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WEFE NEXUS in Developing Countries

Assessing the WEFE Nexus and finding optimal solutions

Cesar CARMONA-MORENO

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WEFE Nexus process and Modelling

Inventroy of current status

Developmentpriorities

UnderstandingEnergy balance

Understandingthe water

balance-quality

UnderstandingClimate

variability

UnderstandingFood security

UnderstandingEcosystems

Understanding the WEFE

interactions

Identification of collaboration and points of

interest

Scenarios

Strategic Framework

support

Dev. Measures

Nexus solutions

Evidence NEXUS assessment NEXUS Policy dialogueref. Position Paper on WEFE NEXUS and SDGs, 2019

identify available data (and tools)

already developed, and development priorities identified and in relation to

Nexus components

Supporting knowledge on the different themesUnderstanding interactions and feedback

Dialoguedevelopment of scenarios, engagement of experts and

stakeholdersidentification of Nexus Solutions

ModellingThematic modelling

Multi Objectives & Optimisation

DATA & Information

for modelling

• Hydro: SWAT / LISFLOOD• Agry: GISEPIC• Climate: SPI, L-Moments• Quality: SWAT, GREEN

• MOO methods: single objective, multi objective, water vs bioenergy, crop land allocation, crop management optimization, water demands assessment

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC114177/kjna29509enn_002.pdfhttps://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC114177/kjna29509enn_002.pdf

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eNexus toolWEFE NEXUS modelling challenge:

• Several existing models (but: simulation of specific WEFE components (water quantity, groundwater, dam, crop specific, energy, water quality)

• At different spatial and temporal scale

• Not specifically focused to resources sustainability assessment and optimal use

In the context of the NEXUS approach, the tool has been developed to

• Use established models as specific thematic support to increase the knowledge of the specific WEFE Nexus components and to identify the links across the Nexus focus on a thematic, identification of WEFE nexus specific issues in the region (several specific modules available in eNexus such as: Climate, Agry, Hydro, Microdams,….)

• Use opensource platforms, enhancing local and open data access (e-station, Postgress DB)

• To develop or adapt specific Nexus models specifically tailored to the case study, including the capability of: specific optimization modules to analysis nexus problems (with specific focus on Food security and self sufficiency, crop land management optimization, bioenergy and food security, water demands assessment

Schematic representation of the e-Nexus framework

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Case study: bioenergy assessment in the transboundary Senegal river

• Access to energy services is a priority for sustainable economic development in Africa, especially in rural areas, where access to energy for small and medium enterprises is difficult, inconsistent and often expensive.

• Agricultural residues and waste can be an important source of renewable energy, as they can be converted into heat and energy to support agriculture itself, farmers and households.

• Alternatives to fossil energy sources, reducing the carbon footprint, the country's dependency on oil and fossil fuels, the impact on natural resources (wood), are needed.

• An important aspect is to assess where and how many resources can realistically be made available, how these outputs will be affected by climate variability and change and what the benefit to other sectors is.

• The demand for fuelwood (mainly firewood in rural areas and charcoal in urban areas) is expected to increase steadily: total production in 2018 was about 26 Mm3 .

• This increasing production creates a worrying situation due to the resulting net increase in forest degradation: an average of about 40,000 ha in the period 2001-2018, which is equivalent to a 16% decrease in forest cover since 2000 for the upper river basin (elaboration of Hansen et al., 2013).

Bioenergy

PRODUCTION GROWTH RATE +14% 2000-2018

• rural communities produce agricultural residues and other types of biomass that could be converted to meet their electricity needs using biomass power plants

• In addition to providing rural communities with the capacity to be self-sufficient in electricity, bioenergy power generation system can also generate employment and other development opportunities for rural residents.

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In this context, an energy analysis was carried out to assess the availability of agricultural residues to help meet energy demand from a WEFE Nexus perspective

Main objectives

• Assessing the potential of biomass at the administrative level for electricity generation

• Estimating electricity demand at the administrative level

• Estimation of the quantities of residues required: on the basis of the minimum and optimum power of the installations, the needs of the population, other energy sources, etc.

• Analysis of the environmental impact of the introduction of these methods in reducing the use of wood and the link with deforestation problems

• WEFE Nexus MOO optimization of bioenergy productivity (E) vs food demand and food security (F) , livestock demand (F) , agricultural productivity (F), water availability (W) and environment (E)

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WEFE Nexus MOO optimization of bioenergy productivity

Analysis and results

• In the optimization process several objectives can be optimized simultaneously; this is a key capability of the approach, but it should be also pointed out that the concurrent use of more objective can make more complex the interpretation of the results

• The analysis of optimization consider the need to analysis the bioenergy production in a WEFE Nexus context. To this scope indicators, objectives and constraints have been selected:

Energy• Bio energy crop residues potential (max)• household energy demand (con / max)• Irrigation pumping energy demand (min)

Environment• Water demands (cons)• Fertilizer/pesticide use (min)• Crop land expansion (min/cons)• Forest (cons)

Water• Crop water demands (min)• Livestock demand (min)• Household demand (min)

Food• Household diet Calories (cons)• Diet habits demand (cons)• Food crop production (max)• Value crop production (max)

List of WEFE Nexus component and related objectives for the optimization of bioenergy

production in the Senegal river basin.

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WEFE Nexus MOO optimization of bioenergy productivity

Analysis and results

WEFE NEXUS DATA CROP RESIDUES BIOENERGY ESTIMATIONNEXUS Dialogue

• The aim of this analysis is to assess how local agricultural crop residues may potentially sustain local energy demand from several sectors, but specifically from household energy demand and irrigation energy demand for water pumping and movement.

• This assessment requires the consideration of different objectives that can be contrasting and difficult to be balanced (Energy, Water, Food production, Livestock demands, cropland expansion, etc.)

• We need to deal with the following issues:

(1) multiple crop specific residues productivity (2) multiple crop specific residues energy capacity (3) limited resources for crop management improvement (such as fertilizers and irrigation) (4) variable household food and energy demands (5) variable livestock food and water demands

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WEFE Nexus MOO optimization of bioenergy productivity

Analysis and results

Population energy demand (Mwh) - 2016

(Source: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/energystats/dataPortal/)

𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐷𝐷𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼 = 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝐸𝐸𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 ∗ 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 ∗ IRRfrac ∗ WatReq ∗ 106

Irrigation energy demand (Mwh)

Population FOOD crop specific demand -2016RICE food requirements in tons(year)

MAIZE food requirements in tons(year)

Livestock FORAGE crop specific demand and WATER demand - 2016

Food demands for households, Energy demand, Livestock demands, irrigation demand are assessed at subregional level

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/energystats/dataPortal/

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WEFE Nexus MOO optimization of bioenergy productivity

Analysis and results

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a) b)

• The figure shows the Pareto frontier, formed by the compromise of effective strategies between (i) the selected WEFE targets and (ii) the capacity to produce bioenergy from crop residues

• These two solutions (1,3) are the opposite ones (top left and bottom right) in the Pareto maximizing one of the two optimized objectives. The solution corresponding to the current distribution of cultivated land (2, red square) is also shown to highlight the difference with the optimized solutions.

WEFE NEXUS Analysis for crop residues optimization of use among conflicting objectives

Examples of optimization presented in the form of optimal solutions (Pareto frontier) in a region of the Senegal River basin:

Single or group of regions can be target for the optimization (or the whole basin) and several objectives can be selectedHere 2 objectives at a time are selected:a) Focus on trade off analysis between Food security and BioEnergyb) Focus on trade off analysis between Water demands and BioEnergy.

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WEFE Nexus MOO optimization of bioenergy productivity

Analysis and results

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WEFE NEXUS Analysis for crop residues optimization of use among conflicting objectives

• the availability of cultivated land is quite high in relation to local food demand (e.g. the rice surplus is about 85%)

• This makes it possible to find various solutions to optimise the land area, while producing enough food.

• Indeed, if we look at the first set of Pareto (power vs. energy) optimisation solutions:

• a wide range of different solutions is possible; • rice cultivation is replaced because it maintains a minimum requirement

(8000 ha with current productivity), and is reduced to about 7% of cultivated land for the 2 extreme solutions.

• But it is mainly used for the energy solution (n. 1) (84% of the cultivated land), as it produces much more energy residues), while for the caloric solution (n. 2 in Pareto),

• The most widely used crop in this region would be cassava (for about 88% of the cultivated land) as this crop has the greatest potential to produce (due to higher yields) food calories.

• It is interesting to note that different optimisation scenarios basically lead to the same level of potential bioenergy production: about 140,000 MWh/an

Scenario Solution Description Unit Rice Mais Sorghum Millet Tubers Peanuts Cereals

Constraint Fixed

Food mimimum

areas constraint ha 8,040 534 21 32 5,581 834 484

Current Current cropland allocation ha 36,514 11,894 0 0 3,013 45,143 15,882

Current Current cropland allocation % 32.50% 10.60% 0.00% 0.00% 2.70% 40.10% 14.10%

FOOD vs Energy

Sol 1 (Max Energy)

cropland allocation ha 8,068 94,964 606 145 5,904 2,213 545

Sol 3 (Max Food)

cropland allocation ha 8,075 2,470 240 66 99,294 1,814 486

Sol 1 (Max Energy)

cropland allocation % 7.20% 84.50% 0.50% 0.10% 5.30% 2.00% 0.50%

Sol 3 (Max Food)

cropland allocation % 7.20% 2.20% 0.20% 0.10% 88.30% 1.60% 0.40%

l (

l d

Scenario Solution Bioenergy Water demand Pumping energy Food Kcal

production

MWh/yr m3/yr MWh/yr Kcal/yr

Current Current 114,458 953 84,321 368,364,463

FOOD vs Energy

Sol 1 (Max Energy) 143,916 916 81,087 416,103,973 Sol 3 (Max Food) 43,972 545 48,201 902,472,089 Sol 1 vs Current 25.7% -3.9% -3.8% 13.0% Sol 3 vs Current -61.6% -42.8% -42.8% 145.0%

OPTIMAL CROP LAND ALLOCATIONS SOLUTIONS

WATER vs Energy

Sol 1 (Max Energy) 141,834 895 79,195 412,504,106 Sol 3 (Min Water dem.) 56,882 556 49,180 308,741,626

Sol 1 vs Current 23.9% -6.1% -6.1% 12.0% Sol 3 vs Current -50.3% -41.7% -41.7% -16.2%

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Thank you

© European Union 2020

Unless otherwise noted the reuse of this presentation is authorised under the CC BY 4.0 license. For any use or reproduction of elements that are not owned by the EU, permission may need to be sought directly from the respective right holders.

Contact: Cesar CARMONA-MORENOcesar.carmona-moreno@ec.europa.eu

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

WEFE NEXUS in �Developing Countries��WEFE Nexus process and Modelling eNexus toolCase study: bioenergy assessment in the transboundary Senegal riverSlide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Thank you