weekly market review - best consumer digital bank uae | …€¦ · · 2017-04-04al mazaya...

Weekly Market Review March 29, 2015 – April 4, 2015

April 5, 2015

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CONTENTS

International Equity Markets

GCC Equities

Currencies

Commodities

Interest Rates

Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

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US nonfarm payrolls increased 126,000 in Mar, less than half the downwardly revised 264,000 pace in Feb

The jobless rate held at a more than 6-1/2-year low of 5.5%, labor force participation rate stood at 62.7%

Consumer confidence rebounded in Mar as Conference Board’s index rose to 101.3 from 98.8 in Feb

New orders for factory goods rose 0.2% in Feb, largest gain since July & after a revised 0.7% drop in Jan

Markit’s final manufacturing PMI gained to 55.7 in Mar vs. 55.1 in Feb as output and employment gained

Pace of manufacturing growth slowed as ISM’s factory activity index declined to 51.5 from 52.9 in Feb

Markit’s final Euro zone manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 in Mar from 51 in Feb, remaining above 50 for a 21st month

Consumer prices fell 0.1% MoM in Mar, smallest decline in 2015; unemployment rate fell to 11.3% in Feb

UK GDP grew by 0.6% QoQ in 4Q2014, higher than previous reading of 0.5%, helped by strong growth in exports

Markit’s manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4 in Mar from 54 in Feb, reinforcing the health of the recovery

Greece said it would repay around €450mn to IMF on time on Apr 9, seeking to quell fears of default

KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 97.8 in Mar vs. 96.1 in Feb. It was below Jan’s 101.1

China’s official manufacturing PMI gained to 50.1 from 49.9 in Feb, suggesting stimulus bolstered factory activity

HSBC/Markit services PMI inched higher to 52.3 in Mar from 52 in Feb, job growth fell to 10-month low

Japan’s industrial output contracted 3.4% MoM in Feb after rising 4% in Jan, signaling faltering domestic demand

Bank of Japan’s tankan survey showed firms expect conditions to worsen in coming 3-months, expect to cut capex

Israel signed an application to join the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Poland plans to join as well

Mexico plans to trim the 2016 budget by $8.9bn compared to 2015 as revenue slumps from plunging oil prices

South Korea’s consumer prices in Mar gained at the slowest clip since July 1999 at 0.4% on sliding global oil prices

Fitch cut Nigeria’s credit-rating outlook to Negative amid elections, citing falling oil prices and rising political risks

The IMF approved a 3-year $918mn financial assistance deal for Ghana aimed at restoring economic stability

S&P 500 – 1 year performance Euro Stoxx 600 – 1 year performance

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS

Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD %

S&P 500 2,066.96 5.94 0.29 0.39

DJI 17,763.24 50.58 0.29 -0.34

Nasdaq Comp 4,886.94 -4.28 -0.09 3.19

Euro Stoxx 600 397.80 2.26 0.57 16.13

FTSE 100 6,833.46 -21.56 -0.31 4.07

Dax 11,967.39 99.06 0.83 22.05

CAC 40 5,074.14 40.08 0.80 18.76

Nikkei 225 19,435.08 149.45 0.77 11.37

Hang Seng 25,275.64 789.44 3.22 7.08

Brazil - Bovespa 53,123.02 3,028.36 6.05 6.23

Russia - Micex 1,681.47 109.92 6.99 20.40

BSE Sensex 28,260.14 801.50 2.92 2.77

Shanghai Comp 3,863.93 172.83 4.68 19.45


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The UAE is in advanced stage of drafting a law allowing foreigners to own 100% of businesses in some sectors

Commercial Bank of Dubai agreed to acquire around AED3bn of corporate loans from the Royal Bank of Scotland

Noor Bank reported a surge of 166% YoY in FY2014 net profit to AED678.1mn. Customer financing rose 26% YoY

Union Properties is engaged in talks with local banks to borrow around AED700mn to fund new projects

Arabtec has agreed terms with Egypt’s Housing Ministry for constructing 1st phase of EGP280bn 1mn homes plan

Al Khazna Insurance Co. reduced its loss in FY2014 to AED68.4mn from AED162.9mn loss in FY2013

Dubai government-owned DP World Ltd. agreed to buy a container terminal on Canada’s west coast for $457mn

Al Mazaya Holding entered into preliminary agreements to sell 35.44% ownership in its subsidiary, Gulf Turkey

Abraaj Group raised around $1.3bn for two funds to invest in Africa for tapping the continent’s economic growth

Eshraq Properties reported AED537.8mn net loss in FY2014 as compared to AED318.7mn net profit in FY2013

Saudi Aramco signed $10bn worth loan deal with 27 regional & international banks to maintain financial flexibility

Emaar Economic City seeks shareholders’ nod to convert SAR1bn loan provided to Ports Projects Co. into its shares

Ma’aden Barrick Copper Co. signed a 2-yr SAR750mn redrawable Murabaha finance facility with Saudi British Bank

Bank Aljazira appointed Gulf International & Riyad Bank’s investment banking arm to advise on SAR3bn rights issue

Red Sea Housing Services signed a credit facilities agreement with National Commercial Bank totaling SAR312.36mn

Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Co. secured an additional $1.5bn loan to finance current & future projects

Bank Dhofar’s BoD gave nod to OMR45mn rights issue; shareholders approved 5% cash dividend, 15% bonus shares

Qatar’s Alijarah Holding signed QAR125mn contract with Imperial Trading & Contracting to develop industrial land

Qatar-based QID Group & Hamad Bin Suhaim Enterprises signed deal to acquire 49% of China's Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Group for $5bn

Khaleeji Commercial Bank reported BHD3mn net profit in FY2014 vs. a net loss of BHD19.2mn in FY2013


Dubai 3,614.70 207.45 6.09 -4.22

Abu Dhabi 4,538.72 165.59 3.79 0.22

Saudi Tadawul 8,733.79 -169.70 -1.91 4.81

Qatar Index 11,699.03 288.27 2.53 -4.78

Kuwait Index 6,221.37 -1.09 -0.02 -4.81

Oman MSM 30 6,268.45 155.54 2.54 -1.18

Bahrain All Share 1,427.63 -16.88 -1.17 0.07

Egypt EGX 30 8,891.73 -160.77 -1.78 -0.39

Istanbul 100 Index 82,994.31 2,100.16 2.60 -3.18


DFMGI – 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul – 1 year performance

GCC EQUITIES


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US dollar tumbled for a 3rd week against euro, down 0.73% to 1.0969 per euro as a report showed American employers added fewer workers in Mar than in any other month since Dec 2013, threatening the outlook for interest-rate increase

Brazil’s real appreciated 3.9% in the week to 3.1229 per dollar on speculation that President Dilma Rousseff is committed to shoring up fiscal accounts and preserving the nation’s investment-grade status

Russian ruble strengthened 2.04% in the week to 56.6712 per dollar on speculation that the US will keep interest rates lower for longer, extending a rally that Morgan Stanley warned poses a threat to Russia’s budget

Indian rupee snapped its two-week gaining spree and weakened 0.13% in the week to 62.4975 per dollar on month-end dollar demand from importers coupled with fall in crude oil prices

Chinese Yuan gained 0.34% in the week to 6.1944 per dollar after the PMI data provided signs that economy is picking up and on speculation China wants a stable exchange rate as it pushes ahead with reforms

Canadian dollar climbed 0.99% in the week to 1.2484 per dollar as data showed Canada posted a trade deficit of C$984mn in Feb vs. a deficit of C$1.48bn in Jan, much smaller than expected C$2bn shortfall


EUR/USD 1.0969 0.0080 0.73 -9.33

GBP/USD 1.4920 0.0041 0.28 -4.22

AUD/USD 0.7633 -0.0119 -1.54 -6.63

USD/JPY 118.9700 -0.1600 -0.13 -0.68

USD/CHF 0.9517 -0.0101 -1.05 -4.28

USD/CAD 1.2484 -0.0125 -0.99 7.43

USD/BRl 3.1229 -0.1268 -3.90 17.51

USD/RUB 56.6712 -1.1780 -2.04 -6.69

USD/INR 62.4975 0.0800 0.13 -0.87

USD/CNY 6.1944 -0.0213 -0.34 -0.18

DXY Index 96.5450 -0.7460 -0.77 6.95

EUR/USD – 1 year performance GBP/USD – 1 year performance


CURRENCIES


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Gold & silver prices climbed 0.34% & 1.68% in the week, respectively on speculation that US may delay interest rate hike based on data that showed US employers added the fewest jobs in over a year in Mar 2015

Brent crude futures fell 2.59% in the week on concerns of increase in supply after Iran and world powers said they reached an outline accord that keeps them on track to end a decade-long nuclear dispute

Copper futures dropped 1.21% in the week as traders sold futures on expectation that slowing Chinese growth will weigh on copper demand. Weak US auto sales & manufacturing data also weighed on prices

Palm oil futures gained 1.26% in the week as Indonesian government announced it would allocate funds to subsidize biodiesel. Increased use of biodiesel can result in stronger demand for palm oil, which is one of the oils that can be blended to make biodiesel

Germany-based Oil World forecasted world soybean production will fall in 2015-16, the first decline since 2011-12 undermined by a drop in US output – although the fall may not prove sufficient to support prices. The German-based group sees global soybean inventories rising by 34% to 87.7m tons in 2014-15

Baltic dry index closed the week down 1.34% mainly due to an extended weaker demand for bigger vessels


Gold spot 1,202.87 4.12 0.34 1.52

Silver spot 17.25 0.29 1.68 9.86

Copper-CMX 273.40 -3.35 -1.21 -3.17

Brent - ICE 54.95 -1.46 -2.59 -8.75

WTI - Nymex 49.14 0.27 0.55 -10.59

S&P GSCI Spot Index

400.97 -1.75 -0.43 -4.10

Baltic Dry Index 588.00 -8.00 -1.34 -24.81

WTI Crude – 1 year performance GOLD – 1 year performance


COMMODITIES


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US government debt surged and 10-year yield fell 12.3 bps in the week to 1.84% as the disappointing employment numbers reinforced the view that the US economy had slowed down and could lead the Federal Reserve to delay raising interest rates

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research report showed investors worldwide poured $8.5bn into fixed-income funds in the week ended Apr 1, marking the 1st three months of 2015 as the biggest first quarter for fixed-income inflows since 2001. 1Q2015 posted net cash inflows of $102bn

Germany sold around €3.4bn of bonds maturing April 2020 at a record low average yield of -0.1% on Apr 1, 2015 while its longer-term borrowing costs also fell to historic lows. 10-year yield fell 1.3 bps in the week to 0.19%

Ukraine's central bank said on Mar 31 it would keep its main interest rate at 30%, with threats of new currency market destabilization and expectations of high inflation and devaluation

Malaysia’s 2017 sovereign bonds rose whereas yields declined two bps to 3.31% in the week as inflation below one percent raised speculation the central bank will cut interest rates for the first time since 2009

Ethiopia plans to develop a secondary market in government and corporate bonds in the next fiscal year, seeking to expand the country’s fundraising options


USD-1w Libor 0.14 0.0013 0.91 6.52

USD-3m Libor 0.27 -0.0016 -0.60 7.10

USD-6m Libor 0.40 -0.0037 -0.93 10.57

USD-10yr 1.84 -0.1226 -6.25 -15.30

AED-1m EIBOR 0.41 0.0300 7.81 5.07

AED-3m EIBOR 0.73 0.0314 4.48 8.23

AED-12m EIBOR 1.06 0.0514 5.10 4.36

UK-10yr 1.59 0.0500 3.24 -9.34

Japan-10yr 0.36 -0.0070 -1.89 12.73

US 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance


INTEREST RATES


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Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Laos -5.16% -5.17%

2 Morocco -3.24% -2.78%

3 Saudi Arabia -1.91% -1.90%

4 Egypt -1.78% -1.78%

5 Bahrain -1.17% -1.16%

6 Latvia -0.90% -0.17%

7 Vietnam -0.65% -0.88%

8 Mauritius -0.60% 0.36%

9 Jordan -0.46% -0.48%

10 New Zealand -0.45% 0.12%

Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Nigeria 16.90% 16.90%

2 Russia 8.60% 8.60%

3 Venezuela 7.08% 7.08%

4 Dubai−UAE 6.09% 6.08%

5 Brazil 6.05% 10.35%

6 Slovakia 5.22% 5.99%

7 Pakistan 4.86% 4.87%

8 China 4.68% 5.04%

9 Argentina 3.83% 3.62%

10 Abu Dhabi−UAE 3.79% 3.78%

WEEKLY

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Venezuela 41.39% 41.39%

2 Denmark 29.67% 17.15%

3 Argentina 29.06% 23.78%

4 Portugal 25.76% 14.03%

5 Italy 22.60% 11.16%

6 Germany 22.05% 10.66%

7 Hungary 20.25% 15.41%

8 China 19.45% 19.67%

9 France 18.76% 7.67%

10 Austria 17.85% 6.85%

YTD

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Peru -14.03% -17.11%

2 Colombia -12.11% -18.60%

3 Kazakhstan -12.05% -13.64%

4 Mongolia -10.03% -14.49%

5 Cyprus -7.44% -16.08%

6 Greece -6.64% -15.35%

7 Mauritius -4.86% -16.44%

8 Sri Lanka -4.81% -6.27%

9 Kuwait -4.81% -7.21%

10 Qatar -4.78% -4.73%

EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Gasoil -4.99%

2 Brent Crude -2.59%

3 Tin -2.38%

4 Steel Rebar -2.34%

5 Heat Oil -2.29%

6 Natural Gas -2.12%

7 Gasoline -2.04%

8 Nickel -1.96%

9 Orange Juice -1.96%

10 Copper -1.21%

Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Sugar 5.03%

2 Lead 2.99%

3 Zinc 2.26%

4 Coffee 1.95%

5 Silver 1.68%

6 Platinum 1.58%

7 Palm Oil 1.26%

8 Cocoa 0.87%

9 Palladium 0.76%

10 Zinc 0.69%

WEEKLY

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Gasoline 22.71%

2 Silver 9.86%

3 Cotton 5.67%

4 Rubber 5.49%

5 Aluminium 3.40%

6 Gold 1.52%

7 Lead 1.18%

8 Gasoil 0.34%

9

10

YTD

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Coffee -15.43%

2 Nickel -14.03%

3 Tin -13.43%

4 Sugar -12.26%

5 Steel Rebar -11.78%

6 Orange Juice -10.89%

7 WTI Crude -10.59%

8 Brent Crude -8.75%

9 Heat Oil -8.59%

10 Palladium -6.50%

COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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IMPORTANT NOTICE

This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc (“Mashreq”) in the United Arab Emirates (“U.A.E.”). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq’s prior express consent.

weekly market review - best consumer digital bank uae | …€¦ · · 2017-04-04al mazaya...

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