employment, wages, and education in oshorable occupations


11/16


Middle-ranked occupations (continued)

152021 Mathematicians ............................. ............................. . . 11 .4 3 1.0 90,930152091 Mathematical technicians .......................... .................. 11 7.5 1 .8 48,490172041 Chemical engineers ........................... ............................ 11 1.6 29 .8 84,240172071 Electrical engineers ........................... ............................ 11 .3 149 .6 82,090172072 Electronics engineers, except computer ............... 11 1.4 134 .4 85,550

172131 Materials engineers ........................... ............................ 11 .7 22 .4 78,840172141 Mechanical engineers ........................... ....................... 11 1.4 222 .4 75,130192011 Astronomers ......................... .............................. ............. 11 9.1 2 .5 98,200193011 Economists ............................ .............................. ............. 11 .8 13 .7 86,700271014 Multimedia artists and animators ............................ 11 .6 29 2.3 61,010339021 Private detectives and investigators ....................... 11 3.0 37 1.7 42,660434151 Order clerks ........................... .............................. ............. 11 4.6 256 2.8 28,510113061 Purchasing managers ............................. ....................... 10 66 .3 90,430

131023 Purchasing agents, except wholesale, retail,and arm products ........................... ............................ 10 3.6 282 .0 56,060

132011 Accountants and auditors .............................. ............. 10 4.0 1,115 1.6 63,180151011 Computer and inormation scientists, research .. 10 1.9 29 2.0 100,640151031 Computer sotware engineers, applications ........ 10 5.4 496 3.8 85,660151071 Network and computer systems administrators . 10 5.2 310 2.4 67,850152011 Actuaries ............................ .............................. .................. 10 5.3 18 2.2 95,420173031 Surveying and mapping technicians ...................... 10 4.2 72 1.8 35,900192021 Atmospheric and space scientists ............................ 10 4.4 9 1.0 78,960

193091 Anthropologists and archeologists ......................... 10 3.8 5 1.4 55,490194021 Biological technicians ............................ ....................... 10 8.0 69 1.5 40,240194031 Chemical technicians ............................. ....................... 10 1.6 64 .6 42,420194051 Nuclear technicians ............................ ............................ 10 2.1 6 .7 65,850194061 Social science research assistants ............................ 10 16 1.2 38,120231011 Lawyers ......................... .............................. ....................... 10 2.1 556 1.0 118,280292051 Dietetic technicians ........................... ............................ 10 2.7 25 1.4 26,680

413021 Insurance sales agents .......................... ....................... 10 3.0 322 1.2 58,580

439031 Desktop publishers ............................ ............................ 10 2.8 29 .1 37,470113041 Compensation and benefts managers ................... 9 42 1.1 88,400131031 Claims adjusters, examiners, and investigators .. 9 5.7 279 .9 55,470131072 Compensation, benefts, and job analysis

specialists ............................. .............................. ............. 9 5.1 110 1.7 55,740132031 Budget analysts ............................. ............................. .... 9 .5 62 .7 66,310132052 Personal fnancial advisors ............................. ............. 9 7.9 132 3.5 89,220132072 Loan ocers .......................... .............................. ............. 9 8.9 357 1.1 62,610151032 Computer sotware engineers, systems

sotware .......................... .............................. .................. 9 4.9 349 2.5 90,780

151081 Network systems and data communicationsanalysts ............................ .............................. .................. 9 9.4 216 4.4 70,760

172031 Biomedical engineers ............................ ....................... 9 14.2 15 1.9 79,610172161 Nuclear engineers .............................. ............................ 9 .1 14 .7 97,130

173023 Electrical and electronic engineering technicians 9 5.0 162 .4 52,470173024 Electromechanical technicians ............................. .... 9 15.1 16 .3 48,120173027 Mechanical engineering technicians ...................... 9 2.7 46 .6 49,290192032 Materials scientists ............................. ............................ 9 2.6 10 .8 77,930193021 Market research analysts ........................... .................. 9 12.5 221 1.8 66,980

193022 Survey researchers ............................. ............................ 9 1.1 22 1.5 42,880193094 Political scientists .......................... ............................. .... 9 1.1 4 .5 90,050232092 Law clerks .......................... .............................. .................. 9 4.2 31 .1 40,880271012 Crat artists ............................ .............................. ............. 9 5 .8 30,110273042 Technical writers ............................ ............................. .... 9 .3 47 1.8 62,780273043 Writers and authors ........................... ............................ 9 1.3 44 1.2 60,120

Table A1. ContinuedData on oshorable occupations: employment and wage variables


SOC

codeOccupational title

Susceptibilityscore

Average annualpercent changein employment,

200107

Employment,2007

(thousands)


projected 200616

Mean annualwages, 2007


12/16

Services Oshoring



419031 Sales engineers ......................... .............................. ........ 9 1.4 76 .8 86,350431011 First-line supervisors/managers o oce and

administrative support workers ......................... .... 9 .5 1,378 .6 47,620

434161 Human resources assistants, except payroll andtimekeeping ............................ .............................. ........ 9 .3 162 1.1 36,000

435032 Dispatchers, except police, fre, and ambulance 9 1.9 190 .2 35,500131071 Employment, recruitment, and placement

specialists ............................. .............................. ............. 8 1.8 194 1.7 52,710132021 Appraisers and assessors o real estate .................. 8 1.8 66 1.6 52,290152041 Statisticians ............................ .............................. ............. 8 2.9 20 .8 72,150171011 Architects, except landscape and naval ................. 8 3.9 107 1.6 73,650171021 Cartographers and photogrammetrists ................. 8 6.6 11 1.9 54,480173021 Aerospace engineering and operations

technicians .......................... .............................. ............. 8 10.7 8 1.0 56,780

191041 Epidemiologists ............................. ............................. .... 8 .0 4 1.3 63,600191042 Medical scientists, except epidemiologists .......... 8 11.1 87 1.9 74,160251000 Postsecondary teachers ............................. .................. 8 2.4 1,381 2.1 66,211271013 Fine artists, including painters, sculptors,

and illustrators ............................. ............................. .... 8 1.3 11 1.0 48,110271021 Commercial and industrial designers ..................... 8 .6 35 .7 60,540271022 Fashion designers .............................. ............................ 8 10.8 16 .5 71,170271024 Graphic designers .............................. ............................ 8 6.7 201 .9 45,340273041 Editors ........................... .............................. ....................... 8 .1 106 .2 55,020

291031 Dietitians and nutritionists ............................ ............. 8 3.4 53 .8 50,030414011 Sales representatives, wholesale and

manuacturing, technical and scientifcproducts .......................... .............................. .................. 8 1.4 403 1.2 76,460

414012 Sales representatives, wholesale andmanuacturing, except technical andscientifc products ........................... ............................ 8 1.8 1,506 .8 60,190

434131 Loan interviewers and clerks ............................. ........ 8 7.2 240 .1 33,220435031 Police, fre, and ambulance dispatchers ................. 8 .9 94 1.3 34,060439111 Statistical assistants ............................ ............................ 8 4.8 19 .7 34,220

Lowest ranked occupations113031 Financial managers ............................. ............................ 7 484 1.2 106,200113042 Training and development managers ..................... 7 28 1.5 90,300131073 Training and development specialists .................... 7 1.4 203 1.7 53,040131121 Meeting and convention planners .......................... 7 7.4 45 1.8 47,180132071 Loan counselors ............................. ............................. .... 7 .2 30 .4 41,990172111 Health and saety engineers, except mining

saety engineers and inspectors ........................... 7 6.2 25 .9 70,970172151 Mining and geological engineers, including

mining saety engineers .......................... .................. 7 2.7 7 1.0 79,520191012 Food scientists and technologists ............................ 7 10 1.0 62,580193041 Sociologists ........................... .............................. ............. 7 12.5 4 1.0 67,330193051 Urban and regional planners ............................. ........ 7 2.0 35 1.4 60,480273091 Interpreters and translators ........................... ............. 7 10.1 34 2.1 41,690

411012 First-line supervisors/managers o nonretailsales workers ........................... .............................. ........ 7 1.6 281 .4 78,170

413031 Securities, commodities, and fnancial servicessales agents ......................... .............................. ............. 7 .1 268 2.2 90,470

111011 Chie executives ............................. ............................. .... 6 299 .2 151,370111021 General and operations managers .......................... 6 1,655 .1 103,780113011 Administrative services managers ............................ 6 239 1.1 76,370113021 Computer and inormation systems

managers ......................... .............................. .................. 6 265 1.5 113,880



SOC

codeOccupational title Susceptibility

score


200107

Employment,2007

(thousands)


projected 200616



13/16


Lowest ranked occupations (continued)

131022 Wholesale and retail buyers, except armproducts .......................... .............................. .................. 6 .1 133 .0 53,580

151051 Computer systems analysts ........................... ............. 6 .6 464 2.6 75,890171012 Landscape architects ............................. ....................... 6 3.3 22 1.5 62,250172112 Industrial engineers .......................... ............................ 6 4.0 204 1.9 73,490191011 Animal scientists ............................ ............................. .... 6 4 .9 54,290

413011 Advertising sales agents ............................ .................. 6 1.8 161 1.9 52,290112011 Advertising and promotions managers .................. 5 36 .6 91,100112021 Marketing managers .......................... ............................ 5 165 1.4 113,400112022 Sales managers .......................... .............................. ........ 5 322 1.0 106,790112031 Public relations managers .......................... .................. 5 47 1.6 97,170119041 Engineering managers ........................... ....................... 5 184 .7 115,610119121 Natural science managers .......................... .................. 5 39 1.1 113,170131111 Management analysts ........................... ....................... 5 5.4 500 2.0 80,460

172051 Civil engineers ........................... .............................. ........ 5 3.1 247 1.7 75,230271011 Art directors .......................... .............................. ............. 5 7.5 32 .9 83,230172081 Environmental engineers .......................... .................. 4 .8 51 2.3 74,820


NOTE: Dash indicates data not available.

Table A2. Data on oshorable occupations: education variables

Percent distribution by educationalSOC attainment

code Occupation title

High school Some college College

Highest ranked occupations

151021 Computer programmers ........................... ................. 5.5 21.8 72.7 Bachelors degree292052 Pharmacy technicians ........................... ...................... 27.0 57.0 16.0 Moderate-term on-the-job training412022 Parts salespersons ......................... .............................. .. 59.0 35.1 5.9 Moderate-term on-the-job training432021 Telephone operators .............................. ...................... 40.3 48.6 11.1 Short-term on-the-job training433021 Billing and posting clerks and machine

operators ............................. .............................. ............ 36.1 48.5 15.4 Moderate-term on-the-job training439011 Computer operators ......................... ........................... 26.8 46.4 26.8 Moderate-term on-the-job training439021 Data entry keyers .......................... .............................. .. 35.2 47.0 17.7 Moderate-term on-the-job training439022 Word processors and typists .............................. ....... 29.0 51.9 19.1 Moderate-term on-the-job training132082 Tax preparers ............................. .............................. ....... 14.9 30.9 54.2 Moderate-term on-the-job training319094 Medical transcriptionists ........................... ................. 30.6 58.9 10.4 Postsecondary vocational award419041 Telemarketers ............................ .............................. ....... 50.1 35.7 14.2 Short-term on-the-job training

433051 Payroll and timekeeping clerks .......................... ....... 32.9 49.6 17.5 Moderate-term on-the-job training439081 Prooreaders and copy markers ............................. .. 21.5 31.3 47.2 Short-term on-the-job training132041 Credit analysts ........................... .............................. ....... 14.9 25.4 59.7 Bachelors degree132053 Insurance underwriters .............................. ................. 15.7 31.6 52.8 Bachelors degree173013 Mechanical draters ........................... ........................... 13.0 62.4 24.6 Postsecondary vocational award

291051 Pharmacists ........................... .............................. ............ 2.9 97.0 First proessional degree432011 Switchboard operators, includinganswering service ............................ ........................... 39.2 50.7 10.1 Short-term on-the-job training

433011 Bill and account collectors ............................. ............ 38.4 48.2 13.3 Short-term on-the-job training434021 Correspondence clerks .............................. ................. 46.8 36.7 16.4 Short-term on-the-job training132051 Financial analysts .......................... .............................. .. 3.1 9.6 87.3 Bachelors degree151041 Computer support specialists ........................... ....... 13.4 44.0 42.6 Associates degree

173011 Architectural and civil draters .......................... ....... 13.0 62.4 24.6 Postsecondary vocational award173012 Electrical and electronics draters ........................... 13.0 62.4 24.6 Postsecondary vocational award191021 Biochemists and biophysicists .......................... ....... 5.3 94.6 Doctoral degree


SOC

codeOccupational title Susceptibility

score


200107

Employment,2007

(thousands)


projected 200616


Most signifcant ormo postsecondary

education or training


14/16

Services Oshoring


Table A2. ContinuedData on oshorable occupations: education variables




Highest ranked occupations (continued)

192012 Physicists ............................. .............................. ............... 95.2 Doctoral degree232011 Paralegals and legal assistants ............................ ..... 12.7 42.7 44.6 Associates degree232093 Title examiners, abstracters, and searchers .......... 22.5 39.3 38.1 Moderate-term on-the-job training433031 Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks ... 33.7 50.3 16.0 Moderate-term on-the-job training433061 Procurement clerks ............................. ......................... 28.4 47.8 23.8 Moderate-term on-the-job training434041 Credit authorizers, checkers, and clerks ................ 35.3 36.8 27.9 Short-term on-the-job training434051 Customer service representatives .......................... . 33.8 44.2 22.0 Moderate-term on-the-job training439041 Insurance claims and policy processing clerks ... 30.5 47.5 22.0 Moderate-term on-the-job training

Middle-ranked occupations

131081 Logisticians ......................... .............................. ............... 19.2 37.9 42.9 Bachelors degree151061 Database administrators ............................. ............... 4.6 23.9 71.5 Bachelors degree152031 Operations research analysts .......................... .......... 6.6 22.7 70.7 Masters degree172011 Aerospace engineers .......................... ......................... 3.3 9.9 86.8 Bachelors degree172061 Computer hardware engineers ........................... ..... 7.2 22.8 70.0 Bachelors degree172121 Marine engineers and naval architects ................. 18.1 78.1 Bachelors degree191022 Microbiologists ........................... .............................. ..... 5.3 94.6 Doctoral degree192031 Chemists ......................... .............................. .................... 6.5 93.2 Bachelors degree

193093 Historians ............................ .............................. ............... 10.2 89.8 Masters degree274032 Film and video editors ............................. .................... 12.8 28.7 58.4 Bachelors degree413041 Travel agents ........................... .............................. .......... 25.2 48.7 26.1 Postsecondary vocational award434011 Brokerage clerks .......................... .............................. ..... 24.4 44.6 31.0 Moderate-term on-the-job training434111 Interviewers, except eligibility and loan ............... 28.0 48.0 24.0 Short-term on-the-job training434141 New-accounts clerks ........................... ......................... 36.9 35.4 27.7 Work experience in a related occupation434181 Reservation and transportation ticket

agents and travel clerks .............................. ............... 28.9 42.6 28.5 Short-term on-the-job training492091 Avionics technicians ............................ ......................... 30.9 64.5 Postsecondary vocational award

493011 Aircrat mechanics and service technicians ......... 32.9 56.6 10.5 Postsecondary vocational award

131021 Purchasing agents and buyers,arm products ........................... .............................. ..... 35.5 42.5 Long-term on-the-job training132061 Financial examiners .............................. ......................... 15.0 76.1 Bachelors degree152021 Mathematicians .......................... .............................. ..... 6.1 93.3 Doctoral degree152091 Mathematical technicians ............................ ............... 6.1 93.3 Masters degree172041 Chemical engineers ............................. ......................... 5.9 91.4 Bachelors degree172071 Electrical engineers ............................. ......................... 2.9 16.5 80.5 Bachelors degree172072 Electronics engineers, except computer .............. 2.9 16.5 80.5 Bachelors degree

172131 Materials engineers ............................. ......................... 19.1 77.0 Bachelors degree172141 Mechanical engineers ............................. .................... 3.5 18.3 78.2 Bachelors degree192011 Astronomers ........................... .............................. .......... 95.2 Doctoral degree193011 Economists ......................... .............................. ............... 99.7 Masters degree271014 Multimedia artists and animators .......................... . 13.6 28.5 58.0 Bachelors degree339021 Private detectives and investigators ...................... 17.7 30.2 52.0 Work experience in a related occupation434151 Order clerks ............................. .............................. .......... 46.8 36.7 16.4 Short-term on-the-job training113061 Purchasing managers .......................... ......................... 14.9 28.1 57.0 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience

131023 Purchasing agents, except wholesale,retail, and arm products .......................... ............... 21.8 35.8 42.4 Long-term on-the-job training

132011 Accountants and auditors ........................... ............... 3.7 17.1 79.1 Bachelors degree151011 Computer and inormation scientists, research .. 7.0 24.6 68.4 Doctoral degree151031 Computer sotware engineers, applications ....... 2.2 13.0 84.8 Bachelors degree151071 Network and computer systems administrators 8.3 41.5 50.2 Bachelor s degree152011 Actuaries ............................. .............................. ............... 98.9 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience173031 Surveying and mapping technicians ..................... 42.2 51.0 6.8 Moderate-term on-the-job training192021 Atmospheric and space scientists .......................... . 85.4 Bachelors degree

193091 Anthropologists and archeologists ........................ 10.2 89.8 Masters degree





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194021 Biological technicians .............................. .................... 13.7 25.9 60.4 Bachelors degree194031 Chemical technicians .......................... ......................... 30.3 32.5 37.2 Associates degree194051 Nuclear technicians .............................. ......................... 19.4 34.9 45.7 Associates degree194061 Social science research assistants .......................... . 19.4 34.9 45.7 Associates degree231011 Lawyers ........................... .............................. .................... .2 .7 99.1 First proessional degree292051 Dietetic technicians ............................. ......................... 27.0 57.0 16.0 Postsecondary vocational award413021 Insurance sales agents ............................ .................... 18.4 36.4 45.2 Bachelors degree

439031 Desktop publishers ............................. ......................... 24.7 43.3 31.9 Postsecondary vocational award113041 Compensation and benefts managers.................. 14.8 27.8 57.5 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience131031 Claims adjusters, examiners, and

investigators ......................... .............................. .......... 18.3 35.1 46.7 Long-term on-the-job training131072 Compensation, benefts, and job analysis

specialists ......................... .............................. ............... 14.1 30.4 55.5 Bachelors degree132031 Budget analysts .......................... .............................. ..... 4.2 17.8 78.1 Bachelors degree

132052 Personal fnancial advisors .............................. .......... 4.2 15.2 80.5 Bachelors degree132072 Loan ocers ............................ .............................. .......... 16.4 34.8 48.8 Bachelors degree151032 Computer sotware engineers, systems

sotware ............................ .............................. ............... 2.2 13.0 84.8 Bachelors degree

151081 Network systems and data communicationsanalysts ......................... .............................. .................... 8.1 34.8 57.1 Bachelors degree

172031 Biomedical engineers .............................. .................... 18.0 75.7 Bachelors degree172161 Nuclear engineers ........................... ............................. . 3.0 14.7 82.4 Bachelors degree173023 Electrical and electronic engineering

technicians ............................ .............................. .......... 27.2 54.4 18.4 Associates degree173024 Electromechanical technicians ........................... ..... 27.2 54.4 18.4 Associates degree173027 Mechanical engineering technicians ..................... 27.2 54.4 18.4 Associates degree192032 Materials scientists .............................. ......................... 6.5 93.2 Bachelors degree193021 Market research analysts ............................. ............... 4.4 13.5 82.2 Bachelors degree

193022 Survey researchers .......................... ............................. . 4.4 13.5 82.2 Bachelors degree

193094 Political scientists ............................ ............................. . 10.2 89.8 Masters degree232092 Law clerks ............................ .............................. ............... 22.5 39.3 38.1 Bachelors degree271012 Crat artists ......................... .............................. ............... 13.6 28.5 58.0 Long-term on-the-job training273042 Technical writers ......................... .............................. ..... 7.2 18.4 74.4 Bachelors degree273043 Writers and authors ............................. ......................... 3.5 12.4 84.1 Bachelors degree419031 Sales engineers ........................... .............................. ..... 16.4 78.9 Bachelors degree431011 First-line supervisors/managers o oce

and administrative support workers ................... 28.1 43.1 28.9 Work experience in a related occupation

434161 Human resources assistants, except payrolland timekeeping .......................... ............................. . 25.0 46.0 29.0 Short-term on-the-job training

435032 Dispatchers, except police, fre, andambulance ............................ .............................. .......... 44.0 45.1 10.9 Moderate-term on-the-job training

131071 Employment, recruitment, and placementspecialists ......................... .............................. ............... 14.1 30.4 55.5 Bachelors degree

132021 Appraisers and assessors o real estate ................. 17.0 39.2 43.8 Bachelors degree152041 Statisticians ............................. .............................. .......... 6.1 93.3 Masters degree

171011 Architects, except landscape and naval ................ 1.6 10.1 88.3 Bachelors degree171021 Cartographers and photogrammetrists ............... 17.8 81.6 Bachelors degree173021 Aerospace engineering and operations

technicians ............................ .............................. .......... 27.2 54.4 18.4 Associates degree

191041 Epidemiologists .......................... .............................. ..... 99.3 Masters degree191042 Medical scientists, except epidemiologists ......... 99.3 Doctoral degree251000 Postsecondary teachers .......................... .................... .2 5.2 94.6 Doctoral degree271013 Fine artists, including painters, sculptors,

and illustrators .......................... .............................. ..... 13.6 28.5 58.0 Long-term on-the-job training271021 Commercial and industrial designers .................... 13.9 31.4 54.6 Bachelors degree271022 Fashion designers ........................... ............................. . 13.9 31.4 54.6 Associates degree










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Services Oshoring


271024 Graphic designers ........................... ............................. . 13.9 31.4 54.6 Bachelors degree273041 Editors ............................. .............................. .................... 4.0 14.7 81.4 Bachelors degree

291031 Dietitians and nutritionists .............................. .......... 14.7 13.6 71.7 Bachelors degree414011 Sales representatives, wholesale and

manuacturing, technical and scientifcproducts ............................ .............................. ............... 20.6 28.0 51.4 Work experience in a related occupation

414012 Sales representatives, wholesale andmanuacturing, except technical andscientifc products ............................. ......................... 20.6 28.0 51.4 Work experience in a related occupation

434131 Loan interviewers and clerks .......................... .......... 31.6 44.9 23.5 Short-term on-the-job training435031 Police, fre, and ambulance dispatchers ............... 44.0 45.1 10.9 Moderate-term on-the-job training439111 Statistical assistants .............................. ......................... 23.7 46.5 29.8 Moderate-term on-the-job training

Lowest ranked occupations

113031 Financial managers .............................. ......................... 12.9 27.2 59.9 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience113042 Training and development managers .................... 14.8 27.8 57.5 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience131073 Training and development specialists .................. 14.1 30.4 55.5 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience131121 Meeting and convention planners ......................... 10.6 22.0 67.4 Bachelors degree132071 Loan counselors .......................... ............................. ...... 16.4 34.8 48.8 Bachelors degree172111 Health and saety engineers, except

mining saety engineers and inspectors ............ 7.6 18.5 73.9 Bachelors degree172151 Mining and geological engineers,

including mining saety engineers ...................... 17.6 79.6 Bachelors degree191012 Food scientists and technologists ........................... 17.7 82.0 Bachelors degree193041 Sociologists ............................. .............................. .......... 10.2 89.8 Masters degree193051 Urban and regional planners .......................... .......... 92.2 Masters degree273091 Interpreters and translators ............................. .......... 15.9 36.3 47.8 Long-term on-the-job training

411012 First-line supervisors/managers o nonretailsales workers ............................. .............................. ..... 30.8 30.9 38.3 Work experience in a related occupation

413031 Securities, commodities, and fnancialservices sales agents ............................. .................... 10.3 23.1 66.6 Bachelors degree

111011 Chie executives .......................... .............................. ..... 13.0 21.8 65.2 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience111021 General and operations managers ......................... 19.6 32.5 48.0 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience113011 Administrative services managers .......................... . 21.4 38.8 39.9 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience113021 Computer and inormation systems

managers ........................... .............................. ............... 4.6 23.0 72.5 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience131022 Wholesale and retail buyers, except

arm products ........................... .............................. ..... 27.8 36.2 36.0 Long-term on-the-job training151051 Computer systems analysts ............................. .......... 7.0 24.6 68.4 Bachelors degree171012 Landscape architects .......................... ......................... 1.6 10.1 88.3 Bachelors degree172112 Industrial engineers ............................ ......................... 7.6 18.5 73.9 Bachelors degree191011 Animal scientists ............................. ............................. . 17.7 82.0 Bachelors degree

413011 Advertising sales agents .............................. ............... 14.3 30.1 55.7 Moderate-term on-the-jobtraining112011 Advertising and promotions managers ................. 7.1 17.5 75.5 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience112021 Marketing managers............................ ......................... 9.2 22.1 68.7 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience112022 Sales managers ............................ .............................. ..... 9.2 22.1 68.7 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience112031 Public relations managers ........................... ............... 8.7 16.3 75.0 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience119041 Engineering managers ............................. .................... 4.4 11.9 83.7 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience119121 Natural science managers.......................................... . 92.8 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience131111 Management analysts ............................. .................... 6.6 15.9 77.5 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience172051 Civil engineers ............................. .............................. ..... 2.7 10.0 87.3 Bachelors degree271011 Art directors ............................ .............................. .......... 13.6 28.5 58.0 Bachelors or higher degree, plus work experience172081 Environmental engineers ............................ ............... 9.9 86.4 Bachelors degree

NOTE: Dash indicates value not signifcant.







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