welcome the metro phoenix housing market – 1q 2010 plus the forecast update
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Welcome The Metro Phoenix Housing Market – 1q 2010 plus the Forecast Update. Please make sure that you are connected to the audio portion of the program thru the phone number provided on the screen or thru your computer speakers If you need help call THE NUMBER TO THE RIGHT ON YOUR SCREEN . - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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WelcomeThe Metro Phoenix Housing Market – 1q 2010 plus the Forecast Update
THE METRO PHOENIX HOUSING MARKET – 1ST QUARTER 2010
RLBrownReports
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
Phoenix Market performance Phoenix Builder performance What dynamics changed during the quarter What to expect in the near-term What to expect in the longer term
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
1q 2010 HOUSING HOT SPOTS
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
1st q hot spots by permits
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
S1Q00
_TOT
S3Q00
_TOT
S1Q01
_TOT
S3Q01
_TOT
S1QO2_T
OT
S3Q02
_TOT
S1Q03
_TOT
S3Q03
_TOT
S1Q04
_TOT
S3Q04_
TOT
S1Q05
_TOT
S3Q05
_TOT
S1Q06
_TOT
S3Q06_
TOT
S1Q07
_TOT
S3Q07
_TOT
S1Q08
_TOT
S3Q08
_TOT
S1Q09
_T0T
S3Q09
_TOT
S1Q10
_TOT
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
QUARTERLY NEW HOME CLOSING TRACK - 2000-2010
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
S1Q00
_TOT
S1Q01
_TOT
S1QO2_T
OT
S1Q03
_TOT
S1Q04
_TOT
S1Q05_
TOT
S1Q06
_TOT
S1Q07
_TOT
S1Q08
_TOT
S1Q09
_T0T
S1Q10
_TOT
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1ST QTR PHOENIX CLOSING COMPARISON
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
BUILD
ER
P2Q00_
TOT
P4Q00
_TOT
P2Q01
_TOT
P4Q01
_TOT
P2Q02_
TOT
P4QO2_T
OT
P2Q03
_TOT
P4Q03
_TOT
P2Q04
_TOT
P4Q04_
TOT
P2Q05
_TOT
P4Q05
_TOT
P2Q06
_TOT
P4Q06
_TOT
P2Q07_
TOT
P4Q07
_TOT
P2Q08
_TOT
P4Q08
_TOT
P2Q09
_TOT
P4Q09_
TOT
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000QUARTERLY NEW HOME PERMIT TRACK - 2000-
2010
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
P1Q00_
TOT
P1Q01
_TOT
P1Q02
_TOT
P1Q03
_TOT
P1Q04
_TOT
P1Q05
_TOT
P1Q06
_TOT
P1Q07_
TOT
P1Q08
_TOT
P1Q09_
T0T
P1Q10
_TOT
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1ST QUARTER METRO PHOENIX PERMIT COMPARISON
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
CENTRAL
MG
NORTH
NW
PIEAST
PIWEST
SDL
SW
TEMPE/CHAN
7
823
116
330
194
154
81
551
104
26
605
86
278
114
118
135
376
89
1ST QTR HOUSING VELOCITY BY AREA
COEYTD PMTSYTD
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
$900+; 42; 2% $750-900; 4; 0%$600-750; 34; 2%$400-600; 103; 6%
$300-400; 247; 14%
$250-300; 240; 13%
$195-250; 405; 22%
$165-195; 294; 16%
$130-165; 311; 17%
$100-130, 143
$80-100; 3; 0%<$80; 1; 0%
CLOS-INGS BY PRICE RANGE
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
BEST SELLINGBY PRICE RANGE
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
900 1,150 1,400 1,650 1,900 2,150 2,400 2,650 2,900 3,150 3,400 3,650 3,900 4,150 4,400 4,650$85,000
$185,000
$285,000
$385,000
$485,000
$585,000
$685,000
$785,000
$885,000
$985,000
1Q 2010 BEST SELLING SUBDIVISIONS - PRODUCT POSITIONING PREPARED WITH MAGIC
THE RESEARCH DEPARTMENT ON YOUR DESKTOP (C)
HIGHLAND HOMESHIGLEY PARK/HIGHLAND
BLANDFORD HOMESTUSCANY VILLAS @ PAINTED MTN (BH)
STARPOINTEARTESIA
PULTE HOMES/DEL WEBBSUN CITY FESTIVAL
PULTE HOMES/DEL WEBBSUN CITY ANTHEM @ MERRILL RANCH
K HOVNANIANWILLOWS (GW)
ROBSON COMMUNITIESPALM VALLEY/PEBBLECREEK
SHEA HOMESVISTANCIA/TRILOGY
FULTON HOMESIRONWOOD CROSSING 1/PARADISE
FULTON HOMESFREEMAN FARMS 2-1/CLASSICS & CARIBBEAN
SHEA HOMESJOHNSON FARMS 1/TRILOGY ENCANTERRA
KB HOMEMUIRFIELD VILLAGE CONDOS
LENNAR HOMESSTETSON VALLEY/HORIZON
FULTON HOMESIRONWOOD CROSSING 1/MEDITERRANEAN
ASHTON WOODS HOMESLAKEVIEW TRLS @ MORRISON RCH/PECAN GROVES
House Sqft.
Base
Hou
se P
rice
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
PRODUCT POSITIONING – BEST PERMITS 1Q 2010
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
TOP 10 BUILDERS CLOSINGSDR HORTON 142FULTON HOMES 134PULTE HOMES 132TAYLOR MORRISON 108SHEA HOMES 103MERITAGE HOMES 98PULTE/DEL WEBB 97LENNAR HOMES 73BLANDFORD HOMES 72BEAZER HOMES 56
81 BUILDERS ACTIVE – 50 BUILDERS WITH <3 CLOSINGS
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
BUILDER 1Q PERMITS
D R HORTON 330RICHMOND AMERICAN 209MERITAGE HOMES 137PULTE HOMES 132SHEA HOMES 125BLANDFORD HOMES 113FULTON HOMES 112TAYLOR MORRISON 102PULTE HOMES/DEL WEBB 99KB HOME 92
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
Jan-04Jul
-04Jan
-05Jul-05
Jan-06Jul
-06Jan
-07Jul-07
Jan-08Jul
-08Jan
-09Jul-09
Jan-10
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,000
Resale Housing Activity
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
MEDIAN PRICE NEW VS RESALE
MED NEW PRICE MED RES PRICE
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
Jan-04
Apr-0
4Jul-
04Oct-
04Jan
-05Ap
r-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-0
6Jul-
06Oct-
06Jan
-07Ap
r-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-0
8Jul-
08Oct-
08Jan
-09Ap
r-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
ESTIMATED NEW HOME INVENTORY TRACK
PERMITS BY MONTH CLOSINGS BY MONTH
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
Jan-04
May-04Se
p-04Jan
-05
May-05Se
p-05Jan
-06
May-06Se
p-06Jan
-07
May-07Se
p-07Jan
-08
May-08Se
p-08Jan
-09
May-09Se
p-09Jan
-100
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000ESTIMATED NEW HOME INVENTORY TRACK
PERMITS BY MONTH CLOSINGS BY MONTH
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
CHANGING MARKET DYNAMICS….
THE CHANGING FACE OF FORECLOSURES BAILOUT PLANS CREDIT AND INTEREST RATES LOT INVENTORIES AND BUILDER FINANCING BANK FAILURES AND CRE DEFAULTS CONSUMER SPENDING AND CONFIDENCE AN IMPROVING ECONOMY
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
Our near-term forecast Hype and reality collide The politics of the day and the impact on
housing – cash flow is King A regional leadership crisis
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
Our longer view of the market Jobs Foreclosure relief Credit The lure of the West
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
The ongoing search for new customers ….
Alternatives - Waiting for them to show up
Or Capturing the home buyers of the next 18 months … resale/short sales/reo sales VS the new home!
That takes a sound strategy ….
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
New Home Closings by Transaction is Now Available! Call Greg for Details – 480.614.0211
The Metro Phoenix housing market – 1st quarter 2010
Thanks for joining us and for using our housing market data and analysis.
Call us with your questions and your needs!
rl brown and greg burger480-614-0211
[email protected] www.rlbrownreports.com