wg 2 meeting - june 24, 2005, brno. household car ownership in different countries: a cohort...

WG 2 meeting - June 24, 2005, Brno.

Household Car Ownership

in Different Countries:A Cohort Analysis

Akli BerriINRETS-DEST

• Car ownership behaviour in countries (France,

Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, UK, USA

and Japan) with different economic and cultural contexts

histories as to the development of car ownership (e.g.,

USA vs. Western Europe)

economic development levels and market conditions

(e.g., Poland vs. remaining countries)

• A basis for long term projections of car fleets

(accounting for changes in behaviour and in

population level and age structure)

Projected pattern of the age structure of the Dutch household population:

1995-2020

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

9

90-9

4

95+

19952000

20052010

201520200,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

Pro

po

rtio

n (

%)

Age du chef de ménage

Car ownership patterns by birth cohort - France(1980, 1985, 1990 & 1995)

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84


Nom

bre

de v

oitu

res

par a

dulte

1901-05

Observations en 1985

1911-15

1921-251931-35

1941-451951-55

1961-65

1966-70

Sources : Household Conjuncture Surveys (Insee) and, for 1995, Parc-Auto Panel (Sofrès).

An Age-Cohort-Period model (1)

• Three linked dimensions of time: age as an indicator of the stage in life cycle (change in

needs and ability with age, family size and composition,

working members, etc)

cohort (based on birth year), with a common life

experience, to account for differentiated access to the car

(social diffusion, driving licence, etc)

time period reflecting the impact of the current socio-

economic context (incomes, prices, supply, etc)

An Age-Cohort-Period model (2)

• The model:

“reference generation”: 1936-40

c t a= -

( ) ( ) ( ), ,c t a c t c ta c t

M A a C c P ta a b e= + + +å å å

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ), ,ln lnc t a c r c p c ta c

M A a C c REV t PRIX ta a b b e= + + + +å å

0cca =å

Household level or pre-aggregated data

• National Household surveys France: 1977-94 (Conjuncture Surveys )

Germany: 1983, 1988, 1993

Italy: 1985-94, 1996

Netherlands: 1985, 1990, 1995

Poland: 1987-90, 1992, 1994-96

Japan: 1979, 1984, 1989, 1994

UK: 1977-94

USA: 1980-81, 1984-85, 1987-89

• Pseudo-panels: cohorts defined by birth period of

household head

Car ownership by birth cohort - USA(1980, 1984 & 1989)

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2

<=19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 >=80

Tranche d'âge du chef de ménage

Voitu

res

par m

énag

es

<= 1910 1911-15 1916-20

1921-25 1926-30 1931-35

1936-40 1941-45 1946-50

1951-55 1956-60 1961-65

1966-70 En 1984

Car ownership by birth cohort - Japan(1979, 1984, 1989 & 1994)

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

<=19

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9


Voit

ures

par

mén

age

1906-10

1911-15

1916-20

1921-25

1926-30

1931-35

1936-40

1941-45

1946-50

1951-55

1956-60

1961-65

1966-70

1971-75

Car ownership by birth cohort - Netherlands (1985, 1990 & 1995)

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,220

-24

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

5

75-7

9


Voitu

res

par m

énag

e

1911-15

1916-20

1921-25

1926-30

1931-35

1936-40

1941-45

1946-50

1951-55

1956-60

1961-65

1966-70

Car ownership by birth cohort - Poland (1987, 1992 & 1997)

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

17-21 22-26 27-31 32-36 37-41 42-46 47-51 52-56 57-61 62-66 67-71 72-76 77-81


Voi

ture

s pa

r m

énag

e

1911-15

1916-20

1921-25

1926-30

1931-35

1936-40

1941-45

1946-50

1951-55

1956-60

1961-65

1966-70

Number of cars per household along the life cycle:

Generation 1936-40

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+Age du chef de ménage

Vo

itu

res

par

mén

age

France

Japon

Roy. Uni

USA

Pays-Bas

Pologne

Italie

Generation gaps: cars per household at age 35-39

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

Avant1910

1911-15

1916-20

1921-25

1926-30

1931-35

1936-40

1941-45

1946-50

1951-55

1956-60

1961-65

1966-70

Génération du chef de ménage

Vo

itu

res

par

mén

age

France

Japon

Roy. Uni

USA

Pologne

Pays-Bas

Italie

Effects of economic variables – Cars per householdElasticities in last observation period: 1996 for Italy and Poland, 1994 for France, Japan and UK, 1989 for USA

Income Purchase price Adj. R2 Coeff. Std.

error Elasticity Coeff. Std.

error Elasticity

France 0,948 0,462 0,055 0,42 [0,32 ; 0,52] -0,185 0,046 -0,17 [-0,25 ; -0,09]

Italy 0,976 0,464 0,076 0,42 [0,28 ; 0,55] -0,552 0,073 -0,50 [-0,62 ; -0,37]

Poland 0,916 0,795 0,125 0,46 [0,21 ; 0,70] -0,346 0,028 -0,20 [-0,25 ; -0,14]

UK 0,934 0,562 0,075 0,58 [0,43 ; 0,73] -0,125 0,054 -0,13 [-0,24 ; -0,02]

J apan 0,979 0,280 0,104 0,26 [0,07 ; 0,45]

USA 0,826 0,187 0,194 0,15 [<= 0,53] (**) (**) Estimate with a wrong

sign.

Number of cars per household along the life cycle:Generation 1936-40 – Italian regions

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+


Voitu

res

par m

énag

e

Nord & Centre

Sud & Iles

Generation gaps: cars per household at age 35-39Italian regions

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

Avant1910

1911-15

1916-20

1921-25

1926-30

1931-35

1936-40

1941-45

1946-50

1951-55

1956-60

1961-65

1966-70

Génération du chef de ménage

Vo

itu

res

par

mén

age

Nord & Centre

Sud & Iles

Effects of economic variables – Cars per householdItalian regions

Income Purchase price Adj. R2 Coeff. Std.

error Elasticity Coeff. Std.

error Elasticity

North-Centre 0,967 0,328 0,077 0,28 [0,15 ; 0,41] -0,610 0,086 -0,52 [-0,66 ; -0,37]

South-Islands 0,961 0,508 0,133 0,52 [0,25 ; 0,79] -0,501 0,106 -0,51 [-0,73 ; -0,30]

Conclusions

Differences between countries and regions may be explained by three main factors: history of car ownership development: The US, where

car diffusion started earlier than in the other countries (before World War II), is closer to saturation than the other countries: narrower generation gaps and weaker sensitivity to economic factors

level of economic development: Poland has the lowest car ownership levels, but these continue to grow and the differences between cohorts are not stabilizing. The effect of economic development is also evidenced in the case of Italian regions

population density: Japan and the Netherlands record lower car ownership levels than the other industrialized countries

wg 2 meeting - june 24, 2005, brno. household car ownership in different countries: a cohort...

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