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What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst

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Page 1: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017

Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst

Page 2: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

About SEPA

SEPA’s mission is to facilitate the utility industry’s smart transition to a clean energy future through education,

research, and collaboration.

www.sepapower.org

Page 3: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

Context of Changes & Challenges in Sector

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance

Page 4: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

DER Capabilities - 1

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance & Nexant, Beyond the Meter | Addressing the Locational Valuation Challenge for Distributed Energy Resources, 2016

https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000RNvYdAAL

Page 5: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

DER Capabilities - 2

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance, Beyond the Meter | Distributed Energy Resources Capabilities Guide, 2016

https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000SjefkAAB

Page 6: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

Electric Power Industry Capital Expenditures

Source: EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global Market Intelligence (August 2016).

108.6101.2

92.2

120.8

104.5

96.5

59.9

74.1

82.877.7

74.378.6

90.3 90.396.1

103.3

$30 B

$40 B

$50 B

$60 B

$70 B

$80 B

$90 B

$100 B

$110 B

$120 B

$130 B

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actuals

Projections (Sept. 2015)

Projections (Aug. 2016)

Page 7: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

Projected Functional CapEx

Source: EEI Finance Department, company reports , S&P Global Market Intelligence (August 2016).

Page 8: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance & Nexant, Beyond the Meter | Addressing the Locational Valuation Challenge for Distributed Energy Resources, 2016

https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000RNvYdAAL

Distribution Capacity Investments

Page 9: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance & Nexant, Beyond the Meter | Addressing the Locational Valuation Challenge for Distributed Energy Resources, 2016

https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000RNvYdAAL

Effect of DER on Expenditures - 1

Page 10: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance & Nexant, Beyond the Meter | Addressing the Locational Valuation Challenge for Distributed Energy Resources, 2016

https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000RNvYdAAL

Effect of DER on Expenditures - 2

Page 11: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance & Nexant, Beyond the Meter | Addressing the Locational Valuation Challenge for Distributed Energy Resources, 2016

https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000RNvYdAAL

Effect of DER on Expenditures - 3

Page 12: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

Local Peaks Vary

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance & Nexant, Beyond the Meter | Addressing the Locational Valuation Challenge for Distributed Energy Resources, 2016

https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000RNvYdAAL

Page 13: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

Local Areas by Peak Load Shape

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance & Nexant, Beyond the Meter | Addressing the Locational Valuation Challenge for Distributed Energy Resources, 2016

https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000RNvYdAAL

Page 14: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

Right DER, Right Location, Right Time

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance & Nexant, Beyond the Meter | Addressing the Locational Valuation Challenge for Distributed Energy Resources, 2016

https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000RNvYdAAL

Page 15: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

DER Constraints on Dispatch

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance & Nexant, Beyond the Meter | Addressing the Locational Valuation Challenge for Distributed Energy Resources, 2016

https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000RNvYdAAL

Page 16: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

Operating Constraints on Locational Value

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance & Nexant, Beyond the Meter | Addressing the Locational Valuation Challenge for Distributed Energy Resources, 2016

https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000RNvYdAAL

Page 17: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

DER Constraints

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance & Nexant, Beyond the Meter | Addressing the Locational Valuation Challenge for Distributed Energy Resources, 2016

https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000RNvYdAAL

Page 18: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

Criteria for Resource Flexibility

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance & Nexant, Beyond the Meter | Addressing the Locational Valuation Challenge for Distributed Energy Resources, 2016

https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000RNvYdAAL

Page 19: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

LCCF - 1

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance & Nexant, Beyond the Meter | Addressing the Locational Valuation Challenge for Distributed Energy Resources, 2016

https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000RNvYdAAL

Page 20: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

LCCF - 2

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance & Nexant, Beyond the Meter | Addressing the Locational Valuation Challenge for Distributed Energy Resources, 2016

https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000RNvYdAAL

Page 21: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

SCE Using DER to offset 300 MW of Peak Load

Source: Smart Electric Power Alliance, Beyond the Meter | The Potential for a New Customer-Grid Dynamic, 2016

https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000QuxopAAB

Page 22: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

Cost Tests Summary

Name Perspective Description

Total Resource Cost

(TRC)

Utility + Participant Combines the costs and benefits of the

program administrator (usually the utility)

and the participants

Program Administrator

Cost (PAC)

Utility Includes costs and benefits experienced

by the program administrator (usually

the utility)

Ratepayer Impact

Measure (RIM)

Impact on rates Includes all PAC costs and benefits, plus

changes in revenues

Participant Test (PCT) Participant Includes costs and benefits experienced

by the participants

Societal Cost Test (SCT) Society Includes all TRC costs and benefits, plus

several environmental benefits and a

lower discount rate

Source: CA Standard Practice Manual & Navigant

Page 23: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

CA: Myriad of tests for DERs

www.sepapower.org Source: CA PUC

Page 24: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

CA: Myriad of tests for DERs

www.sepapower.org Source: CA PUC

Page 25: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

New York’s BCA

Source: SEPA & ScottMadden

Page 26: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

CA’s LNBA

Source: SEPA & ScottMadden

Page 27: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

A Continuum of Approaches

Page 28: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

www.sepapower.org

Key Publications

Beyond the Meter: Addressing the Locational Valuation Challenge for Distributed Energy Resources

URL: https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000RNvYdAAL

Beyond The Meter: The Potential for a New Customer-Grid Dynamic

URL: https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000QuxopAAB

Distributed Energy Resources Capabilities Guide

URL: https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000SjefkAAB

51st State Perspectives | Distributed Energy Resources Integration: Policy, Technical, and Regulatory Perspectives from New York and California

URL: https://sepa.force.com/CPBase__item?id=a12o000000Vd348AAB

Page 29: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global

Vazken Kassakhian

Research Analyst

[email protected]

Smart Electric Power Alliance

1220 19th St NW, Suite 800

Washington, DC 20036

Contact Me

Page 30: What are Distributed Energy Resources Worth? · USEA Briefing, February 22, 2017 Vazken Kassakhian, SEPA Research Analyst . ... EEI Finance Department, company reports, S&P Global