Weekly Ecological Briefing

Monday, March 8, 2021

Briefing by Austen Flannery

Weather.gov/TampaBay

Tampa Bay/RuskinWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Current Satellite ViewValid This Morning

Clear skies across nearly all of the

Southeast U.S.

Some clouds from the east coast may

work into our area later this

morning/early afternoon

Weather.gov/TampaBay

Tampa Bay/RuskinWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

• High pressure is in control

• Cool, dry, breezy weather for

next couple days

• Hazardous marine

conditions

• Slowly moderating towards

the weekend

Weather OverviewToday’s Forecast Chart

Weather.gov/TampaBay

Tampa Bay/RuskinWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

• Strong northeast flow across

Tampa Bay continues to impact

water levels, particularly at low

tide cycles, in northern portions

of Tampa Bay

• Water levels are running between

-1.0 to -1.5 Mean Lower Low

Water (MLLW – average of lowest

low tides each day) at low tide

• May expose sandbars, rocky

shoals, etc.

Low Water Levels in Tampa BayStrong NE Winds Pushing Water Out

Weather.gov/TampaBay

Tampa Bay/RuskinWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Rain Total During the Last 7 Days

Another fairly dry week for

most spots. Majority of

appreciable rainfall occurred

Saturday

Weather.gov/TampaBay

Tampa Bay/RuskinWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

30 Day Rain Total & Percent of Normal

Southern counties generally drier

Northern counties have seen additional rainfall

Weather.gov/TampaBay

Tampa Bay/RuskinWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Year-to-Date Rain Total & Percent of Normal

Despite wetter conditions over last 30 days, still a rainfall deficit for almost

all of West Central and SWFL

Weather.gov/TampaBay

Tampa Bay/RuskinWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

USGS Stream Flow

7-Day Average Stream Flow Compared to Normal 7-Day Below Normal Flow Ranking

Weather.gov/TampaBay

Tampa Bay/RuskinWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

7-Day Rain ForecastForecast Valid Through Sunday, March 14

High pressure is expected to remain in

control. No rain is expected for the next

seven days.

Weather.gov/TampaBay

Tampa Bay/RuskinWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Drought Monitorhttps://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Locations of Concern

• Abnormally dry across parts of

the Nature Coast and Central

Florida

• Drought monitor may deteriorate

some with no rainfall expected

Weather.gov/TampaBay

Tampa Bay/RuskinWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Fire DangerKeetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and Fire Danger Indices

Weather.gov/TampaBay

Tampa Bay/RuskinWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Water TemperatureTemperatures are in degrees Fahrenheit

After gradual warming, SSTs

have remained mostly steady

over the last week.

Temperatures may cool some

this week with cooler temps, but

likely to slowly warm thereafter

Weather.gov/TampaBay

Tampa Bay/RuskinWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

6-10 Day Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook

West Florida: A 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures

and a 33-40% chance of above normal precipitation for portions of the Nature Coast

West Central and Southwest Florida

Weather.gov/TampaBay

Tampa Bay/RuskinWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

3 Month Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook

A 50-60% of above normal temperatures

A 40-50% chance of below normal precipitation

West Central and Southwest Florida

Weather.gov/TampaBay

Tampa Bay/RuskinWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Weekly Weather Forecast

Weather.gov/TampaBay

Tampa Bay/RuskinWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

None None None None None None

None None None None None None

None None None None None None

Small Craft

Exercise Caution

Small Craft

Exercise Caution

Small Craft

Exercise CautionNone None None

Risk Level None Slight Moderate High Extreme

Extended Hazards OutlookOutlook Valid: Tue through Sun

Weather.gov/TampaBay

Tampa Bay/RuskinWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

SummaryPrimary Weather Concerns Through Monday

▪ Pleasant, dry weather for next seven days

▪ Breezy through mid-week

▪ Gradual warming

Questions? Comments?