western research application center (wesrac) innovation in the exponential economy bio/nano/ info...
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Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Innovation in the Exponential Economy
Bio/Nano/ Info The Exponential Economy
Ken DozierExecutive Director, WESRAC
12/3/10
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
The Western Research Application Center
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Schismogenesis
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Jack Welch, Former Chairmen General Electric
The Future
“When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight”
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Controls $90 Billion Cash
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
6-D Global Commerce
Demassification
Denationalization
Despacialization
Disintermediation
Disaggregation
Decentralization
Source: The Social Life of information, Brown & Duguild
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International
3. Finland
4. Luxembourg
5. Netherlands
6. Hong Kong
7. Ireland
8. Sweden
9. Canada
10.Switzerland
Global Competition1.
2.
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Industry Clusters
– “Industry Cluster”: collections of competing and collaborating industries in a region networked into horizontal and vertical relationships, involving strong common buyer-supplier linkages, and relying on a shared foundation of specialized economic institutions. Because they are built around export-oriented firms, industry clusters bring new wealth into a region an help drive the regions economic growth.
Industry Cluster Electronic
Key Export Oriented Firms
Key Supplier Oriented Firms
Key Economic Infrastructure Providers
Consumer Electronic Assembly
Computer Hardware Assembly
Tool, Die & Machinery
Office & Production Supply
Specialized Component Supply
Education & Training Institutions
Physical Infrastructure Providers
Financial and Regulatory Institutions
(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Where are the Brains?
(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)
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(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)
Industry Clusters
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
1940
-196
5
1965
-199
0
1990
-201
5Motion Pictures
AviationElectronics
Defense Aviation
AutomobileManufacturing
FoodProcessing
Agriculture
Theme Parks
Motion Pictures
Television
ComputerPeripherals
Defense Instruments
Commercial Aviation
MetalProducts
GeneralManufacturing
InformationProcessing
DefenseAerospace
Theme Parks/Tourism
Visual Media Production
Professional Services
Multimedia Technology
Engineering Services
Technology-Based
Manufacturing
General Manufacturing
Information Processing
Business Services
The Evolution of Industry(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)
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Info-Tech
Nano-Tech
Bio-Tech
Technologies Change Fast
Source: SRI International 2002
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We Think We Are This
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Economic Theory Assumes
• The Economic Man is:– Rational– Knowledge of All Economic Aspects of His
Environment– While His Knowledge is Not Absolute, it is
Impressively Clear and Absolute– Has a Well Organized and Stable Set of – Has the Skills to Calculate Which Course of
Action Permits Him to Reach The Highest Attainable Point on His Preferential Scale
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We Are This
Richard Thaler Nudge: Improving Decisions About
Health, Wealth, and Happiness 2008
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Truth Knowledge Belief
Universal
No Debate
Phenomena
Social
Converge on debate
Theory
Personal
Diverge on debate
Guess (Hypothesis)
Source: “Ten Philosophical Mistakes”, Mortimer J. Adler 1985
What is Knowledge ?
Observation Explicit Tacit
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The Internet Changes Everything (ICE)
Exponential Economy
Copyright SRI International 2002
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Exponential Growth
• How thick do you think a paper folded in-half 42 times would be?
• How thick would it be after 100 folds?
Source: “Long Range Forecasting” Armstrong 1985
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Exponential Growth
The Answers
• 42 folds = 440,000 Km (the distance from the earth to the moon.)
• 100 folds = 850 trillion times the distance from the earth to the sun!
Source: “Long Range Forecasting” Armstrong 1985
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The Singularity is Nearer Than We Might Think
Posted by John Moravec on Wednesday, March 18th 2009 http://www.educationfutures.com
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California Council on Science and Technology 2004
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Next Generation Biology
• Simulating 100 microseconds of protein folding could take 1025 machine instructions
• This computation would take three years on a PetaFlop computer.– "Jaguar" is one of only two known computers on Earth
with peak performance exceeding a million billion (10^15) operations per second. The other one, IBM's
"Roadrunner" system at Los Alamos National Lab
• Keep a 3.2GHz microprocessor busy for the next million centuries.
Source: Communications of the ACM. Volume 47, Number 11 (2004), Pages 34-41
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Cloud Computing Utility
http://compete.org/HPC
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Adapted from OSC GraphicsCouncil and USC ISI Proprietary
Knowing Verses Doing Gap
20
Nu
mb
er
of
Us
ers
Nu
mb
er
of
Ap
plic
atio
ns
1 4 64
National ProductivityOpportunity
Entry Level
HPCUsers Experienced
HPC “Heroes”
Nodes 1,000 10,000+
Moving Users ForwardMoving Users Forward
World Class Computing
GovernmentLaboratories &University HPC
Centers
Experienced Industry Users
Filling the Expertise Gap Filling the Expertise Gap
Never
Ever
Users
Mid-Range Users
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
• Pre, Post Processor & Solver
• Hardware:
• 1 Core
• 3 GB Memory
• Software:
• Windows XP
• MSC.SimOffice
• Mathematica
• Solver
• Hardware:
• 8 Cores
• 48GB Memory
• Software:
• Linux
• 10 times faster Solving than PC
• Potential gateway to the HPC Cloud
• Solver
• Hardware:
• 100 – 10000 Cores
• ~ TBs Memory
• Software:
• Linux
• 40 times faster Solving than PC
1 Gbps
1, 12, 40 Gbps
Desktop PC Entrance-Level HPC HPC Cloud (Remote)
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Chart Source: Corporate Information Systems, Applegate
Complex Adaptive Systems
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Incubators and Science Parks created to bridge gap between development and commercialization
Chart Source: Corporate Information Systems, Applegate
SBIR Government (pull)Venture: Niche markets,
public trading (pull)
Universities: Curiosity Based, emerging, (push)
Large Companies hierarchy, products based, (push)
Make & Sell vs. Sense & Respond
B01-013
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Problem: Time
Source: Gus Koehler, University of Southern California Department of Policy and Planning, 2002
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Problem: Layers of Communication
Source: Gus Koehler, University of Southern California Department of Policy and Planning, 2002
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Problem : Government Dynamics
Source: Gus Koehler, University of Southern California Department of Policy and Planning, 2002
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How’s That Intuition Thing Working For You?
Source: Gus Koehler, University of Southern California Department of Policy and Planning, 2002
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Hope: Statistical Physics
• Proven formalism for “seeing the forest past the trees”– Well established in physical and chemical sciences– Our recent verification with data in economic realm
• Simple procedure for focusing on macro-parameters– Most likely distributions obtained by maximizing the
number of micro-states corresponding to a measurable macro-state
– Straightforward extension from original focus on energy to economic quantities
• Unit cost of production• Productivity• R&D costs
– Self-consistency check provided by distribution functions
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
More Hope: Plasma Theories
• Advanced plasma theories are extremely important when one tries to explain the various waves and instabilities found in the plasma environment. Since plasma consist of a very large number of interacting particles, in order to provide a macroscopic description of plasma phenomena it is appropriate to adopt a statistical approach. This leads to a great reduction in the amount of information to be handled. In the kinetic theory it is necessary to know only the distribution function for the system of particles.
Source: University of Oulu, FInland
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The Missing Link
Seven Organizational Change Propositions Framework, “Framing the Domains of IT Management” Zmud 2002
Business Process Improvement
Business Process Redesign
Business Model Refinement
Business Model Redefinition
Supply-chain Discovery
Supply-chain Expansion
Market Redefinition
High β
Low β
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Bio – DavidSemiotics Syntactics: Plasma Physics
* Stamper, Information, Norms and Systems (1996)
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Cu
mu
lati
ve N
um
ber
of
Co
mp
anie
s
U.S. Economic Census verses Dozier/Chang Model
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Actual Data – Dark Blue Diamonds
Dozier/Chang Model – Square (Purple) Points
Shipments per Company in $M
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Why Do We Tolerate This Much Waste?
4 Tier Supply Chain
Wilensky, U. (1999). NetLogo. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling. Northwestern University, Evanston, IL
Beer Game Demo Densmore, O. June 2004
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When We Could Pay Off the National Debt
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Emplyee Effectiveness
• Bureaucracies 0.25% - 1.0%
• Large Utilities 0.25% - 1.0%
• Large Corporations ( 10 k or more employees) 0.50% - 2.5%
• Medium Utilities 0.25% - 1.5%
• Medium Corporations (2k or more employees) 1.00% - 3.5%
• Small Companies (100 or more employees) 1.00% - 5.0%
• Tiny Companies (5 or more employees) 1.50% - 8.0%
American Institute of Business Consultants, J.R. Blake
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
Assessing Your Technology
Ind
ust
ry A
do
ptio
n o
f Te
chn
olo
gy
Executive’s Approach to Technology
CEO Not Involved CEO Involved
Bef
ore
Tec
hn
olo
gy
(No
n-C
ust
om
er F
aci
ng
)A
fter
-Te
chn
olo
gy
(Cu
sto
me
r F
acin
g)
CIO Magazine June 2002
Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)
http://wesrac.usc.edu
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