weekly market update 2-17-16phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/pwa2-17-16.pdf · 2016. 2. 17. · weekly...
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Weekly Market Update 2-17-16
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ThemarketsexplodedhigheronFridaycourtesyofmajorverbalinterventionsfromECBPresidentMarioDraghiandaGovernmentOfficialontheinnercircleofJapanesePrimeMinisterShinzoAbe.Theseverbalinterventionshavekickedoffabounceinriskmarkets(moreonthislater)thatIbelievewillendwithinthenextweekorso.ThefirstverbalinterventioncamefromtheECB,whichsuggestedcuttingratesfurtherintoNIRP.
ThereisfirmsupportforadepositratecutwithintheEuropeanCentralBank'sGoverningCouncilbutappetiteformoreradicalactionisstilllimited,conversationswithpolicymakersindicateamonthbeforetheMarchratedecision…
ECBPresidentMarioDraghihassaidthebankwouldreviewandpossiblyrecalibrateitsstanceinMarchtofightpersistentlylowinflation.Marketsnowpriceatleasttworatecuts,takingthedepositrateto-0.55percentbytheendoftheyearfrom-0.3percent.ECBWATCH"DoingnothinginMarchisveryunlikely,"thegovernorofoneoftheeurozone's19centralbankstoldReuters."Monetaryconditionshavetightened,longterminflationexpectationsarefallingandcredibilityisatstake.""Ithinkadepositratecutisfairlyundisputed,"thegovernoradded.http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-idUSKCN0VL1IP
ThesecondandfarmoreimportantverbalinterventioncamefromJapan.However,thistimearoundtheverbaliterventioncameNOTfromBankofJapanheadHaruhikoKuroda,butfromaGovernmentOfficialontheinnercircleofJapanesePrimeMinisterShinzoAbe.
AcloseadvisertoPrimeMinisterShinzoAbesaidFridaythattheBankofJapanmaycallanemergencymeetingtoundertakeadditionalmonetaryeasingiffinancialmarketsremainturbulent.EtsuroHonda,aformerfinanceministrybureaucrat,saidthegovernmentneedstodelayasales-taxincreasescheduledfornextyearandshouldconsideranadditionalfiscalstimuluspackage.
WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE 2-17-16
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Mr.Honda’sremarks,madeduringaninterviewwithTheWallStreetJournal,underlineaheightenedsenseofurgencyamongJapanesepolicymakersastheyen’sresurgenceandplummetingstocksthreatentofurtherundermineanalreadyfragileeconomy.http://www.wsj.com/articles/boj-could-consider-further-easing-amid-market-turmoil-says-abe-adviser-1455248770
Thisnewsstorytellsusseveralthings:
1) TheAbeGovernmentisawarethemarketsnolongerfindBankofJapanheadHaruhikoKurodacredible.
2) AbeisgrowingincreasinglyconcernedaboutthepoliticalramificationsofAbenomics’failure.
Regarding#1,asInotedlastweek,theBankofJapanisrapidlylosingcredibilitywiththemarkets.TheBankofJapanlaunchedNIRPonFridayJanuary292016.TheNikkeibarelystagedarallyonthenews.ThispromptedBankofJapanheadHaruhikoKurodatosurfaceofMondayFebruary3tostatethatthereis“nolimit”totheamountofeasingtheBankofJapancouldemploy(includingdeepercutstoNIRP).EventhispronouncementfailedtogenerateamarketresponsewithJapanesesharesplummetinganadditional6%.
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ThisiswhyitwassomeonefromAbe’sinnercircle,NOTtheBankofJapan,whoissuedtheverbalinterventiononFriday.ThefactthestatementwasmadeduringaninterviewwiththeWallStreetJournalonlyconfirmsthatthiswasanintendedintervention.Regarding#2,(Abe’sconcernsofpoliticalfalloutfromhisfailedpolicies)bothhousesofJapan’scongress(therearetwohouses,thelowerandtheupperwhichcomprisethecongressorNationalDietasitiscalledinJapan)willbestagingelectionsinthecomingmonths(theloweronApril24th,theuppersometimethissummer).PrimeMinisterShinzoAbewonalandslidein2014basedonhisplatformofgeneratingeconomicgrowthforJapanviabazooka-levelmonetarypolicy.UnderhisguidancetheBankofJapanlaunchingthesinglelargestQEprograminhistoryinApril2013(anamountequaltoover20%ofJapan’sGDP).Japansawabriefuptickineconomicgrowth(aboutsixmonths)beforeJapan’sGDProlledoveragain.TheBankofJapanthenexpandeditsalreadymassiveQEprograminOctober2014.Again,theresultswereshort-lived.
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Meanwhilebothconsumerconfidence…
…andconsumerspendinghavegonenowhereasidefromabriefuptickinearly2014asconsumersrushedtopurchasegoodsbeforeJapanhikedsalestaxesforthefirsttimein17years.
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Insimpleterms,Abenomicshasfailedtogeneratethedesiredeffects=sustainedGDPgrowthandinflation.TheonepositiveofthewholemesswasthatJapanesestockseruptedhigher.However,inrecentmonthsthistrendhasended.
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Asaresultofthis,PrimeMinisterAbeispanickingaboutlosingpoliticalpower.Togiveyouanideaofhowseriousthisis,considerthathehaspersonallyintervenedtogetseveralTVBroadcastersfiredforcriticizinghimonair.
ManyBritishpoliticianswoulddoubtlessrejoiceatthenewsthatAndrewMarr,EmilyMaitlisandAndrewNeilweretoleavetheirjobsalmostsimultaneously.ThatisthefatethathasbefallenwhatcouldlooselybedescribedastheircounterpartsinJapan–IchiroFurutachi,HirokoKuniyaandShigetadaKishii–threerespectedbroadcasterswithareputationforaskingtoughquestions.Theirimminentdeparturefromeveningnewsprogrammesisnotjustalosstotheirprofession;criticssaytheywereforcedoutaspartofacrackdownonmediadissentbyanincreasinglyintolerantprimeminister,ShinzoAbe,andhissupporters…Whiletheanchorsthemselveshaverefusedtocomment,expertssayAbeandhisallieshadmadetheirfeelingsknownaboutthebroadcastersduringsecretivedinnerswithtopmediaexecutives.http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/17/japanese-tv-anchors-lose-their-jobs-amid-claims-of-political-pressure
Sowhat’stocomeofthis?AbewilllikelyfireBankofJapanheadHaruhikoKurodaandpushforanewwaveofQElaterthisyear.AberecentlysawhisfirstuptickinpopularityinmonthswhenhisEconomicMinister(oneofthekeyarchitectsofAbenomics)resignedafteritwasrevealedhehadtakenbribes.NodoubtAbehasseenthepoliticalbenefitsofgettingridofunpopularbureaucrats.Moreover,asI’venotedpreviously,themarketsarenolongerrespondingtoNIRP,theyrequirealarge-scaleQEprograminordertoreact.
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IexpectAbewillaskKurodatostepdownsometimeinthenextsixmonths.He’llreplacehimwithanevenmoreaggressiveKeynesianwhilepromisinganevenlargerQEprogramwiththegoalofhittingtherequiredinflationtargets.Speakingofinflation,theUS’scoreinflationhasbeguntogovertical.
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Infact,ithasbrokenitsdownwardtrendlinefromthe2006high.
ThisrepresentsaHUGEproblemfortheFed.Debtdeflationisonceagainappearingrightascoreinflationbeginstomoveupwards.ThustheFedhasadecisiontomake:
1) Continuetohikeratesandacceleratetheeconomicdownturn/deflation.
2) Stophikingratesandruntheriskoflettingcoreinflationrunwild.PersonallyIthinktheFedwilloptfor#2.Ifitcomesbetweeninflationanddebtdeflation,theFedwillalwaysoptforinflation.Movingontothemarkets.TheS&P500isbouncinghardbasedontheafore-mentionedverbalinterventionsaswellasthefactthatitisoptionsexpirationweek(whenWallStreetgunsmarketshighertoshredasmanyoptionscontractsaspossible).Thekeylinetowatchisbluebelow.Iexpectustoseeamovetothatlevelbeforestocksrolloveragain.
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Thispatternexistsinvirtuallyallstockindexestoday.EmergingMarkets(EEM)
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Brazil(EWZ)
China(FXI)
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However,thiswillnotlastforlong.BarringamassivenewCentralBankintervention(actualQE,notjustverbalinterventions)themarketsareonborrowedtime.Iexpectwe’llseeasharpselloffcomingshortly.Atthatpoint,CentralBankswillbegintobringoutthebigguns.I’vepostedthebelowchartmanytimesbefore,butitisTHEtemplateforwhat’shappeninghere.WhentheTechBubbleburststocksstagedEIGHTmovesof16%+injustsixmonths.WhenbubblesburstyouDOgetsharpralliestotheupside.Andit’salwaysarollercoasterontheridedown.
Weareexperiencingsimilarvolatilitytodayasthestockmarkethastakenoutitslong-termtrendlineandthetrendisnowdown.
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Onafinalnote,Goldhasbrokenoutofthefallingwedgepatternthathastrappeditsince2013.
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Thepreciousmetalisnowoverboughtintheshort-termandneedstoretestformerresistance(theupperblueline).Ifitholdstherethenthenextleguphasbegun.AsSocieteGeneralrecentlypointedout,duringthelastGoldbullmarketinthe1970s,Goldrose550%duringitsfirstlegupfrom1970to1974.Itthencorrected50%beforebeginningitsnextlegup.However,itwastheSECONDmovehigherthanwastheBIGone=a900%increaseinvalue.Usingthisasaproxy,combinedwithmybeliefthatCentralBanksaregoingtobeunleashingtrulyNUCLEARlevelQEprogramsanddeeperNIRPcuts,IexpectGoldtomovetoatleast$5,000perounceifnot$10,000perounceduringitsnextlegup.A900%increasefromcurrentlevelswouldputusat$10,800perounce.Getready:thetimetobuyGoldwithbothhandsisfastapproaching.BothGoldminersandGoldMiningJuniorsareshowingsimilarbreakoutstotheupside.
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Thisconcludesthisweek’sissueofPrivateWealthAdvisory.Bythelookofthings,weareinadeadcatbouncefromthesharpselloffthanbegantheyear.IexpectthisbouncetolastperhapsaweekmorebeforewemovedownHARD.I’mwatchingthemarketscloselyandwillissueupdatesasneeded.Barringanynewdevelopments,you’llnexthearfrommenextWednesdayinourregularweeklymarketupdate.UntilThen…
EditorPrivateWealthAdvisory
BestRegards,
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OPEN POSITIONS
Pricesasof2/17/16afterthemarket’sclose.Pricesincludedividends
US DOLLAR CARRY TRADE IMPLOSION PORTFOLIO
RELATIVE US STRENGTH PORTFOLIO
SYSTEMIC RISK/ BLACK SWAN PORTFOLIO
*Avg.priceof$20.78and$14.20
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
UltraBullishDollarETF UUP 5/23/11 $21.79 $25.1315%
UltraShortEuro EUO 4/10/15 $27.68 $24.28 -12% UltraShortYenETF YCS 5/27/15 $94.48 $78.38 -17%
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT
PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
NuveenMuni.Fund NIO 1/2/14 $13.12 $14.57 25% Wal-Mart WMT 7/30/14 $74.78 $66.11 -8% Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $95.82 $82.00 -11% 7-10YrTreasuryETF UST 11/26/14 $55.54 $60.64 11%
20+YrTreasuryETF TLT 7/15/15 $116.89 $129.31 12% RPXCorp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $9.78 -37% Apple AAPL 9/11/15 $114.21 $98.12 -14%
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
Gold 3/17/10
$1,120$1,210.00
8%
Silver 3/17/10
$17.50$15.33 -12%
GoldMinersETF* GDX 5/13/15 $20.78 $17.82 2% GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ 1/27/16 $19.12 $23.76
24%
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Pricesasof2/17/16afterthemarket’sclose.Pricesincludedividends
TECH BUBBLE 2.0 PORTFOLIO
MARKET HEDGE PORTFOLIO
EU MELTDOWN PORTFOLIO
*Avg.priceof$385.37and$583
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT
PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
Amazon(SHORT)* AMZN 2/25/15 $385.37 $534.10 -10%
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT
PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
UltraShortNikkeiETF EWV 1/6/15 $67.46 $58.61 -13%UltraShortEmergingMarketETF EEV 1/20/16 $31.27 $25.43 -19%UltraShortChinaETF FXP 1/20/16 $59.95 $52.35 -13%UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 1/20/16 $110.71 $77.30 -30%UltraShortFinancials SKF 2/10/16 $60.95 $56.04 -8% UltraShortRussell2000ETF TWM 2/10/16 $52.94 $48.03 -9%
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT
PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
SpainETF(SHORT) EWP 1/22/16 $25.89 $25.64 1%
DeutscheBank(SHORT)DB
2/3/16$16.65
$17.94-8%
Santander(SHORT) SAN 2/3/16 $3.86 $4.17 -8%
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POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
SELL DATE
SELL PRICE
GAIN/
LOSS
Apple AAPL 4/2/14 $77.51 9/29/14 $98.84 28%
EuropeanFinancials(SHORT) EUFN 4/15/14 $24.89 10/10/14 $22.47 11%
UltraShortRussell2000 TWM 4/15/14 $49.46 10/10/14 $52.28 6%
UltraShortBrazil BZQ 10/15/14 $62.00 10/21/14 $71.92 16%
UltraShortGold GLL 10/24/14 $94.15 11/14/14 $104.21 11%
UltraShortSilver ZSL 10/24/14 $104.89 11/14/14 $122.00 17%
EnduroRoyaltyTrust NDRO 5/22/13 12.05 11/28/14 $7.06 -26%
UltraShortEuro EOU 1/20/15 $23.49 3/5/15 $26.51 13%
UltraShortBrazil BZQ 1/6/15 $91.07 3/6/15 $100.74 11%
Target TGT 5/28/14 $55.34 4/1/15 $82.13 52%
Pfizer PFE 7/30/14 $29.26 4/1/15 $34.56 20%
GeneralElectric GE 2/5/14 $24.57 4/13/15 $27.89 18%
BPPrudhoeBayRoyaltyTrust BPT 1/2/14
$76.775/20/15 $66.70 5%
ConocoPhillips COP 3/5/14$66.30
5/20/15 $65.27 4%
RussiaETF TRF4/9/15 $10.62 5/20/15 $11.36
7%
RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS
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POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
SELL DATE
SELL PRICE
GAIN/
LOSS
UtraShortOilETF SCO 5/27/15 $61.08 7/6/15 $70.30 15%
UltraShortGoldETF GLL 2/25/15 $95.49 7/7/15 $101.75 7%
Copper(SHORT) JJC 3/10/15 $31.35 7/7/15 $28.78 8%
UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 5/27/15 $85.70 7/7/15 $92.02 7%
IndustrialMetalsETF UBM 3/25/15 $15.24 7/7/15 $13.56 11% UltraShortChinaETF(half) FXP 3/10/15 $36.45 7/8/15 $41.93 15%
UltraShortOilETF(half)SCO 7/21/15 $76.19 7/23/15 $82.14 8%
UltraShortBrazilETF(half)
BZQ 7/21/15 $91.39 7/23/15 $102.36 12% UltraShortBrazilETF(secondhalf)
BZQ 7/21/15 $91.39 7/24/15 $109.60 20% UltraShortOilETF(secondhalf)
SCO 7/21/15 $76.19 7/27/15 $87.36 15%
LinkedIn(SHORT)LNKD 6/17/15 $215.45 8/4/15 $194.96 10%
AustraliaETF(SHORT)EWA 1/6/15 $21.97 8/11/15 $19.85 11%
UltraShortEmergingMktsETF
EEV 1/20/15 $19.48 8/11/15 $21.56 11%
RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED
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RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
SELL DATE
SELL PRICE
GAIN/
LOSS
UltraShortChinaETF FXP 3/10/15 $36.458/19/15 $41.59 14%
ChinaRealEstateETF(SHORT) TAO 6/11/13 $20.11 8/24/15 $17.21 14% SouthKoreaETF(SHORT) EWY 8/18/15 $48.17
8/24/15 $43.82 10%
IndiaETF(SHORT) INP 8/18/15 $70.188/24/15 $59.38 18%
Santander(SHORT) SAN 8/13/15 $6.638/24/15 $5.99 10%
SpainETF(SHORT) EWP 8/13/15 $34.088/24/15 $31.38 8%
AustralianDollarETF(SHORT)
FXA 5/27/15 $77.368/26/15 $70.99 8%
UltraShortSilverETFZSL 7/29/15 $120.84
8/26/15 $132.02 9%
UltraLongS&P500 SSO 9/2/15 $56.129/9/15 $59.37 6%
UltraLongRussell200 UWM 9/2/15$79.20 9/9/15 $83.75 6%
CanadaDollarETF(SHORT)
FXC 5/27/15 $79.819/23/15 $74.47 7%
Canon(SHORT) CAJ 7/31/13 $30.849/23/15 $29.12 6%
UltraShortSemiconductorsETF
SSG9/18/15
$54.00 9/24/15 $60.2011%
UltraShortBrazilETFBZQ 9/22/15 $172.16
9/24/15 $199.00 16%
DeutscheBank(SHORT)DB
10/28/15$30.31 11/12/15 $26.17 14%
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RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
SELL DATE
SELL PRICE
GAIN/
LOSS
Santander(SHORT)SAN
10/28/15$5.70 11/27/15 $5.36 6%
UltraShortGoldETFGLL 7/29/15 $112.00
11/27/15 $117.38 5%
UltraShortOilETF SCO 11/12/15 $95.3512/2/15 $108.18
13%
UltraShortBrazilETF BZQ 11/12/15 $66.3212/2/15 $72.46
9%
BancoDeChile(Short)
BCH 8/18/15 $61.8912/8/15 $57.68 7%
RussiaETF(SHORT)RSX 12/2/15 $16.35
12/8/15 $15.32 6% UltraShortEmergingMarketsETF EEV 11/12/15 $22.14
12/8/15 $23.767%
SpainETF(SHORT)EWP
9/30/15$29.66 1/14/16 $27.64 7%
UltraShortEmergingMarketsETF
EEV12/17/15
$23.84 1/14/16 $25.316%
SingaporeETF(SHORT)EWS 9/22/15 $10.31
1/7/16 $9.57 7%
MexicoETF(SHORT) EWW 12/23/15 $51.151/7/16 $46.66 9%
FranceETF(SHORT)EWQ
9/30/15$24.07 1/11/16 $22.64 6%
Nvidia NVDA 6/26/13$14.14
1/13/16 $30.04119%
Auto-Zone AZO 9/25/13$422.73
1/13/16 $716.2169%
Intel INTC 12/20/13$25.14
1/13/16 $32.4036%
Target TGT 5/28/14$55.34
1/13/16 $72.6838%
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23
RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
SELL DATE
SELL PRICE
GAIN/
LOSS
Tesla(SHORT) TSLA 2/25/15 $203.761/14/16 $196.41 4%
UltraShortFinancialsSKF
9/18/15$52.39 1/14/16 $55.20
5%
EuropeanFinancials(SHORT)
EUFN1/6/16
$19.36 1/15/16 $18.02 7% UltraShortS&P500 SDS 9/18/15 $22.33
1/15/16$23.58 6%
MalaysiaETF(SHORT)EWM 9/22/15 $7.50
1/15/16 $7.16 5%
Kraft KHC 9/24/14 $56.811/15/16 $68.79
27%
McDonalds MCD 10/30/14 $92.871/15/16 $115.25
29%
Santander(SHORT)SAN
1/6/16$4.52 1/19/16 $4.19 7%
RetailETF(SHORT)XRT
1/13/16 $40.66 1/20/16 $38.01 7%
Coke KO 8/28/13$36.80
1/22/16 $41.8121%
GeneralElectric GE 2/5/14$24.57
1/22/16 $27.9120%
EliLilly LLY 12/3/14 $71.131/22/16 $83.09
20%
UniversalCorporation UVV3/5/15
$48.051/22/16 $52.23
12%
Pfizer PFE 7/30/14 $29.262/1/16 $30.16
8%
Microsoft MSFT 12/3/14 $48.082/1/16 $54.70
16%
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24
RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
SELL DATE
SELL PRICE
GAIN/
LOSS
Netflix(SHORT) NFLX 1/27/16 $91.152/8/16 $81.55 11%
ItalyETF(SHORT)(half)
EWI1/27/16 $12.05 2/9/16
$10.88 10% BarclaysPLC(SHORT)(half) BCS 1/27/16 $10.37
2/9/16$9.09 12%
DeutscheBank(SHORT)(half) DB 2/3/16 $16.65
2/9/16$14.95 10%
ItalyETF(SHORT)(otherhalf)
EWI1/27/16 $12.05 2/11/16
$10.71 11% BarclaysPLC(SHORT)(otherhalf) BCS 1/27/16 $10.37
2/11/16$8.64 17%