weekly economic bulletin - india in...

NEWS FEATUREWith GST on its way, India rises to second spot on global biz optimism indexIndia improved its ranking by one spot in a global index of business optimism, with policy reforms andGoods and Services tax (GST) expected to become a reality soon, says a survey.

Economy to gain momentum in second half of FY17: AssochamThe economy is expected to fare better in the second half of the current financial year, backed by a likely risein sales and improved capacity utilisation, though fresh investments and jobs creation might be a concern,according to a report from the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Assocham).

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Amazon will continue to invest heavily in India: Amit AgarwalAmazon.com Inc. will continue investing heavily in India, the chief of its local operations said, dispellingconcerns of slower spending by the US e-commerce company after its chief financial officer Brian Ol-savsky said last week that while the India investments were starting to show results, they had hit margins,contributing to lower-than-expected results in the third quarter.

OVERSEAS INVESTMENTS

UK's Dyson looking to invest Rs 1,200 cr in IndiaBritish technology company that designs and manufactures vacuum cleaners, hand dryers, bladeless fans andheaters is planning a foray into the Indian markets targeting an investment of Rs 1,200 crore over a period offive years.


ITP Division Ministry of

External Affairs Government of India

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TRADE NEWSIndia, Britain sign MoUs on IPR, ease of doing businessIndia and Britain signed memoranda of understanding (MoUs) on intellectual property rights (IPR) and ease ofdoing business following delegation-level talks led by Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Theresa May.


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SECTORAL NEWSIT sector needs to step up innovation: Hamid AnsariThe Indian IT industry will have to step up on innovation amid challenges like need for new products,digital disruption and shrinking manpower requirements triggered by software automation, Vice Presi-dent Hamid Ansari said while inaugurating the new headquarters of the National Association of Soft-ware Services Companies in Noida.


NEWS ROUND-UPIndia attaches highest priority to Nepal ties: PranabIndian President Pranab Mukherjee who is on a three-day state visit to Nepal, the first presidential visit from Indiain 18 years, said India has an abiding interest in peace, stability and development of Nepal and is committed tostrengthening its partnership with the Himalayan neighbour.


WEEKLYECONOMIC BULLETIN

WEEKLYECONOMIC BULLETIN 2

Issue no 700 INovember 01-07, 2016

>> NEWS FEATURE

With GST on its way, India rises to secondspot on global biz optimism indexIndia improved its ranking by one spot in a global index of business optimism, with policy reforms and Goods and Services tax(GST) expected to become a reality soon, says a survey.

According to the latest Grant Thornton InternationalBusiness Report, India was ranked second on the opti-mism index during the third quarter (July-September2016).

Indonesia took the top spot, with the Philippinescoming in third.

India was ranked third during the April-June periodafter being on top for two consecutive quarters.

"The improvement in the optimism ranking in the re-cent past clearly reflects that the reform agenda of thegovernment and its efforts on improving the climatefor doing business are having an impact," Grant Thorn-ton India LLP Partner - India Leadership Team Harish HV said.

High business optimism was also complimented bythe rise of employment expectations. India regained itstop position on this parameter, from second position in the April-June period, while profitability expectations also moved up.

"...all the programs and initiatives of the government as well as its focus on building relationships with all major economicpowers has made India a bright spot in the global economy," Harish said, adding the recent push for GST augurs well andshould give a further boost to business optimism.

While India continues to be amongst the top five countries citing regulations and red tape as a constraint on growth, for thefirst time in the year, the country's ranking on this parameter has dropped from second to fourth.

As per the survey, 59 per cent of the respondents have quoted this as an impediment in the growth prospects compared to64 per cent in the previous quarter. The report is prepared on the basis of a quarterly conducted global business survey of2,500 businesses across 36 economies.

Meanwhile, in terms of revenue expectations, India slipped to third position from top in the previous quarter. In spite of the downturn, India is much ahead of China where only 30 per cent respondents expect an increase in revenue,

whereas in India, 85 per cent respondents have voted in favour of increasing revenue. The survey further noted that 68 per cent of respondents have voted for an upsurge in selling prices. On this parameter

too, China lags India with only 10 per cent of respondents expecting an upsurge in selling prices. The global average is 19 percent. Globally, business optimism stands at net 33 per cent, rising 1 percentage point from the previous quarter but falling 11percentage points over the year.

"Political events such as Brexit and the US presidential election understandably rattle the global economy and test the re-silience and elasticity of businesses worldwide. In general, businesses do not like uncertainty, and that is what is happening,"Grant Thornton Global CEO Ed Nusbaum said.

Source: Press Trust of India

WEEKLYECONOMIC BULLETIN >> NEWS FEATURE3


Economy to gain momentum in secondhalf of FY17: AssochamThe economy is expected to fare better in the second half of the current financial year, backed by a likely rise in sales andimproved capacity utilisation, though fresh investments and jobs creation might be a concern, according to a report fromthe Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Assocham).

More spending on infrastructure, largely by thegovernment, is seen as the most important driverfor a turnaround in the economic outlook for thesecond half, the period between October andMarch, it added.

About 66 per cent of those polled in the As-socham Bizcon Survey expected improved salesand capacity utilisation during the second half butremained uncertain on fresh investment. A majority(55.6 per cent) believe employment conditions willnot improve in the coming days. And, 38.9 per centfeel their profits might not change in the ongoingquarter.

The second best driver for an optimistic outlookis effective policy reform, followed by a stable ex-change rate for the rupee, despite global uncertainty on account of the US Federal Reserve’s next policy move and thebitterly fought polls there.

While a big chunk of Bizcon Survey participants felt the present economic situation was better than the previous sixmonths on several parameters, the optimism is more pronounced for the second half of 2016-17.

"There is a clear turnaround in business confidence, which holds the key to new investment and consumer confi-dence," said Assocham president Sunil Kanoria.

He said unlike the previous surveys, the latest round indicated a slight uptick even with regard to capacity utilisationand the order book. However, generation of employment and improvement in wages is some distance away.

The confidence was pronounced at the level of individual companies, as 89% of respondents expressed optimismabout better days ahead. About 55.6% felt there was an increase in sales volume during the September quarter and ex-pected more during the December one.

"The power to increase price on the part of producers and service providers would remain constrained till there issome more improvement in consumer demand," said Kanoria.

About 44.4% felt that in the July to September period, there was no change in wage costs. Half felt this wouldn'tchange in the near future.

The economy grew at the slowest pace in six quarters at 7.1% in April-June, mainly on subdued performance of themining, construction and farm sectors.

The finance ministry expects the economy to grow by 7-7.75% in the current financial year, against 7.6% the previousyear.

Source: Business Standard

Amazon.com Inc. will continue investing heavily in India, the chief of its local operations said, dispelling concerns of slowerspending by the US e-commerce company after itschief financial officer Brian Olsavsky said last weekthat while the India investments were starting to showresults, they had hit margins, contributing to lower-than-expected results in the third quarter.

“Not at all,” Amazon’s India chief Amit Agarwal saidin an interview on Monday when asked whether Ama-zon would slow down investments in India. Amazon,which initially said it would invest $2 billion in India,had said in June that it would invest an additional $3billion in the country.

That investment is on track, Agarwal said, addingthat the company is “excited about the momentumthat we see in India”.

“India is very early in its e-commerce trajectory. Amazon is very early in its e-commerce trajectory in India. To transformhow India buys is going to take a long time; it will take a lot of investment and... for many years. This is just the beginning.”

Amazon is betting big on its Prime service in India and expects the loyalty programme to dominate sales in the comingmonths.

“Prime continued to be the top seller in all of October, not just for wave one (of the Great Indian Festival). Prime mem-bership continues to be a top seller and it is going to be so going forward every month. My belief is that Prime membershipwill be the top seller every month based on the trends that we are seeing,” said Agarwal.

Amazon also said that it witnessed record numbers during its month-long Diwali sale event, the Great Indian Festival,with sales jumping 2.7 times from last year.

This year’s Diwali sale has proven to be the biggest showdown in the history of Indian e-commerce, with Amazon Indiaand rival Flipkart going all out to woo shoppers.

While Flipkart claimed to outsell Amazon India during the first leg of the sale season, Amazon claims it came backstrongly during the latter half of the sale season, with bigger discounts in key categories such as smartphones and largeappliances.

“October this year for us was 2.7 times of last year’s October—which is incredible because last year was 4 times the Oc-tober before,” said Agarwal, adding that this growth came even as “conversations” suggested growth in India’s e-commercebusiness was going to be flat.

Agarwal said that October could be an inflection point for e-commerce in India. “We had categories from phones to Ama-zon Fashion to appliances growing three to 11 times; even newer categories such as luxury and beauty grew 46 times; gro-cery and everyday consumables, 7.1 times; furniture, 11.8 times; gold jewellery, eight times—so a lot of these categories areshowing robust growth.”

Agarwal said that 70% of the company’s new customers in October came from tier-II and tier-III cities, adding that it wasconfident of carrying the momentum from its Diwali sale well into November and December.

WEEKLYECONOMIC BULLETIN >> OVERSEAS INVESTMENT4


Amazon will continue to invest heavily inIndia: Amit Agarwal

Mint couldn’t independently verify the numbers, but, in general, all e-commerce marketplaces (including Snapdeal, Ama-zon and Flipkart’s smaller rival) did well in October, carrying forward their momentum from their annual sales.

“When I look at the gaps between the waves, our growth rates in those gaps continued to the same extent. We’re grow-ing at 150% year-over-year. At peacetime, the growth rate is still what I’m telling you. And as we exit out of wave three (thethird sale event in October), we don’t see a slowdown,” Agarwal said.

“The broader e-commerce story is not just a Flipkart-Amazon battle. Of course, both Flipkart and Amazon are trying toget a fair share of the pie in key categories such as electronics, fashion and large appliances. And despite drags on margins,nobody is going to reduce investments in India. What you will see, however, is that they will focus on innovation. For exam-ple, during the festive season, smartphone sales shot up and a lot of the sales jumped due to things like product exchanges.Another new innovation was something like Amazon Prime. So, you’ll see a lot of that going forward,” said Sreedhar Prasad,partner-e-commerce at KPMG.

Source: Source: Livemint



British technology company that designs and manufactures vacuum cleaners, hand dryers, bladeless fans and heaters isplanning a foray into the Indian markets targeting an investment of Rs 1,200 crore over a period of five years.

"The company has applied for a business licence in sin-gle-brand retail. We should hear from the Indian govern-ment by December. We will be importing products to ourown retailers, setting up our own retail outlets with an in-vestment of of Rs 1,200 crore by mid-2017 for next fiveyears. This investment includes setting up our own retailstores, employment cost and taxes," James Dyson, founderand Chief Engineer of Dyson, told IANS.

"A lot will depend on the discussion with the govern-ment. If we do well, we can look at investing more," he saidin an interview.

The company will be allowed to open single-brand retailoutlets by the government only if its products qualify forcutting edge or state-of-the-art technology, else it will be-come mandatory for it fulfill the requirement of 30 per cent local sourcing.

Local sourcing norms were relaxed by the government for companies seeking single-brand retail only for productsdeemed as having 'state-of-the art' or 'cutting-edge' technology for a period of three years, which can be extended by an-other five years.

Dyson said he is hoping to enter the Indian market under single-brand retail without having to fulfill the 30 per cent localsourcing requirement.

"I hope we get into cutting edge technology criteria in single brand retail. However, it is too early to say if local sourcingwill be possible or not," he told IANS.

The company which is confident of achieving 2 billion pounds (16,567 crore rupees) turnover in 2016 has been clocking100 per cent growth for the last four years.

The company is also hoping the vast consumer market of India would give a substantial push to its revenues. Dyson,which has the US as its largest market followed by Japan and China, said it is looking at India soon becoming its secondlargest market.

"USA is the largest market followed by Japan and China. I would think India could be second or third largest market forus. India is a large consumer market. It could be hundreds of millions of pounds from India," Dyson said.

The company is targeting consumers "who can afford its products" which are priced at a high-end range of Rs 1-3 lakhglobally. It does not intend to have a differential pricing for the Indian markets.

Source: Indo-Asian News Service

UK's Dyson looking to invest Rs 1,200 crin India



WEEKLYECONOMIC BULLETIN >> SECTORAL NEWS7


The Indian IT industry will have to step up on innovation amid challenges like need for new products, digital disruptionand shrinking manpower requirements triggeredby software automation, Vice President HamidAnsari said while inaugurating the new headquar-ters of the National Association of Software Serv-ices Companies in Noida.

“...challenges will come in the short and inter-mediate term from the industry’s shift such ascloud computing, evolution in software as a serv-ice model, need to develop new products, digitaldisruption and shrinking manpower needs becauseof software automation,” Ansari said while inaugu-rating the new headquarters of software associa-tion Nasscom.

Asking the Indian IT industry to be “more inno-vative”, Ansari said that clients will increasingly look for “innovation partners rather than software partners”. “Even withthe growth trajectory so well charted, Nasscom President himself has admitted that below the calm waters, there is alot of churn happening, and companies will have to do a lot of things to address the challenges as well,” he said.

Lauding the role of IT sector, he said that it has been a major contributor to India’s growth story in the last 25 years.Source: Press Trust of India

IT sector needs to step up innovation:Hamid Ansari

Foreign direct investment (FDI) into the countrygrew by over 30 percent to USD 21.62 billion dur-ing the first half of 2016-17.

During April-September of 2015-16, India re-ceived FDI worth USD 16.63 billion, an official said.

"Ease of doing business and relaxation in theFDI policy are helping attract more and more FDI.The recent easing in sectors like civil aviation andconstruction will help in attracting more overseasfunds," the official added.

The sectors that receive maximum inflows in-clude computer hardware and software, tradingbusiness, automobile industry and chemicals.

India receives maximum FDI from countries, in-cluding Mauritius, Singapore, the Netherlands andJapan.

In 2015-16, FDI went up 29 percent to USD 40 billion as against USD 30.93 billion in the previous fiscal. Foreign investment is considered crucial for India, which needs around USD 1 trillion to overhaul its infrastructure

such as ports, airports and highways to put growth on a higher trajectory. Growth in foreign investments helps improve the country's balance of payments (BoP) situation and strengthen the

rupee.Source: Moneycontrol.com

FDI in India rises 30 per cent to $ 21.6 bn inApril-Sep



Railway Minister Suresh Prabhakar Prabhu said that more structural reforms are on the anvil to "keep pace with thechanging requirements".

"Though we are happy about our achievements, we are not satisfied. Our endeavour to improve travel experience foryou will continue," Prabhu said in a letter releasedby the Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corpo-ration (IRCTC).

He listed several initiatives and plans for thecoming years, including mission 'Zero Accident',making railway tracks 100 per cent human wastedischarge free through the use of bio-toilets andenhancing non-fare revenue through advertisingamong others.

"Some among many other initiatives which weare working on are redevelopment of stations intoworld-class modern terminals, a five-year invest-ment plan of Rs 8.56 lakh crore for infrastructureaugmentation, more structural reforms and cre-ation of new organisations to keep pace with thechanging requirements," Prabhu added.

"We are giving a big push on enhancing non-fare revenue through advertising and leasing out of spaces, mission 'ZeroAccident' to further improve safety on Indian railways, improved port connectivity to stimulate trade and two dedicatedfreight corridors to be commissioned by 2019," it said.

The other goals listed include connecting all capital cities of northeastern states with broad gauge line by 2020, 1000MW solar power generation in next five years, establishment of Rail University as a holistic knowledge centre for rail-ways and sale of UTS tickets through hand-held terminals and bar coded tickets.

"While we continue on our journey to transform Indian railways, we seek your cooperation. Together we can make In-dian railways, the pride of India," Prabhu said.


More structural railway reforms inpipeline: Suresh Prabhu



WEEKLYECONOMIC BULLETIN >> TRADE NEWS

India and Britain signed memoranda of understanding (MoUs) on intellectual property rights (IPR) and ease of doingbusiness following delegation-level talks led by Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Theresa May.

"Advancing business through agreements. Thetwo leaders witness exchange of MoUs in Intel-lectual Property and Ease of Doing Business," Ex-ternal Affairs Ministry spokesperson VikasSwarup tweeted.

The MoU on IPR envisages establishing amechanism for furthering cooperation betweenthe intellectual property offices of India andBritain in the field of intellectual property and re-lated information technology services, accordingto the External Affairs Ministry.

It will include exchange of best practices, expe-rience and knowledge of intellectual peopertyawareness among the public, businesses, indus-try, research and development organisations andeducational institutions, as well as on processesfor disposal of applications for patents, trademarks, industrial designs and geographical indications.

The MoU on ease of doing business intends to make expertise from different departments of the British governmentwhich have led the ease of doing business drive in the Britain available to the relevant departments and agencies of theIndian government, according to the ministry.

It includes exchange between the officials, sharing of best practices and technical assistance for effective implemen-tation of the initiatives of GOI to improve its ranking in the ease of doing business.

Important areas of cooperation include support to businesses and start-ups, tax administration, regulatory regimes,and competition economics.

Earlier on Monday, Modi and May addressed the India-UK Tech Summit here.This is May's first bilateral visit outside of Europe since she assumed the Prime Minister's office in July this year.She took over the prime ministership after David Cameron resigned following the historic referendum in June in which

Britain voted to exit from the European Union. Cameron rooted for Britain to stay in the EU. May's visit comes a little less than a year after Modi's visit to Britain in November last year.May, who arrived here late on Sunday night on a three-day official visit to India, will also visit Bengaluru.

Source: Indo Asian News Services

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India, Britain sign MoUs on IPR, ease ofdoing business

WEEKLYECONOMIC BULLETIN >> TRADE NEWS

India and Japan hope to put in a place a network connecting the Pacific to the Indian Ocean as they eye joint develop-ment of infrastructure and capacity building proj-ects in this vast region, with a special focus onAfrica, in the backdrop of China's growing ambi-tions across Asia and Africa.

The mechanism aimed at contributing to Asianstability connecting two oceans is expected to beput in place when PM Narendra Modi visits Tokyofor the annual summit with PM Shinzo Abe fromNovember 10-12. A key aim of this mechanism isalso to utilise India's political network in Africaand Japanese funds to finance a variety of proj-ects across the continent, people familiar with thedevelopment said. While top Indian leaders havemade several visits crisscrossing Africa this year,Abe was in Nairobi in August where he announceda $30 billion public and private support for infrastructure development, education and healthcare expansion in the conti-nent over the next three years beginning in 2016. This amount is in addition to $32 billion that Japan pledged to Africaover a five-year period in 2013.

India, which announced a $10 billion line of credit at last year's India-Africa mega summit in Delhi, has been involvedin several development and capacity building projects across the continent, besides making investments across sectorsfrom agriculture to telecom. It is also focusing on enhancing strategic partnership with Japan including defence ties.

In the coming months India and Japan are expected to identify projects in Africa where they can join hands, the peoplecited earlier said.

Source: The Economic Times

India, Japan plan to develop 'Pacific, Indian Ocean' corridor

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WEEKLYECONOMIC BULLETIN >> NEWS ROUND UP12


India attaches highest priority to Nepal ties:PranabIndian President Pranab Mukherjee who is on a three-day state visit to Nepal, the first presidential visit from India in 18years, said India has an abiding interest in peace, stability and development of Nepal and is committed to strengtheningits partnership with the Himalayan neighbour.

In an exclusive interview to The Kathmandu Post published on Thursday, Mukherjee said the two close neighboursshare cultural traditions, geography and civilisational linkages that defined their unique bilateral ties.

Mukherjee, who said his visit was aimed to "advanceour close and multi-faceted partnership with Nepal fur-ther", skirted any comment on the unease that hadcrept in the bilateral ties last year over adoption of thenew Nepalese constitution.

Mukherjee, who arrived in Kathmandu on Wednesdayon the invitation of his Nepalese counterpart BidhyaDevi Bhandari, to a query on the current Nepal-Indiaties, said: "As it happens, in any relationship of thisdepth and intensity, there are times when we may havediffering perceptions on certain aspects. But we domanage any such differences with sensitivity, goodwilland utmost understanding of each other's vital inter-ests.

"In my view, the current state of India-Nepal relations is excellent and both the governments are determined to workhard to meet the ever growing aspirations of our people for higher standards of living."

Asked about India's position on Nepal's new constitution, Mukherjee said: "As a close neighbour, we are interested inpeace, stability and progress of Nepal." He cited India's example, saying: "We have learnt from our own experience thatsustainable socio-economic development can only be achieved in an environment of peace, stability and a participatorydemocracy, where every section of society is an equal stakeholder in the political processes and its outcomes. Theselessons could be beneficial to Nepal as it embarks on its own path to democracy."

To another question on criticism that India went "too far in expressing its displeasure" over the new constitution, andon the "undeclared border blockade", Mukherjee said: "Given our shared border, developments within Nepal can impactthe flow of goods across it. But let us not forget that ours is a unique partnership, which is driven by extensive contactsbetween our two peoples. India has an abiding interest in peace, stability and development of Nepal. As close friends,we, therefore, welcome all efforts that lead to enduring peace and stability in Nepal. Our support and good wishes willalways be there as Nepal moves forward towards a federal democratic republic."

The Indian President said the central tenet of India's ‘neighbourhood first' policy is close contacts and shared prosper-ity. He stressed that India's engagement with Nepal "will always be guided by the long-term interests of both nations.Going forward, I firmly believe that India and Nepal need to do more to work together for our common goal of develop-ment, peace, economic prosperity and well-being of our peoples".

Mukherjee also outlined the bilateral projects being worked on, including the signing of a power trade agreement. Hesaid India has begun exporting electricity to Nepal through a new transmission line and that bilateral trade has main-tained a stable trajectory. Both sides are in the process of implementing an oil pipeline project between India and Nepal,which will be the first cross-border pipeline to be built in South Asia, he said.

WEEKLYECONOMIC BULLETIN >> NEWS ROUND UP

India and Nepal have also signed development agreements for two hydropower projects.To a question on the imbalance in trade, which is heavily tilted in India's favour, Mukherjee said both sides need to

adopt policies that promote mutual investments, create jobs and contribute to national growth and both "can certainlydo much more to facilitate business linkages between the two countries".

Mukherjee also dispelled the notion that India views Nepal primarily through the prism of its security concerns, sayingthat "While India naturally has its interests, what guides us equally is the belief that these are in consonance with thoseof Nepal. It is a multi-dimensional perspective."

He said "India is committed to moving ahead with Nepal, as per its priorities, on development and economic and con-nectivity projects, which will benefit the growth of trade, investments and movement of people."

Mukherjee also avoided a direct answer to a question on a proposed trilateral cooperation between India, China andNepal, saying India's age-old time-tested partnership with Nepal has its "own natural logic" and the open border be-tween them "is its most unique characteristic". "We remain open to any ideas, which will be mutually advantageous andenable economic development and well-being of the people of Nepal," he added.

On Saarc and the evolving sub-regional groupings, Mukherjee said that while India continues to attach importance tocooperation within the framework of Saarc, "no cooperation can take place in an environment of terror" - in reference tothe cancelled Saarc summit in Islamabad over terrorism. He said Saarc needs to move forward under the framework ofany regional or sub-regional organisation that is most suitable. "We do not want to get bogged down by the processes orformats."

Mukherjee said: "India attaches the highest priority to its relations with Nepal. The two countries have vital stakes ineach other's progress and well-being. India is committed to strengthening its partnership with Nepal and to extend allpossible support for the all-round development of our excellent bilateral relations. As two sovereign nations, we wish totake forward our relationship on the basis of mutual trust and benefit. Also, India will remain a welcoming land for thepeople of Nepal."

Source: Indo Asian News services

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WEEKLYECONOMIC BULLETIN >> NEWS ROUND UP14


Government planning platform for customerfeedback on call drops: MinisterCommunications Minister Manoj Sinha said the government is planning to set up a platform in the next one monththrough which subscribers can directly give their feedback on call drops.

"We are setting up a platform through which theconsumers will be able to directly give their feedbackto the government, especially regarding call drops,"Sinha told reporters in a press meet.

He was briefing media after holding a meeting withtelecom service providers' CEOs on the call drop issue.

Talking about the 100-day plan floated by the opera-tors where they had assured that 60,000 base trans-ceiver stations (BTS) will be set up with an investmentof Rs 12,000 crore, the minister said: "They have metthe target of setting up 60,000 BTS, rather exceededthat target."

Bharti Airtel has installed 22,000 BTS, Idea Cellular,25,382 and Vodafone, 13,870, the minister said, addingthat Reliance Jio, which was not part of the 60,000 BTS plan, has additionally set up 35,000 BTS.

Sinha said call drops should be wiped out from the country.The telecom operators also discussed the next phase of action for better services with the minister."Consumers are of paramount importance. They should not be affected," the minister added.


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