what a year it was - and where we need to go in emerging ... a year it was... · what a year it was...

What a Year It Was -and Where We Need To Go

in Emerging Memory

Live Webcast 14 January 2020, 11:00 am PT/ 2:00 pm ET

Today’s Presenters

2© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association

CoughlinCoughlinData Storage Consulting

AssociatesAssociates

Moderator:Alex McDonald, Co-Chair

Presenter: Tom Coughlin, President

Presenter:Jim Handy, General Director

3

Technologies We Cover:

Solid State Storage Persistent Memory Computational Storage

Join Us in January and February 2020 for these exciting events:

January 23, 20208:30 am – 6:30 pm

Hyatt Regency Santa Clara

Keynote by Andy Bechtolsheim of Arista NetworksComplimentary registration

January 22, 20201:00 pm – 5:00 pmSanta Clara, CA

Complimentaryregistration

February 4, 2020 9:30 am – 5:00 pm

Tel Aviv, IsraelAs part of

www.snia.org/pmhackathon

www.snia.org/pm-summit

https://www.snia.org/events/sdcemeahttp://www.snia.org/pmhackathonhttp://www.snia.org/pm-summit

SNIA Legal Notice

The material contained in this presentation is copyrighted by the SNIA unless otherwise noted. Member companies and individual members may use this material in presentations and literature under the following conditions:

Any slide or slides used must be reproduced in their entirety without modificationThe SNIA must be acknowledged as the source of any material used in the body of any document containing material from these presentations.

This presentation is a project of the SNIA.Neither the author nor the presenter is an attorney and nothing in this presentation is intended to be, or should be construed as legal advice or an opinion of counsel. If you need legal advice or a legal opinion please contact your attorney.The information presented herein represents the author's personal opinion and current understanding of the relevant issues involved. The author, the presenter, and the SNIA do not assume any responsibility or liability for damages arising out of any reliance on or use of this information.

NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED. USE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

© 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association4

Many Emerging Memory Types

MRAM

ReRAM FRAM

PCM


AND THEY’RE ALL IN OUREMERGING MEMORIES REPORT

They’re All Persistent!


Agenda

SNIA Support Moves AheadOptane DIMMs ArriveNew MRAM types EmergeBusiness Conditions in FluxMore Work is Needed


PM Needs Support

Hardware (JEDEC, Others)Supporting early developmentOngoing requirementsForm factors, interfaces

Software support (SNIA, Others)O/S supportApplication program support

© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association8

Hardware: Early Development

Early groundwork has been helpfulNVDIMM-N

DRAM with flash backupDeeply investigated in Objective Analysis NVDIMM Report

BIOS changesHow/when to boot without reloading memory?

New power fail signal brought to DIMM3D XPoint Memory/Optane is driving HW changesCadence now supports DDR4 MRAM for ASICs & FPGAs


Ongoing Hardware Requirements

Nonuniform Memory Architecture: “NUMA”MMU redesignFaster CPU context switches needed

Use polling for nowUpdated DDR4 bus

Intel has developed proprietary DDR-T“Transactional”

Support for non-deterministic access times


Software: Operating System Support

SNIA’s Persistent Memory Programming Modelhttps://www.SNIA.org/PM


https://www.snia.org/PM

SNIA’s Persistent Memory Progress

2019PM Programing Hackathon and Workshops launchedWork on PM software interface specifications

Developed PMDK

Persistent Memory SummitWhite papers

FutureDefine Remote PM Programming Model (i.e. RDMA)Updates to current PM Programming Model


Application Program Support

PM is useless if its advantage is untappedPersistence is unknown in most software

This change will take some timeClosed systems can use it now

Hyperscale Data Centers, SANs

Open systems will evolve


Agenda



3D XPoint Must Be Priced Below DRAMOtherwise People will Just Buy DRAM

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

1.E+04

1.E+05

1.E+06

1.E+07

1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06

Ban

dwid

th (M

B/s

)

Price per Gigabyte

Tape

HDD

SSD

DRAM

L3

L2

L1

101

100

102

103

104

105

106

107

101 102 103 104 105 10610010-1

3DXPoint


Optane Status

Optane DIMMs are a key selling point for next-generation server “Cascade Lake” CPUs

Big performance benefit from Optane + CPU enhancementsOptane SSDs gaining modest acceptance

NAND makers countering with fast SLC SSDsCovered in depth by Objective Analysis XPoint report

Details at end of slideshow


Agenda



Existing MRAM Types: Toggle & STT

Magnets aligned =Low resistance: “0”

“Free”magnetic layer

“Fixed” magnetic layer

Tunnel barrierS

S N

N

“Reset”

Magnets unaligned = High resistance. “1”

N

S N

S

“Set”Parallel

MagneticPolarization

Anti-ParallelMagnetic

Polarization

Free LayerTunnel Barrier

Reference Layer

Low Resistance

or “0”

High Resistance

or “1”

Spin Transfer Torque(STT)

Toggle Mode


New: Spin-Orbit Torque MRAM (SOT)

Higher reliability in-plane currentFaster than STT – As fast as SRAM

“Free”layer

“Fixed”layer


MRAM Status

MRAM cache is in certain new IBM SSDs as well as some RAID controllersSpin Memory introductions:

Precessional Spin CurrentEndurance Engine Technologies

Everspin still sole supplier of stand-alone MRAMsOver 123 million units shippedAvalanche is sampling

Today’s markets: Space, high-uptime systems, caches and buffers


Embedded MRAM on SoCs

21

Support from all major semiconductor foundries for embedded MRAM: Samsung Intel TSMC GLOBALFOUNDRIES UMC

This will increase the volume to lower costs New tools are needed for MRAM, driving capital

equipment spending© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association

MRAM Capital Spending Up

22

MRAM Production Equipment Spending, 2018-2029

2019 Emerging Memories Ramp Up, Coughlin Associates and Objective Analysis, 2019

>$800 Million!

© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association

Agenda



Who Wants Persistent Memory?1) If it Costs MORE than DRAM

That’s NVDIMMs!Early adopters:

High-availability systemsFinancial databasesSome hyperscale applications

MRAM DIMMs are also interesting (faster but more expensive) 0

5

10

15

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Uni

t Shi

pmen

ts (M

illio

ns)

NVDIMM-P (Mu)

NVDIMM-N (Mu)


New Memory Prices Will Move Past Established Technologies

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Pric

e pe

r Gig

abyt

e

EEPROM

SRAMNOR

DRAM

NAND10-410-310-210-1100101102103104105106

Source: Objective Analysis, 2018


Chart1

201020102010201020102010

201120112011201120112011

201220122012201220122012

201320132013201320132013

201420142014201420142014

201520152015201520152015

201620162016201620162016

201720172017201720172017

201820182018201820182018

201920192019201920192019

202020202020202020202020

202120212021202120212021

202220222022202220222022

202320232023202320232023

202420242024202420242024

202520252025202520252025

202620262026202620262026

202720272027202720272027

202820282028202820282028

202920292029202920292029

203020302030203020302030

EEPROM

SRAM

DRAM

NOR Flash

NAND Flash

Emerging Memory

Price per Gigabyte

419430.4

500

10.961001051

132.9478761433

1.2313206

83886.08

419430.4

500

7.677971277

111.9663549563

0.8484325004

33158.8845978872

419430.4

500

5.3819413563

93.7128518662

0.5918163749

13107.2

419430.4

500

3.7694939554

80.6725556334

0.4081764064

5181.0757184199

419430.4

500

2.6263632586

66.9345774571

0.2809747875

2048

419430.4

500

1.8298965452

56.8943908385

0.1934135094

809.5430810031

419430.4

500

1.2749650511

51.2049517547

0.1331392968

320

419430.4

500

0.8883211927

48.6447041669

0.0916485741

160

419430.4

500

0.6189303312

48.6447041669

0.0630877685

70.6129706618

419430.4

500

0.4312345107

48.6447041669

0.0434274791

31.1636976605

419430.4

500

0.300459024

48.6447041669

0.029894003

13.7535079288

419430.4

500

0.2093423018

48.6447041669

0.0205780173

6.0698503242

419430.4

500

0.1458574908

48.6447041669

0.0141652088

2.6788135179

419430.4

500

0.1016249819

48.6447041669

0.0097508491

1.1822436272

419430.4

500

0.1016249819

48.6447041669

0.0067121536

0.521760841

419430.4

500

0.1016249819

48.6447041669

0.0046204188

0.2302692685

419430.4

500

0.1016249819

48.6447041669

0.0031805395

0.1016249819

419430.4

500

0.1016249819

48.6447041669

0.0021893755

0.0708063527

419430.4

500

0.1016249819

48.6447041669

0.0015070918

0.0493337316

419430.4

500

0.1016249819

48.6447041669

0.0010374308

0.0343728632

419430.4

500

0.1016249819

48.6447041669

0.0007141322

0.0239490038

Sheet1

Column1201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

EEPROM$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000$419,430.40000

SRAM$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000$500.00000

DRAM$10.96100$7.67797$5.38194$3.76949$2.62636$1.82990$1.27497$0.88832$0.61893$0.43123$0.30046$0.20934$0.14586$0.10162$0.10162$0.10162$0.10162$0.10162$0.10162$0.10162$0.10162

NOR Flash$132.94788$111.96635$93.71285$80.67256$66.93458$56.89$51.20495$48.64$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470$48.64470

NAND Flash$1.23132$0.84843$0.59182$0.40818$0.28097$0.19341$0.13314$0.09165$0.06309$0.04343$0.02989$0.02058$0.01417$0.00975$0.00671$0.00462$0.00318$0.00219$0.00151$0.00104$0.00071

Emerging Memory$83,886.08000$33,158.88460$13,107.20000$5,181.07572$2,048.00000$809.54$320.00000$160.00000$70.61297$31.16370$13.75351$6.06985$2.67881$1.18224$0.52176$0.23027$0.10162$0.07081$0.04933$0.03437$0.02395

Who Wants Persistent Memory?2) If it Costs LESS than DRAM

That’s 3D XPoint!Everybody will want it!It improves cost/performance

Persistence is of secondary importance

This will drive its successPersistent apps come later

0X

2X

4X

6X

8X

10X

12X

14X

16X

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013R

atio

of D

RA

M to

NA

ND

Pric

e pe

r GB


Meanwhile, DRAM Prices Collapse

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

Jan-

18

Apr

-18

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Jan-

19

Apr

-19

Jul-1

9

Oct

-19

Jan-

20

Pric

e/G

B -55%


Commodity Price Cycle at Work!

ShortagePrices

Stabilize

OversupplyPrices

Collapse

ManufacturersOver Invest

ManufacturersUnder Invest


How Does This Impact PM?

Persistent memory competes against established technologies

E.g. 3D XPoint must be cheaper than DRAMMRAM takes up less space on die than SRAM

A DRAM collapse undermines XPoint pricingEven though XPoint is sole-sourced!


Big XPoint/Optane Losses For Intel

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

3Q17

4Q17

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

1Q19

2Q19

3Q19

Net

Pro

fit

IntelSamsungMicronSK hynixToshibaWDC


New Memory Shipment Growth

MRAM

3DXPoint

Over $37Bby 2029!

Memory Petabyte Shipments 2018-2029

2019 Emerging Memories Ramp Up, Coughlin Associates & Objective Analysis, 2019


Agenda



Taking PM to the Max

Application support for PMAdditional open-source libraries to support PM (PMDK)PM hardware support outside of IntelDrive cost reductions by ramping production volumeStandardize Remote PM protocolBuy our reports!


QUESTIONS?

Jim Handy(408) 356-2549Jim.Handy(at)Objective-Analysis.com

Tom Coughlin(408) 202-5098Tom(at)tomcoughlin.com

CoughlinCoughlinData Storage Consulting

AssociatesAssociates

34

Emerging Memory Report

Coughlin Associates/Objective AnalysisExamines Emerging Memory Ecosystem

Technologies (PCM, ReRAM, MRAM, FRAM…)CompaniesMarketsSupport requirements

Forecasts Emerging Memory consumptionEmbedded Emerging MemoriesDiscrete Emerging Memories

172 pages, 30 tables, 125 figureshttp://www.tomcoughlin.com/techpapers.htm

https://Objective-Analysis.com/reports/#Emerging© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association

35

http://www.tomcoughlin.com/techpapers.htmhttps://objective-analysis.com/reports/#Emerging

Thanks for Watching Our Webcast

And check out these additional resource links:SNIA Persistent Memory Summit videos and presentation slidesSNIA Educational Library resources on Persistent MemorySNIA SSSI blogSNIA Persistent Memory activities

NVM Programming Technical Work GroupSNIA Persistent Memory and NVDIMM Special Interest GroupSNIA Persistent Memory Programming Tutorial and Hackathon Program


http://www.snia.org/pm-summithttps://www.snia.org/educational-library?search=persistent+memory&field_edu_content_type_tid=All&field_assoc_event_name_tid=All&field_release_date_value_2%5Bvalue%5D%5Byear%5D=&field_focus_areas_tid=All&field_author_tid=&field_author_company_value=&field_release_date_value=All&items_per_page=20http://sniasssiblog.org/https://www.snia.org/forums/sssi/persistent-memoryhttps://www.snia.org/forums/sssi/nvmphttps://www.snia.org/forums/sssi/NVDIMMhttps://www.snia.org/pm-summit/hackathon

Additional Materials

Technical and Market AnalysisConsultingEventsReports and Newsletter

Emerging Memories Ramp Up: Emerging Memory ReportDigital Storage in Media and Entertainment ReportDigital Storage Technology Newsletter

Tom Coughlin President

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS

ProfoundAnalysts

CustomConsulting

Reports &Services

OBJECTIVE ANALYSISSemiconductor Forecast Accuracy

Year Forecast Actual2008 Zero growth at best. -3%2009 Growth in the mid teens -9%2010 Should approach 30% 32%2011 Muted revenue growth: 5% 0%2012 Revenues drop as much as -5% -2.7%2013 Revenues increase nearly 10% 4.9%2014 Revenues up 20%+ 9.9%2015 Revenues up ~10% -0.2%2016 Revenues up ~10% 1.1%2017 Revenues up ~20% 22%2018 Strong start supports 10+% growth 14%2019 Semiconductors down -5% TBD

http://vstream1.vlsiresearch.com/public/cmm_forecast_071218/cmm_forecast_jh_071218_index.htmhttps://www.wesrch.com/video/jim_handy.phphttp://www.wesrch.com/video/jim_handy3.phphttp://www.wesrch.com/video/jim_handy_2010.phphttp://electronics.wesrch.com/wequest-EL1JYMD-wevision-dram-and-flash-memory-market-to-take-another-hit-in-2012-an-interview-with-jim-handy-videohttp://business.wesrch.com/wequest-BU1OIST-dram-and-flash-memory-market-to-turn-up-in-2013-with-jim-handyhttp://electronics.wesrch.com/wequest-EL12529-dram-and-flash-memory-market-2014-with-jim-handyhttp://electronics.wesrch.com/wequest-EL18R5M-dram-and-flash-memory-market-2015-with-jim-handyhttp://www.wesrch.com/electronics/wequest-EL1YKKA-dram-and-flash-memory-market-2016-trendshttps://www.wesrch.com/electronics/wequest-EL17CKN-dram-and-flash-memory-market-2017-with-jim-handyhttps://www.wesrch.com/electronics/wevision-EL1DP3X-memory-market-forecast-2018-with-jim-handyhttps://www.wesrch.com/electronics/wevision-EL1J9YM-memory-market-forecast-2019-with-jim-handy-of-objective-analysis

NVDIMM Report

Objective AnalysisExplains the NVDIMM markets

NVDIMM-NNVDIMM-P

Vendor profilesSupport requirementsMarket forecast

https://Objective-Analysis.com/reports/#NVDIMM© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association

https://objective-analysis.com/reports/#NVDIMM

3D XPoint Report

2019 Update from Objective AnalysisThe Why, How, and When of 3D XPoint Memory

Why Intel wants itHow it fits into the memory hierarchy

Impact on DRAM

When will it sell in volumeDetailed Forecasts

https://Objective-Analysis.com/reports/#XPoint© 2020 Objective Analysis and Coughlin Associates © 2020 Storage Networking Industry Association

https://objective-analysis.com/reports/#XPoint

What a Year It Was - �and Where We Need To Go �in Emerging MemoryToday’s PresentersSlide Number 3SNIA Legal NoticeMany Emerging Memory TypesAnd they’re all in our�Emerging Memories ReportAgendaPM Needs SupportHardware: Early DevelopmentOngoing Hardware RequirementsSoftware: Operating System SupportSNIA’s Persistent Memory ProgressApplication Program SupportAgenda3D XPoint Must Be Priced Below DRAM�Otherwise People will Just Buy DRAMOptane StatusAgendaExisting MRAM Types: Toggle & STTNew: Spin-Orbit Torque MRAM (SOT)MRAM StatusEmbedded MRAM on SoCsMRAM Capital Spending UpAgendaWho Wants Persistent Memory?�1) If it Costs MORE than DRAMNew Memory Prices Will Move Past Established TechnologiesWho Wants Persistent Memory?�2) If it Costs LESS than DRAMMeanwhile, DRAM Prices CollapseCommodity Price Cycle at Work!How Does This Impact PM?Big XPoint/Optane Losses For IntelNew Memory Shipment GrowthAgendaTaking PM to the MaxQUESTIONS?Emerging Memory ReportThanks for Watching Our WebcastAdditional MaterialsSlide Number 38OBJECTIVE ANALYSISObjective Analysis�Semiconductor Forecast AccuracyNVDIMM Report3D XPoint Report

what a year it was - and where we need to go in emerging ... a year it was... · what a year it was...

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