weekly technical -...

Weekly Technical

August 28, 2017

Research Analysts

Dharmesh Shah [email protected]

Nitin Kunte, CMT [email protected]

Dipesh Dagha [email protected]

Pabitro Mukherjee [email protected]

Vinayak Parmar [email protected]

2

Equity benchmarks settled marginally higher after recovering all losses incurred at the start of a truncated week. The Sensex ended at 31596, up 71 points while the

Nifty was up by 19 points to 9857. Broader markets also settled marginally higher as the BSE midcap and small cap indices rose 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.

The weekly price action resulted in a Long Legged Doji candle comprising large lower shadow that highlights persistent demand at the key value area of 9700 for

third consecutive week precisely in line with our expectations. As highlighted in the earlier edition, the market is undergoing time wise consolidation while forming a

higher base above the key support of 9700 whereas the focus has turned to stock specific action. In the entire up move since January 2017, intermediate corrective

phases have not lasted more than three to four weeks post, while the index has resumed uptrend. Based on this tendency, we expect the current consolidation to

conclude over the coming week whereby it provides a good opportunity to enter quality stocks in a staggered manner. In the upcoming week, we expect the index

to oscillate between the broad range of 9700 and 9950. A decisive close above 9950 will trigger short covering and open further positive options, going forward.

Healthy consolidation within structural uptrend provides opportunity…

• The Nifty behaved precisely in line with our expectations and extended the range

bound consolidation in last week’s trade. The market seems to be absorbing

adverse news flows like geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula, Infosys

boardroom tussle and FII outflows while defending its key value area of 9700

over the last three weeks. It highlights the underlying strength and validates the

presence of strong demand at elevated levels. We believe the current

consolidation is part of the larger degree uptrend. Therefore, one should

concentrate on stock specific action and ignore the noise

• The key observation over last couple of weeks is that broader markets

represented by midcap and small cap indices have attracted demand after the

initial slump towards their May 2017 lows. The heavily beaten down pharma

space has also seen some buying interest emerge after approaching lower band

of long term falling channel. Meanwhile, leading sectors like metal and FMCG

have remained resilient during the recent corrective phase. Even the sectoral

heavyweight banking index has seen a healthy breather. All in all, sectoral

standing also corroborates the overall robust price structure

• Time wise, the down move from life-time high of 10137 to 9685 occurred in eight

sessions whereas the index has taken eight sessions so far to retrace about

61.8% of fall. Even to a smaller degree, pullback from 9685 to 9947, taking three

sessions, has been retraced by 80% in five sessions. Lack of faster retracement

in either direction highlights the range bound scenario and indicates continuance

of ongoing consolidation between 9700 and 9950 in the coming week. We do not

expect the price wise correction to extend beyond the 9700 region in the present

scenario as it is the confluence of lower band of expending channel comprising

up move since April 2017 till date and previous breakout area

• Among oscillators, the 14 week RSI has approached its bull market support zone

of 55 to 60 readings, which would lead to supportive efforts in the coming weeks

• Stock: Buy Asian Granito in range of | 420- 430, Target | 476 , Stop loss | 398

• Sectors: We expect banking, FMCG and metal sectors to perform well going

forward. The pharma and It sector is likely to enter consolidation in the short

term.

14 week RSI has approached its bull market support zone of 55-60 readings

Resistance: 9950, 10050

Support: 9780, 9700

10137

9709

3

Nifty Bank Futures (24330): Base formation at key value area provides opportunity…

• The Nifty Bank index recovered from an early slump to end the week on a high

note led by private banking heavyweights while select PSU banking stocks

also garnered supportive efforts at lower levels. The near month Nifty Bank

futures settled at 24330 up 233 points or 0.97% for the week

• The weekly price action formed a bull candle, which maintained a lower high

lower low compared to the previous session. However, the long lower shadow

highlights demand emerging at the key value area of 23900 region. Follow

through strength and close above the upper band of last two weeks

consolidation range above 24500 will signal conclusion of current corrective

phase and indicate resumption of upward momentum. Failure to do so, will

lead to extension of the ongoing sideways consolidation in the coming weeks

• The Nifty Bank index behaved precisely in line with our expectations as it

attracted strong demand after approaching its key value zone place between

the 23700-23900 region being the confluence of following:

Lower band of expanding channel in place since March 2017 is at 24000

61.8% retracement of the June-August up move is placed at 23870

Bullish gap area formed on July 13, 2017 is between 23810 -23721

Breakout area of June 2017 consolidation is at 23700 region

• Going forward, we expect the index to extend the ongoing consolidation and

oscillate between the broad range of 23700 and 24500 amid stock specific

action. The immediate hurdle for the index is placed around 24500 region as it

is the confluence of 61.8% retracement of previous weeks decline and value of

overhead falling trendline joining recent lower highs. A decisive close above

the 24500 will signal conclusion of the current corrective phase and open up

further positive options going forward. We believe the overall price structure

remains positive and the current breather forms part of the larger degree

uptrend. Therefore, it should be used as incremental buying opportunity to

enter into quality stocks in a staggered manner

• Among oscillators, the 14 week RSI is seen flattening out after it slipped below

its previous swing low of 70 reading while price is seen holding its key support

base. It indicates a pause in the momentum and suggests continuance of the

secondary consolidation over the coming weeks

CNX Bank Nifty Weekly Bar Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Resistance: 24500, 24750

Support: 24110, 23900

RSI has flattened out after moving below its previous low

25260

• During the previous week, the share price of Asian

Granito India has rebounded from near the crucial

support area of | 390-410 region as it was the

confluence of following technical parameters :

The 61.8% retracement of the previous rally

from | 334 to | 500 is placed around | 395

The lower band of the medium term rising

channel support joining the lows since

November 2016 is placed around | 400 region

The rising 21 weeks EMA, which as acted as

major support for the stock in CY17 is also

placed around | 400 levels

• The stock continues to form a higher peak and

higher trough on the weekly chart highlighting

strength and the overall positive price structure

• The volume behaviour support continuance of the

uptrend as the up move in the previous week from

the support level was on the back of strong volume

of almost double of the 10 weeks average volume of

2.5 lakh share per week indicating larger

participation in the direction of the trend

• Among oscillators, the weekly stochastic has

generated a buy signal moving above its three

period’s average indicating reversal of the corrective

trend

• Based on the above technical observation, we

believe the corrective decline has approached

maturity and the stock is likely to retrace 80% of the

previous decline from | 500 to | 380 placed at | 476

levels in the short-term

CMP: | 434.75 Buying range: | 420.00-430.00 Target: | 476.00 Stop loss: | 398.00

Weekly Bar Chart

Weekly Pick: Asian Granito India (ASIGRA): Price rebounding from major support area...

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research * Call has been initiated on I Click to Gain on August 24, 2017 at 10:52 hrs

80% retracement of

previous decline @ 476

Weekly stochastic generated a buy signal thus validates the positive bias in price

176

305 334

396

380

Strong volume at the support area indicate larger

participation in direction of trend

Price rebounding from major support area with strong volume

signals reversal of the corrective trend and provides fresh entry

opportunity to ride the next up move in the stock

Price rebounding from near the support

area of | 400 being confluence of:

- 21 weeks EMA

- The lower band of the rising channel

- 61.8% retracement of previous up move

5

Deal Team – At Your ServiceTrend Scanner

Positive Trends

Negative Trends

Candlestick Pattern


Legend

Positive and Negative Trends:

The stocks listed in the positive and negative trends section above have been identified after running multiple technical queries based on combination of

various technical parameters applied on a group of NSE cash stocks. The query modules are designed to recognise stocks, which are either at attractive

technical entry levels based on overall price structure or resolving out of medium term consolidation. Consequently the query modules are also aimed at

identifying the stocks which are under performers or in established down trends and therefore may not be good bets from short to medium term perspective.

Candlestick patterns:

Candlestick formations on weekly time interval charts typically point towards the prevailing sentiment comprising the entire trading week and could prove as

an important tool for short term traders. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More

importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend. A more detailed description of Candlestick patterns and the way to

understand them is listed at the end of the report

Scrip Name Close 50 days EMA 100 days EMA Delivery % 5 days Averge

Bosch 21,676.0 23,396.0 23,308.0 35.60

BHEL 127.0 138.0 143.0 34.50

Bullish Candlestick Formations Bearish Candlestick Formations

Scrip Name Pattern name LTP Scrip Name Pattern name LTP

Wockhardt Engulfing 608.3 Crompton Evening Star 214.0

Max India Piercing Line 142.0 Bosch Continuation 21676.3

Bharti Airtel Continuation 433.0 Exide India Continuation 202.6

HPCL Continuation 466.2 BHEL Continuation 127.0

Indusind Bank Continuation 1667.7 Dabur Engulfing 300.1

JSW Steel Continuation 246.5

State Bank of India Hammer 280.3

Tata Steel Continuation 639.0

Scrip Name Close 50 days EMA 100 days EMA Delivery % 5 days Averge

Maruti 7,612.9 7,457.0 7,117.0 39.40

Shipping Corporation 94.7 84.0 80.0 42.20

Colgate Palmolive 1,093.8 1,067.0 1,044.0 59.00

HEG 523.4 425.0 366.0 60.20

6

Market Activity


Global Markets Domestic Sectoral Indices Performance

Global Currencies, Commodities & Bond Yields

Nifty Gainers / Losers for the week (%)

INDICES Current 1Wk 1M 3M

Sensex 31596.06 0.2 -2.9 4.0

Nifty 9857.05 0.2 -2.2 5.0

Auto 23548 -1.0 -3.9 2.0

Banking 27454.2 1.0 -3.4 5.4

Capital goods 17161.36 -0.3 -3.7 -2.4

Cons durables 17419.01 -1.6 7.7 13.5

FMCG 10018.53 -0.6 -0.5 2.2

Healthcare 13226.29 2.2 -10.5 -9.3

IT 10021.64 -0.6 -4.6 -1.8

Metal 13054.54 0.9 4.4 14.5

Oil & gas 14861.52 0.5 4.9 8.9

Power 2244.21 -1.8 -2.5 0.7

Realty 2094.1 0.2 -4.4 2.3

BSE 500 13617.08 0.2 -0.9 5.4

BSE midcap 15252.10 0.3 -3.0 3.2

BSE small cap 15646.60 0.2 -4.4 2.2

5.8 5.4

3.9 3.4

-2.6 -2.9 -2.9 -3.0

-11.6

-7.6

-3.6

0.4

4.4

8.4

LU

PIN

DR

RED

DY

AU

RO

PH

AR

MA

AX

ISB

AN

K

HER

OM

OTO

CO

INFR

ATEL

BA

JA

J-A

UTO

BA

NKB

AR

OD

A

7,401.5

DAX Index

UKX Index

0.0%

27,848.2

1.1%

3.0%

HSI Index

INDU Index

NKY Index

0.0%

19,729.7

0.6%

21,813.7 12,167.9

IBOV Index

3,331.5

71,073.7

3.4%

SHCOMP Index

1.9%

CAC Index

-0.2%

5,104.3

0.00

-3.1 bps

2.17

-2.6 bps

EURO 10 Year JPY 10 Year

India 10 year US 10 Year6.54

2.9 bps

0.38

-3.5 bps

Copper (tonne)6,648.50

0.7% 3.0%

Brent Crude/barrel52.51

Gold/ounce1,294.56

Silver (ounce)17.1

-0.3% 0.9%

Japanese Yen109.13

Swiss Franc0.96

-0.1% -1.0%

Euro1.19

British Pound1.29

1.4% 0.1%

Rupee (|)64.03

Dollar Index92.49

0.2% -1.0%

77

Deal Team – At Your ServiceMarket Activity


Institutional flow trends of last 12 months

Weekly market breadth trends

12612

9071

10443

-4306

-18244

-8176

-1177

9902

30906

2394

7711

3617

5161

-14150

248

698

1521

8106

9900

6547

4777

-23

2368

8916

6725

4873

8299

10828

19000.00

24000.00

29000.00

34000.00

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

July

'16

Aug'1

6

Sep'1

6

Oct'16

Nov'1

6

Dec'1

6

Jan'1

7

Feb'1

7

Mar'17

Apr'17

May'1

7

Jun'1

7

July

'17

Aug'1

7

Months

FII DII Sensex

50%

60%

50%

51%

47%

44%

35%

59%

49%

50%

40%

50%

49%

53%

56%

65%

41%

51%

3092231361

3202132029

32310 3232531214

31525 31596

20000

21500

23000

24500

26000

27500

29000

30500

32000

33500

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

30-Jun-17 7-Jul-17 14-Jul-17 21-Jul-17 28-Jul-17 4-Aug-17 11-Aug-17 18-Aug-17 25-Aug-17

Percentage

Week Ended

Advance % Decline % Sensex

88

Deal Team – At Your ServiceDow Jones (21813): Index to extend consolidation...

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped its two

week’s losing streak ahead of key meeting of central

bankers even as key Trump aides left the

administration triggering concerns over policy

execution. The Dow Jones Industrial average settled

higher by 139 points or 0.64% at 21813

• The weekly price action formed a counter attack bull

candle, which pierced through last week’s bear

candle by more than 50% indicating buying support

at lower end. It, however, carries lower high-low

maintaining corrective bias. Still, it is resisting at

trend line connecting November 2016 – May 2017

lows

• The index is seen under profit booking after hitting

high of 22179. On the downside, the key support is

seen at 21500 as it is 38.2% retracement of May-

August 2017 rally (20554-22179)

• In coming weeks, the index is likely to enter a

consolidation phase in the range of 22250-21500

after the recent strong rally

• The weekly stochastic oscillator is reacting lower

from the overbought territory and supports further

consolidation

• For the coming week, the DJIA has support at

21630, 21500 while resistance is at 22050, 22180

Dow Jones Industrials - Weekly Bar Chart


18668

Index likely to enter consolidation in range of 21500-22250 in the

coming weeks after the recent strong up move

Weekly stochastic reacting lower from the overbought territory and is likely

to continue with its current corrective bias

17884

20554

21169Support

@ 21500

17063

22179

99

Deal Team – At Your ServiceGerman Dax (12167): Bias to remain positive above 11900...

• The German equity benchmark gained amid

softening geopolitical tensions and strong Euro.

Frankfurt Dax index closed flat settled at 12165, up

by just 2 points

• The weekly price action formed a high wave candle

with shadows on either side indicating intra week

volatility. Index continued to trade within last week’s

large bear candle’s range (12336-11934). It indicates

consolidation near support. Bias for the index,

however, remains negative unless it sustains above

last three week’s identical highs in the range of

12350

• As detailed in earlier editions, the index is seen in a

corrective mode after it breached 12500 in late

June. The key support for the index is placed near

11900 as it is the confluence of following technical

parameters :

The 38.2% retracement of November 2016 –

June 2017 rally (10174 – 12951)

The consolidation area of March-April 2017 is

also placed around 11900

• The sustained move above 12350 would indicate

conclusion of corrective phase and lead the index

towards 12600-12700 region as it is the high of July

2017 and the 61.8% retracement of the current

decline (12951-11993)

• The weekly stochastic oscillator has plunged to the

oversold territory with reading of 25 and is likely to

attract buying support near 11900 mark

• For the coming week, the Dax has support at 11900,

11720 while resistance is at 12340,12470

German Dax - Weekly Bar Chart


11893

10802

Weekly Stochastics seen bouncing off oversold readings

12951

10802

Index has major support at 11900 region :

-38.2% retracement

- Previous consolidation area

1010

Deal Team – At Your ServiceHang Seng (27848): Index likely to challenge 2015 highs...

• The Hang Seng extended gains ahead of a meeting

of key central bankers at Jackson Hole in a week

which saw Typhoon Hato lashing island country.

The Hang Seng settled higher by 801 points or

2.96% at 27848 for the week

• Weekly price action formed a strong bull candle in

follow through to last week’s inverted hammer as

index continued to form higher high-low sequence

indicating bullish trend

• The index registered fresh 52-week high after two

weeks of correction indicating continuation of

bullish trend. The key support for index in current

context is now being revised upwards at 26800

levels as it is the confluence of following technical

parameters :

The recent correction low at 26863

The 38.2% retracement of July-August 2017

rally (25199-27876)

• With last week’s rally, the index looks set to

challenge its May 2015 peak @ 28588 levels

• The weekly stochastic oscillator has eased out of

overbought territory and currently holding in the

positive terrain

• For the coming week, the Hang Seng has support at

27316, 26950 while resistance is at 28200, 28470

Hang Seng - Weekly Bar Chart


18279

Index likely to challenge May 2015 peak @ 28588

Weekly stochastic has generated a bearish crossover

below its three period’s average

24364

21489

Support

@ 26800

28588

23724

25199

1111

Deal Team – At Your ServiceRupee spot (64.03): Pullback amid oversold conditions...

• The rupee ended marginally higher after a choppy

trading week helped by weakness in the US dollar

overseas even as foreign investors continued to pull

out of domestic equities and bonds. The rupee

ended at 64.03, 12 bps higher for the week

• The price action resulted in a small bar, which

remained enclosed within the previous week’s high-

low range indicating non directional bias. US$INR

has been trading in a broad range of 63.50-65.10 for

past few months indicating consolidation after sharp

rally

• Structurally, the underlying trend for rupee

continues to remain strong as long as rupee trades

below 65 mark over medium term

• However, having achieved 50% retracement of

2014-17 rally (58.33 – 68.86) domestic currency may

take a breather while maintaining positive bias. A

sustained break below 63.50 would pave the way

for 62 levels in the short-term as it is the 61.8%

retracement of 2014-17 rally

• The weekly RSI is rebounding after posing positive

divergence against price and may lead to further

pullback efforts in coming weeks

• For coming week, US$INR support is at 63.85, 63.70

whereas resistances are at 64.30, 64.60

Weekly Bar Chart - US$INR


May 2014

@ 58.33

63.88

61.30

66.89

29 weeks

|5.55

32 weeks

| 5.59

64.70

68.7920 weeks

| 4.1

November 2016

@68.86

52-week

EMA

50% retracement

@ 63.60

1212

Deal Team – At Your ServiceGold ($1292): Marking time at upper band of trading range…

• Gold prices fluctuated between gains and losses in a

narrow range ahead of key speeches from central

bankers at the Jackson Hole Federal Reserve

gathering. The precious metal ended the week flat at

$1292

• The weekly price action resulted in a high wave

candle formed completely inside previous weeks

candle’s high/low range. It indicates pause in the

momentum amid consolidation at the upper band of

five month trading range. Structurally, bullion prices

have taken seven weeks to retrace preceding five

week fall. Lack of faster retracement of the last falling

segment highlights the overall consolidation bias and

therefore prices will be vulnerable to bouts of profit

booking at the upper band of five months trading

range placed around $1300 region

• Gold prices have approached the upper band of last

five months broader trading range of $1200 to $1300.

Prices have faced multiple headwinds at the upper

band of this range and reversed lower on every

occasion in last five months. We believe only a

decisive close above $1300 will open further upside

potential towards $1320-$1340 region. The 78.6%

retracement of the July to December 2016 fall ($1374

to $1123) placed around $1320 and multiple swing

highs of August and September 2016 placed around

$1340 make this the next major resistance zone for

bullion

• Among oscillators, the weekly RSI has turned

sideways after approaching the upper band of its

oscillation range of 40 and 60 level indicating

continuance of the overall range bound bias going

forward

Gold Weekly Candlestick Chart


RSI has turned sideways at upper band of its consolidation band of 40 to 60 readings.

1374

1338

1122

1297 1298

1313

Deal Team – At Your ServiceBrent crude ($52.21): Rudderless consolidation to continue…

• Crude oil prices traded choppy in a narrow range

before settling marginally lower after number of active

Number of US rigs drilling for oil fell by five to 763

rigs last week. For the week, Brent crude prices

settled at $52.21 down by 0.97%

• The price action resulted in a high wave candle

formed completely inside previous weeks high/low

range indicating narrow range bound trade amid lack

of directional bias. Going forward, we expect Brent

crude to remain volatile and extend the consolidation

between the broad range of $50 to $54 levels over the

coming weeks.

• The key overhead trend line ($54) has provided stiff

resistance during the entire decline since January

2017 till date. Structurally, prices have so far retraced

the last falling segment consuming five weeks ($54.67

to $44.35) by 80% while consuming nine weeks.

Slower pace of retracement highlights the underlying

weak bias. We believe price will remain subject to

bouts of selling pressure around $54 region.

• The short-term rising trend line in place since June

2017 provides cushion around $50 region. A decisive

break and close below $50 will trigger further

downward bias in the short term.

• Among oscillators, the weekly RSI is seen facing

hurdle at its key overhead falling trendline suggesting

continuance of the range bound consolidation in the

near term

Brent Crude Weekly Candlestick Chart


Weekly RSI is resisting at its falling trendline indicating continuance of consolidation in near term

42

43

57-58

54

1414

Deal Team – At Your ServiceF&O Stocks Pivot points for the Week (August 28 – 01 September, 2017)

Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

COMPANY CMP S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 Trend

SENSEX 31596.06 31432.75 31318.35 31137.35 31661.55 31776.00 31956.95 Neutral

BANK NIFTY FUTURE 24330.30 24267.20 24137.75 24008.25 24526.15 24672.90 24819.65 +ve

NIFTY FUTURE 9873.25 9822.60 9789.00 9739.25 9889.90 9923.50 9973.25 Neutral

BANK NIFTY 24274.20 24226.75 24087.15 23947.55 24505.95 24648.50 24791.05 +ve

NIFTY 9857.05 9806.05 9770.00 9710.75 9878.15 9914.25 9973.50 Neutral

ACC 1781.50 1764.75 1746.25 1727.80 1785.20 1795.40 1805.65 -ve

ADANI PORT 380.05 375.00 370.25 364.45 384.50 389.30 395.05 Neutral

AMBUJA CEMENT 275.40 273.55 271.95 268.45 276.80 278.45 281.95 Neutral

ASIAN PAINTS 1135.60 1125.80 1118.05 1107.90 1141.30 1149.05 1159.25 Neutral

AUROBINDO PHARMA 732.15 725.85 715.10 704.30 747.40 756.75 766.10 +ve

AXIS BANK 506.85 504.95 500.25 495.60 514.30 518.50 522.70 +ve

BAJAJ AUTO 2728.55 2685.75 2665.25 2644.70 2740.70 2768.20 2795.65 -ve

BOB 142.85 137.50 133.85 130.20 143.20 146.05 148.90 -ve

BPCL 508.20 507.00 501.45 495.85 518.15 529.75 541.30 +ve

BHARTI AIRTEL 432.95 430.45 426.00 421.55 439.35 444.00 448.70 +ve

BHEL 126.95 123.45 121.80 120.10 127.10 128.90 130.70 -ve

BHARTI INFRATEL 383.90 377.30 372.55 367.85 385.40 389.45 393.55 -ve

BOSCH 21676.25 21437.15 21098.90 20760.70 21777.40 21947.50 22117.65 -ve

CIPLA 574.05 571.20 566.05 560.90 581.50 594.65 607.80 +ve

COAL INDIA 241.30 236.10 232.40 228.65 242.00 245.00 247.95 -ve

DR.REDDY'S LAB. 2088.15 2062.30 2017.55 1972.85 2151.75 2169.20 2186.65 +ve

EICHER MOTORS 30750.90 29949.00 29456.10 28963.25 30882.20 31348.75 31815.35 -ve

GAIL 383.00 382.40 377.80 373.15 391.65 395.60 399.55 +ve

GRASIM 1134.45 1129.35 1118.25 1107.15 1151.60 1167.20 1182.85 +ve

HCL TECH 867.50 858.25 849.85 841.40 869.90 875.70 881.50 -ve

HDFC 1757.35 1754.75 1745.00 1735.25 1774.25 1792.90 1811.60 +ve

HERO MOTO 3882.65 3819.40 3768.60 3717.85 3905.75 3948.95 3992.10 -ve

HINDALCO 233.00 228.95 225.80 221.15 235.20 238.35 242.95 Neutral

HIND. UNILEVER 1179.70 1167.35 1152.55 1137.80 1183.70 1191.85 1200.05 -ve

IDEA CELLULAR 90.00 88.75 87.75 85.95 90.80 91.80 93.60 Neutral

INDUSIND BANK 1667.70 1660.95 1642.70 1624.45 1697.45 1712.40 1727.30 +ve

INFOSYS 912.15 889.45 873.45 837.15 921.45 937.45 973.70 Neutral

ITC 281.45 280.65 279.35 275.95 283.25 284.60 287.95 Neutral

KOTAK MAH.BANK 972.10 960.15 950.80 941.45 974.00 980.95 987.85 -ve

L & T 1131.70 1129.95 1123.25 1116.50 1143.45 1152.95 1162.45 +ve

LUPIN 992.50 981.65 961.70 941.75 1021.55 1031.45 1041.35 +ve

M & M 1375.15 1370.30 1363.80 1355.85 1383.25 1389.70 1397.70 Neutral

MARUTI SUZUKI 7612.85 7551.70 7505.95 7440.25 7643.15 7688.90 7754.60 Neutral

1515

Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

F&O stocks pivot points for the week (August 28 – 01 September, 2017)

COMPANY CMP S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 Trend

NTPC 169.00 165.75 163.30 160.80 169.70 171.70 173.65 -ve

ONGC 159.45 155.70 155.00 154.30 159.80 161.85 163.85 -ve

POWER GRID 220.95 217.40 215.95 214.45 221.05 222.90 224.70 -ve

RELIANCE 1568.05 1549.75 1536.90 1524.05 1569.75 1579.75 1589.70 -ve

SBI 280.30 278.95 276.40 273.85 284.10 286.70 289.35 +ve

SUN PHARMA 483.00 480.00 472.70 465.45 494.50 508.95 523.35 +ve

TATA MOTOR DVR 227.35 226.75 225.05 223.35 230.20 233.10 236.05 +ve

TATA MOTORS 384.15 382.30 378.65 375.00 389.65 394.60 399.55 +ve

TATA POWER 79.15 78.00 76.30 74.55 79.45 80.20 80.90 -ve

TCS 2496.60 2463.50 2441.55 2419.60 2501.45 2520.40 2539.35 -ve

TECH MAHINDRA 427.70 420.80 411.70 402.60 430.10 434.75 439.45 -ve

TATA STEEL 639.00 635.15 628.60 622.10 648.25 658.30 668.35 +ve

ULTRATECH CEMENT 3939.65 3925.90 3893.90 3856.80 3989.90 4021.85 4059.00 Neutral

WIPRO 289.40 286.80 285.85 284.90 289.65 291.10 292.50 -ve

YES BANK 1719.45 1702.70 1685.95 1665.80 1736.20 1752.95 1773.15 Neutral

ZEE 511.70 508.40 504.85 497.45 515.50 519.00 526.45 Neutral

1616

Deal Team – At Your ServiceForthcoming Economic Events Calendar


Date Event

India

31-Aug Fiscal Deficit INR Crore

31-Aug GDP YoY

1-Sep Nikkei India PMI Mfg

Japan

29-Aug Jobless Rate

29-Aug Job-To-Applicant Ratio

30-Aug Retail Sales MoM

30-Aug Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales

30-Aug Small Business Confidence

US

28-Aug Retail Inventories MoM

30-Aug GDP Annualized QoQ

31-Aug Pending Home Sales MoM

31-Aug Initial Jobless Claims

1-Sep Unemployment Rate

Euro Zone

28-Aug M3 Money Supply YoY

30-Aug Economic Confidence

30-Aug Industrial Confidence

30-Aug Consumer Confidence

UK

28-Aug Nationwide House PX MoM

30-Aug Net Consumer Credit

1717

Deal Team – At Your ServiceNotes

• Please execute the recommendation within the prescribed range provided in the report

• Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis

• We adapt a trading strategy of booking 50% profit when the position is in profit by 3-5% and trail stop loss on remaining position to the

entry point

• In recommendations where it is advised to buy on declines, if the target price is hit before activation of the call in prescribed range then the

recommendation is considered not initiated

• The recommendations are valid only for the week and are to be squared off by the end of the week. In case we intend to carry forward the

position, it will be communicated through separate mail

Trading Portfolio allocation

• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products

• Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment

• Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation

• For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each

recommendation

18

Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation

Duration

Daily Calls 8% 2-3% 3-4 Stocks 0.5-1% 2-3% Intraday

Stocks on the Move 6% 3-5% 7-10 Per Months 7-10% 10-15% 3 Months

Weekly Calls 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week

Weekly Technicals 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week

Monthly Call 15% 5% 2-3 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month

Monthly Technical 15% 2-4% 5-8 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month

Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months

Gladiator Stocks 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 15% and above 20% and above 6 Months

Cash 10% -

100%

Number of Calls

Return Objective

Frontline Stocks Mid Cap StocksProduct Product wise

allocation

Allocations

Max allocation in

1 Stock

1919

Deal Team – At Your ServiceCandlesticks Glossary:

Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period. Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and, therefore, are

important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance

needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend

Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in complete

charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of the morning

star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support

Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern. This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend. The market falls, and a

black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior session’s black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term

support for prices

Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next session’s open but that

session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to

as technical support for prices

Hammer: A candlestick line which, during a downtrend, has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session’s

range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of

prices above head of the Hammer in following session

Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish trend.

The next candle line--the small real body—warns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior up trend has

stopped or reversed

Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal. This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally. A black candle real body wraps around a white real

body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference

Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second session’s price opens over

the prior session’s high (or above the prior session’s close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the

prior session’s white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately

Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very

long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead

Continuation Patterns: Other than widely known Candlestick reversal patterns discussed above, there are numerous patterns mentioned in literature on

Candlestick which describe the continuation of existing sentiments i.e. bullish or bearish. We have refrained from mentioning names of these patterns to avoid

confusion. However, the remark Continuation Pattern refers to bullish or bearish candlestick patterns which suggest continuation of existing trend

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]

21

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to

this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or

securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or

view(s) in this report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock

brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities Limited is a SEBI registered Research Analyst with SEBI Registration Number –

INH000000990.ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various

subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management,

etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India.

We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our

Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from

maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

The information and opinions in this section have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and

information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to,

copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI

Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or

keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-

rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable

regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in

certain other circumstances.

The research recommendations are based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent

verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. These research recommendations and information herein is solely for

informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or

other financial instruments. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving these recommendations. Nothing in

this section constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate

to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed herein may not be suitable for all investors, who must make

their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be

taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks.

The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities

accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of these recommendations. Past performance is not

necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before

investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not

predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

22

Disclaimer

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been

mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein during the period preceding

twelve months from the date of these recommendations for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance,

investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant

banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned herein in the past twelve months.

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI

Securities or its associates or its Analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third

party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have

any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this reports.

It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee and Vinayak Parmar, Research Analysts giving these

recommendations have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein in the preceding twelve months.

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the

company/companies mentioned herein as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of these research recommendations.

Since Associates (ICICI group companies) of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial

interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned herein.

It is confirmed that Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee or advisory board member of the companies mentioned

herein.

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented herein.

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned herein.

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis

activities.

This report or recommendations are not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or

located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law,

regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities

described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this

document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

weekly technical -...

Documents