weekly weather briefing national weather service – buffalo ny · daytime temps in the mid 30s to...

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Weekly Weather Briefing National Weather Service – Buffalo NY

Week of March 10 - 16

Applies to NWS Buffalo Area of Responsibility Only

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National Weather Service - Buffalo NY http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Buffalo.gov

@NWSBuffalo on Twitter

This Week’s Impacts

2

MID – WEEK WINTER STORM Late Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night – potential for 7 to 12 inches

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY COLD TEMPERATURES Lake effect snow develop to the southeast of the lakes LAKE EFFECT SNOWS The cold air crossing the warm waters of the Great Lakes will result in

limited localized lake effect snow throughout the week

FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY Low pressure moving across the Great Lakes is forecast to bring a

light snowfall to the region

3/10/2014




Weather Synopsis – Today through Tuesday

3

A couple of weak shortwaves cross the region through this period

Precipitation Light rain/snows showers are expected

through early Tuesday morning

Temperatures Daytime temps in the mid 30s to low

40s with overnight temps around 32

Impacts Precipitation will generally be light in

nature however with temperatures in the lower 30s tonight untreated roads may become slick – especially across the north country

3/10/2014

Tonight’s (2AM) Forecast Surface Map




Weather Synopsis – Tuesday Night

4

A weak cold front pushes south into the area as low pressure continues to deepen over the mid-Mississippi Valley

Precipitation Light snow is expected to overspread the

region from southwest to northeast Accumulations generally only an inch or

two overnight

Temperature Overnight lows in the upper 20s – mid 20

east of Lake Ontario

3/10/2014

Tuesday Evening’s (8PM) Forecast Surface Map




Weather Synopsis – Wednesday / Wednesday Night

5

Low pressure tracks from the lower Ohio Valley to south of Long Island by evening

Precipitation Snow continues across the region

Snow becomes moderate to heavy Highest amounts across the southern tier and

Finger Lakes Initially snow amounts will be less along the south

shore of Lake Ontario but lake enhancement later Wednesday/Wednesday night will make up for it

Temperature Temperatures in the mid to upper 20s Wednesday

will plummet into the single digits by Wednesday Night

3/10/2014

Wednesday Morning’s (8AM) Forecast Surface Map




Snowfall Forecast

Wednesday

6

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Snowfall Forecast

Wednesday

Night

7

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Storm Snowfall Forecast

Tuesday Night

through Wednesday

Night

8

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Weather Synopsis – Thursday / Thursday Night

9

As the low moves off the coast a northerly flow will bring cold air over the region

Precipitation Cold air crossing Lake Ontario will result

in lake effect snow showers south of the lake

Temperatures Daytimes highs will struggle to reach the

mid teens across much of the area with lower teens across the higher terrain

3/10/2014

Thursday Morning’s (8AM) Forecast Surface Map




Weather Synopsis – Weekend Outlook

10

Low pressure approaches and crosses the Great Lakes region during the first part of the weekend.

Precipitation Chance of light snow

Temperature Return to normal levels

3/10/2014

Friday Morning’s (8AM) Forecast Surface Map




Temperatures

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Highs: Today: Low 40s but Mid 30s North Country Tuesday: Low to Mid 40s but Upper 30s North Country Wednesday: Mid to Upper 20s in the morning, falling into teens by

evening Thursday: In the teens Friday and Saturday: Mid to Upper 30s Sunday: Around 30

Overnight Lows: Tonight: Low to Mid 30s Tuesday Night: Mid to Upper 20s Wednesday Night and Thursday Night: in the single digits Friday Night: Upper 20s to Low 30 Saturday Night: Upper teens to low 20s

3/10/2014

NOTE: Areas near and downwind of the Lakes will be moderated by the water

temperatures




Modeled Snow Depth – 10 MAR 2014

12

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Modeled Snow Water Equivalent – 10 MAR 2014

13

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Modeled Snow Water Equivalent – 10 MAR 2014

14

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Great Lakes Ice Cover

15

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16

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17

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Precipitation Totals – Month to Date Through March 9, 2014

18

3/10/2014

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/watersupply.shtml




19

3/10/2014

Precipitation Departure – Month to Date Through March 9, 2014

Data Missing from Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and parts of Allegany

County




Stats and Climatology (through 03/09)

20

Buffalo Rochester Watertown

Precipitation Month to Date – March 0.22” 0.12” 0.09”

Departure from Normal -0.60” -0.58” -0.59”

Annual (Since January 1) 7.00” 3.74” 7.19”

Departure from Normal +0.51” -1.32” +1.63”

Snowfall Month to Date – March 2.6” 3.3

Departure from Normal -2.2” -3.0”

Season (Since September1) 106.8” 86.4”

Departure from Normal +23.2” +1.2”

Temperature Normal High Temperature (03/10) 40 40 38

Normal Low Temperature (03/10) 24 24 18

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Precipitation Totals – February 2014

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3/10/2014

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/watersupply.shtml




22

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Precipitation Departure – February 2014

Data Missing from Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and parts of Allegany

County




Stats and Climatology - February 2014

23

Buffalo Rochester Watertown Precipitation Monthly Total 3.62 2.39” 3.41”

Departure from Normal +1.13” -0.44” +1.19”

Snowfall Monthly Total 23.3 26.3”

Departure from Normal +6.0” +4.8”

Temperature Average High Temperature for the Month 26.5° 28.4° 27.3°

Departure from Normal -6.8° -5.7° -4.4°

Average Low Temperature for the Month 13.2° 14.1° 6.8°


Average Temperature for the Month 19.8° 21.3° 17.0°


Wind Average Wind Speed 11.4mph 10.3 mph 7.7 mph

Departure from Normal -1.5mph -1.1mph -2.3 mph

3/10/2014




General Reminders

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This briefing is prepared each Monday. Weather forecasts change as the week progresses. Always monitor the systems as they develop through the week.

Emergency managers, government partners and media can log onto to NWSChat Live (https://nwschat.weather.gov/live) to get critical warning decision expertise from the forecasters and exchange real-time information

The latest Area Forecast Discussion can be found at: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php?product=BUFAFDBUF&versions=1

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https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Buffalo.gov @NWSBUFFALO or #BUFWX

3/10/2014


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weekly weather briefing national weather service – buffalo ny · daytime temps in the mid 30s to...

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