welcome delegates dr. patrick hofer-noser cto meyer burger technologies ag icore 2010 renewables for...

27
Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Upload: gisilbert-westerhaus

Post on 05-Apr-2015

104 views

Category:

Documents


2 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Welcome delegatesDr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG

ICORE 2010Renewables for Inclusive Growth

Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Page 2: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

2

“I had a dream.. “

Page 3: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

3

“We lived the dream.. “

Page 4: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

4

Page 5: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

5

Page 6: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

6

Environmentally friendly technologiesfor the next industrial revolution

1. Revolution:

- Steam engines

- Weaving machines

- Railroads

- Iron, Coal

- Telegraph

2. Revolution:

- Combustion engine

- Electric motor

- Oil

- Telephone

- Chemicals

3. Revolution:

- Assembly lines

- Airplanes

- Radio / TV

- Automation

- Nuclear power

4. Revolution:

- Computer

- Internet

- Mobility

- Gene technology

- Microtechnology

5. Revolution:- Clean-Technology- Renewable Energy- Sustainability

Page 7: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

7

Solar Energy with the biggest Potential

Photovoltaics Geothermal Wind Biomass Hydropower plant

120’000 / 6001) 12 / ?1)

Source: Energie Trialog Schweiz 2009, “Energie-Strategie 2050”

Compared with other renewable energies, Solar (photovoltaics) has the biggest potential to cover the worldwide increased energy demand

1) 2006 / 2060 in TWh/year

50 / 21) 12 / 51) 5 / 21)

Page 8: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

8

Economic facts about Cleantech

Source: Masterplan Cleantech, Bundesamt für Berufsbildung und Technologie BBT, 19.10.2010

Worldwide 2008 2020 Trend

Market Potential Euro 630 billions Euro 2215 billions

Economical Impact 3.2 % 5.5 % to 6 %

Growth PotentialDepending on area of cleantech in the

range of 3 % to 8 %

Market Dynamics Renewable Energies and Material

Efficiency

Market Volume Clearly expected to be in Energy efficiency

Page 9: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

9

2008 2009 2013Module price 4.30 $/W 1.80 $/W < 1.00 $/W Si costs < 0.2 $/Wnon Si cost Wafer < 0.25 $/WWafer to module < 0.40 $/W

Total cost < 0.85 $/W

Costs/scale drive Photovoltaic market development

Source: Company estimates

4.30 $/W

1.80 $/W

1.00 $/W

Development Module price

Process, cost & market development driven

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

GW

Th

infilm

Inst

alle

d c

-M

od

ule

s

Scale, speed & volume driven

Grid Parity in the most important Markets

Page 10: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

10

The industry achieved a constantcost degresion in PV

Quelle: National Center for Photovoltaics,

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Page 11: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

11

Pillars for future successful Solar Energy

FinancesInvestment Loan

PoliticsEnergy-Mix

TechnologyGrid-Parity

fromSolar-Moduleto energy-carrier

Page 12: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

12

Costs of energy are important for wealth…

Conventional

Today

renewables

mix

Quelle: LBBW Studie 2010

Energy price conventional versus renewable

0,055

0,060

0,065

0,070

0,075

0,080

0,085

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

En

erg

y p

rice

/ €

/kW

h

Konventionelle Energie "Leitstudie"Erneuerbare Energie "Leitstudie"Konv. + EE "Leitstudie"

Page 13: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

13

The intelligent grid

Import/Export

400 V

10/20 kV

110/220/380 kV

Import of fossile and uranium

Smart Grid

Forcast production and consumption

400 V

10 / 20 kV

110 / 220 / 380 kV

Import/Export

Acutal situation in europe Integration of decentralised production

Page 14: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

14

sandPoly-silicon Ingots Solar CellWafer Module Installation

Lot of jobs can locally be created

Page 15: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

15

Installation in alpine region - La Lecherette (35.5 kWp)

pendent

(Ertrag 2009 1150kWh/kWp = 8 Swiss housholds)

Page 16: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

16

Page 17: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

17

Live your dreams

Page 18: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

18

Typical Balance Of System

AC Loads

Solar Inverter SMA

SMC 9000 TL

AC bus 230VOff-Grid Inverters SMA

Sunny Island

2 x SI5048

DC 48V

Battery main switchSMA Bat-fuse 03-250

Solar array42 x MBPV 200WStrings: 6 Modules per string: 7

Battery bank24 x 12 OPzS 2500Series: 24 Parallel: 1

Page 19: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

19

Organisation of business processes

SemiCon – Photovoltaics - Optics

Customer in India

Meyer Burger Technology

BergenMa

rke

ting

Market

MB Systems (India)

Neotronics

Wafering

Equipment & Services

Modules

Equipment& Services

Processes

Support &Consumables

Page 20: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

20

Beispiel für eine Solaranlage einer Bergregion - La Lecherette (35.5 kWp)

pendent

Ertrag 2009 1150kWh/kWp = 8 Haushalte

Page 21: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

21

Beispiel für eine Anlage im Unterland

15.5 kWp MEGASLATE - Anlage, Köniz

1100

9901070

1000 1030990 1000

0

200

400

600

800

1'000

1'200

1'400

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Betriebsjahr

Produzierte Energie in kWh / kWp

1'000

Photo Köniz

Page 22: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

22

Gestehungskosten Solarstrom (Beispiel MegaSlate®)

Amortisationsdauer 20 Jahre

Kalkulationszinsfuss: 3%

Unterhaltskosten: 5 Rp. / kWh

Höhe ü. M

Ertrag

Kosten kWh

(20 Jahre)

KEV Höhe (25Jahre) Indach

Kosten kWh

Flachdach*

540 m

1000kWh/kWp

0.65 CHF 0.607 CHF 0.48 CHF

1300 m

1150kWh/kWp

0.5 CHF 0.549 CHF 0.42 CHF

Die Anlagenkosten wurden zu Kosten Stand 1.1.2010 gerechnet. Vollkostenbasis inkl. Gerüst etc.*Günstigste Anlagenkonfiguration (kein Gerüst notwendig). Für solche Anlagen kommt ein reduzierter KEV Tarif (angebaut) zum tragen.

Page 23: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

23

Auch auf erhaltenswerten Gebäuden ist Solar möglich

MegaSlate® - Vorteilhaft bei Baubewilligungsverfahren (Art. 18a)

Page 24: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

24

Plusenergiehaus – Dach und Fassade wird zum Energieproduzent Einfamilienhaus Oberschan Installierte Leistung 11.2 kWp

Thermische Kollektorfläche 14 m2

Page 25: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

25

0.1

1

10

100

0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000

Cumulative Production [MWp]

PV

Mo

du

le P

rice

[20

04

$/W

p]

Die Industrie hat eine konsequente Kosten-senkung erreicht

Mit jeder Verdoppelung der Produktion sinken die Modulpreise um 20%

Quelle: National Center for Photovoltaics,

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

1976

2009

Page 26: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

26

Energiekosten sind für den Wohlstand relevant…

Erzeugungskosten erneuerbarer vs. konventionelle Energieträger

0,055

0,060

0,065

0,070

0,075

0,080

0,085

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Stro

mko

sten

/ €

/kW

h

Konventionelle Energie "Leitstudie" Erneuerbare Energie "Leitstudie" Konv. + EE "Leitstudie"

Kosten für konv. Energien

Heute

Kosten für EE Energien

Kosten für Mix

Quelle:LBBW Branchenanalyse Photovoltaik, S. 26, Februar 2010

Page 27: Welcome delegates Dr. Patrick Hofer-Noser CTO Meyer Burger Technologies AG ICORE 2010 Renewables for Inclusive Growth Challenges – Opportunities - Risks

Dec

embe

r 20

10, M

eyer

Bur

ger

Tech

nolo

gy L

td

27

Erzeugerkosten: Leitstudie vs. "2009 eingefroren"

0.055

0.060

0.065

0.070

0.075

0.080

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Str

om

kost

en /

€/k

Wh

Leitstudie 2009 EE eingefroren auf dem Stand von 2009

Heute mehr bezahlen, dafür ab ca. 2020 irreversibel günstigere Energie

Kosten für konv. Energien

Heute

Kosten für EE Energien

Kosten für Mix

Quelle:LBBW Branchenanalyse Photovoltaik, S. 26, Februar 2010