we_nato - 2.0 challenges from a system theory point of view
DESCRIPTION
Peter Kruse's presentation at an internal NATO workshop .... getting ready for web 2.0!TRANSCRIPT
1
The Network Challenge:Some arguments to evaluate the cost-benefit ratio ofopen communication and participation via Internet
Prof. Dr. Peter Kruse
2
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
short introduction
3
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
How can people andcomputers be connectedso that –
collectively –
they act more intelligentlythan any individuals,groups or computershave ever done before?Massachusetts Institute of Technology
established in October 2006
short introduction
For more than 30 years working on network dynamics and collective intelligence:
4
Power shift enforced by network architecture
Expectations provoked by network experience
Cultural change necessary for network success
5
Power shift enforced by network architecture
Expectations provoked by network experience
Cultural change necessary for network success
6
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
connectivityby hyperlink
access boom1.
spontaneous activity of nodes
self-organisingnetwork
involvement boom 2.
recurrentexcitations
3.
newinformation
medium
Power shift enforced by network architecture
Internet
7
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
200520001995 2010
KILLER APPLIKATIONM
OTIVE FOR ACTION
to get information
for freeto manage
exploding information
to create networks
together
to leave personal
traces80
100
120
140
160
access boom involvement boom
time people spend in the internet
0. 1. 2. 3.
Broadcast Yourself
minutesa day
8
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
3. promotion of many recurrent excitations
2. critical level of spontaneous activity
1.
very high degree of connectivity
high probability of sudden autocatalytic boosts (avalanche effects, hypes) Coca Cola
commercial
Power shift enforced by network architecture
9
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
Homeless guywith a strikingradio voice“detected”incidentallyby a reporterat a streetcorner inColumbus, Ohio.
“The Golden Voice”
Ted Williams in 1 week > 12 million views
Marshall Mc Luhan
“15 minutes of fame”
(Andy Warhol):
012011
Power shift enforced by network architecture
10
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
The Group “Walk of the Earth”
in 2 weeks > 35 million views
Marshall Mc Luhan
“15 minutes of fame”
(Andy Warhol):
012012
Five musiciansfrom Canadacover the hit“Somebody that I usedto know”playingtogether ononly one guitar.
Power shift enforced by network architecture
11
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
newinformation
medium
self-organisingnetwork
Web 1.0 “new medium”more linear dynamics
“s-o
network”
Web 2.0non-linear dynamics
the impact of a contribution is a function of the amountof activity invested by the
providerthe stronger the input the more intense is the effect(presence and attention)
the impact of a contribution is a function of the amount
of activity invested by the
prosumervery small causes may have
surprisingly huge effects(attraction and resonance)
Power shift enforced by network architecture
power shift
12
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
newinformation
medium
self-organisingnetwork
Web 1.0 “new medium”linear dynamics
“s-o
network”
Web 2.0non-linear dynamics
cause = effect cause ≠
effect
Power shift enforced by network architecture
13
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 01.
March 2011February 2011
People have realised the power of resonance effects for political agenda setting:
first article on possible plagiarism ----
demission as German defence minister
Karl-Theodor zu
Guttenberg
hit by an avalanche
Power shift enforced by network architecture
14
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
Power shift enforced by network architecture
Listen to people:Without empatheticunderstanding ofthe mostly hiddenforce fields of a culture or a societyit is impossible topredict emergenceof resonance effects.
Task is to analyse the implicit value systems of cultures and societies.
beatentracks
15
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
connectivityby hyperlink
spontaneous activity of nodes
self-organisingnetwork
newinformation
medium
Power shift enforced by network architecture
Internet
PUSH-PRINCIPLEcommunication strategypresence and attention
PULL-PRINCIPLEempathy for value systems
attraction and resonance
no web 2.0-strategy
legend of viral marketing
16
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
The Force: Volkswagen commercial
49.064.539 views (until 23.01.2012)
32.817 comments190.484 I like it no. 3 top scorercars & vehicles
Power shift enforced by network architecture
17
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
www.vwdarkside.com
Power shift enforced by network architecture
500 thousand instead of 50 millions
18
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
Success principles to deal with the network challenge:
The behaviour of self-organised networks is far too complex to be used as strategic communication tool.Network dynamics can not be predicted or controlled.
To be part of an open network communication is away to improve perception and understanding of thecultural force fields enabling resonance (push to pull).
Power shift enforced by network architecture
1
19
Power shift enforced by network architecture
Expectations provoked by network experience
Cultural change necessary for network success
20
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
polarisation byshortage of resources(limits to growth)
exceeding individual capacities
increasing conflicts of interest
sustainability
complexity bynetworking
(globalisation)
Expectations provoked by network experience
Why is collective intelligence a buzz word?
Why put people so much hope in Internet?
balancingsocialfrictions
21
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
CEOs
agree:
Complexityis the biggestchallenge today.
Executives say:
Improving exchangeof information is thenumber one action.
Confronting complexityJanuary 2011
CEOs
and complexityJanuary 2011
Study based on interviews with 1.400 Senior executives in 22 countries
Expectations provoked by network experience
22
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
political partiesgroups of expertslobbyists
stakeholderscitizens’
initiatives
state residents
directdemocracy
politics
representative democracy
complexitytrap
polarisation byshortage of resources(limits to growth)
complexity bynetworking
(globalisation)
Why is collective intelligence a buzz word?
Expectations provoked by network experience
ill-definedbasis fordecisions
23
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
LiquidDemocracy
political partiesgroups of expertslobbyists
stakeholderscitizens’
initiatives
state residents
directdemocracy
representative democracy
polarisation byshortage of resources(limits to growth)
complexity bynetworking
(globalisation)
Why is collective intelligence a buzz word?
hope forcollectiveintelligence
Expectations provoked by network experience
politics
complexitytrap
24
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
Time Magazineperson of the year
December 2006:
collective intelligenceof people in Web 2.0
The end of the“Great Man”
theory
of history.
Expectations provoked by network experience
25
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
decision makermanagementleaders
staffcustomers
cooperation partners
level ofinformation
impact of decisions
ill-definedbasis fordecisions
polarisation byshortage of resources(limits to growth)business
complexity bynetworking
(globalisation)
Why is collective intelligence a buzz word?
Expectations provoked by network experience
complexitytrap
26
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
decision makermanagementleaders
level ofinformation
impact of decisions
polarisation byshortage of resources(limits to growth)business
complexity bynetworking
(globalisation)
hope forcollectiveintelligence
implementingenterprise 2.0
collaborativesoftware
Why is collective intelligence a buzz word?
Expectations provoked by network experience
staffcustomers
cooperation partners
complexitytrap
27
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
Expectations provoked by network experience
McKinsey2011
28
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
evaluation
activation
reticular systemlevel of alertness
decision makinglimbic system
brain as naturesbest example foran intelligentnetwork
complexityreduction by3 interactingsubsystemsHow to create
collective intelligence ?
associationcreative connections
cortical system
29
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
evaluationdecision makinglimbic system
How to createcollective intelligence ?
avalancheeffect, hypes
non-lineardynamics
activation
reticular systemlevel of alertness
associationcreative connections
cortical system
Internet ?
30
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
evaluationdecision makinglimbic system
How to createcollective intelligence ?
hyperlinkarchitecture
non-lineardynamics
avalancheeffect, hypes
activation
reticular systemlevel of alertness
associationcreative connections
cortical systemconnectivity
Internet ?
31
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
evaluationdecision makinglimbic system
How to createcollective intelligence ?
hyperlinkarchitecture
problemof semantics
non-lineardynamics
avalancheeffect, hypes
activation
reticular systemlevel of alertness
associationcreative connections
cortical systemconnectivity
Internet ?
32
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
limbic system
cortical system
pattern formationfast changing
ideas
Berlitz
School
decision makingsustainable
values
turning mask
Expectations provoked by network experience
33
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
Expectations provoked by network experience
Why the Internet has an evaluation problem:
Following the definition of Marshall McLuhanthe Internet is a “cool”
medium which needs
a lot of effort on the part of the users to determine meaning (ill-defined context):hyperlink architecture and lack of consensusin using words (taxonomy, social tagging).
34
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
Expectations provoked by network experience
CARTRIPNATURE
CARTRIPNATURE
CARTRIPNATURE
VACATION TRIP
DRIVING FUN
ECO-BALANCE
dilemma of social tagging
same tags
different concepts
conceptA
conceptB
conceptC
35
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
Expectations provoked by network experience
Why the Internet has an evaluation problem:
Any statistical evaluation procedure like themeasurement on basis of standardisedscales is subject to the jury-theorem postedby Marquis de Condorcet
(1743 -
1794):
to get proper results the mean rating hasto be above chance (distributed knowledge).
36
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
relevance
qualitativeevaluation
limitedexpertnetworks
quantity
mean rating above chance
problem of semantics
distributed knowledgeand shared culture Wisdom of
the Crowd
quantitativeevaluation
Condorcet-Jury-Theorem
Expectations provoked by network experience
discourse
< chance
37
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
Expectations provoked by network experience
Tasks to be solved by an open platform:(realistic expectations)
on national and international level:
•
agenda setting and agitation•
activation of democratic majorities
•
synchronisation of protest movements•
understanding social-cultural dynamics
•
involvement in ordinary decision making
38
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
Expectations provoked by network experience
Tasks not
to be solved by an open platform:(unrealistic expectations)
on national and international level:
•
production of innovative solutions•
elaboration of sophisticated content
•
involvement in complex decision making
tasks only possible in limited expert networks
39
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
evaluation associationcreative connections
cortical systemdecision makinglimbic system
How to createcollective intelligence ?
hyperlinkarchitecture
problemof semantics
non-lineardynamics
avalancheeffect, hypes
activation
reticular systemlevel of alertness
connectivity
40
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
Success principles to deal with the network challenge:
In open networks like the Internet the realisation of collective intelligence is strongly limited by loss oforiginal context (semantic problem, “cool”
medium).
To save participation from triviality only topics shouldbe addressed where a sufficient level of distributedknowledge and a minimum cultural fit is guaranteed.
Power shift enforced by network architecture
2
41
Power shift enforced by network architecture
Expectations provoked by network experience
Cultural change necessary for network success
42
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
Cultural change necessary for network success
1956An introduction to Cybernetics:
variety absorbs variety
Ashby’s Lawof requisite
variety
William Ross Ashby (1899 –
1992)
Principles of the self-organizingdynamic systems (1947)
to handle networkdynamics it is necessary
to act like a dynamic network
43
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
network
hierarchy
self-organisation
steering andregulation
Culture of organisations has to be flexible enough to change between two modes:
Cultural change necessary for network success
44
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
HIERARCHY NETWORK
centralised organisationcommand and controlsteering, regulationconfidentiality
STRENGTHSclear orientationpowerful realization
SCOPElower complexitymandate to stabilise
decentralised organisationtolerance and trust
self-organisationtransparency
STRENGTHSfast adaptability
creative invention
SCOPEhigher complexity
permission to de-stabilise
cultural change
Cultural change necessary for network success
45
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
entrepreneurshipPULL
PUSHmanagement
COACHING OPTIMISATION
INSPIRATION NETWORKING
organisationpeople/staff
soft facts
soft facts
hard facts
hard facts
next practice
best practice
leadership excellence
46
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
Success principles to deal with the network challenge:
The unrestricted communication in open networks is very fast in detecting and very rigorous in criticising mismatch between published intentions and reality.
Before starting an new platform for participation anyorganisation should reflect on own readiness to adapt to the implicit value system of networks (authenticity).
3
Cultural change necessary for network success
47
THE NETWORK CHALLENGE
nextpractice GmbHSchuppen 2 Hoerneckestraße 25-31D-28217 BremenTel. +49 (0)421-3355880Fax. +49 (0)[email protected] www.nextpractice.de