wellness report

8/9/2019 Wellness Report

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...................................................................................................1

1. PURPOSE....................................................................................................................2

2. BACKGROUND...........................................................................................................23. REPORT SCOPE.........................................................................................................2

3.1 Project Scope.......................................................................................................3.2 USACE Risk Analysis Process.............................................................................

4. METHODOLOGY/PROCESS......................................................................................3

4.1 I enti!y an Assess Risk "actors.........................................................................4.2 #$anti!y Risk "actor I%pacts...............................................................................4.3 Analy&e Cost Esti%ate an Sc'e $le Contin(ency.............................................

5. KEY ASSUMPTIONS...................................................................................................

!. RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS........................................................................................

).1 Risk Re(ister........................................................................................................).2 Cost Risk Analysis * Cost Contin(ency Res$lts...................................................).3 Sc'e $le Risk Analysis * Sc'e $le Contin(ency Res$lts...................................).4 Co%+ine Cost an Sc'e $le Contin(ency Res$lts...........................................

. MAJOR FINDINGS/OBSERVATIONS.......................................................................1"

#. MITIGATION RECOMMENDATIONS........................................................................11

LIST OF TABLES

,a+le 1. -ork reak o/n Str$ct$re +y "eat$re...............................................................),a+le 2. Sa%ple Project Contin(encies 0 ase Cost Pl$s Cost an Sc'e $leContin(encies .................................................................................................................1

FIGURE

"i($re 1. Sa%ple o! Project Con!i ence C$r es............................................................11

APPENDIX

APPE DI5 A Detaile Risk Re(ister

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Pro i e a +rie! synopsis o! t'e %ain report6 keep pa(es o! t'e e7ec$ti e s$%%ary to a%ini%$% co erin(:

• Report p$rpose.• ack(ro$n .• Project scope.• Risk analysis %et'o olo(y.• Project e elop%ent tea% 0PD, processes $tili&e 0e7cl$ e na%es• 8ey project an risk ass$%ptions.• Contin(ency res$lts to t'e !eat$re le el.• 9ajor !in in(s o+ser ations.• 9iti(ation reco%%en ations.

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1. PURPOSE

Present report p$rpose; ackno/le (in( project na%e; location; an esi(n p'ase. ,'ep$rpose !or a cost an sc'e $le risk analysis 0CSRA /o$l +rie!ly present isc$ssion

o! t'e st$ ie ele%ents relate to cost an sc'e $le /it' an o$tco%e contin(encycalc$lation at t'e reco%%en e con!i ence le el !or +ot' cost an sc'e $le t'at are%eas$re in ter%s o! ollars an %ont's; respecti ely. ,'e %ost co%%on anreco%%en e contin(ency 'as +een esta+lis'e at < percent con!i ence.

2. BACKGROUND

Present project +ack(ro$n ; incl$ in( any relate con(ressional appropriations; esi(ne elop%ent p'ase; an +rie! 'istory.

3. REPORT SCOPE,'e scope o! t'e risk analysis report is to calc$late an present t'e cost an sc'e $lecontin(encies at t'e < percent con!i ence le el $sin( t'e risk analysis processes as%an ate +y U.S. Ar%y Corps o! En(ineers 0USACE En(ineer Re($lation 0ER 111 *2*11= ; En(ineerin( an Desi(n !or Ci il -orks; ER 111 *2*13 2; Ci il -orks CostEn(ineerin(; an En(ineer ,ec'nical >etter 111 *2*=?3; Constr$ction Cost Esti%atin(@$i e !or Ci il -orks. ,'e report presents t'e contin(ency res$lts !or +ot' cost ansc'e $le risks !or all project !eat$res. ,'e st$ y an presentation can incl$ e ore7cl$ e consi eration !or operation an %aintenance or li!e cycle costs; epen in(

$pon t'e pro(ra% or ecision oc$%ent inten e !or !$n in(.

3.1 P$%&'() S(%*'

Pro i e any con(ressional %an ates an appropriations.

,'e report incl$ es t'e project tec'nical scope; esti%ates; an sc'e $les as e elopean presente +y 0list t'e na%e o! t'e pro $ct e eloper +y istrict or esi(n !ir% .Conse $ently; t'ese oc$%ents ser e as t'e +asis !or t'e risk analysis. In (eneralter%s; t'e constr$ction scope consists o! t'e !ollo/in(:

• >ist %ajor project !eat$res st$ ie !ro% t'e ci il /orks /ork +reak o/nstr$ct$re 0C-- S .

• In icate t'e appro7i%ate esi(n p'ase. 9any ti%es; ario$s esi(n !eat$resare at aryin( esi(n sta(es; /'ic' i%pact t'e contin(ency res$lts. I! t'ere isa esi(n $ality or scope ariance +et/een ario$s critical !eat$res; /'ic's'o$l +e %a e kno/n.

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3.2 USACE R+,- A 0 ,+, P$%(',,

,'e risk analysis process !ollo/s t'e USACE Bea $arters re $ire%ents as /ell as t'e($i ance pro i e +y t'e Cost En(ineerin( Directory o! E7pertise !or Ci il -orks 0CostEn(ineerin( D5 . ,'e risk analysis process re!lecte /it'in t'e risk analysis report

$ses pro+a+ilistic cost an sc'e $le risk analysis %et'o s /it'in t'e !ra%e/ork o! t'eCrystal all so!t/are. ,'e risk analysis res$lts are inten e to ser e se eral !$nctions;one +ein( t'e esta+lis'%ent o! reasona+le contin(encies re!lecti e o! an < percentcon!i ence le el to s$ccess!$lly acco%plis' t'e project /ork /it'in t'at esta+lis'econtin(ency a%o$nt. "$rt'er%ore; t'e scope o! t'e report incl$ es t'e i enti!icationan co%%$nication o! i%portant steps; lo(ic; key ass$%ptions; li%itations; an

ecisions to 'elp ens$re t'at risk analysis res$lts can +e appropriately interprete .

Risk analysis res$lts are also inten e to pro i e project lea ers'ip /it' contin(encyin!or%ation !or sc'e $lin(; +$ (etin(; an project control p$rposes; as /ell as pro i etools to s$pport ecision %akin( an risk %ana(e%ent as t'e project pro(ressest'ro$(' plannin( an i%ple%entation. ,o !$lly reco(ni&e its +ene!its; cost an sc'e $lerisk analyses s'o$l +e consi ere as an on(oin( process con $cte conc$rrent to;an iterati ely /it'; ot'er i%portant project processes s$c' as scope an e7ec$tion plan

e elop%ent; reso$rce plannin(; proc$re%ent plannin(; cost esti%atin(; +$ (etin(; ansc'e $lin(.

In a ition to +roa ly e!ine risk analysis stan ar s an reco%%en e practices; t'erisk analysis is per!or%e to %eet t'e re $ire%ents an reco%%en ations o! t'e

!ollo/in( oc$%ents an so$rces:

• ER 111 *2*11= ; En(ineerin( an Desi(n !or Ci il -orks Projects.• ER 111 *2*13 2; Ci il -orks Cost En(ineerin(.• E,> 111 *2*=?3; Constr$ction Cost Esti%atin( @$i e !or Ci il -orks.• Cost an Sc'e $le Risk Analysis Process ($i ance prepare +y t'e USACE

Cost En(ineerin( D5.• 9e%oran $% !ro% 9ajor @eneral Don ,. Riley 0U.S. Ar%y Director o! Ci il

-orks ; ate $ly 3; 2 ?.• En(ineerin( an Constr$ction $lletin iss$e +y a%es C. Dalton; P.E. 0C'ie!;

En(ineerin( an Constr$ction; Directorate o! Ci il -orks ; ate Septe%+er1 ; 2 ?.

4. METHODOLOGY/PROCESS

Present tea% %ake$p; incl$ in( PD, %e%+ers an tec'nical positions; as /ell as t'etea% %ake$p per!or%in( t'e risk analysis 0+ot' USACE an contracte %e%+ers; not+y na%e; +$t +y position . Present ti%e!ra%e o! t'e st$ y.

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4.1 I ' )+ A,,',, R+,- F ()%$,

I enti!yin( t'e risk !actors ia t'e PD, are consi ere a $alitati e process t'at res$ltsin esta+lis'in( a risk re(ister t'at ser es as t'e oc$%ent !or t'e !$rt'er st$ y $sin( t'eCrystal all risk so!t/are. Risk !actors are e ents an con itions t'at %ay in!l$ence or

ri e $ncertainty in project per!or%ance. ,'ey %ay +e in'erent c'aracteristics orcon itions o! t'e project or e7ternal in!l$ences; e ents; or con itions s$c' as /eat'er or econo%ic con itions. Risk !actors %ay 'a e eit'er !a ora+le or $n!a ora+le i%pacts onproject cost an sc'e $le.

C'ecklists or 'istorical ata+ases o! co%%on risk !actors are so%eti%es $se to!acilitate risk !actor i enti!ication. Bo/e er; key risk !actors are o!ten $ni $e to a projectan not rea ily eri a+le !ro% 'istorical in!or%ation. ,'ere!ore; inp$t !ro% t'e entirePD, is o+taine $sin( creati e processes s$c' as +rainstor%in( or ot'er !acilitate riskassess%ent %eetin(s. In practice; a co%+ination o! pro!essional j$ (%ent !ro% t'ePD, an e%pirical ata !ro% si%ilar projects is esira+le an is consi ere .

"or%al PD, %eetin(s are 'el 0incl$ e t'e na%e o! t'e location in t'e report !or t'ep$rposes o! i enti!yin( an assessin( risk !actors. ,'e %eetin(s 0incl$ e t'e ates'o$l incl$ e capa+le an $ali!ie representati es !ro% %$ltiple project tea%

isciplines an !$nctions; !or e7a%ple:

• Project pro(ra% %ana(ers.• Contractin( ac $isition.•

Real Estate.• Relocations.• En iron%ental.• Ci il; str$ct$ral; (eotec'nical; an 'y ra$lic esi(n.• Cost an sc'e $le en(ineers.• Constr$ction.• 8ey sponsors

,'e initial !or%al %eetin(s s'o$l !oc$s pri%arily on risk !actor i enti!ication $sin(+rainstor%in( tec'ni $es; +$t also incl$ e so%e !acilitate isc$ssions +ase on risk

!actors co%%on to projects o! si%ilar scope an (eo(rap'ic location. S$+se $ent%eetin(s s'o$l !oc$s pri%arily on risk !actor assess%ent an $anti!ication.

A itionally; n$%ero$s con!erence calls an in!or%al %eetin(s are con $ctet'ro$('o$t t'e risk analysis process on an as*nee e +asis to !$rt'er !acilitate risk!actor i enti!ication; %arket analysis; an risk assess%ent.

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4.2 )+ R+,- F ()%$ I6* (),

,'e $antitati e i%pacts o! risk !actors on project plans are analy&e $sin( aco%+ination o! pro!essional j$ (%ent; e%pirical ata; an analytical tec'ni $es. Risk!actor i%pacts are $anti!ie $sin( pro+a+ility istri+$tions 0 ensity !$nctions ; +eca$se

risk !actors are entere into t'e Crystal all so!t/are in t'e !or% o! pro+a+ility ensity!$nctions.

Si%ilar to t'e i enti!ication an assess%ent process; risk !actor $anti!ication in ol es%$ltiple project tea% isciplines an !$nctions. Bo/e er; t'e $anti!ication processrelies %ore e7tensi ely on colla+oration +et/een cost en(ineerin(; esi(ners; an riskanalysis tea% %e%+ers /it' lesser inp$ts !ro% ot'er !$nctions an isciplines.

,'e !ollo/in( is an e7a%ple o! t'e PD, $anti!yin( risk !actor i%pacts +y $sin( aniterati e; consens$s*+$il in( approac' to esti%ate t'e ele%ents o! eac' risk !actor:

• 9a7i%$% possi+le al$e !or t'e risk !actor.• 9ini%$% possi+le al$e !or t'e risk !actor.• 9ost likely al$e 0t'e statistical %o e ; i! applica+le.• at$re o! t'e pro+a+ility ensity !$nction $se to appro7i%ate risk !actor

$ncertainty.• 9at'e%atical correlations +et/een risk !actors.• A!!ecte cost esti%ate an sc'e $le ele%ents.

In t'is e7a%ple; t'e risk isc$ssions !oc$se on t'e ario$s project !eat$res as

presente /it'in t'e USACE Ci il -orks -ork reak o/n Str$ct$re !or cost acco$ntin(p$rposes. It /as reco(ni&e t'at t'e ario$s !eat$res carry i!!erin( e(rees o! risk asrelate to cost; sc'e $le; esi(n co%ple7ity; an esi(n pro(ress. ,'e e7a%ple!eat$res $n er st$ y are presente in ta+le 1:

T 70' 1. 8%$- B$' - %9 S)$ () $' 7 F' ) $'

"1 >A DS A D DA9A@ES"2 RE> CA,I S": CBA E>S F CA A>S11 >EGEES F "> D-A>>S13 PU9PI @ P>A ,

3"P>A I @; E @I EERI @ FDESI@

31 C S,RUC,I 9A A@E9E ,

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,'e res$ltin( pro $ct !ro% t'e PD, isc$ssions is capt$re /it'in a risk re(ister aspresente in section ) !or +ot' cost an sc'e $le risk concerns. ote t'at t'e riskre(ister recor s t'e PD, s risk concerns; isc$ssions relate to t'ose concerns; anpotential i%pacts to t'e c$rrent cost an sc'e $le esti%ates. ,'e concerns an

isc$ssions are %eant to s$pport t'e tea% s ecisions relate to e ent likeli'oo ;i%pact; an t'e res$ltin( risk le els !or eac' risk e ent.

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5. KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Present key ass$%ptions in t'is section. Certain ass$%ptions %ay +e ictate +y t'ec$sto%er. t'er ass$%ptions %ay +e ass$%e +y t'e risk analyst or cost en(ineer.8ey ass$%ptions are t'ose t'at are %ost likely to si(ni!icantly e!!ect t'e eter%inations

an or esti%ates o! risk presente in t'e risk analysis. ,'e key ass$%ptions arei%portant to 'elp ens$re t'at project lea ers'ip an ot'er ecision %akers $n erstant'e steps; lo(ic; li%itations; an ecisions %a e in t'e risk analysis; as /ell as anyres$ltant li%itations on t'e $se o! o$tco%es an res$lts. 0Certain risks %ay 'a e +eene7cl$ e $e to USACE or PD, ($i ance J t'ese s'o$l +e %entione .

,'e !ollo/in( is an e7a%ple o! key ass$%ptions !or t'e risk analysis t'at co$l +ei enti!ie +y t'e PD, an risk analyst.

• A ress esi(n sta(e.• A ress con!i ence in esi(n scope.• A ress any critical incl$sions or e7cl$sions o! scope or risk.• A ress any s$nk or e7pen e costs not incl$ e /it'in t'e risk st$ y.• A ress li!e cycle costs; /'et'er incl$ e or e7cl$ e .• A ress operations an %aintenance; /'et'er incl$ e or e7cl$ e .• A ress %ajor !eat$res.• A ress con(ressional a$t'ori&ation.• A ress !$n in( pro!iles.• A ress contract ac $isition strate(y.•

A ress A,R stat$s: s$ccess!$lly co%plete; inco%plete; or $nsatis!actory.• A ress !eat$re cost acco$nts.• A ress con!i ence an $ality o! cost esti%ates an project sc'e $les.• A ress t'e contin(ency con!i ence le el reco%%en e /it'in t'e report.• A ress /'ic' i%pact le els /ere st$ ie or applie /it'in t'e risk analysis.

,'ese relate to t'e 'i('; %o erate; or lo/ risk le el ratin(s 0(enerally; t'e'i(' an %o erate risk le els are st$ ie .

!. RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS

P$',' ) )' %$6 , 9'00 , ) 70',

+= $', + (0 + =t'e cost an sc'e $le risk analysis res$lts. In a ition tocontin(ency calc$lation res$lts; sensiti ity analyses pro i e ecision %akers /it' an$n erstan in( o! aria+ility an t'e key contri+$tors to t'e ca$se o! t'is aria+ility.


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!.1 R+,- R'=+,)'$

A risk re(ister is a tool co%%only $se in project plannin( an risk analysis an ser esas t'e +asis !or t'e risk st$ ies an Crystal all risk %o els. A s$%%ary risk re(istert'at incl$ es typical risk e ents st$ ie 0'i(' an %o erate le els s'o$l +e presente

in a ta+le in t'is section. ,'e risk re(ister re!lects t'e res$lts o! risk !actor i enti!icationan assess%ent; risk !actor $anti!ication; an contin(ency analysis. A %ore etailerisk re(ister /o$l +e pro i e in appen i7 A. ,'e etaile risk re(isters o! appen i7 Aincl$ e lo/ le el an $nrate risks; as /ell as a itional in!or%ation re(ar in( t'especi!ic nat$re an i%pacts o! eac' risk.

It is i%portant to note t'at a risk re(ister can +e an e!!ecti e tool !or %ana(in( i enti!ierisks t'ro$('o$t t'e project li!e cycle. As s$c'; it is (enerally reco%%en e t'at riskre(isters +e $p ate as t'e esi(ns; cost esti%ates; an sc'e $le are !$rt'er re!ine ;especially on lar(e projects /it' e7ten e sc'e $les. Reco%%en e $ses o! t'e riskre(ister (oin( !or/ar incl$ e:

• Doc$%entin( risk %iti(ation strate(ies +ein( p$rs$e in response to t'ei enti!ie risks an t'eir assess%ent in ter%s o! pro+a+ility an i%pact.

• Pro i in( project sponsors; stake'ol ers; an lea ers'ip %ana(e%ent /it' aoc$%ente !ra%e/ork !ro% /'ic' risk stat$s can +e reporte in t'e conte7t

o! project controls.• Co%%$nicatin( risk %ana(e%ent iss$es.• Pro i in( a %ec'anis% !or elicitin( risk analysis !ee +ack an project control

inp$t.• I enti!yin( risk trans!er; eli%ination; or %iti(ation actions re $ire !or

i%ple%entation o! risk %ana(e%ent plans.

In si%ple ter%s; a correlation is a epen ency t'at e7ists +et/een t/o risks an %ay+e irect or in irect. An in irect correlation is one in /'ic' lar(e al$es o! one risk areassociate /it' s%all al$es o! t'e ot'er. In irect correlations 'a e correlationcoe!!icients +et/een an *1. A irect correlation is one in /'ic' lar(e al$es o! onerisk are associate /it' lar(e al$es o! t'e ot'er. Direct correlations 'a e correlationcoe!!icients +et/een an 1.

Correlations are i%portant to $n erstan t'e lo(ic $se in t'e risk analyses. ,'e%at'e%atical correlations $se in t'e Monte Carlo si%$lations are as !ollo/s:

• Present any risk e ent correlations; a ressin( t'eir relations'ips.• Present t'e !inal risk re(ister or t'e con ense ersion. At a %ini%$%

incl$ e t'ose risk e ents st$ ie 0an appen i7 can incl$ e t'e co%plete riskre(ister :

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Risk e ent i enti!yin( n$%+er.Risk or opport$nity e ent.PD, concerns.PD, isc$ssions.Project cost likeli'oo ; i%pact; an risk le el.Project sc'e $le likeli'oo ; i%pact; an risk le el;

Insert ta+le containin( a con ense risk re(ister ta+le.

!.2 C%,) R+,- A 0 ,+, ? C%,) C% )+ =' ( R', 0),

Pro i e a cost contin(ency narrati e presentation o! t'e res$lts !ollo/e +y ta+lespresente !ro% t'e Crystal all reports epictin( t'e:

• Cost sensiti ity c'art.• Con!i ence ta+les in 1 percent incre%ents o! con!i ence associate /it'

ollars.• Con!i ence c$r es relations'ip o! percent con!i ence /it' contin(encies in

ollars 0+$il !ro% con!i ence ta+les .

9ake note t'at t'ese res$lts re!lect only t'ose contin(encies esta+lis'e !ro% t'e costrisk analysis.

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%ont's.

. MAJOR FINDINGS/OBSERVATIONS

Present t'e %ajor !in in(s an o+ser ations !or +ot' t'e cost an sc'e $le risk

analysis. It is +ene!icial to re!er +ack to t'e key ass$%ptions an 'o/ t'ey relate to t'e!in in(s an o+ser ations. Present t'e total cost s$%%ary at 1 percent con!i enceinter als $nless ot'er/ise irecte . Pro i e a s$%%ary o! si(ni!icant risk analysisres$lts in t'is section; /'ic' 'a e +een i enti!ie in t'e prece in( sections o! t'e report.Risk analysis res$lts are inten e to pro i e project lea ers'ip /it' contin(encyin!or%ation !or sc'e $lin(; +$ (etin(; an project control p$rposes; as /ell as topro i e tools to s$pport ecision %akin( an risk %ana(e%ent as projects pro(resst'ro$(' plannin( an i%ple%entation. eca$se o! t'e potential !or $se o! risk analysisres$lts !or s$c' i erse p$rposes; t'is section also reiterates an 'i('li('ts i%portantsteps; lo(ic; key ass$%ptions; li%itations; an ecisions to 'elp ens$re t'at t'e riskanalysis res$lts are appropriately interprete . ,a+le 2 presents project contin(encies;/'ic' incl$ e +ase cost pl$s cost an sc'e $le contin(encies. "i($re 2 ill$strates t'etotal project cost risk analysis in con!i ence c$r e.

T 70' 2. S 6*0' P$%&'() C% )+ =' (+', @B ,' C%,) P0 , C%,) S(


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F+= $' 1. S 6*0' % P$%&'() C% + ' (' C $>',

#. MITIGATION RECOMMENDATIONS

Present key reco%%en ations t'at %ay assist in %iti(atin( risks. Present anyreco%%en ations !or opport$nities !or +ot' cost an sc'e $le.

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APPENDIX A

DETAILED RISK REGISTERS

@P$',' ) )

wellness report

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