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weekly football tip sheet

ISSUE 20nfl divisional playoffs

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Football Weekly Football Weekly

It seems hard to believe, but another college football season is almost in the books, as just one game remains. However, it is a BIG ONE, the first ever college football playoff championship game. We at Vegas Insider have it covered too, dedicating two full pages of coverage to the championship contest. Monday is the day, Oregon and Ohio State are the combatants, and AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX is the host venue. We’re not sure that anyone could ask for

a better matchup, or place & time for a title contest. In this week’s issue of the 2014-15 Vegas Insider Football Weekly, issue #20 of 22, we offer up stats, picks, trends, and Best Bet write-ups from all three of our staff handicappers for the big game. VI Jim is our leading human expert for college football Best Bets at 30-25 ATS, so you’ll definitely want to see what he thinks of the matchup.

It’s not all about college football in this week’s big issue. The VIFW also tackles the divisional round of the playoffs. We continue with our series of trend articles for each progressive round of the playoffs. By the way, thanks for all the compliments on last week’s article, from the sounds of it, many of our readers took full advantage of some of the most profitable information offered. This week’s Divisional Round Trends article is even more powerful however, so you definitely don’t want to miss it. Our staff picks were also strong last week, one of the best weeks of the season in fact. VI Jim continued his torrid pace on Best Bets, going 2-0-1 ATS on his wildcard plays. He is now 19-6-2 ATS over the last nine weeks, good for 76%!!! That’s not all though, our Power Ratings and Forecaster selections also went 6-1-1 ATS last weekend. Hopefully its just a great start of things to come for the rest of the season.

This week’s Vegas Insider Football Weekly has all four NFL Divisional Playoff games covered. A full page is dedicated to each of the contests. We’ve again included the divisional playoff games log for you to develop your own angles as well.

We are just a few short weeks away from Super Bowl XLIX. Just a quick briefing on coverage for the rest of the year, we will cover the AFC & NFC Championship Games next week, then take a week off to prepare for issue #22, covering the Super Bowl. We hope you enjoy the continuing coverage and we thank you for your support and feedback. For even more daily updated betting materials, visit our web property, VegasInsider.com, the Global Leader in Sports Gaming Information.

WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY

INDEXINDEXRecent NFL Divisional Playoff Trends ................................................. 2

NFL Matchups ...................................................................................... 6

National Championship Game ....................................................... 10

Football Line Moves .......................................................................... 12

111 BALTIMORE 49 47.5P: 1:35PM C: 3:35PM E: 4:35PM NBC

112 NEW ENGLAND -7 -7113 CAROLINA 40.5 39.5

P: 5:15PM C: 7:15PM E: 8:15PM FOX114 SEATTLE -12 -11

115 DALLAS 52.5 53P: 10:05AM C: 12:05PM E: 1:05PM FOX

116 GREEN BAY -6.5 -6117 INDIANAPOLIS 53 54

P: 1:40PM C: 3:40PM E: 4:40PM CBS118 DENVER -7 -7

277 OHIO ST 72 75P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN

278 OREGON -7 -6.5

NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFSSATURDAY, JANUARY 10, 2015

COLLEGE FOOTBALL NAT'L CHAMPIONSHIPMONDAY, JANUARY 12, 2015

AT&T STADIUM - ARLINGTON, TX

SUNDAY, JANUARY 11, 2015

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THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3


Last week we dedicated our feature NFL article to looking at key trends for the wildcard games, so like the league itself, this week we will be moving on to the divisional round. With Carolina, Baltimore, Indianapolis and Dallas joining the top two seeded teams in each conference, we now have just eight teams still finding themselves in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy, and starting on Saturday, you’ll finally get to see the league’s best teams in action again. That is, if you consider the teams that earned the byes last weekend to be the best by virtue of their won-lost marks. Those clubs are of course New England & Denver in the AFC for the third straight season, and Seattle & Green Bay in the NFC.

If this season is like any other in recent memory, not all of the Top 4 seeded teams will advance to next week’s championship games. In each of the last three seasons, exactly one road team of the four has moved on. So if that pattern holds, one of this year’s four hosts will also be eliminated early. However, with each of the hosts favored by at least 6.5-points as of presstime, the odds of that are somewhat diminished. The 2008 playoff season was the last time that four divisional round hosts were favored by more than this year’s quartet, and for the record, two upsets were pulled that weekend.

Recent years have produced some wild action in this round, and perhaps this weekend could just as easily be called the wildcard playoffs. The divisional playoffs have also produced a lot of points recently, with 12 of the 16 games over the last four years having surpassed the posted total. However, three of the four games went UNDER a year ago. With three of this year’s hosts boasting potent offenses, you would have to think that the OVER pattern has a good chance of continuing. In 2012, the average point output in the four divisional round games was 69.0 PPG, easily the highest ever.

So, let’s start digging through the NFL Divisional Playoff log of the last 13 seasons to see if we can’t uncover some trends and systems that we can apply when handicapping this weekend’s games.

General Divisional Playoff ATS Trends• The OUTRIGHT winner has covered the

pointspread in 23 of the L27 Divisional Playoff games. Interestingly, all four of those winning teams that failed to cover the pointspread did so in the last three seasons,

with Seattle and Denver, the eventual Super Bowl combatants, failing to beat the Vegas number in the divisional round.

• Road teams have turned the tide on hosts of late in this playoff round, going 7-3 ATS in the L10 games. However, they have only won outright in three of those tries.

• There have only been three road favorites in the L21 years of the divisional playoffs, and San Francisco became the first to win in that scenario last year, beating Carolina 23-10. Obviously there is no chance of a road favorite this weekend barring some freak practice injury or illness in the coming days.

• Pointspreads have proven to be a strong giveaway as to which team should win in divisional playoff games, as home favorites of 5-points or less are just 9-8 SU & 5-11-1 ATS since ’02, while those laying 5.5-points or more are 23-10 SU & 16-17 ATS.

• Double-digit home favorites in the divisional round are just 3-3 SU & ATS since 2006. According to that history, Carolina has a 50/50 chance of upsetting Seattle.

• In inter-divisional games of this playoff round, the road teams are on a 3-1 SU & ATS surge.

• Of the teams playing this weekend, in the L13 years, Carolina is 0-2 SU & ATS in divisional round playoff games, while Seattle is 2-1 SU & ATS. Green Bay is 2-4 SU & 3-3 ATS while Dallas is 0-2 SU & ATS. In the AFC, Denver is 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS, Indianapolis is 3-3 SU & ATS. New England is 8-2 SU & 5-4-1 ATS, and Baltimore is 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS, winning most recently in the miracle at Denver in 2012.

Divisional Trends by Seed Number• Teams fight all season long to half home-field

advantage throughout their conference playoffs, however, that advantage has not lasted long as #1 seeds are on a skid of just 13-9 SU & 5-17 ATS dating back to 2004.

• Making matters worse for the #1 seeds is their record versus #6’s, as in that matchup the home teams are just 3-5 SU & 1-7 ATS since ’06, with both Seattle and Denver winning but failing to cover a season ago.

• #2 seeds have actually been significantly better than #1’s when it comes to protecting home field advantage in the divisional round, going 14-6 SU & 12-8 ATS over the L10 playoff seasons, including 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the L8.

• Carolina’s loss to San Francisco a year ago halted a trend of #2 seed’s in the NFC being on a roll with four SU & ATS wins in a row while outscoring foes 37.2-22.5.

• NFC #1 seeds are just 1-7 ATS in their L8 games, beware Seattle backers.

• Of the last 15 teams that pulled off road wins in the wildcard round to advance to this weekend, 13 of them have covered the pointspread (87%) and nine have won a second straight road game outright. Clearly New England fans should be concerned.

Divisional Trends regarding Totals• Of the L14 divisional playoff games with

posted totals of 41.5 or less, nine have gone UNDER the total. Similarly, those games with extremely high totals, 49 or more, have

RECENT NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF TRENDS


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shown a penchant for going OVER the total, 9-3-1 since’02.

• In the L16 matchups between a #1 seed and a wildcard team, or a road winner from the prior weekend, UNDER the total is 11-4-1 with the home team scoring just 20.6 PPG.

• #2 seeds are 14-8 OVER the total in the L22 divisional playoff games. More recently, #1 seeds have tended to go OVER, 6-2 in the L8.

• Both of last year’s NFC divisional round playoff games went UNDER the total, ending a string of six straight OVER’s.

• Home teams that have covered the pointspread in divisional round games have also gone OVER the total in seven straight contests.

Following the Line/Total MovesLast week we showed you how sharp bettors were right in 16 of the L20 wildcard playoff games heading into last weekend’s action. This was determined to be when the line moves off its opening position towards either team. This same group has been nearly as sharp in the divisional round too, going 9-2 ATS since ’09. The only losers in that span were in 2011, when bettors favored Baltimore in Pittsburgh but were beaten by a late Steelers TD that ensured a cover as 3-point home favorites, and a year ago, when bettors more the Seahawks, 23-15 winners, up a half point to a 9-point favorite. Interestingly, only one of the L25 divisional round games moved more than a point off the opening number, and that came last year, when Denver opened at -9.5, only to be bet down to -7.5 over San Diego. Oddsmakers should be commended for that. Don’t expect much movement up to kickoff in 2015 either, as lines have been stable since opening.

Bettors have picked on early totals as well, going 12-7 in the L17 divisional playoff games that have seen the total move off the opening number.

Stats generated in Divisional Playoff Games• It has taken more points to win in the

divisional playoff round as opposed to the wildcard round. Last week we explained that only one home team that topped the 20-point mark lost in the L12 years of wildcard playoff action, going 28-1 SU & 23-4-1 ATS. The benchmark for the divisional round is 27 points, as home teams that reach that point total are 23-2 SU & 18-7 ATS since ’02. Interestingly, both Seattle (23) and Denver (24) topped the 20-point mark last year in the divisional round but failed to cover the pointspread.

• Failing to reach the 27-point mark has left home teams with an 11-16 SU & 4-22-1 ATS record since ’02 in divisional playoff games. If you consider this year’s top four teams, the Seahawks scored the fewest points per game in the regular season at 24.6. Coincidentally, when we pointed out this team last year, it was Carolina, the only home team that lost.

• The magic point total for road teams in

divisional playoff action has proven to be 28 points, as they are 9-5 SU & 12-3 ATS when they do. When scoring 14 points or less, the chance of a road team winning in this round drops dramatically to 1-16 SU & 3-13-1 ATS.

• The potency of the road team typically controls the total result. When road teams in the divisional round score 24 points over more, OVER is 19-2. When road teams fail to reach 17 points, UNDER is 15-3.

• Teams that gain more first downs are 15-8 ATS in the L6 divisional playoff seasons.

• Teams that control the time of possession are just 11-13 ATS in the divisional playoffs since ’09.

• Divisional playoff teams that gain more yards rushing in their playoff games are 17-7 ATS over the L6 seasons. At the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a divisional playoff game are 10-6 ATS since 2010. If you recall, running the football also proved a very important ingredient in the wildcard success recipe.

• Putting up big passing numbers in divisional playoff games has also been big a key to success, since teams with an edge in that stat are 15-9 ATS since ’09.

• Additionally, teams that make the most of their passing opportunities or hit big plays are also quite successful. In fact, teams gaining more yards per pass attempt in a divisional playoff game are 15-4 ATS over the L5 seasons.

• The turnover has also been a huge factor in winning or losing divisional playoff games of late, as teams committing fewer turnovers than their opponent have gone 20-5 SU & 18-4 ATS since ‘08.

Teams’ Regular Season Won-Lost Record Trends• Home teams that won 13 or more games in

the regular season are just 10-11 SU & 5-16 ATS in the divisional playoffs since ’06. When matched up against a team that won 11 or more games in the regular season, that mark drops to just 4-6 SU & 1-9 ATS during that span.

• There seems to be a noticeable difference in success levels for road teams in the divisional playoff round that won 10 or less games in the regular season as opposed to those that were 11-5 or better. The lesser group is just 7-21 SU & 13-14-1 ATS since ’02, while the more elite group was 11-12 SU & 16-7 ATS. Dallas & Indianapolis qualify for 2015 in that later group.

• Home teams that won at least four more games during the regular season than their divisional playoff opponent are 9-2 SU & 5-6 ATS since ’05. Seattle will test this trend in 2015.

Teams’ Regular Season Offensive Statistics Trends• Teams that scored more points per game

during the regular season are just 14-10 SU & 12-12 ATS over the L5 divisional playoff seasons.

• Teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are 18-18 SU & 23-13 ATS since ’06,

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including 7-1 ATS the last two years. Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush were 19-17 SU & 24-12 ATS.

• Passing yardage has meant very little in terms of divisional playoff success, with teams owning an edge in total offensive passing yardage going just 19-17 SU & 16-20 ATS over the L9 seasons in this playoff round. More efficient passing yards per attempt teams share the same 19-17 SU & 16-20 ATS mark.

• Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season own a slight edge when it comes to divisional playoff success, going 22-14 SU & 19-17 ATS over the L9 seasons. However, the offensive yards per play statistic doesn’t reflect that level of outright success at all, as teams with an edge in that offensive category are just 12-12 SU & 13-11 ATS over the L6 years.

• Unlike the wildcard round, offensive yards per point has not proven to be an effective statistical indicator, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point are just 17-15 SU & 12-20 ATS in the divisional playoff round since ’07.

• Completely throw out the offensive turnovers statistic since teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponent are only 10-16 SU & 11-15 ATS since ’08 in divisional playoff games.

• Teams that converted 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season were just 18-18 SU & 12-24 ATS in the L36 divisional playoff games.

Teams’ Regular Season Defensive Statistics Trends• Teams that allowed fewer points per game

during the regular season are 10-6 SU & ATS in the divisional round over the L4 years, but prior to that were just 7-10 SU & 4-13 in divisional playoff games.

• Teams that allowed fewer rushing yards per game are on a surge of 15-9 SU & 13-11 ATS in the divisional playoff round, however, they were 0-4 ATS last year. Those that allowed fewer yards per rush are even better for a more extended period at 27-7 SU & 22-12 ATS.

• Divisional playoff teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed over their opponent are a healthy 22-10 SU & 19-13 ATS over the L8 seasons in this round.

• Teams with the edge in defensive pass efficiency are on a nice run of 17-7 SU & 15-9 ATS over the L6 divisional playoff seasons.

• Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively own a record of 14-10 SU & ATS since ’09 while those that held an edge in yards allowed per play were a bit better outright at 16-8 SU & 14-10 ATS.

• When analyzing divisional playoff statistical matchups, defensive yards per point is NOT the golden nugget it was in the wildcard round, as teams with an edge there are just 18-16 SU & 16-18 ATS in the L34 games of this round.

• Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are 16-7 SU but 19-4 ATS since ’09 in divisional

playoff games. Incidentally, Dallas, Carolina, Indianapolis, and New England hold the edge in this stat this weekend.

• Teams that stopped 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are on a 16-10 SU & 18-8 ATS run in the L26 divisional playoff games.

Teams’ Regular Season Statistics Combined TrendCombing the ability to run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense, two of the more successful angles from above, teams with an edge in yards per rush on BOTH sides of the ball are on a 18-3 ATS run in the divisional playoff round! Baltimore, Seattle, Dallas, and Denver would be your ATS choices for 2015 if the trend holds true.

SummaryConsidering what we’ve analyzed with regards to divisional playoff performance and statistics, it would seem that the better defensive teams would have a greater chance of advancing to the championship games next weekend than the offensive minded clubs. Of course, boasting elite quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady never hurts, as that can often be the great equalizer. Be cautious should you go feel the urge to bet against those three past Super Bowl champions.

Just like the wildcard round, it seems that strength up front, good quarterbacking, a strong defense, and the backing of sharp bettors is a good recipe to start with as you sit down to handicap this week’s games. Of course, the NFL playoffs have actually made little sense lately to anyone who had grown accustomed to penciling in the top seeded teams and predicting just an upset or two along the way.

Best of luck this weekend and don’t be shocked to see a pair of matchups you might not have expected next weekend when we review the conference championships.


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Date Day Seed# - Home Score Seed# - Road Score OL FL OT FT SU ATS O/U Conf

1/15/05 Saturday #2 - ATLANTA 47 #5 - ST LOUIS 17 -7 -6.5 49 49.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/15/05 Saturday #1 - PITTSBURGH 20 #5 - NY JETS 17 -8.5 -9 34 35.5 HOME ROAD OVER AFC1/16/05 Sunday #1 - PHILADELPHIA 27 #6 - MINNESOTA 14 -9.5 -8 49 47 HOME HOME UNDER NFC1/16/05 Sunday #2 - NEW ENGLAND 20 #3 - INDIANAPOLIS 3 -2.5 -1 50 51 HOME HOME UNDER AFC

1/14/06 Saturday #1 - SEATTLE 20 #6 - WASHINGTON 10 -8.5 -9.5 41 41 HOME HOME UNDER NFC1/14/06 Saturday #2 - DENVER 27 #4 - NEW ENGLAND 13 -3 -3 44 45.5 HOME HOME UNDER AFC1/15/06 Sunday #2 - CHICAGO 21 #5 - CAROLINA 29 -3 -2.5 32 31 ROAD ROAD OVER NFC1/15/06 Sunday #1 - INDIANAPOLIS 18 #6 - PITTSBURGH 21 -8.5 -10 46.5 48 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC

1/13/07 Saturday #2 - NEW ORLEANS 27 #3 - PHILADELPHIA 24 -4 -5.5 48 49 HOME ROAD OVER NFC1/13/07 Saturday #2 - BALTIMORE 6 #3 - INDIANAPOLIS 15 -3.5 -4 42 41 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC1/14/07 Sunday #1 - CHICAGO 27 #4 - SEATTLE 24 -8 -9 38 37 HOME ROAD OVER NFC1/14/07 Sunday #1 - SAN DIEGO 21 #4 - NEW ENGLAND 24 -4.5 -5 47 46 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC

1/12/08 Saturday #2 - GREEN BAY 42 #3 - SEATTLE 20 -9 -7.5 40.5 43.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/12/08 Saturday #1 - NEW ENGLAND 31 #5 - JACKSONVILLE 20 -12 -14 48 51 HOME ROAD Push AFC1/13/08 Sunday #2 - INDIANAPOLIS 24 #3 - SAN DIEGO 28 -8 -11 49 46.5 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC1/13/08 Sunday #1 - DALLAS 17 #5 - NY GIANTS 21 -7 -7 48 47.5 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC

1/10/09 Saturday #2 - CAROLINA 13 #4 - ARIZONA 33 -9.5 -10 46.5 50 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC1/10/09 Saturday #1 - TENNESSEE 10 #6 - BALTIMORE 13 -3 -3 34 33.5 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC1/11/09 Sunday #1 - NY GIANTS 11 #6 - PHILADELPHIA 23 -5 -4 40.5 39 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC1/11/09 Sunday #2 - PITTSBURGH 35 #4 - SAN DIEGO 24 -6 -6.5 40 38 HOME HOME OVER AFC

1/16/10 Saturday #1 - NEW ORLEANS 45 #4 - ARIZONA 14 -6.5 -7.5 56 56.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/16/10 Saturday #1 - INDIANAPOLIS 20 #6 - BALTIMORE 3 -6.5 -6.5 44.5 44 HOME HOME UNDER AFC1/17/10 Sunday #2 - MINNESOTA 34 #3 - DALLAS 3 -3 -3 48 45 HOME HOME UNDER NFC1/17/10 Sunday #2 - SAN DIEGO 14 #5 - NY JETS 17 -9 -8.5 42.5 43 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC

1/15/11 Saturday #2 - PITTSBURGH 31 #5 - BALTIMORE 24 -3.5 -3 37 38 HOME HOME OVER AFC1/15/11 Saturday #1 - ATLANTA 21 #6 - GREEN BAY 48 -1.5 -1 45.5 44 ROAD ROAD OVER NFC1/16/11 Sunday #2 - CHICAGO 35 #4 - SEATTLE 24 -10 -10 40 42 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/16/11 Sunday #1 - NEW ENGLAND 21 #6 - NY JETS 28 -9 -9 45 45 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC

1/14/12 Saturday #1 - NEW ENGLAND 45 #4 - DENVER 10 -14 -14 50.5 51 HOME HOME OVER AFC1/14/12 Saturday #2 - SAN FRANCISCO 36 #3 - NEW ORLEANS 32 3 3 47 46 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/15/12 Sunday #2 - BALTIMORE 20 #3 - HOUSTON 13 -8 -7.5 38 37 HOME ROAD UNDER AFC1/15/12 Sunday #1 - GREEN BAY 20 #4 - NY GIANTS 37 -9.5 -8.5 51 54 ROAD ROAD OVER NFC

1/12/13 Saturday #1 - DENVER 35 #4 - BALTIMORE 38 -9 -9 46 44 ROAD ROAD OVER AFC1/12/13 Saturday #2 - SAN FRANCISCO 45 #3 - GREEN BAY 31 -3 -3 45.5 45 HOME HOME OVER NFC1/13/13 Sunday #1 - ATLANTA 30 #5 - SEATTLE 28 -3 -3 44.5 46.5 HOME ROAD OVER NFC1/13/13 Sunday #2 - NEW ENGLAND 41 #3 - HOUSTON 28 -9 -9 49 50 HOME HOME OVER AFC

1/11/14 Saturday #2 - NEW ENGLAND 43 #4 - INDIANAPOLIS 22 -7 -7 52.5 50.5 HOME HOME OVER AFC1/11/14 Saturday #1 - SEATTLE 23 #6 - NEW ORLEANS 15 -8.5 -9 48 44 HOME ROAD UNDER NFC1/12/14 Sunday #2 - CAROLINA 10 #5 - SAN FRANCISCO 23 1 1 43 41.5 ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC1/12/14 Sunday #1 - DENVER 24 #6 - SAN DIEGO 17 -9.5 -7.5 54.5 55 HOME ROAD UNDER AFC

2013 Season

2006 Season

2012 Season

2004 Season

2005 Season

2011 Season

2007 Season

2008 Season

2009 Season

2010 Season

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAME LOGS

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AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF(111) BALTIMORE [SU:11-6 | ATS:9-8] AT (112) NEW ENGLAND (-7 | 47.5) [SU:12-4 | ATS:9-7]

JANUARY 10, 2015 4:35 PM on NBC - GILLETTE STADIUM (FOXBORO, MA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BALTIMORE 25.8 21 28-122 [4.4] 34-21-239 [7.0] 14.0 18.8 20 24-87 [3.6] 38-24-253 [6.7] 18.1 +4 +7.0 NEW ENGLAND 29.2 23 27-108 [3.9] 38-24-258 [6.8] 12.5 19.6 21 26-104 [4.0] 36-21-240 [6.7] 17.6 +12 +9.6

New England has proven to be the best team in the AFC, but even they realize what lies ahead having to face Baltimore. The Ravens 6-4 and 7-3 ATS on the postseason road since 2008 and three of those covers and two victories came at New England. The return of Haloti Ngata made a big impact to Baltimore’s interior defense which will focus on cutting off the Patriots running game. Baltimore understands its pass rush has to bother Tom Brady, especially in his face, with Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil leading the charge. Joe Flacco was back to form against Pittsburgh and will look to duplicate or surpass effort, with RB Justin Forsett being an important key for Baltimore.

Like with Peyton Manning, New England realizes their window of opportunity is shrinking to win Super Bowls with Tom Brady, who is 37 years old. The Patriots defense overcame significant losses at linebacker and still managed to finish 13th in total defense. What New England’s defense has to do is stifle Baltimore’s run game and not allow big gains down the field in the passing game to the Ravens. Bill Belichick will find creative ways to get the pigskin to TE Rob Gronkowski, using various clear-outs to isolate him on safeties. New England will try and find the hot running back and ride him try to create one on one matchups for Shane Vereen. The Patriots have enjoyed recent success at home against teams who score 24 or more points with a 6-0 ATS record.

GAME TRENDS• NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS(L2Y) at HOME - OU line of 45 or more• BALTIMORE is 4-9 ATS(L2Y) on ROAD - Conference games• NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - Against decent rushing teams averaging more

than 4.3 yards per carry(CS)

HEAD-TO-HEADSince 2004, not much to choose from the wagering perspective, with the teams 4-4-1 ATS and New England 6-3 SU. Three of Baltimore’s covers have been in the playoffs which is why in part the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The underdog is 5-2-1 ATS since 2007 and the Over is 5-3 in that exact time span.

STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?111 BALTIMORE 47.5 26.5 19.0 20.7 21.3 112 NEW ENGLAND -7 30.5 -7.4 27.1 26.6 28.1 VI PICKS

BEST BET Jason says: When two of the finest playoff performing quarterbacks in NFL history go head-to-head, the most natural wager has to be an OVER. Joe Flacco has been insanely good in the postseason, particularly on the road. Just last week he led his team to 30 points and a 13-point win at Pittsburgh. I think I saw that he has gone some 160+ passes on the playoff road without an interception. On the other sideline of course is Tom Brady, who, after a slow start, finished the season on fire. The Patriots have been an offensive juggernaut at home against good teams (+6.0 PPG) the last two seasons, going over in all seven games while scoring 36.7 PPG. The combined score of those games was 61.3 PPG. That incidentally is a just a little more than New England’s home (33.0) and Baltimore’s road (26.2) scoring averages in 2014. Last time Baltimore played in this round it was a 38-35 shootout win at Denver, a similar explosion wouldn’t surprise me. OVER.

VI Jim 84-87 (49%) 32-19 (63%)*

VI Jason 75-96 (44%)18-34 (35%)*

VI Paul 88-83 (51%) 24-28 (46%)*

Power Ratings80-81 (49%)

Effective Strength 62-102 (40%)

Forecaster 78-93 (46%)

Bettors Ratings 88-83 (51%)

Consensus 80-91 (47%)

Saturday, January 10, 2015 - (111) BALTIMORE at (112) NEW ENGLAND (-7)Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore* New

England

New

England

Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore

Saturday, January 10, 2015 - (111) BALTIMORE at (112) NEW ENGLAND - TOTAL (47.5)OVER OVER* UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER OVER OVER

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)


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NFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF(113) CAROLINA [SU:8-8-1 | ATS:9-8] AT (114) SEATTLE (-10.5 | 39.5) [SU:12-4 | ATS:10-6]

JANUARY 10, 2015 8:15 PM on FOX - CENTURYLINK FIELD (SEATTLE, WA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CAROLINA 21.5 22 30-131 [4.3] 34-20-218 [6.4] 16.2 22.9 19 24-107 [4.4] 35-22-217 [6.3] 14.1 +3 -1.4 SEATTLE 24.6 20 33-173 [5.3] 28-18-203 [7.2] 15.3 15.9 17 24-81 [3.4] 32-20-186 [5.9] 16.8 +10 +8.7

Carolina’s defense gave an historic performance against Arizona and will need at least effort-wise a similar showing to knock the defending Super Bowl champions. The Panthers got superior performances at all three levels of defense and will need DE Charles Johnson, linebackers Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis and its secondary to be at its best. Cam Newton gave a gritty performance but to defeat Seattle, he needs to spend the week working on fundamentals to improve his mechanics and not miss as many open receivers and have his team settling for field goals. With how good the Seahawks are in the secondary, Newton needs pinpoint accuracy. Carolina is playing into revenge from a 13-9 home loss and is 11-2 ATS in this spot the past three seasons.

Seattle doesn’t have to make many changes to face Carolina, mostly just play their game. On defense, the Seahawks will have to prepare for the run option with Newton, but otherwise they seemed perfectly suited to shutdown the Panthers screen game and pass offense. On offense, Seattle knows rushing yards will not come easy between the tackles and will likely have Russell Wilson use a moving pocket to use their tight ends against the ‘Cats active front seven. Seattle is 6-0 ATS after five or more consecutive wins the last three seasons and will look to take advantage of the time off and their amazing home crowd to grab an early lead and find out what Carolina has to come from behind on the road.

GAME TRENDS• SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3 yards per

carry(CS)• CAROLINA is 7-17-1 ATS(L25G) - Against solid defensive teams yielding less than 5.1 yards per

play(CS)• SEATTLE is 12-3 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - VS Opp With 2000 or more travel miles

HEAD-TO-HEADSeattle won the earlier meeting this year 13-9 as six-point road favorites. That low score has made it three in row for the Under and since 2004 is 4-3. The Seahawks will have the home field edge the home team has a modest 4-3 spread edge in the last 11 years. With Carolina’s earlier cover, they are 3-4 ATS and the underdog is 4-3 ATS.

STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?113 CAROLINA 39.5 23.0 13.5 15.9 12.8 114 SEATTLE -10.5 31.5 -11.8 27.9 24.7 27.7 VI PICKS

BEST BET Paul says: The Carolina and Seattle game for my money has all the makings of an UNDER. Hard pressed to believe the Panthers will move the ball with any regularity against the Seahawks staunch defense, since other than Cam Newton taking off on a jaunt as a scrambler, how does Carolina string consecutive first downs together to score to get into scoring position without hitting a long pass? For as great as Seattle has played down the stretch, other than the prime-time game against Arizona when they scored 35 points and had 500+ yards offense, Pete Carroll’s crew has scored 19.8 points on average in five of the six victories in this win streak. Play UNDER the 40 points in this spot.


VI Jim 84-87 (49%) 32-19 (63%)*

VI Jason 75-96 (44%)18-34 (35%)*

VI Paul 88-83 (51%) 24-28 (46%)*






Saturday, January 10, 2015 - (113) CAROLINA at (114) SEATTLE (-10.5)Carolina* Seattle* Carolina Seattle Seattle Carolina Seattle Seattle

Saturday, January 10, 2015 - (113) CAROLINA at (114) SEATTLE - TOTAL (39.5)OVER UNDER UNDER* OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER


8




NFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF(117) DALLAS [SU:13-4 | ATS:10-7] AT (118) GREEN BAY (-6 | 53) [SU:12-4 | ATS:9-6-1]

JANUARY 11, 2015 1:05 PM on FOX - LAMBEAU FIELD (GREEN BAY, WI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DALLAS 28.9 21 31-143 [4.6] 30-20-237 [7.9] 13.1 21.9 20 24-102 [4.2] 35-23-255 [7.2] 16.3 +8 +7.0 GREEN BAY 30.4 22 27-120 [4.4] 33-22-266 [7.9] 12.7 21.8 21 28-120 [4.3] 35-21-226 [6.4] 15.9 +14 +8.6

Is this the Cowboys year? You have to begin to wonder after falling behind Detroit 14-0 and coming back to win 24-20. While it might be cold in Green Bay, Dallas will be fearless headed to the frozen tundra because they are 8-0 (7-1 ATS) on the road this season and five off the last six teams that had the same regular season away record went to the Super Bowl. The best way to attack Green Bay’s passing attack is with press coverage and Dallas was only 26th in pass defense and 20th in yards per attempted allowed. Of equal importance is stuffing Eddie Lacy and the Pack’s running game. On offense, Tony Romo has to make the right reads and the offensive line will certainly have the chance to dominate the Packers smallish defensive front.

Green Bay was also 8-0 (6-1-1 ATS), except they put together their record at Lambeau Field where they have averaged 39.7 points a game. Aaron Rodgers has not thrown a pick at home all year and has to hope the time off and treatment helped his balky calk. The Packers will need his mobility to run or move the pocket to generate big plays. If the Green Bay offense stalls, they will lean on Lacy to set the table, with his Jerome Bettis battering style, yet being light on his feet. On defense, DeMarco Murray will get his yards; the Packers defense has to make sure it is three or fewer yards a carry, not four or more.

GAME TRENDS• GREEN BAY is 9-1-1 ATS(CS) - On grass field• DALLAS is 3-9 ATS(L12G) - In January• DALLAS is 10-2 OVER(L5Y) - VS NFC-NORTH HEAD-TO-HEADThe last time Green Bay hosted a playoff game versus Dallas was the famous “Ice Bowl” in 1967. In the mid-1990’s they faced three times in Dallas and the Cowboys won all three, covering twice. In more recent times, Green Bay is 4-2 ATS and going back to 1997; the Packers are 3-1 SU and ATS at home. Strange fact – The SU Winner is 15-0 ATS.

STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?115 DALLAS 53 28.0 22.2 21.9 UNDER 22.7 116 GREEN BAY -6 30.5 -5.9 28.5 25.9 31.5 VI PICKS

BEST BET Jim says: What an intriguing matchup for a divisional round playoff game, Dallas visiting Green Bay. By now you all know, Green Bay has not lost at home this season while Dallas has not lost on the road. The Packers scored 39.7 PPG in their home games, and I believe the last time that Aaron Rodgers threw an interception at home was in December of 2012. The Cowboys yield an ugly 7.2 yards per pass attempt. The Cowboys scored 34.4 PPG on the road, and their balanced offense gained 6.3 yards per play in those contests, a lofty number. Green Bay has been good but not great on defense. It all adds up to this question…how is either team going to be able to stop the other consistently? In my opinion, Dallas will have to score in the mid-30’s to win this game. If you recall last year, the Packers won in Dallas in December 37-36, even without Rodgers. I can see a 38-30 type of game in this one, and though I think it will be Green Bay moving on, I’d rather put my money on the OVER.


VI Jim 84-87 (49%) 32-19 (63%)*

VI Jason 75-96 (44%)18-34 (35%)*

VI Paul 88-83 (51%) 24-28 (46%)*






Sunday, January 11, 2015 - (115) DALLAS at (116) GREEN BAY (-6)Green

Bay

Dallas Dallas Dallas Green

Bay

Dallas Green

Bay

Dallas

Sunday, January 11, 2015 - (115) DALLAS at (116) GREEN BAY - TOTAL (53)OVER* UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER



9


AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF(119) INDIANAPOLIS [SU:12-5 | ATS:11-5-1] AT (120) DENVER (-7 | 54) [SU:12-4 | ATS:8-8]

JANUARY 11, 2015 4:40 PM on CBS - SPORTS AUTHORITY FIELD AT MILE HIGH (DENVER, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF INDIANAPOLIS 28.5 23 26-102 [3.9] 41-26-310 [7.5] 14.5 22.3 19 26-113 [4.3] 34-20-224 [6.6] 15.1 -5 +6.2 DENVER 30.1 22 28-112 [4.0] 38-25-291 [7.7] 13.4 22.1 19 22-80 [3.7] 40-25-225 [5.6] 13.8 +5 +8.0

Andrew Luck had told Phil Simms and Jim Nantz of CBS the offensive line was not going to be an issue before the Cincinnati contest and Luck was proven correct. This week we will get a much better indication on how far the Indianapolis offensive line has really come against Denver’s No. 3 ranked defense, which was tied for ninth with 41 sacks. Luck will have to continue to use Dan Herron as their best run option and keep him involved in the passing game, without the two fumbles from last week. On defense, the Colts physical corners have to play lock down defense and they must pressure Peyton Manning incessantly. Indy is 17-6 ATS after two straight wins by 14 or more points.

Denver is unbeaten at home but just 4-4 ATS and one of the spread losses came in Week 1 to Indianapolis, winning 31-24 as eight point home favorites. Indianapolis will face a far different Broncos team this time around, one which is more balanced with a stronger running game and somewhat less dependent on Manning to do everything. Whether it is because Manning is hurting or coach John Fox and John Elway decided to do something similar to what Elway did at the end of career, we will likely find out later. Manning still has multiple weapons. The Broncos defense will have to focus on winning first and second down to make Luck a thrower on third and long. Denver is 21-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

GAME TRENDS• INDIANAPOLIS is 11-1 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 14.4

yards per point(CS)• DENVER is 6-14 ATS(L20G) at HOME - Against anemic teams being outscored by opponents by

more than 8.0 points per game(CS)• DENVER is 14-2 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - AGAINST GOOD TEAMS WITH 60%+ WINNING PCT(CS)

HEAD-TO-HEADMaybe the best way to look this matchup is the Peyton Manning effect. The teams Manning has been in charge of are 7-4 ATS and when he’s been in the role of favorite those clubs are 5-4 ATS. When Manning has been in control of the home team, they are 5-2 ATS. This will not come as surprise to know the Over is 8-1 recently.

STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?117 INDIANAPOLIS 54 27.0 22.4 23.8 23.7 118 DENVER -7 31.0 -7.3 29.7 28.5 30.5 VI PICKS

BEST BET Paul says: If you bought this newsletter a year ago at this time, you might recall me saying this might well be Denver’s last rodeo with Peyton Manning’s advancing age and I’ll stick with the same story. I’m not saying the Broncos even make the Super Bowl, but with this being a home game, Denver lays it all out on the field and plays a superior football game against Indianapolis. I truly believe Manning has been battling an ailment of some sort and with the pass catching core banged up beginning with the loss to St. Louis in mid-November, coach John Fox pulled in the reins and started running the ball. While the Colts have very good cornerbacks, I believe a healthier and rested Denver team will bring their A-game and win this in the 10-14 points range.


VI Jim 84-87 (49%) 32-19 (63%)*

VI Jason 75-96 (44%)18-34 (35%)*

VI Paul 88-83 (51%) 24-28 (46%)*






Sunday, January 11, 2015 - (117) INDIANAPOLIS at (118) DENVER (-7)Indianapolis* Denver* Denver* Denver Denver Indianapolis Indianapolis Denver

Sunday, January 11, 2015 - (117) INDIANAPOLIS at (118) DENVER - TOTAL (54)OVER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER


10




NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME(277) OHIO ST [SU:13-1 | ATS:9-5] VS (278) OREGON (-7 | 74) [SU:13-1 | ATS:10-4]

JANUARY 12, 2015 8:30 PM on ESPN - AT&T STADIUM (ARLINGTON, TX)[NEUT] Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OHIO ST (5) 45.0 26 45-262 [5.8] 28-17-247 [9.0] 11.3 22.1 19 36-142 [3.9] 33-18-192 [5.9] 15.1 +10 +22.9 OREGON (3) 47.2 28 44-242 [5.5] 31-22-310 [10.0] 11.7 22.3 23 38-156 [4.2] 40-24-266 [6.7] 18.9 +20 +24.9

Cardale Jones being a true third-string quarterback is hogwash. He is surrounded by exceptional teammates, but Jones has made it obvious he could be the regular starter for many college football programs. Since the loss to Virginia Tech, the Buckeyes offense line has played like a bulldozing company, moving objects out of the way. Ohio State is averaging 280.7 YPG on the ground and allowing Jones to play to his strengths as a passer. How this group handles Oregon’s blitzing will be important. The Ohio State front four was supposed to one of the best in the country coming into the season and they did not disappoint and how well they shoot the gaps against the Ducks offense to slow their running game will tell the tale if the Buckeyes stay in the game. Since winning the national championship in 2003, Ohio State is 5-5 and 6-4 ATS and 4-2 ATS as underdogs in bowls.

Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota has seen it all as far as college football is concerned, with 40 starts in almost three seasons. Mariota runs an offense which has scored 47.2 points a game and is more balanced than most people’s checking accounts. The Ducks average 7.4 yards per play and they have the ability to strike quickly or grind out a drive. The offensive line became a complete unit after the loss to Arizona with the return of senior tackle Jeff Fisher. Since Fisher’s return, Oregon is averaging 260 YPG on the ground (up from 209) and it is not a coincidence the Ducks are 9-0 SU and ATS since. The Ducks defense has surrendered more than 20 points once in their last six games. They attack the line of scrimmage with abandon and like their offense; attempt to do almost anything to get teams out of their comfort zone. In the last ten years Oregon is 6-4 SU and ATS in bowls and 5-2 ATS as favorites.

GAME TRENDS• OREGON is 11-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 13.2 yards per

point(CS)• OHIO ST is 4-7-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per

carry(CS)• OHIO ST is 10-0 OVER(L2Y) - Against good teams with 80%+ winning pct(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?277 OHIO ST 75 62 32.1 OHST 35.0 OHST 33.0 278 OREGON -7 67 -6 34.1 UNDER 35.1 UNDER 38.4 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThese teams will meet for the seventh time in the Peach Bowl, but the first since 1983, a 20-13 Rebels win. Ole Miss is 5-1 SU, including close wins in the 1956 Cotton Bowl (14-13) and 1948 Delta Bowl (13-9). Gary Patterson is 7-5 SU in bowls, including 6-2 SU since 2005. Hugh Freeze is 2-1 SU/ATS in bowls, with wins over Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. VI PICKS

VI Jim 98-91 (52%) 30-25 (55%)*

VI Jason 92-97 (49%)24-30 (44%)*

VI Paul 90-99 (48%) 22-35 (39%)*






Monday, January 12, 2015 - (277) OHIO ST vs. (278) OREGON (-7)Ohio St Oregon* Ohio St* Ohio St Ohio St Ohio St Ohio St Ohio St

Monday, January 12, 2015 - (277) OHIO ST vs. (278) OREGON - TOTAL (75)UNDER* UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER




11


National Championship Game Log 1999-2014

DATE FAVORITE FAV CONF SCORE UNDERDOG DOG CONF SCORE OL FL OT FT SU ATS O/U SU/ATS SU/ATS1/4/99 FLORIDA ST ACC 16 TENNESSEE SEC 23 -3.5 -5.5 42.5 41.5 DOG DOG UNDER TENNESSEE SEC1/4/00 FLORIDA ST ACC 46 VIRGINIA TECH BIG EAST 29 -7.5 -5.5 49 49.5 FAV FAV OVER FLORIDA ST ACC1/3/01 FLORIDA ST ACC 2 OKLAHOMA BIG 12 13 -11 -9.5 57 56 DOG DOG UNDER OKLAHOMA BIG 121/3/02 MIAMI FL BIG EAST 37 NEBRASKA BIG 12 14 -8 -8.5 52.5 55 FAV FAV UNDER MIAMI FL BIG EAST1/3/03 MIAMI FL BIG EAST 24 OHIO ST BIG TEN 31 -13 -11.5 50.5 47.5 DOG DOG OVER OHIO ST BIG TEN1/4/04 OKLAHOMA BIG 12 14 LSU SEC 21 -5.5 -6 46 46 DOG DOG UNDER LSU SEC1/4/05 OKLAHOMA BIG 12 19 USC PAC 12 55 3 -1 54 51 DOG DOG OVER USC PAC 121/4/06 USC PAC 12 38 TEXAS BIG 12 41 -6 -7 75 69.5 DOG DOG OVER TEXAS BIG 121/8/07 OHIO ST BIG TEN 14 FLORIDA SEC 41 -8 -7 48 47 DOG DOG OVER FLORIDA SEC1/7/08 LSU SEC 38 OHIO ST BIG TEN 24 -3 -3.5 51.5 46.5 FAV FAV OVER LSU SEC1/8/09 FLORIDA SEC 24 OKLAHOMA BIG 12 14 -1.5 -4 73 69 FAV FAV UNDER FLORIDA SEC1/7/10 ALABAMA SEC 37 TEXAS BIG 12 21 -4 -3.5 45.5 44.5 FAV FAV OVER ALABAMA SEC

1/10/11 OREGON PAC 12 19 AUBURN SEC 22 3 -1 74 73.5 DOG DOG UNDER AUBURN SEC1/9/12 ALABAMA SEC 21 LSU SEC 0 1.5 -2.5 39 42 FAV FAV UNDER ALABAMA SEC1/7/13 ALABAMA SEC 42 NOTRE DAME INDPNDNT 14 -8.5 -10 42 39.5 FAV FAV OVER ALABAMA SEC1/6/14 FLORIDA ST ACC 34 AUBURN SEC 31 -9.5 -11.5 65 68 FAV DOG UNDER FSU/AUB ACC/SEC

Top Trends from Recent National Championship Games* Favorites are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in L7 national championship games * Teams failing to score 21 points in national title games are 1-10 SU & ATS* Current Big Ten teams are 1-3 SU & ATS in national title games since '02 * Teams scoring 31 points in national title games are 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS* Pac 12 teams lost both of their most recent national title games, SU & ATS * Favorites of 6-points or more are just 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in national title contests since '01

BEST BETS Jim says: As much as I agree with Paul on his reasoning for backing Ohio State, which I probably will, I have to concede that I like a play on the total a little better, and that play is on the UNDER. This is two underrated defenses going at it, overlooked because their offenses were so strong. I also believe that this total was inflated for no other reason that the fact that Oregon racked up a bunch of second half points in the semifinal game against a Florida State defense that had flat out quit. The Ducks only had 18 points at the half. I also want to point out two historical Oregon games that could play out similarly this year. First, in the 2010 Rose Bowl, the slow plodding Ohio State team of the Big Ten held a similarly potent Ducks offense to 17 points and 260 yards while dominating the time of possession over 2:1. A year later in the national title game, the same stakes as these, Oregon and Auburn battled to a 22-19 decision on a total of 73.5. Why would either of these defenses get ripped up on Monday? I don’t see it, UNDER.

Jason says: I guess I’m the only one of our three handicappers that feels Oregon is the correct side for Monday’s national championship game. In my humble opinion, of the four teams that qualified for the playoffs this inaugural season, one of them was head and shoulders above the rest. That team was Oregon. The Ducks were 7-1 ATS this year against winning teams, outscoring them by an average margin of 47-24.8. They also put up just shy of 50 PPG on the road this season. Those are two signs of a team that takes care of business. You can’t question the hunger of Oregon’s players either, as they are in search of the school’s first national title. If that weren’t enough, they also boast college football’s best player in quarterback Marcus Mariota. When a game of this magnitude presents itself, I look for the best to perform at their best. Go Ducks.

Paul says: I will admit, I never completely let Ohio State’s loss to Virginia Tech go and despite the gaudy numbers the Buckeyes were putting up in the Big Ten, I was not a believer. However, the win over Alabama has changed by mind. The Buckeyes are the only Power 5 team in the country to out-gain every single opponent this season and Cardale Jones is arguably the best third-string quarterback ever. (OK, a little over the top) Ohio State has the ability to match points with the Ducks, has a better overall defense and while Mark Helfrich looks like a very good coach, Urban Meyer is one of the very best. I’ll call for a great game with the outcome three points either way.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME LOGS

12




The bowl season wraps up with the championship game and NFL Division playoffs commence. Here are the early line moves for this week’s gridiron action.

NFL – Saturday (111) BALTIMORE at (112) NEW ENGLAND 4:25 ET NBCThe total on first game of the divisional round of the playoffs has sunk from 49 to 47.5. There is reason to believe this the right direction since off the last six games played between these combatants in New England; four have gone under the total including the last three. Logic would dictate bettors are indicating Baltimore would control the scoring tempo, leading to lower scoring, as compared to the Patriots wanting to score fast and play at a quicker pace. The Ravens have been problematic to New England and are 12-3 UNDER after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in their last game. However, the Brady bunch is 6-0 OVER at home versus good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game the last two seasons. Our Take – Lean Over

NFL – Saturday (113) CAROLINA at (114) SEATTLE 8:15 ET FOXHave to completely agree with football bettors lowering the total from 40.5 to 39.5 in this NFC showdown. Congrats to Carolina for making a great run to get this point with five consecutive victories, but this is where the fun stops. When looking at the Panthers offense, other than potentially the read option with Cam Newton running, what can’t Seattle stop with the rest of their offense? Newton’s mechanics as a passer are off and the Seahawks secondary is better than Carolina’s receivers, thus, hard to imagine many points by the ‘Cats. Conversely, Ron Rivera’s defense is really playing well and let’s not lose sight of the fact Seattle is far from explosive and has scored more than 24 points once since Nov.10th. Both teams prefer to run the ball which takes time off the clock and Carolina is 12-3 UNDER after a dominating performance in which they had 34 or more minutes in time of possession and 24 or more first downs. Only way this game goes Over is turnovers based on field position that leads to quick scores. Our Take – Play Under

NFL – (119) INDIANAPOLIS at (120) DENVER 4:40 ET CBSUnless weather is an issue in the Rockies, the total rising from 53 to 54 seems on point. In the last 11 meetings between these teams, nine have gone past the sportsbooks total. The matchup of Peyton Manning vs. Andrew Luck has produced a pair of OVER’s and while Denver has shifted gears to be more of a running team of late, hard to imagine Manning at some juncture doesn’t starts zinging the pigskin around if the Indianapolis can thwart the Broncos rushing attack. This is one person’s opinion, but I think Manning was injured in

some manner which is why Denver started running the ball more along with receiver injuries, but with two weeks rest I suspect he will be ready to go. Denver is 21-8 OVER playing against a team with a winning record and goes over the number again. Our Take – Play Over

CFB – Monday (277) OHIO STATE vs. (278) OREGON 8:30 ET ESPNEvidently, the only purpose the defense will serve in the national championship game is to get in the way to slow the opponent down and not keep them out of the end zone with the total lifting from 73.5 to 75. It is hard to argue with this logic when you realize Ohio State averages 42.6 points in away games and Oregon quacks in at 49.6. The Buckeyes offensive stature has caught the oddsmakers off guard all year with their 12-2 OVER mark, while they have had a much better feel for the Ducks at 7-7 against the total. While 75 points for a championship games seems outrageous, when you consider the spread at 7, Oregon winning 41-34 to match up the numbers sounds pretty accurate. Our Take – Lean Over

Records:Bowls – 10-8NFL Playoffs – 3-0College – 56-49-1 NFL - 33-33-2

FOOTBALL LINE MOVES

weekly football tip sheet - vegasinsider.coml10 games. however, they have only won outright in three...

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