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Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources. Weekly Cat Report June 8, 2018

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Page 1: Weekly Cat Report - Aon Benfieldcatastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com/reports/20180608-1-cat-alert.pdfJun 08, 2018  · have a steep vertical profile, and at its peak, Volcán de Fuego

Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

Weekly Cat Report June 8, 2018

Page 2: Weekly Cat Report - Aon Benfieldcatastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com/reports/20180608-1-cat-alert.pdfJun 08, 2018  · have a steep vertical profile, and at its peak, Volcán de Fuego

Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 2

This Week’s Natural Disaster Events

Along with this report, we continue to welcome users to access current and historical natural catastrophe data and event analysis on Impact Forecasting’s Catastrophe Insight website: www.aonbenfield.com/catastropheinsight

Event & Region Fatalities Damaged Structures or Filed Claims

Est. Economic Loss (USD)

Specific Areas Page

Volcano - North America

109+

Thousands

Millions

Guatemala

3

Severe Weather - United States - Europe - Asia - Asia

0

2+ 42+ 2+

Thousands Thousands

Hundreds 800+

100s of millions+

10s of millions Unknown

31+ Million

Plains, Midwest, Southeast Central & Western Europe

India China

5 8 9 9

Tropical Storm - Asia

4+

Hundreds

67+ million

Vietnam, China

9

Page 3: Weekly Cat Report - Aon Benfieldcatastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com/reports/20180608-1-cat-alert.pdfJun 08, 2018  · have a steep vertical profile, and at its peak, Volcán de Fuego

Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 3

Volcanic eruption leaves dozens dead in Guatemala

A large volcanic eruption occurred in Guatemala on June 3, leading to at least 109 fatalities and more

than 300 others sustaining injuries. The volcano – named Volcán de Fuego (Volcano of Fire) – has had

more than 60 known eruptions since 1524, though the current eruption is thought to be the worst since

1972. The eruption spewed ash and molten rock into several villages, notably El Rodeo, Las Lajas, and

San Miguel Los Lotes, as pyroclastic flows destroyed everything in its path given hot gas and volcanic

matter with temperatures that reportedly reached up to 700°C (1,292°F). A state of emergency was

declared in the departments of Escuintla, Chimaltenango, and Sacatepéquez. This is the deadliest

volcanic eruption in Guatemala since 1924.

Volcán de Fuego: Background & Eruption Information

Volcán de Fuego (Volcano of Fire) is a well-known volcano in Guatemala located roughly 45 kilometers

(30 miles) west of Guatemala City. The volcano has had at least 60 known eruptions since 1524,

including the last major eruption in 1974 that also produced pyroclastic flows and left major devastation to

seasonal crop harvests. For reference, a pyroclastic flow is a fast-moving current of hot gas and volcanic

matter that moves downslope from a volcano at an incredibly fast speed of up to 700 kph (430 mph). The

gases from the flows can reach temperatures of nearly 1,000°C (1,830°F).

The volcano has been active since 2002 with nearly continuous smaller eruptions during that time. Initial

signs of a more robust eruption occurred on May 17, 2018 when a series of explosions, ash plumes up to

1 kilometer (0.6 miles) in height, and mudflows of water and rocks began.

On June 3, 2018, the volcano had a major eruption. It shot ash more than 4.5 kilometers (2.8 miles) into

the sky as pyroclastic flows raced downward into nearby towns. Heavy rainfall during the eruption

additionally prompted dangerous mudflows and debris flows. These are known as “lahars”. The flows

primarily occurred on the southern side of the volcano into the nearby villages of El Rodeo, Las Lajas,

and San Miguel Los Lotes in Escuintla Department. The volcano erupted again on June 5 generating a

flume of ash 4,700 meter (15,500 feet) high. The

fresh eruptions prompted a wider scale evacuation

and forcing the rescue workers to retreat. It was

unknown if and when another eruption will occur.

Volcán de Fuego is also known as a “stratovolcano”

which is structured with many layers of hardened

lava, lahars, pumice, and volcanic ash. These also

have a steep vertical profile, and at its peak, Volcán

de Fuego is at least 12,346 feet (3,763 meters) above

sea level. Other famous stratovolcanoes include

Krakatoa, Vesuvius, St. Helens, and Pinatubo.

Guatemala sits along the known “Ring of Fire”, which is a horseshoe-shaped region that forms the

perimeter around the Pacific Ocean. This region is marked by a series of fault lines and is thought to

contain as many as three-quarters of the world's active volcanoes. It is important to note that the Volcán

de Fuego has no direct connection to Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano, and volcanologists say that the eruption

of one volcano will not trigger the eruption of another.

Volcán de Fuego (Source: Guatemala CONRED)

Page 4: Weekly Cat Report - Aon Benfieldcatastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com/reports/20180608-1-cat-alert.pdfJun 08, 2018  · have a steep vertical profile, and at its peak, Volcán de Fuego

Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 4

Event Details

Preliminary information from the National Coordination for Disaster Reduction of Guatemala (CONRED)

indicated that at least 109 people were killed and more than 300 others were injured. As many as 200

other people are presumed missing and/or buried in the volcanic debris. A state of emergency was

declared for the nearby departments of Escuintla, Chimaltenango, and Sacatepéquez as more than 1.71

million people were directly affected.

Nearly 3,300 people were evacuated from the

hardest-hit villages of El Rodeo, Las Lajas, and

San Miguel Los Lotes as pyroclastic flows

reaching some of these areas reached nearly

700°C (1,290°F). The town of San Miguel Los

Lotes was reportedly completely covered by ash.

The eruption severely limited access to many

areas given road closures and heavy ash. The

country’s main airport, La Aurora International

Airport in Guatemala City, was temporarily closed

due to ashfall.

There were concerns that Volcán de Fuego may continue to erupt in the coming days and weeks, which

might require additional evacuations. Further adding to local search and rescue team challenges was the

possibility of heavy rainfall. Precipitation would again increase the likelihood of fast-moving lahars

Additional impacts were reported to Guatemala’s coffee crop. About 2,788 hectares (6,890 acres) of

coffee plantation was damaged. According to the National Coffee Association, this is expected to amount

to a loss of about 0.91% of Guatemala’s total coffee production. Coffee is one of the main exports of the

country and amounts worth nearly USD750 million were shipped outside the country in 2017.

This is the deadliest volcano event in Guatemala since 1929, when the Santa Maria volcano erupted and

minimally left hundreds of people dead.

Financial Loss

Given the ongoing nature of the event, local officials have yet to conduct a full assessment of the region.

Economic damage is likely to run well into the millions of dollars (USD), including interruption losses.

However, the impact to the insurance industry was expected to be negligible.

Lava flow on June 6 (Source: Guatemala CONRED)

Page 5: Weekly Cat Report - Aon Benfieldcatastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com/reports/20180608-1-cat-alert.pdfJun 08, 2018  · have a steep vertical profile, and at its peak, Volcán de Fuego

Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 5

Major hail event spawns extensive damage in Texas

A significant hail event led to extensive damage in the greater Dallas – Fort Worth metropolitan region in

Texas during the early morning of June 6. Hail larger than the size of baseballs swept through Denton,

Collin, Dallas, and Tarrant counties during the early morning hours and left a major swath of shattered

windows, dented roofs, and damaged siding of homes, businesses and vehicles. Total economic and

insured losses were expected to each minimally tally into the hundreds of millions (USD), though the final

toll could be even higher. Also this week, additional convective storm damage affected the Midwest and

Plains on June 1-2, New Mexico on June 3, and an area from the Rockies to the Midwest on June 5-7.

Meteorological Recap

June 3-6

The period from June 3-6 was marked by the presence of a stationary frontal boundary that stretched

from New Mexico into Texas. The combination of a moist and unstable atmosphere, surface heating, and

the arrival of mid-level disturbances helped create an ideal set-up for powerful thunderstorms.

On June 3, the most intense storms occurred in New Mexico and west Texas. Hail the size of tennis balls

were confirmed in Midland and Martin counties in Texas, and Eddy County, New Mexico, while straight-

line winds gusted to upwards of 80 mph (130 kph). Additional thunderstorms along an also attached cold

front caused damage from Pennsylvania to Florida. This included a brief EF0 tornado in Washington

County, Pennsylvania and up to egg-sized hail near St. Augustine Beach, Florida.

Further thunderstorms led to minor

damage in parts of Oklahoma and

Texas on June 4, before more

conducive conditions returned on June 5

into June 6. The development of a

strong dry line in Texas, in addition to

the presence of the stationary front,

allowed several supercell thunderstorms

to form. The most intense was a storm

that explosively developed and spawned

hail larger than baseballs across the

Dallas – Fort Worth metropolitan region.

The most extensive damage occurred in

Denton, Tarrant, Dallas, and Collin

counties, which has a long history of

substantial hail events.

Other Events

Additional severe weather during the past seven days was noted from June 1-2 and June 5-7. The June

1-2 outbreak of severe weather occurred in the Rockies, Plains, Midwest, and Southeast and was a

continuation of a multi-day even that initially began during the last week of May. Large hail and damaging

straight line winds were the primary cause of damage, though five tornadoes were confirmed. The most

significant tornado was an EF3 that touched down in Campbell County, Wyoming.

A separate storm system entered the Northern Rockies and crossed into the Plains and Midwest from

June 5-7. Nearly all damage reports were due to hail and straight-line wind.

Hail swath image from June 6 around Dallas – Fort Worth (Source: NOAA)

Page 6: Weekly Cat Report - Aon Benfieldcatastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com/reports/20180608-1-cat-alert.pdfJun 08, 2018  · have a steep vertical profile, and at its peak, Volcán de Fuego

Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 6

Event Details

The most extensive damage, by far, during the past week

occurred in the state of Texas. A powerful supercell thunderstorm

developed and spawned a major hail swath that occurred in the

Dallas – Fort Worth metropolitan region during the pre-dawn

hours on June 6. The worst damage was noted in parts of

Denton, Tarrant, Dallas, and Collin counties. This included the

hardest-hit communities including Arlington, Carrollton, Coppell,

Irving, Frisco, Euless, Prosper, Aubrey, The Colony, Valley

Ranch, Las Colinas, Hebron, and Grand Prairie. Hail larger than

the size of baseballs – including a maximum report of 3.00-inch

(7.62-centimeter) hailstones – in Dallas County’s Carrollton.

Pictures and video from social media and television confirmed a

significant swath of damage to homes, businesses, vehicles,

agriculture, and infrastructure. An initial report from the Insurance

Council of Texas (ICT) suggested a minimum of 20,000 homes

and 25,000 vehicles being directly in the storm’s path.

Further damage from earlier storms on June 3 led to extensive damage across West Texas and New

Mexico. Hail minimally measured at the size of tennis balls were confirmed in Midland and Martin counties

in Texas, and Eddy County, New Mexico that shattered windows and dented roofs. Straight-line winds

gusted to upwards of 80 mph (130 kph) and downed trees and power lines. The cluster of storms also

caused substantial damage to the nose of a commercial airplane which was flying from San Antonio, TX

to Phoenix, AZ. Hail larger than baseballs pelted the nose of the aircraft and shattered the front

windshield, which forced an emergency landing in El Paso, TX.

Another round of widespread thunderstorm damage occurred across the

Northern Plains and Midwest from June 5-7 as a separate storm system

developed. Hail larger than eggs fell from the sky and severely

damaged crops, vehicles, and structures in parts of North and South

Dakota during the first day of the event. Intense thunderstorms, which

quickly tracked eastward, also spawned wind gusts in excess of 100

mph (160 kph) in Walworth County, South Dakota. Other locales in the

Dakotas also cited straight-line wind gusts exceeding 80 mph (130 kph).

The system would later spawn nearly softball-sized hail in Logan

County, Colorado and other reports of large hail and high winds across

the Plains and the Midwest. On June 7, winds gusting to nearly 85 mph

(135 kph) were noted in the Texas panhandle, and baseball-sized hail

occurred in Montana.

Financial Loss

An insured loss estimate from the ICT reported that the hail event around Dallas – Fort Worth during the

early morning hours of June 6 was expected to minimally reach USD425 million. However, this number

should be considered very preliminary and subject to change. When including the total period from June

3-6, which also includes further hail and wind damage throughout Texas and New Mexico, the total

insured loss will likely be a notable uptick from the June 6 ICT initial estimate. Overall economic losses

will be even higher.

Source: Star-Telegram

Source: Vice News via Facebook

Page 7: Weekly Cat Report - Aon Benfieldcatastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com/reports/20180608-1-cat-alert.pdfJun 08, 2018  · have a steep vertical profile, and at its peak, Volcán de Fuego

Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 7

Miscellaneous

As seen in the graphic below, Texas is no stranger to significant hail events. In the current Doppler era

(1990-2017), Texas is the far leader in the number of significant hail reports – defined by the Storm

Prediction Center as at least 2.00 inches (5.08 centimeters) in diameter – with 3,302 such instances. A

big reason for the disparity is due to the state’s size, but it is also located in a prime location for significant

convective storms where there are extremely conducive conditions for hail-inducing supercell events. This

“hail belt” includes Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota.

When breaking down the Local Storm Reports (LSR) from the SPC database by county during the same

Doppler era timeframe, it is found that the Dallas – Fort Worth metro region has five counties located in

the U.S. Top 50. These include Tarrant (#1), Dallas (#5), Denton (#18), Collin (#34), and Parker (#42).

Given continued explosive population and exposure growth in this part of Texas, this has allowed more

opportunity for resultant losses to increase.

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Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 8

Update: Severe weather continues to impact Europe

A prolonged stretch of severe weather phenomena continued to pummel several European countries in

the past week due to unstable atmospheric conditions that were present. The most prominent feature of

these storms was intense, but isolated rainfall that caused numerous instances of pluvial flooding across

Germany, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Czech Republic and elsewhere. Damage from hail was less

significant.

Event Details

Notable flooding occurred in Luxembourg in the night between

May 31 and June 1, causing mudslides and significant

damage to homes and commercial property. The local

government announced a release of EUR30 million (USD35

million) to help the victims and affected businesses. On these

two days, small-scale flooding was also widespread across

Germany, Czech Republic or Belgium.

Strong storms hit parts of France between June 3-5. Several

departments of Brittany in northwestern France were hit by

storms that caused severe flooding on June 3-4. According to

local media reports, emergency crews received more than 450

calls for help. In Morlaix, at least a month’s worth of rain fell in

under an hour’s time, which caused the Jarlot River to reach a

height of 2.0 meters (6.6 feet). This was the highest recorded

level in recent memory. Parts of northern France were also hit

by storms on June 4-5, including Normandy, as parts of Eure

department recorded up to 70 millimeters (2.76 inches) of rain.

The flooding resulted in two deaths and as many as 300 calls

for intervention. At least 20 departments from North-east to

South-west France have been placed on Orange Alert. The

total extent of damage is yet to be assessed.

Heavy rainfall caused notable urban flooding in Bratislava, the

capital of Slovakia, and in broader western region of the country on June 6. Storms of June 7 were

particularly severe in German states of Nordrhein-Westfalen and Hessen and also in Brabant region in

southern Netherlands. Numerous flooding-related claims are expected across Essen, Düsseldorf,

Soligen, Plettenberg, Bonn and other places. In Hessen, region around Frankfurt was particularly affected

by heavy downpours, which caused multiple streets to be flooded.

Financial Loss

Majority of these events were of pluvial nature, i.e. caused by isolated torrential rains, which overwhelmed

local drainage systems and the ability of the soil to absorb such quantity of water in a short period of time.

Financial impact of most of these events was insignificant on the European level, however the

widespread nature of these phenomena caused considerable overall financial toll. Insurers across Europe

already indicated losses in tens of millions of EUR, attributed to the storms of the past two weeks. In

Switzerland alone, the storms of May 30 caused an estimated insured loss of CHF45 million (USD46

million). Aggregated impact in other countries is yet to be determined.

24-hour rainfall total on May 31. (Source: DWD)

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Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 9

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief

Severe Weather (India)

A series of thunderstorms hit several places in India between June 1-6. In North India’s Uttar Pradesh, 17

people were killed on June 1-2 as winds of over 100 kph (65 mph) uprooted trees, toppled electricity

poles and collapsed several houses. The southern state of Kerala also experienced thunderstorms on

June 3. The storm destroyed or damaged 31 houses and caused 3 fatalities. On the evening of June 4,

thunderstorms and heavy rain affected the western state of Maharashtra killing 5 people in Nashik and

causing widespread damage in Mumbai and Thane. In the eastern state of Mizoram, a landslide triggered

by heavy rainfall destroyed one house and left 10 people dead. Between June 5-6, 7 people died in

Rajasthan due to strong winds and lightning from thunderstorms. The extent of damage is not yet known.

Severe Weather (Australia)

A slow moving cold front brought severe winds and rain to Western Australia (WA) between June 4-5.

More than 40,000 properties were left without power in southern WA as the storm hit the coast and

prompted at least 65 calls into the State Emergency Service (SES) for help. The strong winds damaged

at least two yachts in Rockingham, while also washing away four more in Koombana Bay and causing a

houseboat at Dawesville to sink. Wind gusts of up to 107 kph (66 mph) were recorded at Rottnest and

Cape Naturaliste. Slow-moving rain-bands also brought heavy rain over much of the region. Denham

received up to 98 millimeters (3.86 inches) in 24 hours on June 5, making it the heaviest rainfall for the

city in at least 100 years.

Tropical Storm Ewiniar (Vietnam, China) On June 2, a tropical depression (05W) formed about 587 km (365 miles) from Vietnam and began tracking northwest. By June 6, 05W was upgraded to a tropical storm by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and subsequently names Ewiniar. After about 6 hours as a tropical storm, it was downgraded to a tropical depression by JTWC. On June 7, the Hong Kong Observatory raised a Strong Winds Signal 3 as Ewiniar tracked closer to the city. Toward the evening of the same day, roughly 150 miles west-southwest of Hong Kong, Ewiniar regained tropical-storm strength with sustained wind speeds of 65 kph (40 mph) and gusts of 84 kph (52 mph). Vietnam experienced by heavy rainfall from June 2. At least one death occurred due to landslides triggered by heavy rain. The heavy rainfall damaged or destroyed several houses and affected croplands. On June 6, Ewiniar brushed by Xuwen in Guangdong Province and Hainan in China. The rain bands of Ewiniar brought between 100 to 200 millimeters (3.93 to 7.87 inches) of rain to the north-central Hainan Island, southern Guangdong, southeastern Jiangxi, western and northern Fujian, and southern Zhejiang Province. The rain affected more than 43,500 hectares (107,490 acres) of crops. At least 3 people died and 5 more were reported missing. A preliminary economic loss of CNY430 million (USD67 million) was provided by the Chinese government, though this total was expected to rise. Severe Weather (China) Convective weather over the province of Gansu in Chin gave rise to hail-storms and heavy rainfall between June 6-7. Hail damaged at least 3,300 hectares (8,150 acres) of crops including corn, soybean and potato. The inclement weather claimed two lives and destroyed or damaged a minimum of 800 houses. According to reports from the local authorities, direct economic losses were estimated to be CNY200 million (USD31 million).

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Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 10

Global Temperature Anomaly Forecast

This product interprets an ensemble of 40 different numerical model forecasts to produce guidance for a probabilistic prediction of the mean surface air temperatures (2 meters above the surface). Probabilities indicate the percent of ensemble members that predict temperatures significantly above normal, near normal, or significantly below normal. Source: Climate Prediction Center

Page 11: Weekly Cat Report - Aon Benfieldcatastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com/reports/20180608-1-cat-alert.pdfJun 08, 2018  · have a steep vertical profile, and at its peak, Volcán de Fuego

Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 11

Global Precipitation Anomaly Forecast

This product interprets an ensemble of 40 different numerical model forecasts to produce guidance for a probabilistic prediction of accumulated precipitation. Probabilities are derived from the fraction of ensemble precipitation forecasts exceeding various thresholds. Source: Climate Prediction Center

Page 12: Weekly Cat Report - Aon Benfieldcatastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com/reports/20180608-1-cat-alert.pdfJun 08, 2018  · have a steep vertical profile, and at its peak, Volcán de Fuego

Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 12

Weekly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies (°C)

The SST anomalies are produced by subtracting the long-term mean SST (for that location in that time of year) from the current

value. This product with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree (50 kilometers) is based on NOAA/NESDIS' operational daily global 5 km

Geo-polar Blended Night-only SST Analysis. The analysis uses satellite data produced by AVHRR radiometer.

Select Current Global SSTs and Anomalies

Location of Buoy Temp (°C) Departure from Last Year (°C)

Eastern Pacific Ocean (1,020 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) 28.3 +0.6

Niño3.4 region (2°N latitude, 155°W longitude) 27.6 +0.6

Western Pacific Ocean (700 miles NNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands) 30.5 +0.8

Sources: ESRL, NOAA, NESDIS, National Data Buoy Center

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Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 13

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present, and are expected to continue through the September-

November 2018 timeframe. There is a nearly 50% chance of El Niño by the North American winter of

2018/19.

El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures (+0.5°C) that periodically develop across the east-

central equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle.

La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures (-0.5°C) across the east-central equatorial Pacific.

It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle.

El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While

their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years.

Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.

ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El

Niño nor La Niña conditions are present. These periods

often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La

Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean

temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric

winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the

long-term average.

El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial

Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3-

month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST)

anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above the

threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C). This standard of measure is

known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

MJJ2018

JJA2018

JAS2018

ASO2018

SON2018

OND2018

NDJ2018

DJF2018

JFM2019

Pro

ba

bil

ity (

%)

Time period

Mid May IRI/CPC Model-BasedProbabilistic ENSO Forecast

El Niño

Neutral

La Niña

El Niño

Neutral

La Niña

Climatological

Source: NOAA

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Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 14

Global Tropics Outlook

Source: Climate Prediction Center

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Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 15

Current Tropical Systems

Location and Intensity Information

* TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone

** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest

Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Name* Location Winds Center of Circulation Motion**

CY Aletta 15.8°N, 110.7°W 120 mph 765 kilometers (475 miles) WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico WNW at 6 mph

TS Maliksi 19.0°N, 127.2°E 46 mph 820 kilometers (510 miles) NE of Manila, Philippines N at 13.8 mph

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Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 16

Global Earthquake Activity (≥M4.0): June 1 – 7

Significant EQ Location and Magnitude (≥M6.0) Information

Source: United States Geological Survey

Date Location Magnitude Depth Epicenter

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Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 17

U.S. Weather Threat Outlook

Potential Threats

▪ The biggest threat will be continued excessive heat and well above normal temperatures across the

western two-thirds of the country through the middle of next week. Daytime highs are expected to be

more than 10 degrees higher than normal, with maximum temperatures expected to approach 110°F

in the Desert Southwest.

▪ Moisture interacting with an advancing frontal boundary will lead to heavy rainfall in parts of the

Midwest and Mid-Atlantic over the weekend into next week.

▪ Recent heavy rains have led to elevated river levels across portions of the Northern Rockies, Upper

Plains, and the Mid-Atlantic.

▪ Severe drought conditions persist for much of the Desert Southwest, California, and parts of the

Plains. No significant relief is expected in the next seven days.

Source: Climate Prediction Center

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Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 18

Current U.S. River Flood Stage Status

Top 5 Rivers Currently Nearing or Exceeding Flood Stage

Source: United States Geological Survey

Location Flood Stage (ft) Current Stage (ft) % of Full Capacity

Savannah River near Clyo, Georgia 11.00 14.44 131%

Santee River near Jamestown, South Carolina 10.00 12.73 127%

Missouri River near Williston, North Dakota 22.00 25.05 114%

Savannah River near Millhaven, Georgia 15.00 16.08 107%

Big Lost River near Mackay, Idaho 4.30 4.60 107%

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Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 19

Source Information

Volcanic eruption leaves dozens dead in Guatemala: Guatemala volcano toll rises to 99 as more eruptions feared, SBS News Search Has Been Suspended After Guatemala Volcano Eruption, 109 Deaths Confirmed, Time Guatemala volcano eruption map: Will the volcano erupt again? Where is the danger zone?, Express Coffee Exports by Country, World’s Top Exports Coordinadora Nacional Para La Reducción De Desastres

Major hail event spawns extensive damage in Texas: Overnight hailstorm in DFW ‘could be costly’, Star-Telegram Severe storms and baseball-sized hail hit parts of North Texas, CBS DFW A hailstorm completely obliterated this American Airlines plane, Vice News U.S. Storm Prediction Center U.S. National Weather Service

Update: Severe weather continues to impact Europe Severe thunderstorms are causing damage - new storms are approaching. RP Online Bad weather costs insurers over 25 million, Aargauer Zeitung Deutscher Wetterdienst

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief: 10 killed, one injured in landslide in Mizoram, New Indian Express Falling trees, collapsing houses due to dust storm kill 17 in Uttar Pradesh, India Today Thunderstorm, heavy rain lash Mumbai, Thane, Indian Express Seven dead in rain-related incidents in Raj, Indian Express Brittany and eastern France braced as yet more violent storms roll in, The Local Perth weather: wild wind and heavy rainfall to pound WA as cold front arrives, Perth Now Thousands left without power as record rains smash WA, 9 News Okinawa keeps eye on Tropical Storm Ewiniar, Stripes Okinawa National Emergency Response Centre, Government of India Météo-France Floodlist Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government China National Commission for Disaster Reduction

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Weekly Cat Report 20

Contact Information

Steve Bowen

Director (Meteorologist)

Aon Benfield Analytics

Impact Forecasting

+1.312.381.5883

[email protected]

Michal Lörinc

Catastrophe Analyst

Aon Benfield Analytics

Impact Forecasting

+420.234.618.222

[email protected]

Anwesha Bhattacharya

Senior Analyst

Aon Benfield Analytics

Impact Forecasting

+ 91.80.6621.8575

[email protected]

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Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

Weekly Cat Report 21

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visit aonbenfield.com.

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at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used

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Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting®

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