western research application center (wesrac) managers’ forum bio: nano: info the exponential...

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Managers’ Forum

Bio: Nano: Info The Exponential Economy

Ken DozierExecutive Director, WESRAC

3/26/2008


The Western Research Application Center

http://ttc.usc.edu/learningcenter/presentations.asp


Jack Welch, Former Chairmen General Electric

The Future

“When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight”

Source: John F. Welch, Jr. Chairman / CEO General Electric’s 2000 Annual Report


Source: Lon Hatamiya, Secretary - California Trade and Commerce Agency, South Bay Economic Development Partnership, “South Bay of Los Angeles County Workforce Perspective", October 2001

Velocity

“ According to Silicon Valley CEO’s, 60 % of the high-tech items they manufacture today did not exist 10 months ago”


Truth Knowledge Belief

Universal

No Debate

Phenomena

Social

Converge on debate

Theory

Personal

Diverge on debate

Guess

Source: “Ten Philosophical Mistakes”, Mortimer J. Adler 1985

What is Knowledge ?

Observation Explicit Tacit


Can You Find the Billionaires ?


DevelopersDrivers

Gates “Microsoft” XeroxJobs “Apple” XeroxClark “SGI” E&S, StanfordClark “Netscape” University of

Illinois

The Non-Linear


Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International 2005

3. Singapore

4. Iceland

5. Canada

6. Finland

7. Denmark

8. Switzerland

9. Australia

10.Luxembourg

Global Competition

1. USA

2. Hong Kong


Demassification

Denationalization

Despacialization

Disintermediation

Disaggregation

Decentralization

Source: The Social Life of information, Brown & Duguild March 2000

6-D Dimensions of Global Commerce


Where are the Brains?

(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)


An increasing attribute of our knowledge age

Exponential Economy

Copyright SRI International 2002


Source: Corporate Information Systems, Lynda Applegate, 1999

Make & Sell vs. Sense & Respond


Info-Tech

Nano-Tech

Bio-Tech

Technologies Change Fast

Source: SRI International 2002


“where ... The ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computer in the the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons” - Popular Mechanics, 1949

“I predict the internet... Will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse ” - Bob Metcalfe, 3COM founder and inventor, 1995

“This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us”

- Western Union, Internal memo, 1876

“The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it” - New York Times, 1949

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home”- Ken Olson, president and founder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

People Do Not (Anchor and Adjust)

Source: “The Future is Ours” Communication of the ACM, March 2001


Can Our Brains Handle It?

• Judgmental Forecasts of Exponential Growth are Highly Conservative.

• People Tend to Think in Terms of Unit Differences Rather than Percentage Differences

• J. Scott Armstrong (1985)


Exponential Growth

• How thick do you think a paper folded in-half 42 times would be?

• How thick would it be after 100 folds?

Source: “Long Range Forecasting” Amrstong 1985


Exponential Growth

The Answers

• 42 folds = 440,000 Km (the distance from the earth to the moon.)

• 100 folds = 850 trillion times the distance from the earth to the sun!

Source: “Long Range Forecasting” Amrstong 1985


How Far Does A Penny Go

1988 $ 11.00 per Megabyte

2007 1 cent per Megabyte

IBM Millipede (2008)

1 cent per Gigabyte

Nantero/Zettacore (in 4 years)

1 cent per Terabyte

Hewlett Packard (in 6 years)

1 cent per Petabyte

Source: Jack Uldrich, “The Next Big Thing is Really Small”


High Performance Computing (HPC)

• Gigaflop – One Billion Floating Point Operations per Second

• Teraflop – One Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second

• Petaflop- One Thousand Trillion Floating Point Operations per Second


• PetaFLOPS computers—capable of performing a thousand trillion mathematical operations per second

• Will open new doors to understanding the functions of biological molecules.

HPC and Next Generation Biology


HPC and Next Generation Biology

• Simulating 100 microseconds of protein folding could take 1025 machine instructions

• This computation would take three years on a PetaFLOP system or

• Keep a 3.2GHz microprocessor busy for the next million centuries.

Source: Communications of the ACM. Volume 47, Number 11 (2004), Pages 34-41


Blue Ribbon Task Force on Nanotechnology

• A joint federal-state venture to promote California as the national center for research, development, and commercialization of the nanotechnology industry.


California Council on Science and Technology 2004


Media Bandwidth

DSL/ Cable

IEEE 1394 / Firewire

Gigabit Ethernet

LASER / Fast Ethernet

10BaseT/CAT 5 Ethernet

Microwave

G2 Wireless

G3 / Wireless LAN

Async. Trans. Mode (ATM)

G1 Wireless

10Gig Ethernet

Vo

ice Inte

rnet

Acc

ess

Gam

ing

Fil

e sh

arin

g

Dig

ital

Mu

sic

NT

SC

Vid

eo

VH

S V

ideo M

PE

G V

ideo

DV

Vid

eo

HD

TV

Vid

eo

10^11

10^10

10^9

10^8

10^7

10^6

10^5

10^4

Ban

dw

idth

Req

uir

edB

its/

sec

(bp

s)120 Gbps 12X QDR InfiniBand 10^12


The U.S. Has Lost It ?

• The United States initially was the world leader in broadband deployment.

• Now it has plunged to 19th place.

• While the United States is still first in absolute number of broadband lines, its lead will soon be overtaken by China.

Source: http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0601, January 2006


The Bad New?

• The Brookings Institution estimated that America’s broadband decline could lead to a potential loss of $1 trillion in economic productivity over the next decade, as well as more than 1.2 million jobs that could be created by better broadband.

Source: The Brookings Institute 2004


Cities Are Getting It

• City of Amsterdam announced a project to deploy FTTU throughout the city. http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=86384

• Paris, France, announced the goal of deploying FTTU throughout “all of Paris.” http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=86547

• The City of Vienna, Austria, announced plans for a citywide FTTU network that will provide residents 1 Gbps of symmetrical broadband capacity. http://www.heise.de/english/newsticker/news/68912


Is Connectivity Enough?

Walmart Perspective

• If you can understand your data, you can do predictive analysis.

• It’s an advantage if suppliers can link into Walmart’s systems and perform their own analyses using Walmarts’s complex tables- CTO Walmart (September 2006)

Source: HPC Wire, September 15th , 2006


How Important is Computing?

Pratt & Whitney Perspective

• Building models on the computer is faster and lower-cost, and you can look at any level of detail.

• Digital models are the basis for innovation. • Suppliers also do modeling and simulation to speed

development and reduce costs.• We take a lot of time determining whether suppliers

can use these tools.- Chief engineer for systems analysis & aerodynamics, Pratt & Whitney

(September 2006)Source: HPC Wire, September 15th , 2006


Adapted from OSC GraphicsCouncil and USC ISI Proprietary

Competitiveness Transformation Challenge

20

Nu

mb

er

of

Us

ers

Nu

mb

er

of

Ap

plic

atio

ns

1 4 64

National ProductivityOpportunity

Entry Level

HPCUsers Experienced

HPC “Heroes”

Nodes 1,000 10,000+

NICE:Moving Users Forward

NICE:Moving Users Forward

World Class Computing

GovernmentLaboratories &University HPC

Centers

Experienced Industry Users

NICE: Filling the Expertise Gap

NICE: Filling the Expertise Gap

Never

Ever

Users

Mid-Range Users


Exponential Dynamic Systems

Common modes of complex in dynamic systems

Source: System Dynamics, John Sterman, 2000


Jay W. Forrester

• MIT 1939 Servomechanism Laboratory– Feedback control mechanisms for military equipment

• 1945 created an aircraft flight simulator for the U.S. Navy– Design was based on the untested technology of the “digital computer”

• 1947 MIT Digital Computer Laboratory founded (Director Forrester) WHIRWIND (general purpose digital computer)– Used to test computerized Combat Information Systems– Created technology– Invented computer magnetic core memory

• 1950 MIT Lincoln Laboratory Division – Semi-Automatic Ground Environment (SAGE) air defense system– 99.8% uptime during 25 years of deployment

• Experience as Manager on these projects lead him to conclude– The biggest impediment to progress was management not technology– Social Systems are much harder to understand than physical systems


Forrester: System Dynamics

• Forrester appreciated the difficulties faced by managers

• 1956 became professor at the newly-formed MIT School of Management

• Created Systems Dynamics– Under sponsorship of General Electric– 3 year employment cycle– Problem was due to internal structure of the firm not to

an external force such as the business cycle

• Moved to formal computer modeling of system dynamics


The Beer Game

Steady state at 4 cases per week.

Densmore O. 2005


Connectivity

J.W, Forrester, A. T. Kearney 2000


The Beer Game - Not Sharing

The system after only a single change from 4 to 8 case.


The Beer Game - Sharing

Knowledge sharing, reduces the damage of a simple change in the system.

Densmore 0. 2005


Dozier/Chang Findings 2004

• Disruptions move up and down the supply chain. Creates a state of co-dependency.

• Knowledge sharing between members of the supply chain tend to suppress the damage created by unwanted oscillations.

• Grid computing can create a B2B trust environment that creates super supply chains.


High Performance Grid Computing


Assessing Your Technology

Ind

ust

ry A

do

ptio

n o

f Te

chn

olo

gy

Executive’s Approach to Technology

CEO Not Involved CEO Involved

Bef

ore

Tec

hn

olo

gy

(No

n-C

ust

om

er F

aci

ng

)A

fter

-Te

chn

olo

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(Cu

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CIO Magazine June 2002


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