Weekly Cat Report May 15, 2020

Weekly Cat Report 2

This Week’s Natural Disaster Events

Event Impacted Areas Fatalities Damaged Structures and/or Filed Claims

PreliminaryEconomic Loss (USD)*

Page

Severe Weather United States 0 Thousands 100+ million 3

Typhoon Vongfong Philippines N/A Thousands Millions 6

Severe Weather Western & Central Europe 0 Hundreds 10s of millions 8

Flooding Indonesia 7+ 916+ Thousands 10

Severe Weather Vietnam 1 8,720+ 3.9+ million 10

Severe Weather Thailand 2 10,107+ Millions 10

Severe Weather India 29+ Unknown Millions 10

Landslide Ethiopia 12+ Unknown Negligible 10

Flooding Kenya 43+ 10,000+ Unknown 11

Wildfire United States 0 Unknown Millions 11

*Please note that these estimates are preliminary and subject to change. In some instances, initial estimates may be significantly adjusted as losses develop over time. This data is provided as an initial view of the potential financial impact from a recently completed or ongoing event based on early available assessments.

Along with this report, we continue to welcome users to access current and historical natural catastrophe data and event analysis on Impact Forecasting’s Catastrophe Insight website: http://catastropheinsight.aon.com

Weekly Cat Report 3

Multiple SCS events bring more U.S. hail & wind damage Two more rounds of severe weather brought additional damaging impacts across the central U.S. in the past week: May 7-8 and May 13-14. Most damage was due to large hail and straight-line winds that caused widespread damage to property and vehicles in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Louisiana. Total combined economic losses from each event were expected to exceed USD100 million (USD). Most of the wind and hail-related damage will be covered by insurance.

May 7-8

Meteorological Recap

Two rounds of severe weather brought large and significant hail along with damaging winds in the late evening and overnight hours to portions of northcentral Texas, including the Fort Worth metro region, as well as southern Oklahoma, adjacent to and north of the Red River Valley, southwest Arkansas, northwest Louisiana, and northeast Texas (ArkLaTex).

A potent supercell storm brought an almost continuous swath of severe and at times significant hail along a corridor from north of Childress County, Texas, extending southeast toward the Fort Worth metro area. The storm was initiated ahead of an approaching dry line stretching southward from a developing surface low over the Texas panhandle. In this region, strong southerly winds at the surface allowed for ample moisture advection and increasing dewpoints, while a westerly mid-level flow and steep lapse rates (changes in temperature with height) were ideal for the formation of isolated supercells. Overtime, the storm weakened in an increasingly stable environment as it approached the western Fort Worth metro area, however severe hail reports were still present in Tarrant County (Texas).

Weekly Cat Report 4

Further west, a region of showers and storms initiated by an upper level shortwave trough, intensified ahead of an approaching cold front in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. This activity developed into a mesoscale convective complex which progressed southeastward overnight along a warm frontal boundary. This system resulted in multiple reports of large hail and damaging winds as it evolved across southern Oklahoma and into the ArkLaTex region in the early morning hours. Multiple structures were impacted from high winds and downed trees.

Event Details

On May 7, there were 111 reports of severe weather, of which 52 were for hail, and 59 for wind. Of the hail reports, 18 were for significant hail (hail greater than or equal to 2.0 inches). Significant hail approaching baseball size and larger, 3.00 inches (7.6 cm), were reported in Childress, Wilbarger, and Baylor Counties (Texas), associated with the supercell storm. Further south near the Fort Worth metro area, in Tarrant County (Texas), hailstones approaching 1.25 inches (3.18 cm) were reported. Overall, the supercell storm produced an almost continuous swath of severe hail spanning from Childress County southeast into Tarrant County (Texas). In addition to hail, severe and damaging wind reports were common with this event. A recoded severe wind gust of 90 mph (145 kph) in Roberts County (Texas) was responsible for reports of impacted structures, downed trees, and snapped fence posts. Overnight and into the morning hours on May 8, severe wind gusts in the ArkLaTex region resulted in several reports of downed trees causing damage to structures and powerlines. Several homes were impacted in the town of Springhill in Webster Parish (Louisiana).

May 13-14

Meteorological Recap

Scattered severe thunderstorms and storm clusters occurred across the Southern Plains on the evening of May 13 resulting in localized severe hail and high winds. Earlier in the day, The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlighted a region of Enhanced Risk for severe weather (level 3 out of 5) for portions of northwest Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. A surrounding Slight Risk for severe weather (level 2 out of 5) extended north into southern Kansas and south toward the Texas border; in addition to an east to west spanning axis across the Nebraska/Kansas state line into southwestern Iowa. A severe threat was also present for portions of northern Coahuila and Nuevo Leon in Mexico. The narrow environment for severe weather in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma resulted from a modest shortwave trough progressing in southwesterly flow toward the Southern Plains, in

association with an eastward advancing surface low pressure system originally over eastern Colorado. Storms initiated near and ahead of an approaching dryline (boundary that separates a moist air mass from a dry air mass) in a region with increasing instability resulting from diurnal heating and moisture advection from strong southerly winds. Discrete cells and storm clusters that were initially severe, quickly began to weaken as they progressed into a less favorable environment overnight.

The pattern would later shift into the Midwest on May 14 as multiple rounds of thunderstorms and torrential rains were fed by a vigorous low-level jet stream that allowed a plume of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to surge northward. Most storms, however, were not severe. As of this writing, the SPC had listed an Enhanced Risk (3 of 5) on May 15 for the Northeast. Damaging winds were the greatest risk.

May 13 Surface Map (Source: NOAA)

Weekly Cat Report 5

Event Details

Preliminary data shows 31 reports of severe weather from this event, of which 21 were for hail. Hailstones approaching 2.50 inches (6.4 centimeters), tennis ball size, were reported in Ector County (Texas), and hail approaching 2.00 inches (5.1 centimeters) were reported in Beckhan County (Oklahoma). Maximum straight-line wind gusts of 70 mph (112 kph) were observed in Hockley and Garza Counties (Texas), and Greer County (Oklahoma).

Financial Loss Total combined economic losses from each event were expected to reach into the hundreds of millions (USD). Most of the wind and hail-related damage will be covered by insurance. The additional losses will add to what has already been an active and costly year for severe convective storms in the United States. Through the latter half of April, the country had already recorded seven individual billion-dollar SCS events. Three of those topped USD1 billion for insurance claims.

Weekly Cat Report 6

Vongfong strikes the Philippines; first 2020 WPAC landfall Typhoon Vongfong became the first named storm of the 2020 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season and made separate landfalls in the Philippines on May 14-15. The system first came ashore in the Visayas island group as a Category 3 storm with 185 kph (115 mph) winds before slowly weakening and later tracking towards Luzon. As of this writing, the Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) cited widespread wind, flood damage, and coastal inundation. Total economic losses to infrastructure and agriculture alone were likely to reach well into the millions (USD).

Meteorological Recap The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) began watching an organized convection in early May in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. On May 13 at 00:00 UTC, the agency noted that the system had become better organized and was deemed Typhoon Vongfong as it slowly meandered towards the west. The system first attained hurricane-equivalent intensity on May 13 at 12:00 UTC – 150 kph (90 mph); Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – as it began to steadily strengthen while tracking over the warm waters of the Northwest Pacific. The JTWC began highlighting the possibility of further intensification prior to making landfall on province of Northern Samar in the eastern Philippines.

On May 13, rapid intensification occurred as Typhoon Vongfong neared the eastern Philippines. During one 24-hour stretch ending on May 13 18:00 UTC, the system strengthened by 95 kph (60 mph) alone to an initial peak intensity of 185 kph (115 mph). The system fluctuated in intensity as it neared the Philippines archipelago with the eye feature contracting and undergoing replacement cycles. It officially made landfall on May 14 at San Policarpo, Eastern Samar, Philippines at 04:15 UTC (12:15 PM local time) at its peak intensity. After coming ashore, the system continued to slowly weaken as it crossed Visayas and was later expected to move into Luzon. Further weakening was likely before re-emerging into the South China Sea on May 16.

Weekly Cat Report 7

Event Details Damage details remained scarce as of this writing on May 14 as Vongfong was continuing to track across Visayas and towards Luzon. Government officials warned that more than 200,000 people lived along coastal areas in Eastern Samar province; where Vongfong initially made landfall. Initial reports noted that torrential rains, multiple feet of storm surge, and winds gusting to 160 kph (100 mph) were noted. Given poor construction of many homes and businesses, it was expected that widespread damage to thousands of structures was likely.

The first typhoon landfall of the year in the Philippines prompted additional challenges as the country - like much of the world - continues to deal with the COVID-19 virus. Despite evacuation orders into shelters, local officials tried to maintain social distancing to limit possible risk and spread of the virus.

Vongfong became the first official storm of the 2020 Northwest Pacific Basin Typhoon Season. Another tropical wave was looming behind Vongfong, though the forecast models remained in disagreement regarding future development. It is also worth noting that a possible tropical cyclone was forecast in the Bay of Bengal. Potential landfall in India or Bangladesh was suggested by the middle of next week.

Financial Loss As the event is still ongoing, it remains too preliminary to provide a specific economic loss estimate at this time. However, the scope of wind and flood-related impacts were likely to result in economic costs reaching into the millions (USD) to infrastructure and agriculture alone.

Weekly Cat Report 8

Parts of Europe affected by severe weather The period from May 9-11 was characterized by a sharp temperature drop across parts of Europe, and regionally significant outbreaks of severe weather phenomena, which caused localized damage. Notable hail, wind and flood-related effects occurred in Spain, France, Germany, the Czech Republic and Poland. Aggregated economic losses were expected to be in the tens of millions EUR.

Meteorological Recap The period from May 11 to 13 is known in many central European countries as a meteorological singularity called ‘Ice Saints’, as it was observed in the past, that the region frequently experienced notable cold drops in mid-May. The beginning of this week was indeed characterized by a sharp temperature drop because of a large-scale synoptic situation with a ridge of high pressure situated over the North Atlantic and a long-wave trough progressing across the continent. On the convergence zone and in association with advancing low-pressure systems, locally severe weather resulted in weather-related losses. Notable effects were caused by large hail, strong winds and localized heavy rain.

Event Details Large hail and hail accumulations affected parts of Spain on May 9; minor impacts were noted in the agricultural sector. Additional effects were noted due to heavy rain that caused erosion of soils. Agroseguro expected claims from farmers across the country, as the total extent of agricultural land affected by hail reached approximately 38,000 hectares (94,000 acres). Among the worst affected regions were Castilla y Léon with 32 percent and Aragon with about 14 percent of the total acreage. Most affected crops included cereals, wine grapes, citruses and almonds. La Unió, a major agricultural association in the Valencian Community, reported damage to at least 6,000 hectares (15,000 acres) with total losses estimated at EUR9.0 million (USD10 million).

Parts of France experienced intense rainfall on May 9-11, leading to locally increased water levels and isolated flooding. Landes and Gironde departments in the southwest were strongly affected, as there were at least 700 interventions conducted by fire brigades due to storm-related incidents and 58 people were evacuated to safety. Dozens of roads were temporarily flooded. Departments of Aude and Tarn in the south were affected as well; there were more than 150 evacuations in rural parts of the region. Emergency services responded to at least 170 incidents.

Effects were also felt on the French Riviera, with a new 24-hour rainfall record for the month of May recorded in Cannes with 94 millimeters (3.7 inches), beating the former record from May 1949. Passage of the cold front with a pronounced temperature drop on May 11 was also accompanied by strong winds, which, however, caused only minor property damage.

Weekly Cat Report 9

Parts of Germany, the Czech Republic and Poland were affected by strong winds. Among the worst affected German states was Hessen, in particular the districts of Limburg-Weilburg, Gießen, Hochtaunuskreis and Aschaffenburg with multiple treefalls and wind-related claims.

The pronounced cold front affected parts of the Czech Republic, bringing locally strong thunderstorms with gusts in the lowlands reaching up to 77 kph (48 mph). Highest rainfall accumulations were recorded in a belt stretching from Western to Central and Eastern Bohemia and peaked with 49 millimeters (1.9 inches) in Dvoračky. Additionally, higher-altitude regions experienced sub-zero temperatures and snowfall. Some places experienced a 20°C drop in temperatures during the passage of the front. Liberec, Hradec Králové, and Olomouc regions among other parts of the country were affected by strong winds and locally heavy rain. Fire brigades responded to nearly 650 wind and flood related incidents across the country. There were at least 46,000 power outages.

Severe storms later continued into Poland. Fire brigades intervened more than 420 times in the country, mostly due to strong winds. Łódź, Podlaskie, Masovian and Lower Silesian regions were among the most affected, with multiple instances of roofs damaged or destroyed. There were more than 10,500 power outages.

Source: Czech Fire Brigade

Weekly Cat Report 10

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Flooding (Indonesia) Torrential flooding rains caused flash floods and landslides in the West Sulawesi Province in Indonesia on May 5-8. According to local media reports, at least seven people were killed, and more than 916 houses in Pasangkayu District were inundated during this event.

Severe Weather (Vietnam) Strong thunderstorms, whirlwinds, and lightning affected 14 provinces of Vietnam (Ha Giang, Lao Cai, Cao Bang, Son La, Yen Bai, Bac Kan and Tuyen Quang, Hoa Binh, Thai Nguyen, Phu Tho, Bac Giang, Nghe An, Hue and Gia Lai) on May 7-10. According to the report from the Provincial Steering Committee of Information, Fire and Rescue, one person was killed during the event and more than 20 were injured. At least 60 homes were destroyed while 8,660 homes were damaged during the event. The events affected agricultural land, livestock and resulted in uprooted trees and damaged electricity poles. Total economic damage was estimated at minimally VND91.5 billion (USD3.9 million).

Severe Weather (Thailand) An extended period of severe convective storms coupled with strong winds and heavy rain affected parts of Thailand from April 29 – May 9, leading to casualties and damage across the country. According to ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance (AHA), at least 2 people have died, no fewer than 10,107 buildings sustained damage, including 10,092 houses, 4 educational facilities, 1 hospital, and 10 temples. Total combined economic losses were expected to be in low-digit millions (USD).

Severe Weather (India) Heavy rains accompanied by strong winds, lightning, and hail lashed the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh on May 10, leading to casualties and widespread damage. Multiple reports of damage came from 38 districts of central and northern Uttar Pradesh, mainly due to hail and heavy wind. The weather pattern allowed powerful thunderstorms that spawned up to golf ball sized hail in parts of Uttar Pradesh. According to the local media reports, at least 29 people died and no fewer than 400,000 hectares of farmland sustained severe damage. The storms have resulted in damaging 25 percent of the mango fruits in the famous Malihabad’s mango belt, located in the state capital Lucknow. Total economic losses were likely in the low-digit millions (USD).

Landslide (Ethiopia) A landslide, triggered likely by abundant rainfall in recent weeks, killed 12 people in Ale special woreda (district) in the SNNPR region in Ethiopia on May 9. The event only damaged several homes in a rural part of the region; economic losses are thus not expected to be significant. The event can be considered a part of the seasonal flooding, which has been affecting the country for several weeks and led to a displacement of more than 100,000 people.

Weekly Cat Report 11

Flooding (Kenya) Widespread flooding in Kenya continued during the past week. Since May 10, notable flooding occurred in central Kenya north of Nairobi in counties of Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Laikipia, Nyeri and Kiambu and displaced about 2,000 families. Mandera Town region in the northeast was hit by flooding along the River Dawa since May 8, which caused around 7,500 families to become displaced. Governmental officials increased the seasonal fatality total to 237 and estimated 161,000 homes were affected since April.

Wildfire (United States) Additional wildfires are expanding in southwestern Florida, as the Florida Forest Service continues to battle several wildfires that broke out last week in the Florida Panhandle. As of May 14, the 4,000-acre (1,618-hectar) combined 22nd Avenue and 36th Avenue Fire is currently burning in Collier County, with reports of multiple homes damaged or destroyed near Golden Gates Estates. These fires have prompted additional evacuation orders, and closed portions of I-75. As of this writing, substantial progress has been made in the Panhandle; the 5 Mile Swamp Fire in Santa Rosa County is 2,215 acres and 97% contained, while the Hurst Hammock Fire in Escambia County is 1,191 acres (482 hectares) and 98% contained. The 343-acre (139-hectare) Musset Bayou Fire in Walton County had thus far impacted 34 homes and was started due to illegal burning. This is a rapidly evolving situation, and damage estimates are currently ongoing, but likely to be in the millions (USD). 

Weekly Cat Report 12

Global Temperature Anomaly Forecast

Source: Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

Weekly Cat Report 13

Global Precipitation Forecast

Source: Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA

Weekly Cat Report 14

Weekly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies (°C)

The SST anomalies are produced by subtracting the long-term mean SST (for that location in that time of year) from the current value. This product with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree (50 kilometers) is based on NOAA/NESDIS operational daily global 5 kilometer Geo-polar Blended Night-only SST Analysis. The analysis uses satellite data produced by AVHRR radiometer.

Select Current Global SSTs and Anomalies Location of Buoy Temp (°C) Departure from Last Year (°C)

Eastern Pacific Ocean (1,020 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) 28.1 +0.7

Niño3.4 region (2°N latitude, 155°W longitude) 25.8 -0.5

Western Pacific Ocean (700 miles NNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands) 30.4 +0.4

Sources: ESRL, NOAA, NEIS, National Data Buoy Center

Weekly Cat Report 15

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present. NOAA notes that there is a roughly 60 percent chance of neutral conditions lingering through the Northern Hemisphere (boreal) summer months. The agency further states it is more than likely that such conditions will last through the boreal autumn.

El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures (+0.5°C) that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle. La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures (-0.5°C) across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle.

El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.

ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average.

El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above the threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C). This standard of measure is known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).

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Source: NOAA

Weekly Cat Report 16

Global Tropics Outlook

Source: Climate Prediction Center

Weekly Cat Report 17

Current Tropical Systems

Location and Intensity Information Name* Location Winds Storm Reference from Land Motion**

TY Vongfong 12.8°N, 123.3°E 75 mph 225 miles (365 kilometers) southeast of Manila, Philippines W at 12 mph

* TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone ** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest

Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Weekly Cat Report 18

Global Earthquake Activity (≥M4.0): May 8-14

Significant EQ Location and Magnitude (≥M6.0) Information Date (UTC) Location Magnitude Depth Epicenter

05/12/2020 12.11°S, 166.57°E 6.6 112 km 17 kilometers (11 miles) SSE of Lata, Solomon Islands

Source: United States Geological Survey

Weekly Cat Report 19

U.S. Weather Threat Outlook

Potential Threats Heavy rainfall is expected for a large portion of the Northeast May 16-19, including the Mid-Atlantic

and central Appalachians as an anomalous upper level low progresses from the Great Lakes toward the coast.

A noticeable pattern change will lead to much above normal temperatures for the Central and Northern

Plains between May 18-20, the result of a large high-pressure ridge progressing eastward from the Rockies.

Flooding is possible over portions the Mid-west and central Mississippi Valley due to recent rounds of

storms and heavy precipitation. An intensifying trough over the West Coast is anticipated to bring heavy rainfall to northern California

and southwestern Oregon May 16-18. By mid-week the threat for heavy rain will spread across the northern Rockies from Idaho into Montana.

Weekly Cat Report 20

U.S. Wildfire: Significant Fire Risk Outlook & Activity The National Interagency Fire Center has highlighted an extended risk of elevated wildfire conditions across parts of the Desert Southwest, Plains, Southeast, and the Midwest into the second half of May. Continued fire risk will persist in Florida, Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma; where wildfires are currently burning as of this writing.

Annual YTD Wildfire Comparison: May 14* Year Number of Fires Acres Burned Acres Burned Per Fire

2016 17,568 1,513,124 86.13

2017 22,129 2,100,064 94.90

2018 21,196 1,475,722 69.62

2019 12,364 223,675 18.09

2020 14,887 324,510 21.80

10-Year Average (2010-2019) 19,564 960,295 49.08

*Last available update from NIFC Source: National Interagency Fire Center

Top 5 Most Acres Burned by State: May 14 State Number of Fires Acres Burned Acres Burned Per Fire

Oklahoma 526 74,815 142.23

Texas 1,072 50,348 46.97

Florida 1,377 42,723 31.03

Arizona 386 39,721 102.90

Kansas 34 21,796 641.06

Source: National Interagency Fire Center

Weekly Cat Report 21

Current U.S. Streamflow Status

A ≥99th percentile indicates that estimated streamflow is greater than the 99th percentile for all days of the year. This methodology also applies for the other two categories. A steam in a state of severe drought has 7-day average streamflow of less than or equal to the 5th percentile for this day of the year. Moderate drought indicates that estimated 7-day streamflow is between the 6th and 9th percentile for this day of the year and ‘below normal’ state is between 10th and 24th percentile.

Top 5 Rivers Currently Nearing or Exceeding Flood Stage Location Flood Stage (ft) Current Stage (ft) % of Full Capacity

Tobesofkee Creek near Macon, Georgia 6.43 6.35 99%

Waterman Canyon Creek near Arrowhead Springs, California 4.81 4.74 99%

Castle Creek near Deerfield, South Dakota 3.76 3.71 99%

Addison Creek at Bellwood, Illinois 5.38 5.30 99%

Flag Creek near Willow Springs, Illinois 3.35 3.30 99%

Source: United States Geological Survey

Weekly Cat Report 22

Source Information Multiple SCS events bring more U.S. hail & wind damage U.S. Storm Prediction Center U.S. National Weather Service

Vongfong strikes the Philippines; first 2020 WPAC landfall Joint Typhoon Warning Center Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Center

Parts of Europe affected by severe weather Hail damages some 6000 hectares in the Region of Valencia, Fresh Plaza Meteo France

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Landslide Kills 12 In SNNP Regional State. Fana BC Provincial Steering Committee of Information, Fire and Rescue, Vietnam Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) Kenya Red Cross Floodlist India Meteorological Department, Lucknow South Walton Fire District, United States Greater Naples Fire Rescue District, United States Collier County Emergency Management, United States Florida Forest Service, United States

Weekly Cat Report 23

Contact Information Steve Bowen Director & Meteorologist Head of Catastrophe Insight Impact Forecasting Aon steven.bowen@aon.com Michal Lörinc Senior Catastrophe Analyst Impact Forecasting Aon michal.lorinc@aon.com

Weekly Cat Report 24

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