western wind transmission ronald l. lehr awea western representative 4950 sanford circle west...
TRANSCRIPT
Western Wind Transmission
Ronald L. Lehr
AWEA Western Representative
4950 Sanford Circle West
Englewood, CO 80110
303 504 0940
Wind Situation
• New generation 90% + natural gas
• Gas prices high, volatile
• Coal environmental risks, timing
• Public, policy support for wind
• Wind costs continue to decline
• Wind PPAs offer firm prices
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
1980 1984 1988 1991 1995 2000 2005
38 cents/kWh
Reduced Cost Driving Wind’s Success
2.5-3.5 cents/kWh
Levelized cost at excellent wind sites in nominal dollars, not including tax credit
Transmission for Wind
• Build case for needed transmission investments• Transmission Planning: study and report• Consider all transmission alternatives• 1. Use existing transmission
• SSG-WI constraint data shows physical capacity available
• 2. Upgrade existing transmission routes• 3. Plan new transmission routes
Wind Development Issues: Grid Operating Rules
What wind wants: appropriate access to grid operationsLiquid, transparent spot imbalance settlement markets Near real time, flexible scheduling protocols.Robust secondary markets in transmission rights (“flexible firm”).Postage stamp pricing paid by load (or volume pricing).Statistical determination of load shape conformance
What wind gets: rules deny merchant wind access to interstate commerceSystem designed exclusively for firm, fixed blocks and
commodity strips.Rigid scheduling protocols, onerous imbalance charges.License plate pricing paid by new generation.Grid balkanization and rate pancaking.
Mature path to market is a long way away. Some policy acceleration will be required.
Wind Development Issues: Transmission Expansion
What wind wants: transmission that includes windPro-active regional planning with political buy-in.Programmatic expansion focused on shared goals.Public infrastructure financing repaid through user fees.
What wind gets: too little, too lateReactive, piecemeal gridlock decoupled from political process.Project specific expansion focused on immediate needs of
existing players.Uncertain capacity rights as sole rate recovery mechanism.
Mature politically anchored regional planning process is a long ways away. Some policy acceleration will be required.
Wind Regulatory Agenda
• Accelerate RTO formation.– Larger control areas and markets.– No pan caking transmission fees.– Governance process to hear and resolve complaints.– Coordinated transmission planning and expansion.
• Action from FERC to adopt best practices.– Legislative direction.– Key off best tariff filings, RTO policies.
• Broaden trader and marketer participation
Interior West Clean Energy Plan
John Nielsen
Western Resource Advocates
Ronald L. Lehr
AWEA
Study Objectives• Aggressive but feasible long-term clean electric
energy plan for the Interior West • Identify the public policies and business strategies
needed to implement the plan • Engage energy decision makers across the region
on adopting these policies and strategies• Relative to BAU, Clean Plan will include:
– Significantly increased reliance on RE & EE– Retires older, less efficient fossil resources now on the
system
Who’s Involved• Funding--Hewlett Foundation, DOE on transmission issues
• Project Team: WRA, Synapse Energy Economics, Tellus Institute, Ron Lehr (NWCC, AWEA), grnNRG
• Advisory Committee
– utility industry, independent power producers, renewable developers, PUC regulators, state energy office officials, environmental and clean energy advocates, DOE, NREL
Relationship of IWCEP to Other Regional Transmission Planning Activities
WRAP AP2•Robust RE/EE Scenario•Limited Transmission Modeling
WGA Conceptual Plan•Load Flow Transmission Modeling•Limited RE/EE Scenario
IWCEP•Robust RE/EE Scenario•More Detailed Transmission Modeling
SSG-WI•Load Flow Transmission Modeling•Robust RE Scenario•Load Growth Sensitivities to Serve as EE proxy
Geographic Detail
• Modeling trans areas• Inputs developed at trans
area level • Results presented at the
state and regional level • Results available at trans
area level
Renewable Resource Assessment• Compiles best wind, solar,
geothermal, biomass resource data
• GIS identifies:
• Best resource areas• Inappropriate
development areas• Location of facilitating
infrastructure like existing transmission lines and substations
www.energyatlas.org
Renewable Capacity by Type & Location
Clean Plan: 2020
CapacityMW
1,000
BiomassSolarGeothermalWind
State WindGeo-
thermal SolarBio-
massState Total
Arizona 660 430 1,800 40 2,930Colorado 1,990 0 210 350 2,550Montana 1,040 0 30 400 1,470New Mexico 1,550 200 490 100 2,340Nevada 1,080 1,110 800 10 3,000Utah 960 450 120 70 1,600Wyoming 1,590 0 10 50 1,650Resource Total 8,870 2,190 3,460 1,020 15,540
Capacity (MW)
1% 1%
13%
70%
9%
6%
309 TWh
1%
20%
48%
17%
8%
6%
Generation MixSeven Interior Western States
Coal
Nat. Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables
Other
2001
2% <1%
62%
24%
7%5%
Clean Plan 2020
BAU 2020
423 TWh 330 TWh
Transmission Additions by 2020 Business-as-Usual vs. Clean Plan
Clean Plan = 2,800 MWBAU = 10,000 MW
Conclusions
• Build the case for needed investment• Study and report• Consider transmission alternatives• 1. Use existing transmission
• SSG-WI constraint data shows physical capacity available
• 2. Upgrade existing transmission routes• 3. Plan new transmission routes• Present business, policy case to decision makers
Contact Information
John NielsenEnergy Project DirectorWestern Resource Advocates303-444-1188 [email protected]