Weekly Market UpdateJuly 26, 2021

This Update• Our week last week • The market this week • Earnings/other announcements • Our week ahead • A Deep Dive: MRNA

Last Week• We concluded the live trading in Income Madness • COVID, COVID and more COVID • The market fell sharply, rebounded sharply • Earnings = better the expected • Earnings = many companies that beat expectations saw their stocks fall

• Jobless claims rose

Income Madness Status

TSM 118.00 30-Jul

SCHW 70.00 30-Jul

BBY 111.00 30-Jul

BBBY 27.00 30-Jul

Max Capital Deployed $52,500Current Capital Deployed $32,600

Realized Profits $380Total Potential Profits $1,151Potential Rate of Return 2.19%

The Market This Week• Major, major earnings announcements including mega tech

• The Fed meets - bond market says there will be no surprises

• More news about COVID

A Deep Dive = Moderna (MRNA)• A perceived leader in COVID-19 vaccines • More than a vaccine company • Stock has had an explosive run • Fairly valued or "bubblicious"? • The trend, the company, the stock

The Trend = Technology, Not COVID• MRNA is NOT a vaccine company, it is a messenger

RNA company • 24 development programs

• Vaccines • Cancer vaccines and treatments (5 in clinical trials) • Other treatments, i.e., partnership with AZN on post-

heat attack treatment • Rare/orphan diseases

Messenger RNA• A powerful competitive advantage • Messenger RNA is an "information" molecule • Translation = chemistry is the same across diseases and treatments

• Translation = manufacturing is the same across diseases and treatments

• Up to 15 "modalities" in 15 years

A Possible Home Run?• Company is moving to a Phase III study for a CMV/herpes vaccine

• Market demand/demographics huge • First of a kind Phase II success • Probability of success and approval: unknown

The COVID Vaccine• 800M to 1B does in 2021 • 3B doses to be produced in 2022 • Average price at present $36.50 • Incremental demand

• The unvaccinated • Children • Boosters

Forecasts• Variables

• The unvaccinated • Children • Boosters • Pricing • Competition

• $18B-$20B in 2021 • $12B-$25B in 2022

Financials• Q1 1.9B in sales, $1.2B in net income, $8B + in cash

• 2021 forecast = $19B in sales • Trailing P/E = 233 • Forward P/E (avg est.) = 18 • Forward P/S (avg est.) = 20 • Conclusion: Huge margins and cashflow

Great Biopharma firms are built on margins, cash flows and the ability to develop products without

diluting shareholders

The Stock• Exploded in value • Very volatile • Subject to headlines = what if Tom Hanks has a bad reaction to the vaccine?

• Several ways to trade MRNA

Three Month Chart

$177.61

$330

Trading MRNA• Silly put: 10% or more out of the money = target of 25%-40% annualized return

• Silly bull put spread: Top leg 15% or more out of the money= 100% annualized return

• LEAP/call spread with a purchased put: A "collared" trade = 75% annualized return

Our Week Ahead• Trading session on Wednesday • We begin Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday live sessions in August

• August schedule out by week's end • We will collar our Apple position • Trades = ?

Earnings - Monday

•PETS •RYAAY •TSLA

Earnings - Tuesday

•APPL •CAKE •GLW •GOOGL •JBLU

•MSFT •PHM •SBUX •UPS •V

Earnings - Wednesday

•ADP •EXAS •F •HUM

•MCD •PFE •PYPL •SPOT

Earnings - Thursday

•AMZN •DECK •FSLR •GILD

•HLT •SWKS •TMUS •WST

Earnings - Friday

•CPRI •QSR

Emails• One worth mentioning • A newer member introduced herself • A good-sized portfolio, comfortable with many aspects of technical trading

• Interested in fundamentals going forward • Who are you? Send me an email

 DISCLAIMER: This is educational and informational content for buying stocks and selling options to generate income. Nothing presented in this coaching or training program is intended as, or should be construed to be, a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. These are not recommendations. This information is provided for educational and informational purposes only. Use this information at your own risk.  

LIABILITY: Readers agree to hold Traders Reserve, LLC completely harmless and free from liability of any kind as a result of using the techniques and strategies described herein. This program and content is for educational and informational use only. Use caution and seek the advice of an outside registered investment advisor. Prior to making any investment or trading decisions, reader agrees to exercise due diligence when it comes to making trading decisions and all information that has been provided herein should be independently verified. You agree the Traders Reserve, LLC is not responsible in whole or in part for the outcome of your trading decisions. There is no implied warranty for the fitness or suitability of this information for your use, and you expressly waive any liability or claim arising from such usage. 

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Stock, options and futures trading is not appropriate for everyone. There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading these markets. Losses can and will occur. No system or methodology has ever been developed that can guarantee profits or ensure freedom from losses. No representation or implication is being made that using any of the Options Income Blueprint strategies or tactics, or the information in this website or accompanying material will generate profits or ensure freedom from losses.

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.