Welcome

Bay Area Regional Economic Vitality ConversationJune 11, 2004

Made possible through generous support from Pacific Gas and Electric Company

Background for Bay AreaBackground for Bay AreaEconomic Vitality ConversationEconomic Vitality Conversation

June 11, 2004June 11, 2004

Presented by: Stephen LevyPresented by: Stephen Levy

Increasing California's Competitive Edge

Reduce the Negatives Workers' Compensation Energy Costs Housing Costs Improving the Efficiency of Regulations

Increase the Positives Investing in Education Investing in Transportation Creating Great Communities to Live & Work

Where We Are NowWhere We Are Now

The Impact of Low U.S. Job The Impact of Low U.S. Job GrowthGrowth

United States Change in G.D.P.

U.S. Productivity Growth Rate

Job Gains 37 Months After Recession Starts

If Job Growth Matched Past 7 Recoveries

The United States Would Have 6.2 Million More Jobs

California Would Have 688,000 More Jobs

Where We Are NowWhere We Are Now

California Job TrendsCalifornia Job Trends

Non-Farm Wage & Salary Jobs

Non-Farm Wage & Salary Jobs

Job Losses Concentrated in Manufacturing

A Decline in U.S. Manufacturing?

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

Jan-

75

Jan-

77

Jan-

79

Jan-

81

Jan-

83

Jan-

85

Jan-

87

Jan-

89

Jan-

91

Jan-

93

Jan-

95

Jan-

97

Jan-

99

Jan-

01

Jan-

03

% E

mp

loym

ent

in m

anu

fact

uri

ng

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

US

Man

ufa

ctu

rin

g O

utp

ut

Employment: A Victim of Productivity Gains & Industry Shifts to Capital Intensive Sectors

Where We Are NowWhere We Are Now

Bay AreaBay Area

California Economic Regions Show California Economic Regions Show Different TrendsDifferent Trends

Industries Matter for Regional GrowthIndustries Matter for Regional Growth

Growth in Non-Farm Jobs (Mar 01-Mar 04)

Bay Area Job Growth by Metro Area

The LA Economy: Stronger Than Payroll #’s

Rents: Change 01 Q1 – 03 Q4

Center City Off

Suburban Off Industrial Retail Apts

SACRAMENTO -2.5% -8.5% -4.8% 8.0% 6.3%SAN DIEGO -2.6% -10.1% 5.0% 5.6% 7.0%INLAND EMPIRE -4.4% 7.3% -3.1% -1.9% 14.8%LOS ANGELES -10.3% -4.9% -4.4% 1.4% 5.3%ORANGE COUNTY -14.6% -13.4% -9.6% -2.2% 1.4%National Average -20.5% -20.8% -9.9% -0.9% -4.5%OAKLAND -36.9% -28.8% -19.2% -5.1% -25.9%SAN JOSE -54.4% -62.3% -31.2% -11.3% -36.7%SAN FRANCISCO -59.7% -61.0% -25.5% -12.0% -31.2%

Manufacturing Job Losses

Manufacturing Jobs

Manufacturing Job Loss

Metro Area Manufacturing Job Losses

Nevada Manufacturing Job Growth

But Manufacturing is Not the But Manufacturing is Not the Major Part of the Bay Area's Major Part of the Bay Area's

Economic BaseEconomic Base

Bay Area Economic Base

376.8

217.8

208.1

192

165.4

117.1

108.8

40.1

0 100 200 300 400 500

Prof., Tech., Sci. & Mgmnt.Serv.

Whsle. Trade and Transp.

High Tech Manufacturing

Diversified Manufacturing

Basic Government

Basic Information Services

Entertainment and Tourism

Resource Based

(Thousands of Jobs in 2002)

Increasing California's Competitive Edge

Reduce the Negatives Workers' Compensation Energy Costs Housing Costs Improving the Efficiency of Regulations

Increase the Positives Investing in Education Investing in Transportation Creating Great Communities to Live & Work

QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?