west bengal mr pre poll survey

Introduction

West Bengal is located in the eastern region of India.

It is the 4th populous state in India with a total

population of 91, 347, 736 ( Census 2011) spread over

an area of Spread over 88,750 square Km. It shares

its border with countries like Bangladesh, Nepal and

Myanmar . Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, Sikkim, and Assam

are the states which share borders with West Bengal.

The state capital is Kolkata (formerly Calcutta). West Bengal

encompasses two broad natural regions: the Gangetic

Plain in the south and the sub-Himalayan and

Himalayan area in the north.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Total population (census 2011)-91, 347, 736.

Male: 46, 927, 389

Female : 44, 420, 347

Sex ratio: 950 per 1000 males.

Child Sex Ratio : 956

Density / square Km : 1,028

* Kolkata has got the highest density of 24,306 per square Km

PERCENTAGE OF MALE & FEMALE51%

49%

PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION

MALE FEMALE

URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION

RURAL POPULATION: 62,183,113.

URBAN POPULATION: 29,093,002.

URBAN POPULATION

MALE: 1,49,64,082

FEMALE: 1,41,28,920

MALE51%

FEMALE49%

POPULATION

68%

32%

POPULATIONRURAL URBAN

RURAL POPULATION:

MALE: 31,844,945

FEMALE: 30,338,168

HOUSEHOLDS

Total: 2,03,80,315

Urban-65,67,150

Rural-1,38,13,165

51%49%

Rural Population

MALE

FEMALE

North T

wenty

Four P

argan

as

South T

wenty

Four P

argan

as

Barddham

an

Murs

hidab

ad

Pasch

im M

edin

ipur*

Hugli

Nadia

Purba

Med

inip

ur*

Haora

Kolkat

a

Mal

dah

Jalp

aiguri

Banku

ra

Birbhum

Uttar D

inaj

pur

Puruliy

a

Koch B

ihar

Darjil

ing

Daksh

in D

inaj

pur0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000District Wise Population

LITERACY RATE

In 2011 : 76.26 %

MALE: 81.69 %

FEMALE: 66.57%

Total Literates: 6,15,38281

MALES : 3,38,18,810

FEMALES : 2,77,19,471.

DISTRICTS RATE (%)

PURBA MEDNIPUR 87.03

KOLKATA 86.31

NORTH 24 PARGANAS

84.06

HOWRAH 83.31

HOOGLY 81.8

HIGH LITERACY

RELIGION FOLLOWED:Hinduism- 72.5%

Islam- 25.2%

Others- 2.3%

Major languages spoken in West Bengal are Bengali, Hindi, English.

LARGEST DISTRICT

District Square Km

South 24 Parganas 9960

Paschim Medinipur 9368

Barddhaman 7024

Bankura 6882

Puruliya 6259

Major Issues on which People would Vote

Industrial Environment (Employment):

State's economic prospects after the turn of events in SingurDespite Government's several attempts entrepreneurs are still

not participatingGovernment’s new industry policyCentral public sector undertakings like the SAIL and NTPC are

investingYC Deveshwar, ITC and Harsh Neotia, Ambuja Realty Group

have taken particular interest The industry policy aims at generating 13.14 lakh jobs this

fiscal and extends incentives to industries for hiring youths from the State employment bank.

The recruitment examination for the primary teachers was mismanaged.

Overall job market is weakening due to lack of industries and lack of fund with the Govt.

Electricity & Fuel:

The state continues to suffer from frequent power cuts and situation is worsening day by day.

Steep rise in the fuel price has led to the demands of the public transports to hike the fare and the city experiences frequent strikes and agitations.

Security Concerns (especially for women):

According to recently released report by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB, West Bengal recorded 30,942 crime cases against women in 2012—the highest among states. They include 2,046 cases of rape, 4,168 of kidnapping, 593 of dowry deaths and 19,865 of domestic cruelty.

The state also faces a constant threat from the Maoists. The over-all crime rate is also increasing in the state. Despite the best

efforts of the State Election Commission (SEC), pre Panchayat election violence in West Bengal has increased sharply, leading to a near breakdown in the law and order situation.

The recent death of Sudipto Gupta a prominent leader of the student wings of left Front , in the police custody has raised a serious question about the law and order situation of the state.

Scam & Scandal-

Saradha chitfund scandal, Trident Light Scam of Kolkata Municipal Corporation, have rocked the political scenario in West Bengal.

In March, India’s corporate affairs minister Sachin Pilot told Parliament that there have been complaints against as many as 73 companies from West Bengal among 87 across India over Ponzi schemes.

The farmers are committing suicide because of non-remunerative prices for their crops. The Govt. has many questions to answer on that.

Conditions in the Govt. hospital has deteriorated as multiple cases of infant death made national headlines.

Making promises of launching projects in the face of major financial crisis:

While the state has deficit in fund, the Govt. makes huge investment in beautification of the city, ignoring other major issues.

In December 2011, 172 people died after drinking illicit liquor in Bengal. The state government offered Rs 2 lakh as compensation to the families of the dead.

Gorkhaland Issue:

West Bengal state is going to face a complicated political scenario in its foothills before next rural body election due to clear polarization between two halves of the Tribal community.

The largest conflict is over the question of tribal's support to West Bengal's ruling party Trinamool Congress(TMC).

While the mainstream tribal body Akhil Bharatiya Adivasi Vikash Parishad (ABAVP) has decided to indirectly support TMC, the breakaway group of tribals under the leadership of one John Barla is opposing TMC but accepting support from Jharkhand Mukti Morcha.

Congress-TMC coalition:

The recent breaking of coalition between Congress and TMC is going to play an interesting role to propel the voting decision of the mass.

One more chance to the two-year-old government Vs disillusionment with the Govt -

Research shows that section of the mass still believes that the ruling Government. should be given more time while a substantial part of the formerly pro-TMC voters are disillusioned with the dismal performance of the Government

Lack of trust in Left Front:

The Left Front which was ousted from power after 34 years of ruling, is yet to get back the mass support as not much of activity has been done by the party in the last two years as an opposition.

Trade off between agriculture & industry:

The Trinamool Congress government, which once voiced its opposition to land acquisition, is going in for the biggest land acquisition drive, set to acquire 3, 600 acres of land at Burdwan

The housing project is for the people evicted by Eastern Coalfields Limited (ECL) as its mining projects has been re-approved by the Commerce and Industries Department.

Land required for road construction and industry will be acquired through negotiation with maximum considerations. Government holds it stand that there will be no forced land acquisition.

Political Stances of the Major Parties

All India Trinamool Congress(AITC):-• Portraying the party as a harbinger of Development by means

of Social, Infrastructure Spending

• Reinforcing its image as a supporter of pro-rural and pro-middle class policy by means of such moves as not allowing Center to increase prices of petrol, diesel and LPG and leaving its coalition with UPA-II to show disagreement on FDI in retail.

• Recent tussle between Congress and Trinamool in regards to election seat and position in New Jalpaiguri Municipal Region.

• As of now does not look like going to support either of the Central big Party and going with the Third or Fourth front Alliance.

• As for state and Center both ways Trinamool will put there image of Supporter of Pro-Rural or common man Supporting Policy, thereby reaching out to mass.

May act as the best alternative available as of now for state and also can act as King Maker or Breaker in upcoming 2014 election due to its rising impact on regional grounds in East and North Eastern and hold of substantial Seats in Lok Sabha.

Try to bring some effective policy for the Industry because till now policy brought in TMC has not bring in much impact in the mind of People or Industry either ways in terms of creating job opportunities or Revenue or Debt –Ridden state.

Left Front: Communist Party of India (Marxist)(CPI-M) and Communist Party of India(CPI)

Trying to take back lost grounds in West Bengal of

so many year of ruling supremacy by developing

Image make over.

Have to work upon recreating image in minds of

people of being reformist and change or bring in

some editing in ideology in terms of being Reform

oriented and developing pro rural policy.

INDIAN NATIONAL CONGRESS (INC) and BHARTIYA JANATA PARTY (BJP)

In terms of West Bengal both party has almost least presence and impact of their ideology implications in the state therefore it used to hardly have any impact on the Regional Politics.

Congress has a little ground in Malda, New Jalpaiguri Region but off late the same has been lost due to ineffective working of its seating MLA’s and cadre in the region.

Lots of Bengal they can’t even as supporting policy due to their size and reach out.

ANALSYSIS OF THE SURVEY

Critical Factors

Indust

rializ

ation

Financia

l cris

is

Monito

ry fr

auds

Crimes

against

wom

en

Maoist

issu

es

Fuel pric

e hike

Unemplo

yment

Gork

haland is

sues

Educatio

n polic

ies

Energy

crisi

s0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.0

8.2 8.2 7.8

6.5 6.85.7

3.83.0

2.13.0

Determining Weightage

Improving infrastructure to promote Industrialization 0.15Recovery from financial crisis 0.15Scams & monitory frauds 0.14Crimes against women 0.12Issues related to Maoist infested areas 0.12Fuel price hikes 0.10Unemployment 0.07Gorkhaland concerns 0.05Education policies 0.04Energy crisis 0.05

Comparative analysis of Performance

TMC G

overn

ment

CPI(M)

CONG

RESSBJP

TMC-C

ONG

RESS

TMC-B

JP

ALTERNATE0.000

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

3.039 2.9562.821

2.502

3.015 2.951 2.969

Government: Single or Coalition?

65.07

34.93

SingleCoalition

Preference for Single Government

56.9731.15

10.661.23

TMCCPI(M)CONGRESSBJP

Preference for Coalition Government

88.55

11.45

TMC-CONGRESSTMC-BJP

Impact of split between TMC and UPA

38.67

33.87

9.87

17.60

YesNoNo impactCan't say

Factors responsible for Split

24.82

26.0120.41

16.9111.86 FDI

Diesel price hikeDisagreement over Municipality ElectionLimitation on subsidy on CylinderNCTC

Supporting TMC’s stance on FDI

59.73

40.27

YesNo

Supporting TMC’s stance on Diesel Price hike

64.8

35.2

YesNo

Supporting TMC’s stance on Municipality Election

50.6749.33YesNo

Supporting TMC’s stance on Cylinder Subsidy

59.47

40.53

YesNo

Supporting TMC’s stance on NCTC

51.248.8YesNo

Lok Sabha Elections 2014: TMC again?

54.6730.40

14.93

YesNoCan't say

Why Yes?

39.22

4.9538.16

17.67Genuine faith in TMCMisappropriation of powerLack of trust in Left FrontNo strong 3rd Party opposition

Why No?

43.71

27.15

13.91

15.23 Failure to keep up to promisesWithdrawal from UPALeft Front restoring image partially3rd Parties gaining momentum

Other Alternatives

79.82

13.167.02

CPI(M)CONGRESSBJP