western interstate commission the advent of a new ... · january 26,2016 – boise, idaho ....
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Western Interstate Commission For Higher Education
ALASKA • ARIZONA • CALIFORNIA • COLORADO • HAWAI‘ I • IDAHO • MONTANA • NEVADA • NEW MEXICO • NORTH DAKOTA
OREGON • SOUTH DAKOTA • UTAH • WASHINGTON • WYOMING • U.S. PACIFIC TERRITORIES & FREELY ASSOCIATED STATES
The Advent of a New Millennium
in Idaho Higher Education. Presentation to:
Senate Education Committee
Idaho Legislature
David A Longanecker, President WICHE
January 26,2016 – Boise, Idaho
Measuring Up 2000: Where Idaho Stood
Preparation: D+
Participation: D
Affordability: B-
Completion: C
Benefits: C
Learning: Incomplete
Living In These Interesting Times -- Quite A Ride
The times they are a changing
The way we provide education is changing
Who we educate is changing
The way we assess the quality of our enterprise is changing
The way we finance the enterprise is changing
The Way We Provide Education Is Changing
Enrollment 2000 2014 Delta
U.S. Undergrad 13,142,996 17,278,939 31%
Public 80% 77% 19%
Private 17% 16% 25%
For Profit 3% 7% 217%
WICHE 3,585,697 4,690,587 31%
Public 88% 80% 19%
Private 8% 9% 44%
For Profit 4% 11% 256%
The Way We Provide Education Is Changing
Enrollment 2000 2014 Delta
U.S. Undergrad 13,142,996 17,278,939 31%
Public 80% 77% 19%
Private 17% 16% 25%
For Profit 3% 7% 217%
WICHE 3,585,697 4,690,587 31%
Public 88% 80% 19%
Private 8% 9% 44%
For Profit 4% 11% 256%
The Way We Provide Education Is Changing
Enrollment 2000 2014 Delta
U.S. Undergrad 13,142,996 17,278,939 31%
Public 80% 77% 19%
Private 17% 16% 25%
For Profit 3% 7% 217%
WICHE 3,585,697 4,690,587 31%
Public 88% 80% 19%
Private 8% 9% 44%
For Profit 4% 11% 256%
The Way We Provide Education Is Changing
Enrollment 2000 2014 Delta
U.S. Undergrad 13,142,996 17,278,939 31%
Public 80% 77% 19%
Private 17% 16% 25%
For Profit 3% 7% 217%
WICHE 3,585,697 4,690,587 31%
Public 88% 80% 19%
Private 8% 9% 44%
For Profit 4% 11% 256%
Idaho 57,968 110,962 91%
Public 81% 63% 48%
Private 18% 36% 264%
For Profit 1% 1% 117%
The Way We Provide Education Is Changing: On-line learning
How Were We Providing Higher Education in 2000
Share of students participating in On-line Education (2002)
At least one online course: 10%
Full time in Online Courses: 2%
How Are We Providing Higher Education Today Share of students participating in On-line Education (2013)
At least one online course: 27%
Full time in Online Courses: 13%
The Way We Provide Education Is Changing: Competency Based Learning
How Were We Providing Higher Education in 2000 The Novelty of Competency Based Institutions
Two “Known” Entities:
– WGU (1,200 students)
– Alverno College (2,500 students)
How Are We Providing Higher Education Today The Competency Wave
WGU having grown to 48,000 students
23 members of the Competency-Based Education Network
The Biggies: Alverno, Brandman, Capella, College for America (Southern New Hampshire), Community Colleges of Spokane, Northern Arizona University, University of Wisconsin, Western Governors University
Combined enrollments: more than 100,000 in whole; millions in part
Prior Learning Assessment (PLA): Becoming Ubiquitous (except where it is not)
The Way We Provide Education Is Changing The innovation wave
New providers of degrees
The expansion of the for-profit sector
The expansion of most institutions on-line New providers of courses & services
Courses only – MOOCS, Straighter Line, DreamDegree, Pearsons, Hobsons, etc.
Support services only – Insidetrack, Kahn Academy, Smarthinking, etc.
Tweener providers -- Boot Camps, App Academy
An Abundance of credentials – degrees, certificates, badges, etc.
The Question -- Chaos or Creative Engagement and Progress
Who We Educate Is Changing
Idaho
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic White, non-Hispanic
Who we educate is changing
Changes in the non-traditional aged population are significant
Who we educate is changing – Adult Students
25-44 Year Old 2001
25-44 Year Old 2013
Idaho
WICHE
US
Idaho
WICHE
US
25-34 Year Old Undergraduate Participation Rate
3.5% 4.7% 3.7% 6.0% 5.0% 3.8%
NCHEMS/Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey
Difference in College Attainment Between Whites and Minorities (Blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans) (2008-10)
35
.1
34
.5
33
.7
32
.1
29
.5
29
.5
29
.3
29
.0
28
.8
28
.5
28
.4
27
.6
26
.8
26
.3
26
.1
25
.8
25
.6
25
.4
25
.3
25
.3
24
.0
23
.2
23
.1
22
.6
22
.3
22
.3
22
.2
21
.7
21
.5
21
.3
21
.1
20
.9
20
.0
19
.5
19
.3
16
.9
16
.8
16
.3
15
.7
15
.5
15
.2
15
.0
14
.9
14
.8
13
.5
13
.4
13
.0
12
.0
8.8
8
.5
8.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Co
lora
do
N
ebra
ska
Cal
ifo
rnia
C
on
nec
ticu
t M
inn
eso
ta
Rh
od
e Is
lan
d
New
Jer
sey
Illin
ois
N
ew Y
ork
So
uth
Dak
ota
M
assa
chu
sett
s Io
wa
Uta
h
Idah
o
Wis
con
sin
K
ansa
s W
ash
ingt
on
A
rizo
na
Texa
s O
rego
n
New
Mex
ico
N
atio
n
Pen
nsy
lvan
ia
Del
awar
e
Vir
gin
ia
No
rth
Car
olin
a M
aryl
and
H
awai
i A
lask
a N
evad
a N
ort
h D
ako
ta
Sou
th C
aro
lina
Mic
hig
an
Mo
nta
na
Wyo
min
g Lo
uis
ian
a M
issi
ssip
pi
Geo
rgia
In
dia
na
Oh
io
New
Ham
psh
ire
O
klah
om
a A
lab
ama
Mis
sou
ri
Ark
ansa
s Te
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esse
e
Flo
rid
a K
en
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ain
e
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t V
irgi
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V
erm
on
t
slide 15
Average Annual Education Attainment of Idaho Residents Aged 25-44, White and Underrepresented Minorities, 2011-13
5.4
25.9
28.5
10.7
21.6
7.8
35.7
30.1
19.2
5.5 7.1
2.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Less than High School
High School Graduates
Some College, No Degree
Just an Associate
Degree
Just a Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate or Professional
Degree
White URM
Note: Underrepresented Minorities = Black, Hispanic, Native American/Alaska Native) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011-13 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata
Sample (PUMS) File.
Who we educate is changing
Why this is a huge issue.
An issue of equity and social justice
An economic imperative -- the big change since 2000
New Economy 2015 Index (Source: Kauffman Foundation, 2015)
Who we educate is changing
Looking down
College/Postsecondary in high schools (AP, dual & concurrent enrolment, IB, CTE, early college schools)
Improving Preparation
Common Core/Higher Ed for Higher Standards
Reinventing Remedial – The High School as partner
Looking up
Adult College Completion
Who we educate is changing
Changes in the traditional aged population are significant – Enrollment in Idaho
Racial Identity 2003 2013
African American 1% 1%
American Indian/Alaska Native 1% 1%
Asian/Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 2% 2%
Hispanic 3% 8%
White (Non-Hispanic) 89% 73%
Two or More Races -- 3%
Unidentified/Foreign 4% 12%
The way we assess the quality of our
enterprise is changing
Completion is the name of the game
So, How are we doing?
On attainment
U.S. States % OECD Country
Korea (65.7)
60
Japan
58
Canada
56
Massachusetts
North Dakota 54
Minnesota 52
New York
50 Luxembourg
New Jersey Ireland
Connecticut 48 United Kingdom
Nebraska, Illinois, Virginia New Zealand, Australia
Pennsylvania, Colorado, Maryland, Rhode Island, Iowa 46
Vermont, South Dakota, Wisconsin Norway
Kansas, New Hampshire 44 Israel, UNITED STATES
Hawaii, Montana Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, France
Washington, Missouri, Utah 42
Wyoming, Ohio Poland, Switzerland
Delaware, Michigan, Maine, California, North Carolina, Oregon 40 Denmark, Estonia, Finland
Florida Spain
38 Iceland
Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia, Indiana Slovenia, Greece
Kentucky 36
Texas, Idaho, Arizona
West Virginia 34
Alabama, Oklahoma, Alaska, New Mexico
Louisiana 32
Arkansas, Mississippi
Nevada 30 Hungary
Germany
28 Portugal, Czech Republic
Slovakia
26
24 Mexico
Austria
22 Chile, Italy
Turkey
20
Difference in College Attainment between Young Adults (25-34) and Older Adults (45-64), 2011
11
.1
9.7
9
.3
9.2
8
.9
8.4
7
.2
7.2
6
.6
6.4
6
.0
5.9
5
.6
5.5
5
.5
5.4
4
.2
4.0
3
.9
3.8
3
.4
3.3
3
.1
3.0
2
.8
2.7
2
.1
2.1
2
.0
2.0
1
.6
1.4
1
.4
1.3
0
.9
0.7
0
.7
0.6
0
.2
-0.3
-0
.4
-0.8
-1
.1
-1.1
-1
.3
-1.7
-1
.8
-2.4
-2
.4
-3.6
-5
.2
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12 Io
wa
No
rth
Dak
ota
So
uth
Dak
ota
P
enn
sylv
ania
N
ew Y
ork
M
inn
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ta
Illin
ois
M
assa
chu
sett
s M
isso
uri
W
est
Vir
gin
ia
Ind
ian
a O
hio
K
en
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a W
isco
nsi
n
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rask
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nia
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ew J
erse
y K
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s A
rkan
sas
Mo
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Ten
nes
see
A
lab
ama
Nat
ion
M
ich
igan
M
issi
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pi
No
rth
Car
olin
a V
erm
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t M
aryl
and
So
uth
Car
olin
a W
yom
ing
Geo
rgia
D
elaw
are
Fl
ori
da
Okl
aho
ma
Co
nn
ecti
cut
Uta
h
New
Ham
psh
ire
M
ain
e
Rh
od
e Is
lan
d
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rego
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Cal
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W
ash
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on
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olo
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Idah
o
Ari
zon
a A
lask
a H
awai
i N
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a N
ew M
exic
o
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey
slide 23
The way we assess the quality of our
enterprise is changing
Completion is the name of the game
So, How are you doing?
On Completions
The Way We Assess the Quality of Our Enterprise Is Changing
Completions 2001 2014 Delta
US Assoc &Bach Degrees
1,799,855 2,869,639 59%
Public 70% 69% 57%
Private 25% 21% 32%
For Profit 5% 10% 228%
WICHE 410,737 715,638 74%
Public 77% 70% 58%
Private 16% 12% 30%
For Profit 7% 18% 346%
Idaho 9,751 16,118 65%
Public 59% 61% 69%
Private 38% 36% 56%
For Profit 3% 3% 105%
The Way We Assess the Quality of Our Enterprise Is Changing
Completions 2001 2014 Delta
US Assoc &Bach Degrees
1,799,855 2,869,639 59%
Public 70% 69% 57%
Private 25% 21% 32%
For Profit 5% 10% 228%
WICHE 410,737 715,638 74%
Public 77% 70% 58%
Private 16% 12% 30%
For Profit 7% 18% 346%
Idaho 9,751 16,118 65%
Public 59% 61% 69%
Private 38% 36% 56%
For Profit 3% 3% 105%
The Way We Assess the Quality of Our Enterprise Is Changing
Completions 2001 2014 Delta
US Assoc &Bach Degrees
1,799,855 2,869,639 59%
Public 70% 69% 57%
Private 25% 21% 32%
For Profit 5% 10% 228%
WICHE 410,737 715,638 74%
Public 77% 70% 58%
Private 16% 12% 30%
For Profit 7% 18% 346%
Idaho 9,751 16,118 65%
Public 59% 61% 69%
Private 38% 36% 56%
For Profit 3% 3% 105%
The Way We Assess the Quality of Our Enterprise Is Changing
Completions 2001 2014 Delta
US Assoc &Bach Degrees
1,799,855 2,869,639 59%
Public 70% 69% 57%
Private 25% 21% 32%
For Profit 5% 10% 228%
WICHE 410,737 715,638 74%
Public 77% 70% 58%
Private 16% 12% 30%
For Profit 7% 18% 346%
Idaho 9,751 16,118 65%
Public 59% 61% 69%
Private 38% 36% 56%
For Profit 3% 3% 105%
The way we assess the quality of our
enterprise is changing
Completion is the name of the game
Competency is the new coin of the realm. Competency Assessment: for the Student
Transfer and Articulation - Trusting the community (Passport)
Demonstrated college level learning outside the Academy
Prior Leaning Assessment – PLA
CLEP, testing out, etc. Competency Assessment: for the Institution (Educational Improvement & Credibility)
Predictive Analytics/MLDE
Degree Qualifications Profiles
Tuning
Competency Based Education As a New Delivery Model
Direct Assessment Institutions
CBE Straight Up
The way we assess the quality of our
enterprise is changing
Completion is the name of the game
Competency is the new coin of the realm.
Assessment of student learning finally has legs
Student Learning – the new name of the game
Why now
Readiness has “evolved”
“Evidence based practice” has caught on in public policy
Analytics can support evidence based practice (CLA, CAAP, ETS Proficiency Profile, AHELO, Work-keys, PLA, etc.)
Angst
Whopping big change – moving to external validity
Still sorting out
Teacher’s role
Institution’s role
Governing board’s role
Government’s role
Productivity as part of the Quality Dimension
How Does Idaho Higher Education Measure Up
Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures – Total: Public Colleges & Universities
U.S.= $54,348/Degree ID = $47,393/Degree
Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures – Public Research Universities
U.S. = $54,945/Degree ID= $47,393/Degree
Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures – Public Bachelor’s & Master’s Colleges & Universities
U.S. = $45,455/Degree ID = $43,103/Degree
Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures – Public Two-Year Institutions
U.S. = $63,291/Degree ID = $ 60,606/Degree
National Student Clearinghouse Information on Student Completion in Six Years
Completion Not Enrolled or Completed
Idaho US Idaho US
Public Universities 44% 63% 32% 23%
Community/2 yr Colleges
38% 39% 47% 43%
The Way We Finance The Enterprise Is Changing
How Does Idaho Compare
The Way We Finance The Enterprise Is Changing
$8,6
15
$8,5
20
$8,3
01
$7,8
42
$7,5
72
$7,6
70
$7,9
20
$8,0
06
$8,3
05
$8,5
77
$8,7
99
$8,7
17
$8,9
64
$8,6
38
$7,9
93
$7,4
57
$7,4
01
$7,7
64
$7,9
58
$8,0
81
$7,5
53
$7,0
13
$6,7
37
$6,1
22
$6,2
15
$6,5
52
$2,7
92
$2,8
40
$2,9
37
$3,1
75
$3,3
77
$3,4
94
$3,5
87
$3,7
09
$3,7
62
$3,7
87
$3,7
89
$3,6
06
$3,7
36
$3,7
50
$3,8
34
$4,0
34
$4,1
93
$4,4
75
$4,5
47
$4,4
82
$4,5
60
$4,7
69
$4,9
62
$5,3
48
$5,6
24
$5,7
77
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Do
lla
rs p
er
FT
E
Pu
blic
FT
E E
nro
llm
en
t (M
illi
on
s)
Net Tuition Revenue per FTE (constant $) Educational Appropriations per FTE (constant $) Public FTE Enrollment
Note: Constant 2014 dollars adjusted by SHEEO Higher Education Cost Adjustment. Educational Appropriations include ARRA funds. (HECA)
The Way We Finance The Enterprise Is Changing
$10,4
06
$10,1
06
$10,5
34
$9,9
14
$9,2
88
$9,4
44
$9,5
97
$9,6
03
$9,4
68
$9,8
29
$10,2
31
$10,1
66
$10,5
45
$10,8
69
$9,4
22
$8,7
65
$8,7
85
$8,9
04
$9,1
86
$9,6
64
$9,4
31
$7,7
78
$6,6
38
$5,6
40
$6,1
32
$6,4
34
$1,6
04
$1,5
24
$1,6
42
$1,7
21
$1,8
58
$2,0
61
$2,0
55
$2,0
81
$2,0
56
$2,4
00
$2,3
36
$2,4
46
$2,4
62
$1,7
00
$2,0
51
$2,2
26
$2,4
41
$2,5
35
$2,6
75
$2,3
25
$2,4
85
$2,7
81
$3,0
27
$3,3
04
$3,6
82
$3,9
14
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Do
lla
rs p
er
FT
E
Pu
blic
FT
E E
nro
llm
en
t (T
ho
usa
nd
s)
Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriations and Total Educational Revenue per FTE, Idaho -- Fiscal 1989-2014
Net Tuition Revenue per FTE (constant $) Educational Appropriations per FTE (constant $) Public FTE Enrollment
Note: Constant 2014 dollars adjusted by SHEEO Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA). Educational Appropriations include ARRA funds.
Source: SHEEO
The Importance of These Statistics To Idaho Today and Tomorrow
Funding story is a mixed bag with respect to higher education State Funding is average:
@ $6,434, it is $118 (2%) below the national average
State Tax Effort: 7.2% Effective Tax Rate Slightly below national 7.6%
State Share of Tax Effort to Higher Education: 7.3% Well above the national average of 5.8%
4th highest in the WICHE region (trailing only New Mexico, Wyoming, and Utah)
The Importance of These Statistics To Idaho Today and Tomorrow
But Overall Funding is another story: @ $10,348, it is $$1,981 (16%) below the national average
How Is That Possible: – Tuition is comparatively high or low, depending:
» @ $3,749 for 2 year institutions • It is 7% above the WICHE average • And 9% above the National average
» @ $6,817 for 4 year institutions • It is 13% below the WICHE average • And 28% below the National average
– Financial Aid: » Modest in total: $5 million in 2013-14 » Very Modest for needy students: $1.4 million in 2013-14 (4th lowest in the country
at that time)
Net effect: Share of income required has increased appreciable over last decade. From 2.7% to 6.5% in community colleges From 6.9% to 12.% in universities
The Way We Finance The Enterprise Is Changing
Why a new normal & not return to the old normal Can’t afford the old normal
Hyper-inflationary model is unsustainable (unaffordable)
What the new normal looks like
Performance funding is the wave in most states – not Idaho
But not the only game in town
Affordability issues driving focus on costs & price Tuition Policy & Financial Aid sharing the stage
Generally lacking true integration of finance policies – Appropriations, Tuition Policy, and Financial Aid in Sync
Speaks to the wisdom of the Governor’s Request
Summing it all up
The times they are a changing
The way we provide education is changing
Who we educate is changing
The way we assess the quality of our enterprise is changing
The way we finance the enterprise is changing
Summing it all up
What this has wrought for Idaho Preparation: from D+ to C
Participation: from D to
C- for traditional students
B for older students
Affordability:
from B- to C
Completion:
from C to D
Quality/Learning: from Incomplete to
B+ on productivity
Incomplete on student learning outcomes
Summing it all up
Where to from here for Idaho
If you’re comfortable with a C+ average, stay the course
If you want something more, change is the logical option
Albert Einstein’s
Alleged Definition of Insanity
“Doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result ”
I encourage sanity in Idaho higher education public policy