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WFS Arizona ChapterMarch 2016 MeetingMarch 22, 2016

GBN 2X2 Scenario ExerciseFuture of American Politics, March 22, 2016

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The Project

During our February meeting meeting, the Arizona chapter of the World Future Society discussed taking on a think tank–like project and, as a group, tackling a future challenge. So for our March meeting, Rob Panacci and Eric Kingsbury led a scenario development process based on the classic 2X2 Scenario approach from the Global Business Network (GBN). In this approach, basically, one looks at trends and drivers, and then one maps on two axes the key driving trends. At the corner intersections of opposite axes, one builds the scenarios.

For our two-hour exercise, we tackled something rather topical — "Politics in America." After a quick introduction to the 2X2 concept, we briefly considered the collection of signals and developing trends together, and then we split into two groups, Groups A and B, to discuss specifics further and work out our proposed future scenarios.

At the outset, we suggested some potential drivers, but teams were free to come up with their own, and they did. In just two hours, the two teams came up with two very intriguing, but, we all agreed, complementary set of scenarios.

The next two slides illustrate the two sets of scenarios. Team A’s scenarios were built around Public Service Governance vs. Private Service Governance, on one axis, and Isolationist vs. Globalist on the other. Team B built around Elite-Dominated vs. Populist on one axis and Public Engagement vs. Disengagement on the other.

Team A provided, among other insights, the idea that you can hear in some of the current and past election rhetoric appeals to isolationist scenarios, which rarely play out in practice. Team B noted that the future is likely to go through a cycle of three of their scenarios as the public reacts to various political realities, but the preferred scenario is unlikely to occur.

GBN 2X2 Scenario ExerciseFuture of American Politics, March 22, 2016

Isolationist Globalist

Private Service Government

Public Service Government

Great America (Pre-WWII) UN on Steroids

MNC World DominanceGated Community

• A great deal of participation in global activities• Seeking to better the world and participate in

climate and development initiatives• Open borders and emphasis on cultural exchange• Peace Corps kind of government• Active foreign policy focused on improvements.• Focus on social responsibility and solving

problems.

• Government that serves people• Patriotic and potentially racist and nationalist• Walls keep out immigrants• Great sense of community and public service• No interest in foreign policy; fortress mentality

• Government seeks world dominance; involved in a lot of special interest activities

• Government networks with elites around the globe

• Corruption and unethical behavior• Seek to manipulate the world for benefits of

the elite of the country.• County of great inequality

• A lot of rules and regulations and monitoring• Walls keep out immigrants• The wealthy and socially connected dominate

government• Social divides• Government represents special interest only• No interest in foreign policy; fortress mentality

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Team A | Outcome

GBN 2X2 Scenario ExerciseFuture of American Politics, March 22, 2016

Elite-Dominated Populist

PublicDisengagement

PublicEngagement

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Best and Brightest Neo-Jeffersonians

IdiocracyRunning Man

Disruptive Potential of AI and Post-Scarcity Economics

Clinton

• Seriousness of political coverage

• Commitment to governance

• Non-partisan districts

Trump

GBN 2X2 Scenario ExerciseFuture of American Politics, March 22, 2016

[Stable] [Disruptive]

• Radical outsiders• Non-politicians leading• Discontinuous• High turnover

• Lawyers and bureaucocrats• Decades of experience• Strong continuity• Domination by

political class• Self-interest, special

interests• Autocratic, quasi-fascistic

• Leadership by committed public servants

• Technocrats• Aristocratic• Stable, continuous• Status quo• Country club

The Cycle — There may be in the future (or may already be developing now) a cyclical progression from Best and Brightest to Running Man to Idiocracy, as the public reacts to various political and leadership realities.

Power Corrupts

DemagogueTakes Over

Getting Things Done

Matters

Preferred but Less Likely — There may be in the future a Neo-Jeffersonian scenario where the public becomes the informed and engaged farmer-citizens that would create a different kind of democracy; technology could help facilitate this alternative future.

Team B | Outcome

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